Software products from Piligrimm - page 13

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FLET:

I think it may well exist.

I personally prefer to talk not about points, I've been creating forecasting systems for a long time (not just for forex, or rather forex was like a fun).

and i have my own strategy based on one of them that prints dough.

any indicator already predicts 50/50 (a little more, a little less), but they are essentially filters.

the only known indicator today is the extrapolator, but it is essentially a toy that needs a different approach,

I'm not sure if it's a statistical tool, but the standard one is wrong, I use the pips.

From MT4 set of indicators only 2 have weak predictive properties - it's Percent Range, I think by Bill Wilms and the one used in Reshetov's Perceptron (I don't remember its name, you can look it up). There are also commercial predictive indicator products like Probability Meter, but its predictive properties are very modest, as it's based on a group of classical indicators. The extrapolator would work well if the market was stationary, but it isn't, so it doesn't even give 50% accuracy. I have tried everything before and realised that I need to build from scratch.
 
"Even 50" is actually a net zero of predictive ability...
 

I wrote

any indicator makes a 50/50 prediction (a bit more, a bit less), but they are inherently filters.

When the indicator shows the downside and the price went up, then the price goes up, but you don't know what to do.

But when the price goes up and the swing is going down, then you don't think I can open a position until the swing turns around or the price turns around too.......

i.e. there's an expectation if the price turns around, the trend has changed direction, it's time to open a position, forecast or what do you call it?

If you use three bezels, then the trend changes direction, it's time to open position, forecast or whatever you call it?

But if you use three scales, high and low with period 5 and their median with period 15, you'll get an interesting structure

the channel in which the average price moves, you can see how the movement of the median price approaches one of the bars .....,if you calculate the speed of changes of

If you calculate the speed of change of the median in the channel, you can get a forecast of the price reversal in the form of a specific number and time.

I want to draw attention to the fact that the simple wristwatch produces false positives, with high valence, so it's worth developing special ...... it's a matter of technique.

I think it's a thing of the past, there are more accurate forecasting systems.

 

the extrapolator by its nature can not predict, the author has implemented it a bit wrong, well, this is my opinion

I just watched it working and made my simple version, the results are amazingly different and it seemed to me that despite the fact that I have a simpler (rougher)

the results were closer to the price, so I drew the appropriate conclusion.

I can't say anything about the commercial predictive systems, I didn't hold them in my hands.

 
FLET:

the extrapolator by its nature can not predict, the author has implemented it a bit wrong, well, this is my opinion

I just watched it working and made my simple version, the results are amazingly different and it seemed to me that despite the fact that I have a simpler (rougher)

the results were closer to the price, so I drew the appropriate conclusion.

I can't say anything about the commercial predictive systems, I didn't hold them in my hands.

I didn't give the extrapolator any special attention compared to other evaluated price movement forecasting solutions, if only because the mathematical models in it are designed solely for forecasting stationary processes, while the market is non-stationary. Even in very small parts of the extrapolation, I had a very hard time getting a result around 55%, which dropped as the extrapolator's running time increased. My colleagues tried to independently program the formulas underlying this program and other achievements of applied mathematics, but the results obtained were far from being of value in real trading. And it should be noted that none of mathematical prediction models existing today can be used for predicting price behaviour without perfection with satisfactory results. And if we take into account that they (models) were developed in due time by famous mathematicians who did their best to improve these models, then the direction based on attempts to improve the already sufficiently perfect ones is not very promising. It was necessary to find a principally new approach, which would be based not on attempts to find a satisfactory approximation of the model to the modeled object, but on a principle, which gives the same result automatically, due to the nature of the principle itself. This principle does not yet exist among known methods of applied mathematics, but whatever is done once can be repeated many times with greater or lesser accuracy.
 

user999 10.01.2011 10:19

everything is true.

I do not agree about the principle, everything is there, you just have to look for it, I have not looked for anything, just sat down and did it, well, that's another story........

somewhere on the forum, he wrote that he first filtered out the price and then extrapolated, and the results were much better. Here is another example that everything can be done.

 
Assuming this is not a New Year's joke after all, the author is definitely probing the market for this superindicator. BUT why sell such a cool thing? you need such a cow yourself ... then why all this information here? perhaps the indicator is only in the process of development ... and its authors think it will be a grail... many have passed through it ... in general, dear USER999 ... clarify the situation, please ... this is a forum to discuss specific issues ...
 
user999:
It was necessary to find a fundamentally new approach, which would be based not on trying to find a satisfactory approximation of the model to the object being modelled, but on a principle that gives the same result automatically, by virtue of the nature of the principle itself. This principle does not yet exist among known methods of applied mathematics, but whatever is done once can be repeated many times with greater or lesser accuracy.
For a complete induction of ecstasy in the forums, it remains to fantasise in real time about predictions of future bars - even if only those that turn out well..... ;).... Or just a forecast + investment password, even from a demo account... otherwise one can just masturbate ...... ugh - fantasize in one's own toilet\bathroom (the place is variably chosen) and there is no reason (IMHO) - to put one's own financial and erotic fantasies on the public display ;).......
 

The article will be published on 31 March.

 
Abzasc:

The article will be published on 31 March.

most likely 31 february
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