Looking for patterns - page 8

 
Aleksei Stepanenko:

And I urge everyone, don't be shy. Nothing is secret, everything is stolen before us.

More to the point: who's the one to steal from? We, as users, are all in the same boat. And winning a couple of battles in this field is much more possible if we pool our capabilities. rather than building ourselves into unique generators of success.

 
Vitaliy Maznev:

Right

 
Aleksei Stepanenko:
Hey, fellas! I suggest we all share the patterns we've found.

No problem, I found this one, if any oscillator is overbought or oversold it doesn't mean anything

 

Hello gentlemen! I see you're finally an adequate forum member :-)

Permission to insert my nickel?

There are a lot of regularities in market charts. It's true they do not always repeat. But they should be. Otherwise forex would not be available to all.

Our task is to correctly apply the necessary pattern at the right time. More precisely, we must be able to distinguish speculative movements from the fundamental ones.

Then the choice will be easier and it will be possible to apply the pattern correctly.

 
Uladzimir Izerski:

More specifically, you have to be able to distinguish between speculative movements and fundamental ones.

That's an interesting idea. And how do you distinguish one from the other? And what reactions are adequate for each of the two?

 
Aleksei Stepanenko:
Maxim, great!

Give details, details. That's interesting. Because general concepts can be discussed, but not applied. But how, who and what does what, calculations, concrete experience - this can already be developed, maybe some ideas will emerge. Let's discuss them together. I am ready to share my thoughts.


And I urge everyone, don't be shy. Nothing is secret, everything has been stolen before us.

Did it on the basis of the zigzag. Did some research on several currency pairs and got different results. I realised that the characteristic changes over time and from instrument to instrument. I cannot predict this change because I was not able to develop a full-fledged theory. That's why I rejected this implementation.
The reasons: the zigzag itself is some algorithm that is applied to a chart, and we are measuring not the market regularities, but the behavior of this algorithm in the market. The pattern is not stable, and I was looking for a fundamental pattern.
So next I started to develop other methods of price discretization, which can be fitted into some theory and parallel mathematical definition of the trend.
 
Vitaliy Maznev:

That's an interesting idea. How do you distinguish one from the other? And what are the appropriate reactions for each of the two options?

What do firms that need currency do? They apply to a bank.

How do banks behave? They have requests for hard currency and try to buy at the best price, sell for more. The delivery will take place tomorrow, maybe a week later.

Speculative deals and fundamental ones are just as vague as the patterns, but they add up in pieces.

I have detected such a pattern. I take five currencies and calculate the behaviour of ten pairs of those currencies.

This will characterize the demand for the currency. The rest is a matter of technique.

Each currency has its own value. First of all we need to know whether the currency is falling or rising. The pair is of secondary importance.

This is what such a construction looks like on the Pound/Dollar pair on the hour.

Demand for the pound has reached the limit and started to fall, while speculators or firms were still buying.

GBPUSD_H1

 
Uladzimir Izerski:

Demand for the pound had reached a breaking point and started to fall, while speculators or firms were still buying.


Really a no-nonsense approach and as sensible as possible at the same time. But how can you draw conclusions as to what someone is actually buying? Couldn't it be that the quotes are sometimes just bluntly drawn? I find it hard to imagine more or less large investors who can really make a difference and who, even with insider data, would take that much risk at times like this.

 
Uladzimir Izerski:

Hello gentlemen! I see you're finally an adequate forum member :-)

Permission to insert my nickel?

There are a lot of regularities in market charts. It's true they do not always repeat. But they should be. Otherwise forex would not be available to all.

Our task is to correctly apply the necessary pattern at the right time. More precisely, we must be able to distinguish speculative movements from the fundamental ones.

Then the choice will be easier and it will be possible to apply the pattern correctly.

The patterns are only in your head. Not in real life
 

Demand, like rain outside, can be weak, moderate or strong.

Demand is not concentrated at one point, so no one will be able to pull the blanket over themselves).

No one will draw. It can come out to its own detriment. A vacuum is quickly filled.

In fact, the pattern of price behaviour can be seen in such a method.

The value of a currency is bounded and cannot fall or rise indefinitely. Unlike a currency pair.