The oil issue ... - page 53

[Сергей Криушин]

Sergey Chalyshev:
What's the difference, it's the same size, only with more zeros. I kept one as a memento, see my profile.

It is also true that the dollar equivalent is important - now we will have to deposit twice as much paper - problem - so Chubais will cut zeros again... bring one bemag to $200 - and everyone will be happy again...)))

[Alexey Volchanskiy]

forexman77:

What comes out of the wells is not marketable oil. Yes, there is water that has to be removed for the oil to become marketable, I don't remember exactly, but I think 1% of watercut is marketable oil.

And I read that some wells give 98% of water at all, but they pump it out with water.

Old is old.

That's right, I remember watching a documentary. There are such high columns and in them this mixture is stratified, this is the first rough stage, then something else.

[Sergey Golubev]

If we carry out the same (as for the Chinese and US indices) mini analysis on the RTS Index, it turns out that we are actually not doing so badly.

The short-term situation (D1).

The index (in 2015 and 2016 only) had been rising since the beginning of 2015 and was in an uptrend, but then it started to break down somewhere in May: the price was in a primary downtrend for a long time until October last year, when it started to break down, but already in an uptrend. Once again above the Ichimoku cloud in the uptrend area, in November last year, the index fell again to its short-term low in the primary downtrend area, where any up or down movement of the index would still not be considered as primary growth, but as a secondary trend in a primary fall.

In other words, it is not all bad in the short term - there have been several critical moves of the index in the past year, which is now below and close to the Ichimoku cloud (above which is the primary uptrend area).

[Sergey Golubev]

Medium-term trend (W1).

When you look at the chart, you can't help but get the feeling of artificial movement... as if someone (not the market) is moving the price up and down ... maybe "infusions", maybe geopolitics ... The same feeling arises when one considers GBP/USD, for example ...

But things are not that bad in the medium term here either. Although the market has been falling since 2011, it was always near the reversal edge between a primary downtrend and a primary uptrend, in full readiness to start a good rally (to move quickly into a primary medium-term growth area).

[Sergey Golubev]

Long-term trend and oil (MN1).

In the long term, the index has been on the rise since 2000, rising in an uptrend area (just like the US S&P 500 - "rocket to the sky"). The fall began in the summer of 2008, ended in the autumn of 2009 in a downtrend area, and then a very quick rise to an uptrend area, from which the index slowly began to fall (starting in the spring of 2011). And it is now below and near the Ichimoku cloud, and that cloud has "reversed", predicting a possible change of trend to an uptrend. That is, in the long run, it's not as bad as the media say it is - all this falling can "overnight" change into rapid growth.

But the interesting thing is that the fall in the index started at the same time as oil fell ...

[Sergey Golubev]

This synchronicity can be seen when comparing the two charts (RTS index and oil on a monthly timeframe):

Time frame	RTS Index	Brent Crude Oil
July 2008 - May 2009	a break-down from 2280 to 750, with the price stopping in a sustained primary downtrend area	oil fell from $125 to $50
May 2009 - May 2011	upward break from the level of 750 to the level of 2000.	oil rises from $50 to $120
May 2011 - July 2014	the index falls gently in different directions to the area of the initial long-term downtrend to the level of 1300.	price of oil slightly over $100, multidirectional trend in an uptrend area
July 2014 - now	Continued multidirectional drop in the index from 1300 to 720	Downtrend breakdown - price falls from $110 to $33 to $34 and stops in the area of a sustained long-term downtrend

[Pavel Gotkevitch]

IMHO: sensible material with answers to many questions.

http://lenta.ru/articles/2016/02/01/khestanov/

[Yuri Evseenkov]

Sergey Golubev:

Long-term trend and oil (MN1).

But what is interesting is that the drop in the index started at the same time as oil fell ...

Where the brent goes, the trend goes. Conventional wisdom.

[Alexandr Saprykin]

Yuri Evseenkov:
Where the brent goes, the trend goes. Conventional wisdom.

Ahhhh. New proverbs. I'll remember them. It will come in handy in life.

[Vizard_]