FOREX - Trends, Forecasts and Implications (Episode 16: June 2012) - page 164
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price movement relative to the morning tale (white)...zigzag (red) to illustrate peaks and troughs...
I have nothing to do tomorrow, I'll go and have a look at this zoo))))
Half-dead buyers))))
The difference between the futures and the pair is now 11ppt.
Hello
It's been a while since I visited you.... Reason - a lot of rubbish and nonsense in the thread, but most importantly I have hardly made any trades in the last two weeks due to the lack of clarity about the euro/dollar trend.
Here's the question I got on Skype about the Euro/Dollar pair: "...is there optimism to go down in price or is everything as dumb as a tank?"
As I have been asked a similar question by several people at once, I decided to answer it in an open review.
Not "dumb", but unclear, uncertain. Lately we have seen a chaotic tossing of the Euro/Dollar chart as a consequence of the uncertainty of the trend direction.
On the one hand, the Euro should fall due to such economic indicators as a general decline of the European economy; a failed bond placement by Spain and Italy; rating agencies downgrade not only Spain, Holland and Italy banks, but also threaten to downgrade Eurozone countries once again; rising bond yields of France and even Germany (the last bastion of stability in Europe), which means that German debts grow as well; complete absence of any ECB stimulation activity; Spain, and after it - the Inc. Looking at these above facts, we can clearly say that the Euro is worthless and should go Euro-asshole, i.e. down! But the bastard manages to grow against all odds! Yes. The currency is political. A prostitute currency. No serious basis - one pretty piece of paper and promises. Empty promises of some authoritative figures keep the euro-paper afloat. But is that all? What is the secret of the buoyancy of this crap (in the sense of the euro)?
Consider the other side. USA. The US economy has been growing steadily for a long time out of the crisis, thanks to the sound stimulus policy of the Fed. However, this growth has slowed down recently, mainly due to the falling economy in Eurozone and some domestic factors. However, it is still good news and that should make you happy. It is not. Lets not go back too far and have a look at the economic factors of the last two weeks that prevented the USD to rise against the hated EUR: a slight drop in retail sales figures and an increase (also not a big one) in jobless claims, i.e. a slight rise in unemployment. Also I think the huge dollar interventions by the Russian Central Bank had a bit of an impact. AND THAT'S IT! And why would the dollar fall against the paper euro? First, there was a rumor last week (just a rumor) that the FedReserve might start another round of quantitative easing, i.e. print some dollars to stimulate the economy. It was not confirmed, but the effect was immediate. Weird. Then the oil price went up a bit in anticipation of the OPEC meeting, as if the quotas will be lowered and oil will go up, which is bad for the dollar. Oil rose on expectations, the dollar fell, OPEC did not cut the quotas but even tried to raise them, but trading closed before the end of the meeting and nothing changed. Friday's start of trading, as we can see, also gives a slight rise in the euro, which is not logical.Why, in spite of such different economic indicators in favour of the Dollar, the bloated Euro continues to be higher and still periodically pulls down the stoplosses of honest bears? Is someone benefiting from this? Hmmm.... Possibly. There's this notion that the US doesn't benefit from a weak Euro and a weak Europe and the US FedReserve is doing everything to support it. Well that explains a lot.....
So what's left for poor currency speculators in forex? Work only on the basis of technical analysis? Effective, but not always! Because losses from an unexpected trend reversal on the news can be greater than the income from the technical strategy.
That's why my strategy is purely technical, but taking into account the whole news flow, so it brings a slightly smaller, but absolutely guaranteed profit. I cut out the guaranteed pieces of the trend. And it doesn't matter whether it is bearish or bullish....
As for further developments on the Euro/Dollar pair, they depend on the outcome of the Greek election on the 17th (this Sunday), the Eurozone summit and the US FerReserve meeting (To print or not to print?). That is, the next week or two will tell. In the meantime, the Euro currency will be sluggishly risen and fall in the sideways trend of the range 1.26700 - 1.24355, with a slight upward bias, on the expectations. Depending on the decisions it will jump up or down. For example if the Greek party of Tsipras takes the majority, the eurik could collapse to 1.2300 and below.... at the same time, but if the FedReserve prints some dollars after that, it will crawl back to 1.27 and above. You have to watch it all tirelessly and always be on top of it, quickly swapping bull horns for bear skin....
Bye guys! Have a great weekend!
I'm not writing a trendostich as I'm not inspired. I've got a cold. Sick. I've got colds. J
Half-dead buyers))))
The difference between the futures and the pair is now 11ppt.
It's a shame to read that ))))
Half-dead buyers))))
The difference between the futures and the pair is now 11ppt.
Hello
It's been a while since I visited you.... Reason - a lot of rubbish and nonsense in the thread, but most importantly I have hardly made any trades in the last two weeks due to the lack of clarity about the euro/dollar trend.
