The oil issue ... - page 54
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IMHO: sensible material with answers to many questions.
http://lenta.ru/articles/2016/02/01/khestanov/
I think the usual set of stereotypical models - shale producers, Saudis, Iran, 'paper' oil linked to real oil, not the other way round...
The total volume of oil traded on the stock exchanges in half a month now is equal to the total annual production all over the world. Of course, one can fantasize that exchange traders, before making another purchase of oil futures, ask for quotes from producers, but common sense says that the opposite is true - when making a contract, oil producers are guided by the current exchange price and its expected dynamic. It is about the same as someone saying that forex traders open trades on the big mac index.
But how the exchange price is formed is not at all straightforward. The main players in this segment of the market are hedge-funds and their principles of forming portfolios are, first of all, terra incognita and, second, deeply individual. The only thing that is clear is that since all trading on the exchange and in the "real" market is done in dollars, the change of the dollar value has a complex but strong effect on the price of oil.
The price of oil started to fall from $100 when the euro started to fall from 1.4000+ to current levels. The respondent on the link rightly talks about 15-16 year cycles, now we are somewhere at the zenith of the dollar's cyclical strength.Let's imagine that in 7 years time, at its cyclical strength minimum, the dollar may well fall to 1.8000+ to the euro, and what will the oil price be then? 140? 160? Or $200 a barrel? It will be funny to read this interview then.
By the way, due to the fact that oil was only traded on exchanges in the 80s of the 20th century, while very large volumes have been traded for 20 years at most, it does not make much sense to look at the history of oil prices for more than the last 20 years in my view.
from all the nonsense written by champponze about oil going down for now
the next prediction is that oil has bottomed out and started to drip
the next prediction is that oil has bottomed out and started to drip
Yuri, she's just digging because they haven't found the main shooter yet.
It's all in the medium term...
you won't have time to find him... The state department will take him out before then.
...
There's no mistaking it's all tied up in big politics.
In the '80s after the oil price crash, the soviet union went through a major withdrawal...
After all, we were so well on the oil needle...
Why would you want to develop anything
if you stick a stick in the swamps of Tyumen region and boom dollars come out of the ground ...
..
...well the US and the Saudis conspired to bring oil down...
...then the empty counters in the '80s...
the big country's budget couldn't take it...
There's a thought that the U.S. is still using that technology...
The goal is to bring down Russia at the expense of low energy prices...
Well where is the logic that with the already low oil prices the usa suddenly repeal the law banning them from trading oil
of which there is already a surplus in the market...
In general, they are successfully accomplishing the task so far...
and we just woke up ... When the price comes to 30
We are looking forward to 20 and 10 in the coming years...
Nothing good will come from Russia at these prices...
...
By the way...
Germany has tested fusion
success was achieved, the plasma was held for more than 1 second
The Germans are as technologically advanced as ever.
In a little while mankind will have no need of oil and gas...
And then the price quotes for gas oil will hit rock bottom for sure...
"What will happen to steam heating" ... The movie Heart of a Dog...
I wonder what Russia will do then... After all, 40% of our exports is oil and gas.
And it will be the end of the line ...
Maybe I should buy shares in a fusion company ...
There was a good movie "Back to the Storm"...
We'll be fueling our cars with rubbish.
...
By the way.
Germany has tested fusion
success was achieved, the plasma was held for more than 1 second
The Germans are as technologically advanced as ever.
In a little while, mankind won't need oil and gas...
And then the price quotes for gas and oil will hit rock bottom...
I do not want to disappoint anyone, but it's a distant dream, which is connected with reality at the level of fiction. The Wendelstein 7-X is still a long way from even ITER, both in terms of funding and capacity. They could only hold a helium plasma for 1-2 seconds, and that is very unprofitable in terms of exhaust. The question of hydrogen for fusion is still as open as ever.
No, well, it's cool of course that the Germans are doing the experiments, it's really cool. What else are they supposed to do? They are the most obsessed with alternative energy sources, they have nothing else.
