First sacred cow: "If the trend started, it will continue" - page 61
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The answer is "No" if one considers the ZigZag lines on history as trends. Even the zigzag itself knows this on this forum - hence it overdraws embarrassingly half
of the very trend it should testify.
IMHO the real indicator is the one that re-draws so it is not lagging and does not show us the events of the times of Nikolai 2. If about ZZ, I would put the problem: after the reversal in a given candle what is the probability that it is a trend: 0.1 or .5 or .9? This is a worthwhile question for any overcorrecting indicator.
ИМХО настоящий индикатор - это тот который перерисовывает, значит он не запаздывает и не показывает нам события времен Николая 2. Если о ZZ то я бы поставил задачу так: после появления разворота в данной свечке какова вероятность что это тренд: 0.1 ил .5 или .9? Это стоящий вопрос для любого перерисовывающего индикатора.
I agree with both points. I don't see a problem with redrawing. (:But ZigZag does!!:)
С обоими пунктами согласен. В перерисовке не вижу проблемы. (:Но ЗигЗаг видит!!:)
The "persecution" of redrawing indicators started at the instigation of Yury Reshetov.
//Atu him!!! ;)
I have been watching for two years how the idea of uselessness of re-drawing indicators is gaining popularity. It can almost be considered scientific. :) :)
The redraw hunt is certainly a witch hunt. Even in the tester it can be used, but wisely and sensibly.
Trouble is, all my latest workpieces don't want to be tested, much less optimised.
Безусловно, травля перерисовки - это охота за ведьмами. Даже в тестере ее можно юзать, только с умом и толком.
Беда в том, что все мои последние заготовки ну никак не хотят тестироваться - а тем более оптимизиться.
It's a technical problem. The poor turkeys are not to blame for anything. ;(
Меня интересует набор измеримых признаков, из которых я бы смог статистически достоверно сделать вывод о том что если я сейчас встряну, то вероятнее всего в будущем выиграю. Т.е. что с момента моего открытия и до закрытия будет попутный тренд.
If you draw a horizontal line through any price chart and get stuck at a price intersection with that line, you are likely to win in the future. But if the market hasn't come to where you wanted it to, that's the market's problem. TA offers the opposite concept. In idea all the indicators, especially those that require optimization - is a smug attempt to control the market and make it move where you want. They are just potential sinkers. Believe me, everyone has had these indicators for a long time, and everyone wants the same thing. Especially in forex, which is overflowing with technical traders. The whole thing has long been nothing more than a numbers war. Well, let's still say that a trend is some kind of deterministic price movement in one direction over a period of time. And let's look at a scalper with oscillators and Fibo levels, who nervously chews his nails, drilling his trailing stop with his eyes. And look at the respectable guy, who trades at 1:2-1:4 and lazily watches the weekly charts and various unemployment reports, which correlate quite well with the growth of base metal prices amid swine flu somewhere where neither we nor he will ever go. ))) What would be the trend for each of them? For the first one if a couple of hundreds of dollars from the deposit successfully moves to the account of a Pips dealer, and then ... We all know what will happen. For the second trader, the loss of the Pipser's deposit is what analysts call the return of the price to yesterday's level. There is a very simple rule of thumb, if most analysts think the strategy is profitable, then in fact it has long been unprofitable. The only way out is to forget everything you knew and studied and try to look at the market through the eyes of a beginner. They are usually lucky. )))
I almost agree. The only serious objection is that scaring people should be done in moderation. Otherwise it could start a big national shitstorm. Which, however, will maintain the popularity of the thread. :)
Once upon a time, I almost looked at these inducators with awe. But only until I saw their formulas.
And now I've forgotten their formulas, not counting the dummies :)
Actually there is a decent forecasting potential in the regular waving (SMA), but you need to extract it from there using strict mathematics, not graphical constructions. But that's a know-how for now.
2 Driver: It's not like there's much of a squabble in my threads...
Mathemat писал(а) >>
2 Driver: It's not like there's much fighting in my threads...
Wouldn't it be better if it started in some other one? ;)
No, not better, of course.
Waiting for a sequel (another shambles?) in the "Follow-up" thread. The topicstarter himself promised...