What happened to Doe last night? - page 8
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Я имел ввиду "за макроэкономику" - неокейнсианство там и т.д. По поводу же причин кризиса - (упрощенно) стимулирование спроса кредитной накачкой - основа и болезнь совр.экономики. Тут вроде понятно...
So my point is that modern economies and even domestic economies have become a series of macroeconomic indicators without real growth in consumption/production, although I do not have the necessary economic knowledge, but I will give a trivial example from the Russian average man who occasionally watches the news, and for some reason remembers them, in the style of zadachka :) :
problem: what is the profitability of share trading and dividends from shares of a loss-making organisation? - interesting answer in the form of: a positive return or negative?initial conditions:
- last year, the leader in the production of "buckets with bolts" - Avtovaz in all the news goes the leader of car sales, in second place after it Chevrolet, in third place Logan
- unprecedented injection of cash into the leading bucket-bolt producer, with nobody understanding these injections, but suspecting that they will save jobs (2009)
- another state program to stimulate people to buy cars - preferential car loans = increase in selling prices of cars (summer 2009)
- news about another state programme to incentivise people to buy cars - collection of old cars = sales of stale ones in warehouses, cars produced in 2008
- news about billions in losses at the end of last year (2010)
- news about upcoming job cuts (2010)
ZS: And the question is not about the crisis, but a simple understanding of the markets, whether stock or forex - modern markets are structured so that the next rebound in price will shoot up growth waves, and so to indulge in the hope of being able to predict the new price makes no sense, because the order of news will stimulate or wave or rebound, and the task of the trader is not to predict but simply to follow, but with forced stops in the news and rebuild his TS
As usual, politicians again blamed the traders for the collapse. Commissions were formed to conduct investigations. They are trying to call the profit from operations illegal. Merkel called traders "opponents". There's a cooler statement than that.
When politicians lied about the state of the economy, traders were buying. "Buy on rumour..." When it became obvious their words didn't match the numbers traders sold. "..., sell on the facts." Law of the market. The financial aces with politicians who instigated the situation turn the tables on the traders.
It was the same in 1907. And '29. And 2008. It's all in line with the script :)
Мне кажется, что сама возможность торговли индекса как самостоятельного инструмента - грубейшая ошибка финансовых органов, путающая между собой причины и следствия. И она дублируется во всех странах.
P.S. Можно составить синтетический индекс из акций этих 30 компаний и торговать этот портфель. Это нормально и не противоречит здравому смыслу.
Alexei, it is not the index itself that is traded, but the futures on it. And that futures is tightly correlated with the composite price of the portfolio of companies in the index itself. The correlation is provided by the arbitrageurs. So the index futures is this synthetic index you're talking about. There is nothing wrong with that.
Алексей, так ведь торгуется не сам индекс, а фьюч на него. И этот фьюч связан жесточайшей корреляцией с композитной ценой портфеля компаний, входящих в сам индекс. Корреляция обеспечивается арбитражёрами. Так что фьюч на индекс и есть этот синтетический индекс, о котором ты говоришь. Тут всё нормально.
That is what is most interesting, because it was not the indices that were trading, but the stocks, and many at the same time, which pulled the indices down! Look at the SP500 - it did not do too badly there either.And another thing... I read somewhere that there was an attempt to cancel trades results, but no reaction to it yet and unlikely to happen. But conclusions will probably be drawn. A tough decision and how? But towards tougher robotic trading, if that is possible.
NYSE chief operating officer Larry Leibowitz said all the major stock exchanges were holding a conference call with the Securities and Exchange Commission to discuss what happened. It was not immediately known if there would be a statement issued after the call to explain the day's events.
Nasdaq issued a statement two hours after the market closed saying it was canceling trades that were executed between 2:40 p.m. and 3 p.m. that it called clearly erroneous. It did not, however, mention a cause of the plunge.
Алексей, так ведь торгуется не сам индекс, а фьюч на него. И этот фьюч связан жесточайшей корреляцией с композитной ценой портфеля компаний, входящих в сам индекс. Корреляция обеспечивается арбитражёрами. Так что фьюч на индекс и есть этот синтетический индекс, о котором ты говоришь. Тут всё нормально.
Alexander, I know it's a fuchsbau. It doesn't change anything. A large sale of a futures could have been a trigger for wide market sales. Even the modest role of a trigger (= "control signal") is already a kind of opportunity to influence the share price of the thirties back through trading in that futures.
Don't you think this is absurd, an attempt to influence consequence over cause? And then the financiers of Wall Street, Europe and Asia try to figure out why financial curves don't correlate with real economic performance...