The oil issue ... - page 51

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Сергей Криушин:
I don't know about china it was also mentioned that somewhere around 40% of production is already lost...
Cut down a little - don't embarrass yourself in front of the chinese
 
Дмитрий:
slow down a little - don't embarrass yourself in front of the chinese
I don't know what's shameful about falling, crises also happen under socialism, now everyone is shorting china - the americans are shutting down production due to higher labour costs... that's where they need to come to us to fix the chinese economy... with our cheap labour...
 
Сергей Криушин:
I don't know what's so shameful about falling, crises also happen under socialism, now everyone is shorting China - the Americans are shutting down production due to higher labour costs... that's where they need to come to us to fix the chinese economy... with our cheap labor...
cheap labor is not enough, we need cheap labor to work, not just to steal and drink ...
 

Here if you look at how the Chinese market (as measured by the Shanghai Composite Index) and the US market (as measured by the S&P 500 Index) are falling (or fortunate) - in short, medium and long term situations ...

Short-term trend.

Daily chart (Shanghai Composite, below - S&P 500):



In simplified terms: below the Ichimoku cloud is in a downtrend, above it is in an uptrend.
Both indices have already fallen in the short term, with the Chinese one falling normally, but the American one didn't want to "die" and showed "convulsions" for a while longer. Why? Let's look at the other timeframes.

 

Medium-term trend.



In the medium term, the Chinese market was in a good uptrend but then collapsed strongly (below the Ichimoku cloud). The US market was not in such an upswing, so it just fell. But the depth of the fall of the Chinese and American markets on this weekly timeframe is about the same:

  • the chinese market is now at a year low (same was almost a year ago),
  • and the US market has a year and 3 month low (the same value of the index was 1 year and 3 months ago).
 

Long-term trend.

Here (on the monthly chart) it is clear why the Chinese are falling quietly and the US market is "convulsing".



Here you can see that the Chinese market has not risen at all (it only rose recently - from late 2014 to summer 2015). Yes, the Chinese market is in a correction, the value has reached the Ichimoku cloud, below which there is already a long-term downtrend (long-term decline). But this cloud has not yet been crossed downwards by the price and the price is still in correction but in a primary uptrend. And the value of the index is still higher than it was in 2011, 2012 and 2013/14. That is - for China it is just a slight slowdown in growth (as if not critical yet).

In contrast, the USA index has been rising all along (both 2011 and 2012/13/15). A correction has also begun there but has not yet reached such depth.

  • The US market is in a growth slowdown after a multi-year rise.
  • The Chinese market is in a growth slowdown after a short-term upturn. A slowdown in the Chinese market (at least for this stock index) is a normal condition.

That is, the Chinese are not used to the slowdown, but the US is offended by their slowdown, because they (the US) have not had such a slowdown since 2009 (and the Chinese have always had such a "slowdown").

That is why the U.S. index is having great "convulsions" when it falls: what for the Americans is "death" is a normal state of life for the Chinese.

 
Sergey Golubev:

Medium-term trend.



In the medium term, the Chinese market was in a good uptrend but then collapsed strongly (below the Ichimoku cloud). The US market was not in such an upswing, so it just fell. But the depth of the fall of the Chinese and American markets on this weekly timeframe is about the same:

  • the chinese market is now at a year low (same was almost a year ago),
  • and the US market has a year and 3 month low (the same value of the index was 1 year and 3 months ago).
Yes according to the charts it seems to be the same, only from different levels and China is scorching its stocks and America is printing its AKUE in tens of billions that even Japan decided to go negative... so it is rightly said: while the fat one is dying the thin one will wither away...))
 
Alexander Bereznyak:
Cheap labor is not enough, we need cheap labor to work, not just steal and drink...
The oligarchs steal, while the labour force works as hard as it can, and those who drink and get drunk go to the graveyard... Only the new and the morally stable are left, who have to be paid a bit more to work and not to raise their voices against the oligarchs... even they have been withholding pay for years, like at the new space launch site, and Putin's construction project...)
 
What are you calculating there?:)))))))))))))) no one will let go of russia anymore...
 
Vasyl Nosal:
What are you calculating there?:)))))))))))))) Russia will not be let go...
Yes, Russia is cornered so tightly that there is no way out - it is surrounded by demons from all sides, but it is not the first time to emerge from the ashes, as some Afghan wise man said when the troops came in: - you came in, but how will you get out...
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