Strategic foresight systems - page 50
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Viteek:
If, however, you have considerations about the distribution of the error within the confidence interval, then you can refine the system and narrow the confidence interval. But that would be a different system.
Good idea, as I have directly the probability density distribution itself inside the confidence interval at each prediction step, but so far I haven't thought of using it in any way, just predicting the centre(not the mean) of the distribution(see that the intervals are asymmetric)). Of course if it has 2 or 4 modes on sides instead of one, or it's equal probability without pronounced probability density concentration, then maybe it's better not to trade such a prediction.
p.s. The prediction error of 400 pips turned out to be for 10 12-hour counts, i.e. trading not intraday, but within 5 days, but it's just an example, because I can choose any forecast horizon.