FOREX - Trends, Forecasts and Implications (Episode 5: July 2011) - page 210
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According to analysts, Ukraine's budget deficit is on track to shrink substantially in 2011. In addition, the ratings increase is due to the fact that in July this year the country's government received approval from Parliament for an unpopular pension reform
Fitch notes that the Ukrainian government has made progress towards reducing the overall budget deficit from 7.9% last year to 4% of GDP in 2011. However, covering losses of the state-owned oil and gas company Naftogaz Ukrainy could lead to an increase in the consolidated total state budget deficit by at least 0.5% of GDP.
The agency forecasts that the country's overall public debt should stabilize at around 30% of GDP by the end of the year unless further recapitalization of the banking sector is required.
Fitch forecasts growth of 4-5% in 2011-2012, following a 4.2% upturn in 2010. At the same time, analysts note that a weak business climate constrains economic growth. "The Ukrainian banking system remains under pressure, but asset quality, which suffered severe recession and devaluation in 2008-2009, has stabilised," Fitch said.
In addition, according to the rating agency's analysts, external finance remains a key factor in the vulnerability of the Ukrainian economy. The country has large external financing needs and faces increasing IMF repayments in 2012 and 2013.
Continued solid growth without macroeconomic imbalances and improvements in the banking sector, further progress in reducing the budget deficit, and the resolution of medium-term difficulties in public finance could lead to an upgrade. At the same time, there are risks that could lead to negative rating action, including the risk of significant fiscal loosening ahead of the 2012 parliamentary elections, a marked deterioration in the external environment, or domestic political turmoil.
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Ukraine will save Greece )))
Ukraine will save Greece ))))
Probably.....:-)
First swallow ))))) Jena is starting to run out of steam ))))
A question for you: How is Ukraine, apart from the fact that you are from Ukraine?
A question for you: How is Ukraine, apart from the fact that you are from Ukraine?
I live in this country too, but I am not seeing any progress.
In my view audi/bucks is preparing for a jump of about 400-500 pips. (for the movers and shakers)
half way through, about 200 pips to go.
I live in this country too, but I am not seeing any progress.
maybe it was just an impression...?
Just the beginning of the end of the bearish trend )))) But I'm waiting for a further fall to the first reversal level )))