Here's the question I got on Skype about the Euro/Dollar pair: "...is there optimism to go down in price or is everything as dumb as a tank?"
As I have been asked a similar question by several people at once, I decided to answer it in an open review.
Not "dumb", but unclear, uncertain. Lately we have seen a chaotic tossing of the Euro/Dollar chart as a consequence of the uncertainty of the trend direction.
On the one hand, the Euro should fall due to such economic indicators as a general decline of the European economy; a failed bond placement by Spain and Italy; rating agencies downgrade not only Spain, Holland and Italy banks, but also threaten to downgrade Eurozone countries once again; rising bond yields of France and even Germany (the last bastion of stability in Europe), which means that German debts grow as well; complete absence of any ECB stimulation activity; Spain, and after it - the Inc. Looking at these above facts, one can clearly say that the Euro is worthless and should go Euro-asshole, i.e. down! But the bastard manages to grow against all odds! Yes. The currency is political. A prostitute currency. No serious basis - one pretty piece of paper and promises. Empty promises of some authoritative figures keep the euro-paper afloat. But is that all? What is the secret of the buoyancy of this crap (in the sense of the euro)?
Consider the other side. USA. The US economy has been growing steadily for a long time out of the crisis, thanks to the sound stimulus policy of the Fed. However, this growth has slowed down recently, mainly due to the falling economy in Eurozone and some domestic factors. However, it is still good news and that should make you happy. It is not. Lets not go back too far and have a look at the economic factors of the last two weeks that prevented the USD to rise against the hated EUR: a slight drop in retail sales figures and an increase (also not a big one) in jobless claims, i.e. a slight rise in unemployment. Also I think the huge dollar interventions by the Russian Central Bank had a bit of an impact. AND THAT'S IT! And why would the dollar fall against the paper euro? First, there was a rumor last week (just a rumor) that the FedReserve might start another round of quantitative easing, i.e. print some dollars to stimulate the economy. It was not confirmed, but the effect was immediate. Weird. Then the oil price went up a bit in anticipation of the OPEC meeting, as if the quotas will be lowered and oil will go up, which is bad for the dollar. Oil rose on expectations, the dollar fell, OPEC did not cut the quotas but even tried to raise them, but trading closed before the end of the meeting and nothing changed. Friday's start of trading, as we can see, also gives a slight rise in the euro, which is not logical.Why, in spite of such different economic indicators in favour of the Dollar, the bloated Euro continues to be higher and still periodically pulls down the stoplosses of honest bears? Is someone benefiting from this? Hmmm.... Possibly. There's this notion that the US doesn't benefit from a weak Euro and a weak Europe and the US FedReserve is doing everything to support it. Well that explains a lot.....
So what's left for poor currency speculators in forex? Work only on the basis of technical analysis? Effective, but not always! Because losses from an unexpected trend reversal on the news can be greater than the income from the technical strategy.
That's why my strategy is purely technical, but taking into account the whole news flow, so it brings a slightly smaller, but absolutely guaranteed profit. I cut out the guaranteed pieces of the trend. And it doesn't matter whether it is bearish or bullish....
As for further developments on the Euro/Dollar pair, they depend on the outcome of the Greek election on the 17th (this Sunday), the Eurozone summit and the US FerReserve meeting (To print or not to print?). That is, the next week or two will tell. In the meantime, the Euro currency will be sluggishly risen and fall in the sideways trend of the range 1.26700 - 1.24355, with a slight upward bias, on the expectations. Depending on the decisions it will jump up or down. For example if the Greek party of Tsipras takes the majority, the eurik could collapse to 1.2300 and below.... at the same time, but if the FedReserve prints some dollars after that, it will crawl back to 1.27 and above. You have to watch it all tirelessly and always be on top of it, quickly swapping bull horns for bear skin....
Bye guys! Have a great weekend!
I'm not writing a trendostich as I'm not inspired. I've got a cold. Sick. I've got colds. J
Read it carefully. You can see the shortcomings of teachers - a lot of emotions)))
The market is not politics or economics, but pure speculation, I'll say nothing about the global economy, the current economic model is a complete asshole, and the U.S. is ahead of the world in it))))
As for the euro, everything is clear. They are buying it, if they stop I will tell them. Technical analysis is a dead end, it is not worth using.
Get well.
No one was buying it, it was being shorted all week (it was rising on closing short positions).... and there is unlikely to be any clarity after the election...
+1...at least someone is in the know ))))
No one was buying it, the shorts have been fixing it all week.... and it's unlikely there will be any clarity after the election...
Hello our conscience, good to see)))
Closing the sell=bye.
Hello,
It's been a while since I've visited ..... The reason is there's been a lot of flurry and nonsense in the thread.
and now the ruler has come down to us
♪ and with a sneer he looks at this flood ♪
♪ told the speculators to shut up ♪
♪ and rest on the fence ♪