First sacred cow: "If the trend started, it will continue" - page 62
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Нет, не лучше, конечно.
Ждем продолжение (очередной срач?) в ветке "Вдогонку". Сам топикстартер обещал...
Do you mean the "interesting thoughts" thread? Please quote the author's "promises" to continue the topic :) Where did you get such a habit of speaking in riddles? :)
Когда-то смотрел на эти индюкаторы чуть ли не с благоговением. Но только до тех пор, пока не увидел их формулы.
А сейчас уже и формулы их забыл, не считая машек :)
There was a time when I had that kind of bullshit too. For example, a crossover between a wrist and a parabolic always (or almost always) indicates the last candle in a short-term trend. After that some pullback or even a significant break starts. The problem is that these crossovers can happen again and again. So what I did then. I built a fan from the point of intersection of the parabolic with the wave to the first point of the parabolic where the trend started. And then I watched the chart. The point that was later crossed by the sweep and parabolic and one of the rays of the fan was the exit point and a signal of trend end for me. After that the market usually changed its direction. I looked at it now. It seems to be still working. )))
Имеется в виду тема "интересные мысли"? Процитируйте, пожалуйста, "обещания" автора насчёт продолжения темы :) Откуда такая привычка загадками изъясняться? :)
Persecution mania and megalomania usually complement each other harmoniously.
Which, in fact, does not negate your greatness... :) Although, offensively enough, in this case it is not you who is persecuted. :)
The topic in question is called exactly that: "Follow-up". The topic is Svinozavr.
Имеется в виду тема "интересные мысли"? Процитируйте, пожалуйста, "обещания" автора насчёт продолжения темы :) Откуда такая привычка загадками изъясняться? :)
Magnatis, don't worry, I'm not going to bother you. You're just a newcomer here, and the "catch-up" thread has already gone viral for the first time.
And here's a typical situation (to continue the theme ;) - it has been marked, but will it continue?
MAHI is fascinating ;)
А вот типичная ситуация ( в продолжении темы ;) - обозначить-то обозначился, а вот продолжится ли?
МАХИ очаровывают ;)
If you are guessing whether it will last or not, then what kind of trend is it, it is pure randomiser.
Your chart clearly shows that at the moment "definitely started", the first "trend" has already ended, the second one is also close to ending.
Если ты гадаешь продлится или нет, то какой же это тренд, это чистый рандомайзер.
На твоём графике чётко видно, что в момент "точно начался", первый "тренд" уже закончился, второй тоже близок к завершению.
And here? ;)
Hi all! I think that when identifying a trend one should also take into account the time frame in which this "unidirectional" movement occurs.
For simple trend direction identification you can indeed use a simple swing (or a set of them) and trade in the direction of its direction (slope). It is clear that the mask is only a "result" of a previous price movement, but nevertheless...
Besides, I agree with forexigrok that indeed a simple rule "new high - new low" may be used to identify the trend:
My experience suggests that if a trend has started, it's better to follow it to the end, although not the fact that it will last....
If High and Low of the current bar are higher than those of the previous bar, the trend is upward, if less - downward. The subtle point - the appearance of the internal bar indicates the end of the trend, as well as changes in the dynamics of highs and lows of the bars ...
But with a small clarification - after the appearance of the inner bar(s) there is a situation of uncertainty (often a flat) in the future trend direction, after which the "trend" may reverse and continue (it can be visually observed on D1), to the next situation of uncertainty (consolidation or flat zone), etc.
To determine the subsequent direction of the swing after the flat, you can just use the "cumulative range of participants", as Avals repeatedly said.
А здесь? ;)
What's in here? The Wiener process is a special case of random walk. A random walk has a normal distribution. It would be strange to expect it to climb out of the bell of a normal distribution. Don't forget that the bell is constantly expanding, i.e. no matter how high the process goes, it can go even higher.
Shall we look for trends in random walk?
Что здесь? Винеровский процесс это частный случай случайного блуждания. Случайное блуждание имеет нормальное распределение. Было бы странно ожидать, что он вылезет из колокола нормального распределения. Не забывай, что колокол постоянно расширяется, т.е. как бы высоко не зашёл процесс, он может зайти ещё выше.
Будем искать тренды в случайном блуждании?
I've heard of the Wiener process, but the fact that the price is random is not believable to the mind... ;)
Thank God you haven't advised me to understand the Slutsky-Yule theorem in economics, so that I don't start applying BFP!