Looking for patterns - page 13
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Here and earlier in the frequency graph, the data should be interpreted as follows: the frequency of values in the interval between 0 and 5 points per hour is 37 per cent. That is, it is an interval in which 5 is the end of the interval.
It turns out that the price movement speed is basically 5-10 pips per hour. You can build trend lines in advance by calculating the slope angle of the channel based on these values.
Specifically I find your research genius. Unfortunately I am a dilettante and I am not a technical expert. But as a dilettante, I somehow see such research as a platform for a revolution in auto-trading. I myself believe that such things have already been implemented and even more so. But not at the user level.
This is a common statistic and it seems I have made a mistake. The first wave in a trend has no point of separation of the useful part from the full. And there are many more first waves on the history than all the others. I will exclude the first wave and recalculate everything. It seems the rate of useful movement should be higher.
For waves following the first wave, there is a point after which a useful movement begins. This is the end price of the previous wave. But for the first wave, there is no such point.
For waves following the first wave, there is a point after which a useful movement begins. This is the end price of the previous wave. But for the first wave, there is no such point.
It is logical to consider variations on the point of cancellation of a useful movement.
It is logical to consider options for the point of cancellation of useful motion.
Where is the cancellation? If the price has already peeked beyond the shadow of the previous extremum, the movement has already started.
Where is the cancellation? If price has already peeked beyond the shadow of the previous extremum, the move has already started.
In your example it hasn't. But in general, the movement cannot last forever. In many other examples, it may be false. As a result, a bounce occurs. And the rebound can be either a correction within the movement or a reversal.
I am sorry, I am not a very good artist. But the point is that having defined the variants of the movement continuation it is logical to define the variants of its cancellation. Let's assume that the percentage of such variants is less. But for full-fledged analysis they should be taken into account.
Vitaly, there is just such an example in the picture here. The second wave jumped out at point A, from this point we know that it exists. It has a long enough portion in the shadow of the previous wave and a small tail of forward movement. Then the price went backwards, but that does not cancel the second wave, it has already registered at point A. After some time, the price passed at point B below, and we just add forward movement. If price had gone up after point A for good, then the second wave would have been the last in this trend down with a small bump of movement
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Vitaly, there is such an example in the picture. The second wave has popped out at point A, from this point we know that it exists. It has a rather long portion in the shadow of the previous wave and a small tail of a forward movement. Then the price went backwards, but that does not cancel the second wave, it has already registered at point A. After a while the price passed at point B below, and we are just adding to the forward movement. If price had gone up after point A for good, then the second wave would have been the last in this trend down with a small bump of movement
In other words, Alexey, are you insisting that this pattern is absolute and could not have been different under any circumstances (meaning when the extremum does rewrite, but only by a couple of pips and then reverses)?
Maybe we have a misunderstanding as a result of the fact that in this example you regard the statistics simply as a story. What I am trying to say is that in order to make a forecast we should study not only the patterns that were completed successfully, like yours, but also the patterns where the movement was interrupted in some way breaking the pattern. As a result of aggregate data we may already have a TS capable of prognosis and not just statistics.
In other words,
Undo waves would be necessary if we were declaring a wave somewhere on the pullback of the first wave. Then yes, if price had gone up with a slight zigzag down, we would have been forced to admit that we had misidentified it and there was no second wave. But we have chosen as the criterion the registration of a wave at the point of overlap of the previous extremum. This extremum is the lowest point of the entire downward trend. Therefore, by overlapping it, the price confirms the continuation of the downward trend. Therefore, the wave cannot be cancelled because it now has the lowest trend point.
That is, no new trend update - no new wave, although price can wriggle horizontally for a long time.
It's not a downward wave: