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Nah, no luck... I loved them... I had a few of them living in a jar... even each one had its own name) True, it was not in Belarus, but in Alma-Ata. ...
Having your own bank in Almaty, even with cockroaches, is not bad :)
Having your own bank in Almaty, even with cockroaches, is not bad :)
Continued. For a fair coin, the average number of its rolls to the first coat of arms (before the virtual deposit is drained) is 2. (Details of the calculations here: http://www.dartmouth.edu/~chance/teaching_aids/books_articles/probability_book/Chapter6.pdf)
Our coin is not fair, because due to the spread - which we take as 10% of the corridor - the probability of reaching the take is less than the stop and is approximately equal to 0.45. The stop in our case is the crest.
Our coin will have 1.8 rolls - MO number of steps before the virtual depo is drained. Let's round it up to 2 for simplicity.
This means that having a virtual depo equal to 1, profit before the first take equal to 1, with successive take and stop (2 steps), on the real depo we will have:
- 1 - 2 spreads = -1 - 0.2 = -1.2.
+ (1 - 2 spread)*2 = (1 - 0.2)*2 = 0.8*2 = 1.6
-1,2 + 1,6 = 0,4.
So, from the withdrawal of virtual deposits we have the average profit of 0.4 for 2 steps on the real account.
Thus, for example in order to double 10 000 on real, we have to drain 10 000 / 0,4 = 25 000 virtuals.
In doing so, we consider the probability that the virtual will not reach 10,000, otherwise the real will be drained. Put this calculation into the table...
I don't understand where doubling is going to come from on the real depo? You can't, on the basis that average play to ruin=2, just double up without taking probabilities into account.
If we have a hundred on the virtual, we play for everything. If we are losing from the first transaction, the real +100 (without taking into account the spread). If we win, then the virtual +200, and the real X-100. Now we play for 200. Withdraw the virtual, the real X-100+200=X+100. If we win on the virtual, then the real X-300, and the virtual +400. Play for 400. Losing a virtual, the real X-300+400 = X+100, ie, as in the simple martin on the real no doubling, but there is an increase in the initial deposit size in each series, until the deposit is not lost
I have to take into account the possibility of losing the real deposit, but otherwise, of course any martin in the chocolates))
For example, virtual 100 and real 300 (for ease of account :)). The table becomes:
0.5 +100
0.5^2 +100
0.5^2 -300
Calculate MO: 0.5*100+0.25*100-0.25*300=50+25-75=0
And so for any size of the real depot and any number of games. Where is the profit? :)
2Avals It's not about statistics, it's about the fact that you don't understand where the profit will come from on the real. We dump the virtual account and mirror the real one by the virtual's value. I can not explain, there is the whole thread about it and you do not understand :-) Well, okay, here's an example. If we have lost 100 - we have poured 100 on the real account and if the virtual does not want to withdraw, then the real is in drawdown. That is enough to start with. Learn the lessons.
You're bad at arithmetic, I get it ;). Calculate step by step the probabilities of how much is being drained and how much is being poured into them.
You're bad at arithmetic, I get it ;) Calculate the probabilities step by step with probabilities of how much is being deducted and how much is being added
it is considered the probability of losing a deposit from 100 to zero, it does not matter what the deposit becomes after a few wins, the important thing is that it was 100 at the beginning.
There is a model in mql4, check it and see what's what.
Read the thread before you judge and you shall not be judged.
I'll shoot myself before.
I'll shoot myself before.
Nah, no luck... I used to love them... I had several ones living in a jar... each of them even had a name)... True, it wasn't in Belarus but in Alma-Ata...
In some of our pet shops they sell Jungar cockroaches, inexpensive for about 2 c.u. I think you should have them
When you touch them, they hiss noisily.