1-2 секунды они смогли удержать лишь гелиевую плазму, а это очень не выгодно по выхлопу. Вопрос про водород для термояда все еще открыт как никогда раньше.
Could you be more specific about this one?
I always thought that all current existing fusion reactions were helium reactions, that fusion reactions of hydrogen isotopes always give a helium plasma as an output.
And that helium fusion without hydrogen isotopes (B, Li) is a distant future, as they give a more powerful flux without induced radioactivity
I don't want to disappoint anyone, but these are still very distant dreams, which are linked to reality at the level of fantasy. The Wendelstein 7-X is still a long way from even ITER, both in terms of funding and capacity. They could only hold a helium plasma for 1-2 seconds, and that is very unprofitable in terms of exhaust. The question of hydrogen for fusion is still as open as ever.
No, well, it's cool of course that the Germans are doing the experiments, it's really cool. What else are they supposed to do? They're the most obsessed with alternative energy sources, that's all they've got.
Well, that's more like it!
--
Remember our leader's speech to the German audience:
You've given up on nuclear power.
I don't understand what you're going to heat it with.
You don't want GAZ, you don't develop nuclear power.
What will you use wood for fuel? Laughing...
You have to go to Siberia for firewood too... laughter again... and a curtain...
--
Could you be more specific about this one?
I always thought that all current existing fusion reactions were helium reactions, that fusion reactions of hydrogen isotopes always give a helium plasma as an output.
And that helium fusion without hydrogen isotopes (B, Li) is a distant future, as they give a more powerful flux without induced radioactivity
Thermonuclear reactions are generally speaking dark. Simply, in fusion physics, the basis is what is known as the Lowesen criterion, a two-component function of the reaction cross section. It shows at what concentrations and holding times, there will be a positive energy yield. Simply speaking, you can hold a very rarefied plasma for a long time, you can hold a denser plasma for less and you can hold a very dense plasma for a very short time and there will be a positive energy yield everywhere. And all this at a temperature no lower than critical. But for each reaction the Lawson criterion is different, plus a different temperature.
The most easily achievable parameters are for the deuterium-tritium plasma, which they are now trying to implement, but this reaction has many drawbacks. Other more profitable reactions are much tougher on parameters. But so far, even the easiest conditions cannot be achieved by physicists.
Fusion reactions are generally speaking dark. Simply, in fusion physics, the basis is what is known as the Lowesen criterion, a two-component function of the reaction cross section. It shows at what concentrations and holding times, there will be a positive energy yield. Simply speaking, you can hold a very rarefied plasma for a long time, you can hold a denser plasma for less and you can hold a very dense plasma for a very short time and everywhere there will be a positive energy yield. And all this at a temperature no lower than critical. But for each reaction the Lawson criterion is different, plus a different temperature.
The most easily achievable parameters are for the deuterium-tritium plasma, which they are now trying to implement, but this reaction has many drawbacks. Other more profitable reactions are much tougher on parameters. But so far, even the easiest conditions cannot be achieved by physicists.
There is no deuterium-tritium plasma and there never has been one. There is a fusion reaction between deuterium and tritium, which produces helium plasma.
Turn off wikipedia.
Thermonuclear reactions are generally speaking dark. Simply, in fusion physics, the basis is what is known as the Lowesen criterion, a two-component function of the reaction cross section. It shows at what concentrations and holding times, there will be a positive energy yield. Simply speaking, you can hold a very rarefied plasma for a long time, you can hold a denser plasma for less and you can hold a very dense plasma for a very short time and everywhere there will be a positive energy yield. And all this at a temperature no lower than critical. But for each reaction the Lawson criterion is different, plus a different temperature.
The most easily achievable parameters are for the deuterium-tritium plasma, which they are now trying to implement, but this reaction has many drawbacks. Other more profitable reactions are much tougher on parameters. But so far, even the easiest conditions cannot be achieved by physicists.