Strategic foresight systems - page 19
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The likelihood of a rate hike is high, but not a hundred percent. Besides Trichet said that they will not be the first to raise the rate. The question then is after whom? Does anyone have an idea? Have a say.
In my mind, the foundation is precisely one of the main topics of this thread. Only I would like to pay attention to the evidence base. I once did an express survey and did not see any correlations or influences. I want to repeat it, but take my time and try to use Bayesian loci (among other things). Once built a database for this purpose, but a couple of attacks of microbes ate everything (and the base and sources). Now stuck on collecting, trying to at least remember the sources.
No one can remember where to get them? :о(
In any case, it is impossible to cover the entire spectrum of influences on the behaviour of exchange rates by yourself or even by a small group.
There is not only a fundamental or speculative component to consider, but the most important one is the settlement of supply of goods and services and its seasonality. All of this is complicated. For us the more acceptable way of market analysis is the TA with its disadvantages and with a very rough representation of the FA.
The basis of the analysis is always FA, and TA only fills in the pores.
In any case, it is impossible to cover the entire spectrum of influences on the behaviour of exchange rates by yourself or even by a small group.
There is not only a fundamental or speculative component to consider, but the most important one is the settlement of supply of goods and services and its seasonality. All of this is complicated. For us the more acceptable way of market analysis is TA with its disadvantages and with a very rough representation of FA.
You don't have to do everything, it is enough to highlight the main ones or to understand the "level" which information can be simply ignored (which is already important). It is necessary to be sure that what you use really works and is not written in unnecessary books.
The basis of analysis is FA, ...
I agree, FA is the "physics of the process", but I want to understand this "physics". Old studies really "scared" me (in a sense). People (I mean theoreticians-analysts and pysicians) puff their cheeks up, talk about some connections while these connections, influences and dependencies do not exist at all! And if they really exist, the important question is "how much?", that is a quantitative assessment of the phenomenon.
The real trader plays his own game (this is the key word), he gets pleasure from it, he may risk something, he releases adrenaline. He has his own logic and life's truth. But we must get to the bottom of it, I have big plans (hopes) :o).
And TA just fills in the pores.
I am an irreconcilable opponent of TA (I became one a long time ago), but ... But we are all equal before the market and I always read with respect the forecasts of practitioners :o)
It is very difficult to quantify the rise/fall from the FA and the TA can help. The trigger for TA is the FA. Everything is interconnected. I prefer a combined scheme with simple logic.
I'm an irreconcilable opponent of TA (have been for a long time).
Maybe you shouldn't be. With the help of TA with some training it is possible to trade with some skill or virtuosity. 100 profitable trades in a row is not a problem, and with random inputs even thirty will be unattainable.
Changes as of early Wednesday.
Changes as of early Thursday.
Does anyone remember where to get one? :о(
http://www.finam.ru/analysis/macroevent/default.asp?str=2&ind=591×tep=1&dind=0
http://www.alpari.ru/ru/calendar/
Changes as of early Friday. Field tests show that the model in use is behaving inadequately.
I'm taking time out to establish the reasons and refine it. We may have to introduce a second model, and choose
the necessary one as the calculation proceeds.
Changes as of early Friday. Field tests show that the model in use is behaving inadequately.
I'm taking time out to establish the reasons and refine it. We may have to introduce a second model, and choose
the necessary one as the calculation proceeds.
are you forecasting the midpoint of the day for the week ahead?
are you forecasting the midpoint of the day for the week ahead?