The oil issue ... - page 22

 
Alexandr Bryzgalov:
So it turns out that a third of the oil industry is not worth saving?

The psychology there is completely different - there, the state saves someone in business only in extreme cases. This is the market - you invested, you took a risk, you lost.

 
Дмитрий:

The psychology there is completely different - there, the state saves someone in business only in extreme cases. It is a market - you invested, you took a risk, you lost.

That's what I'm saying, it's not a small thing at all.

and again

The Saudis, who are under the US's thumb (so some say, others say "strategic partner"), started dumping and brought the price down so much that the US has a third of its oil at risk. From which they lifted the export embargo.

Possible developments:

1. Oil will not rise, lifting the embargo will not help, the US oil industry is collapsing, the US is without its production or with a deficit of what it already has. After the bankruptcy of a third of US companies (in the oil industry), there is more demand for oil and the price starts to rise.

2. Oil goes up, everyone gets scared shitless.)

 
Нефть по 30, доллар по 100. Как будем жить в 2016? - Михаил Слободин (Slobodin)
Нефть по 30, доллар по 100. Как будем жить в 2016? - Михаил Слободин (Slobodin)
  • so-l.ru
Нефть. Идеальный шторм. Продолжение. Год назад я написал пост про нефть, который прочитали все, кто умеют читать. Прогноз полностью подтвердился. Решил вновь для вас потрудиться в праздничные дни и подготовил новый, не менее сложный, но важный материал. Предисловие Второй год подряд получается, что в самом начале года ситуация на рынке нефти...
 
Alexandr Bryzgalov:

that's what I'm saying, it's not a little thing at all.

And again

The Saudis, who are under the US umbrella (so some say, others say "strategic partner"), started dumping and brought the price down so much that the US has a third of its oil in jeopardy. From which they lifted the export embargo.

Possible developments:

1. Oil will not rise, lifting the embargo will not help, the US oil industry is collapsing, the US is without its production or with a deficit of what it already has. After one-third of US companies go bankrupt (in the oil industry), there is more demand for oil and the price starts to rise.

2. oil goes up, everyone gets a little scared shitless )

A third of the oil industry MAY go bankrupt only by mid-2017. Or it might not. And two-thirds will definitely not go bankrupt.

Why would the US be without oil?

 
Дмитрий:

A third of the oil industry MAY go bankrupt only by mid-2017. Or maybe it won't. And two-thirds will definitely not go bankrupt.

Why would the US be without its oil industry?

They have their own production in short supply, when some of it starts to collapse there may be a snowball effect, but this is just a guess, it will not all collapse anyway, the big ones will stay.

they won't go bankrupt at $30-50 and this is $20.

i.e. there will be a bigger deficit without imports.

Is a year and a half a long time for the market?

 
Alexandr Bryzgalov:

that's what I'm saying, it's not a little thing at all.

And again

The Saudis, who are under the US umbrella (so some say, others say "strategic partner"), started dumping and brought the price down so much that the US has a third of its oil in jeopardy. So they lifted the export embargo.

Here's an interesting podcast I listened to yesterday. Including how the Saudis started oil production. They were given 5% of profit by Englishmen who developed fields and they did not let them in accounting.

http://brand.podfm.ru/1875/

 

Here is what can happen in a year and a half )

 
Alexandr Bryzgalov:

there it is, a whole third of it will go to waste.

http://www.rbc.ru/economics/12/01/2016/5694a07a9a79472b8119602f

It's simple there with the fall of oil...
1.geopolitics (to keep the "gas stations" from raising their heads high (not just Russia))
2.Later the funds got involved (the Fed let them off the hook)
3.The rise of the dollar
Kicking out small and weak miners and so on... just a nice side effect for some...
 

I suspect that the current oil price is revenge for the stifled shale oil revolution.

That is, if the U.S. did not let us develop shale oil, we will collapse prices and take it all for free...

 
Vladimir Pastushak:

I suspect that the current oil price is revenge for the stifled shale oil revolution.

That is, if the U.S. did not let us develop shale oil, we will collapse prices and take it all for free...

If the u.s. is the u.s., the shale revolution took place in the u.s.