Crisis: Don't we care? - page 66
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That's where you're wrong, Europe has not been on the wagon for a long time.
sometime towards the end of 09.
The crisis hasn't really started yet. The U.S. economy is a third of
of the world economy, with its sovereign debt alone already approaching a quarter
of global GDP for the year, and with domestic corporate and bank debts
it is scary to even imagine. On top of that, they are now trying to put out the fire there
by pouring gasoline on the fire - pumping more and more quid into the economy.
Somewhere around a quarter of the more than 8,000 American banks may go bankrupt
. In 2008, 25 banks went bankrupt, in one first month
09. - 6, there is a domino principle at work here - every month the number of bank failures
in the USA will I think double or so and somewhere by the fall
they will start crumbling a dozen a day. That's when the climax of the
drama called the sinking of the Titanic will begin. To get a sense of the horror of what
will be happening you can already watch that episode in the film
"Titanic" where the ship is sinking.
The Russian economy is really minuscule compared to the US economy,
but we are connected to it - by the price of oil and investment capital.
So far, frightened capital is rushing out of all risky assets (including Russian equities) and hiding in the safe haven of financial
- US bonds, so the dollar is strengthening wildly.
But at the first suspicion of a possible US default (in one form or another)
the pullback will be no less, but rather more dramatic.
The perpetrators have been found, the problems have been exposed, the arguments and pleasantries have been exchanged... Perhaps it is time to shift the focus a bit towards finding a way out of the situation. Not a way out for us, it is most obvious, the possibility to diversify risks (all the available eggs in different baskets), but the search for a way out of the stalemate for the world economy. But I do not see how the situation can be fixed, and with what means... And that makes us very sad, if there is no way out even in theory or in our exuberant imagination, what is next for us? Does anyone see even a glimmer of hope?
The perpetrators have been found, the problems have been exposed, the arguments and pleasantries have been exchanged... Perhaps it is time to shift the focus a bit towards finding a way out of the situation. Not a way out for us, it is most obvious, the possibility to diversify risks (all the available eggs in different baskets), but the search for a way out of the stalemate for the world economy. But I don't see how the situation can be fixed... And that makes us very sad, if there is no way out even in theory or in our exuberant imagination, what is next for us? Does anyone see even a shadow of hope?
The de facto official and seemingly unrecognized, but nevertheless real superpower since Clinton's time is the Celestial Empire. Therefore, if one wants to diversify risks, one has to look in the direction of renminbi.
Once again, there are rumours from so-called "reliable" sources, according to which the Chinese government is considering pegging the renminbi to the price of gold. Rumours are unconfirmed, but nevertheless:
1. China has switched to settling accounts in renminbi with its immediate neighbours. If you look at a map, it is not difficult to see how much of the land area China and its immediate neighbours occupy and what the economic potential of that very land area is.
2. More than ever before the world economy needs a stable reserve currency. A return to the gold standard as a solution to the global crisis
3. China owns the largest share of the world's gold reserve
4. In many of the world's industries, China is beyond competition
5. Stable political power
6. Strict legislation
There is of course some obstacle in the form of China's obligations to the WTO. In other words, the renminbi has to be market regulated and therefore dependent on stock market sentiment. But on the other hand, who prevents the Chinese central bank from going to the exchange and buying gold when it falls in price, and selling it when it rises in price, for example, through futures (and central banks may intervene without informing anyone about it, i.e. completely incognito)? The averaging tactic for such an economy is realistic and it will not be applied to some secondary "securities", but to the precious metal, which can't damage the budget in any way. After all, if gold is expensive, then the printing press will be turned on. If it is cheap, the extra yuan is taken out of circulation.
Maybe some are still trying to find light at the end of the tunnel of the global crisis. But for me personally the bottom line is already clear.
And why is the attachment to gold a panacea and a step forward rather than backward? And why gold, why not diamonds, cubes of standard timber, fresh water, a square metre of standard housing, etc.?
At a time of instability there is a natural, animal desire to stop this mess and lean on something, something reliable, more reliable than any money, but I think it is an illusion, a lack of understanding of complex processes encourages the search for simple solutions.
And in China the process of job cuts is gaining momentum. According to my friends who have production or partners, there will be more closed businesses there than for the Americans. But this is not a statistic.
And why is the attachment to gold a panacea and a step forward rather than backward? And why gold, why not diamonds, cubes of standard timber, fresh water, a square metre of standard housing, etc.?
In times of instability there is a natural, animal desire to stop this mess and lean on something reliable, more reliable than any money, but to my mind it is an illusion, a lack of understanding of complex processes stimulates the search for simple solutions.
In China, the job cuts are gaining momentum. According to my friends who have businesses or partners in China, there will be more shutdowns than in the United States. But these are not statistics.
gold is the truth!!!
gold scientists have not yet learned how to synthesize it from lead
But you can synthesize the quid from paper and paint.
gold has limited reserves on earth and is produced less than wood.
diamonds may be energy intensive but they can synthesize them
and fresh water and the rest is not worth talking about.
By the way, there's a reason the FBI strangled it...
The crisis hasn't really even started yet. The U.S. economy is one-third
of the world economy, and their national debt alone is already close to a quarter
of global GDP in one year, and when you factor in domestic corporate and bank debt
it's scary to even think about. On top of that, they're now trying to put out the fire there
by pouring gasoline on the fire - pumping more and more quid into the economy.
The petrol thing is very vivid, but completely wrong, in the style of Channel One TV.
A financial crisis is a total distrust of each other by market players, when banks stop lending to each other and to anyone at all, because no one knows who will collapse next. The government of all normal countries gives money to banks at minimal interest rates (almost 0% now) - let them work, provide all payments, cheap credit to anyone who is ready to develop / expand / build something.
The economic crisis is a withdrawal of production.
Governments give money to industries that are losing sales and jobs, take the money and do something, introduce new models, build new facilities, keep workers busy, don't lay them off.
Governments give money to states and municipalities for infrastructure projects which in normal economic conditions they would not be able to organise. Take the money and build roads, bridges, hospitals. Everything is cheaper now, plenty of manpower, take advantage of the moment, build everything you have dreamed of for the last 50 years, create new jobs.
Governments stimulate the economy as much as they can to keep it moving. Without money the economy will go into hibernation altogether.
And, according to my feeling of those who have businesses or business partners in China, the number of closed businesses is higher than that of the americans. But it is not a statistic.
Naturally, it is more, as there has also been more production in China, including production aimed exclusively at the USA. In recent years, China has steadily increased its domestic consumption, but is still a long way from complete "self-consumption".
gold is true!!!
Gold scientists have not yet learned how to synthesize it from lead.
>> but you can synthesise quid from paper and paint.
Gold has limited resources on earth and is produced less than wood.
diamonds may be energy intensive but they can synthesize them
fresh water and the rest is not worth talking about.
I would like to add
it is easy ( not expensive ) to standardize, high cost density per volume, used in many industries, etc.
so what?
why can't a peg lead to another bubbling on one side or a stalling of economies on the other ?
credit is not an evil, but a useful tool.
I do not have enough information to objectively understand the reasons, but it seems to me that one of the reasons is that the monitoring of processes in economies is crooked or outdated in today's environment.
Roughly speaking, when before potential investors and donors visit a private clinic, doctors have the opportunity to run around the wards and shake the thermometers
gold is truth!!!