Software products from Piligrimm - page 12
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to mpeugep: maybe you should first look at the date of the post offering to sell ;)
small print - didn't notice ))))
How can I contact you about the indicators?
ansamolov@yandex.ru
I prepared this article for publication on 23-12-2010 on New Year's Eve. But since everyone is reviewing it and the New Year has already passed, I will add it as a comment to this discussion for now. My apologies if I've done something wrong.
-=-=--=
THIS CANNOT BE BECAUSE IT CANNOT BE IN GENERAL (ready for publication)
On New Year's Eve I would like to write a very brief note or article about something fantastic but not real, some kind of a dream for everyone who reads this forum and understands that it cannot be.
Because the obtained results turn our ideas about Forex market upside down, let's agree that we will perceive everything described below not other than a pre-New Year's fantasy on the subject of Forex. So, let us begin our fantasy story about events that could never take place, because they couldn't happen in principle.
One scientist lost his regular income due to financial crisis and his attention was attracted to Forex market as possible source of regular income.
He was not satisfied with the basics of trading, as well as with the results of already existing indicators, because they mainly reflected the current price and had very weak forecasting properties.
Therefore, he set an unrealistic goal - to create an indicator that would give a better idea of the trend at least one candle ahead, which would be already satisfactory for trading.
As a result of months of work, an indicator was created in May 2010, the mathematical apparatus of which took 42 pages of formulas in fine print. The resulting indicator surpassed even the expectations of its creator (I mean developer). Here are its characteristics:
1. It is able to prognose a trend change at each of 15 candles forward. It doesn't matter if they are one minute, one hour, one day or one month candles. The latest version of the indicator predicts 48 candles ahead.
2. Works on any financial instrument and any time frame.
3. Prediction error on 15 candles forward does not exceed 10%, and on 48 candles forward does not exceed 25%.
4. It shows equally clear, both trending price movements, as well as corrective.
5. Shows the trajectory of the 'centre of gravity of candles', each of the 15 candles ahead.
6. Indicator is not subject to broker`s manipulations with the quotes. The principle on which it is based filters such manipulations automatically.
7. Since the forecast that we see 15 candles ahead changes over time, so -1 candle becomes zero, and -2 candle becomes -1 and so on, then the erroneous result of the remote forecast is reduced to almost zero. The fact is that when you "move candles from the future to the present", the prediction either remains "fixed to each candle" and is held at each step of the approaching to us of a particular candle (which confirms the correctness of the prediction), or it is corrected at the next step of the shift schedule one candle to the left.
8. The accuracy of the forecast doesn't "fade" with time, like in all previously known forecast models. Whether on the 1st or on the 48th candle we have the same accuracy.
At present the indicator is under preliminary investigation, especially regarding the error probability issues. There is no clear answer to the question why you can get the forecast with 100% accuracy on 35-48 candlesticks, while on the 18th candlestick you can get the error. It is necessary to answer the question if the reason is in the data quality. The most interesting is the fact that if an error result appears, it "seems to stretch" 3-4 candlesticks in a row. A kind of error block.
What have we managed to find out with the help of this indicator?
First of all, the existing understanding of the market is wrong in principle. In particular, that the market is mainly the big players and banks that shape this market and are able to influence it. If it were true, then it would be impossible to predict the price movement 15 candles ahead with absolute accuracy. Therefore, we should accept the following concept as a working one:
"The market is a combination of big and small market participants, but it is an independent drifting and oscillating process WHICH "LIVES HIS OWN LIFE" and nobody among its participants can influence this inert and uncontrollable monster.
I had to observe the situation, quite recently, some days ago with a financial instrument FUNT-Yen, when the indicator said that the falling rate should happen on a certain candle, but the rate stood there unbreakably for another 8 hours (8-hour candles) and still .... collapsed. We think that the central banks artificially held the rate, but after the process of artificial support by injections into the market was over, the rate followed the forecasted collapse. We would like to draw your attention to our phrase "held firmly", as a proof of artificiality of this process, because in our opinion, it should have fluctuated at least somehow, but the fluctuations did not exceed one pip, which we think is not realistic for the real market conditions.
Sometimes we saw exorbitantly big candlesticks on charts, which did not correspond with the dynamics of the previous candlestick movement. Sometimes it was suggested that the broker could manipulate these prices. However, research of our indicator showed that these candlesticks should be present at this position and they were predicted to be 15 candlesticks ahead. Therefore, it is a normal market phenomenon.
Now about the brokerage business. This kind of business used to be considered a safe business. 95% of participants (traders) leave their deposits to a broker and from this amount they feed the remaining 5% and leave the lion's share to the broker. This indicator completely changes the situation for the broker. It allows you to put any broker in the world in a matter of months. Except for ECN/STP brokers, of course.
Such developments tend to affect the public interest and there are certain laws in all countries, which imply their protection. Therefore the name of the author of this article has been changed. In any case, the average forum user will never have access to all of this. The author of this article does not claim any fee as he does not need any money.
CONCLUSION. This is all a joke, gentlemen. A pre-New Year's fantasy. You know it can't be. And you're right, as always. Relax and get ready for the New Year. Good luck in the New Year!
But nevertheless, in conclusion I would like to ask just two questions:
1. Could such an indicator really be created?
2. In your opinion, what is its market value ?
Paul Tergeist
ENGLISH VERSION
THIS CAN NOT BE, BECAUSE THIS CAN NOT BE IN PRINCIPLE
I would like a New Year's Eve to write a very brief, or a story about something weird that is not real, a dream about a certain someone who reads this forum and understands that this cannot be.
Since the results flip upside down our understanding of the Forex market, then let's agree that we all perceive as described below, except as New Year fantasy on Forex .Thus, we begin our fantastic tale about the events that could never happen, because it could not be in principle.
One scientist, in times of financial crisis, has lost regular income and his attention was drawn to the Forex market as a potential source of permanent earnings.
Obtained by ABC for trading, he understood the results of existing indicators, it did not meet, as they mainly reflect the current price and had very poor predictive properties.
In this regard, it has set itself an unrealistic goal - to create an indicator that would somehow give a better idea of the trend, at least one bar forward, which would be satisfactory for the Forex trading.
As a result of many months of work in May 2010 was created an indicator, the mathematical basis of which occupyy 42 pages in small font formulas .The resulting indicator has surpassed all expectations of even the creator (ie the developer). Here are its features:
1. Capable to predict change in trend at each of the 15 future Bars. Regardless of whether it is minute Bars, hourly, daily or monthly. The latest version of the indicator predicts a 48 Bars price movement.
2. Works on any financial instrument, and on any time frame.
3. Inaccuracy of the forecast for a 15-future Bars is not more than 10% and 48 Bars does not exceed 25%.
4. Shows equally clearly trend of price movement, as well as corrective.
5. Shows the trajectory along which the "center of gravity of Bars - each of the 15 in the future.
6 .The indicator is not affected by the process of broker manipulation of quotes. The principle on which it is built automatically filters out such manipulations.
7 .Since the projection that we see on the 15 Bars ahead in time, so -1 candle becomes zero and -2 candle becomes -1, and so on, then the removal of wrong predictions reduced to almost zero. The fact that the "movement of Bars from the future into the present, prediction results, or all time remains" attached to each Bar, "and held at each step closer to us of a Bar (which confirms the correctness of the prediction), or adjusted by thenext step of the shift schedule to a Bar left.
8 .Forecast accuracy is not quenched "since, as in all previously known predictive models. In each of 48 Bars we have the same predictive accuracy.
Currently, the indicator is at the pre-study, in particular the issues of error .Do not yet have a clear answer to the question why at the 35-48 Bars we get the forecast with an accuracy of 100%, but the 18-Bar, for example, have an error. We have to find answer for the question whether the wrong quotes are the whole cause. There was interest to note that if there is an incorrect result, it "sort of stretches" 3-4 Bars in a row. Kind of block errors.
What has been using this indicator to reveal?
First of all, the existing ideas about the forex market nature are not true at all .In particular the fact that the market is mostly consist off big players and banks that form the market and are able to influence it. If this were so, then predict the price movement of 15 Bars ahead with absolute precision would be impossible. Therefore, one should take as a working concept, the following:
"The market is large and small turnover of market participants, however, it represents a kind of self-drifting and unstable process, which" lives YOUR own life and none of the parties are unable to influence this inert and nobody managed a monster. "
Necessary to observe the situation, most recently, some days ago in a financial instrument pound-yen, when the indicator indicated that depreciation must occur at some spark, but the course of its indestructible stood another 8 hours (8 hours of Bars) and all the same . collapsed. We are assuming that the central banks in forced way kept the rate at which they demanded a mark, but after the process of forced price support rate infusion of the market was terminated - the quotes followed the predicted collapse. We draw your attention to our expression "inviolable stood, as proof of the artificiality of this process, because in our opinion he should have at least some range, but the fluctuations did not exceed one pip, which we believe is not realistic for real market conditions.
Occasionally, you've seen on the charts unrealistic large Bars that do not fit into the dynamics of the previous movements of the Bars .Sometimes on this there was opinion about possible manipulation of these quotes from the broker. Our indicator can be explained that in this place really should be these Bars and they were predicted by 15 Bars upfront. Therefore - it is a normal market phenomenon.
Now about the brokerage business .Such a business previously considered safe business. 95% of participants (traders) leave their deposit with the broker and of this amount being fed the remaining 5% and leave the lion's share of the broker. This indicator is a completely changes the situation for the broker. It allows you to put in poverty any broker in a matter of months. Except ECN / STP brokers, of course.
Such development usually has corelation with state interests and there are certain laws in all states that require their protection .In this regard, the author's name of article there has been changed. In any case, for the ordinary trader it's never become available.
CONCLUSION. It's all a joke, gentlemen. New Year's fantasy. You know that this can't be. And you, as always, are right. Relax and Bake to celebrate the New Year. Good luck in the New Year!
Nevertheless, in conclusion, I would ask only two questions:
1. Could there really be such an indicator is created?
2. What do you think about its market value?
Your,
Paul Tergeist
1. Could such an indicator really have been created ?
2. In your opinion, what is its market value ?
1. No.
2. Assuming there is one, only Abramovich is capable of buying it. )))
No. The market would have died and the social model of a planned economy would have prevailed. If everything was known in advance, there would be nothing to regulate.
p.s.Jokes, and even from Poltergeist, should be in Humour.
1. No.
2. Assuming there is one, only Abramovich is capable of buying it. )))
No. The market would have died and the social model of a planned economy would have prevailed. If everything was known in advance, there would be nothing to regulate.
p.s.Jokes, and even from Poltergeist, should be in Humour.
I think it may well exist.
I personally prefer to talk not about points, I've been creating forecasting systems for a long time (not just for forex, or rather forex was like a fun).
and i have my own strategy based on one of them that prints dough.
any indicator already predicts 50/50 (a little more, a little less), but they are essentially filters.
the only known indicator today is the extrapolator, but it is essentially a toy that needs a different approach,
I'm not sure if it's a statistical tool, but the standard one is wrong, I use the pips.