There is no point in using indicators if they lag behind. - page 4
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I read about the filter. The idea is really not a bad one. Just now I was developing the same one and it turned out that I was inventing a bicycle....
Indeed, with such method as Kalman describes it is possible to reject noise and predict the next tick with some probability.
Question as an expert on this filter - no coincidence with the prediction from the MA?
If we go deeper, the idea is simple: we take the straight line equation and suppose that all coefficients in this equation are some noise. Correspondingly, we make noise matrices for each coefficient, find external influence as a vector, remove it and ala-ulu, we have some happiness)
It is quite a complex algorithm (much more complex than MA) and it was developed by world-renowned mathematicians. To learn how to use it you should study the theory of filtering and forecasting
How does a DI help to make money? Tomorrow will be EURUSD between 0.5 -1.5. with a probability of 0.99. How to earn?))
Every forecasting algorithm includes time, and the longer the forecasting horizon the bigger is the error value(confidence interval).
You gave a very bad example of prediction. How about this one with a 0.99 probability EURUSD exchange rate will go up by 10 points in 1 minute, with a plus or minus 1 point confidence interval?
How can you make a profit with such quality of forecast?
Kalman is a fairly complex algorithm (much more complex than MA), and is derived by world-renowned mathematicians. To learn how to use it you should study the theory of filtering and forecasting
Every forecasting algorithm includes time, and the longer the forecasting horizon the bigger is the error value(confidence interval).
You gave a very bad example of prediction. How about this one with a 0.99 probability EURUSD exchange rate will go up by 10 points in 1 minute, with a plus or minus 1 point confidence interval?
How can you make money with this kind of prediction?
Kalman is a fairly complex algorithm (much more complex than MA), and is derived by world-renowned mathematicians. To learn how to use it, you need to study the theory of filtering and prediction.
There is no need to exaggerate... I have no degrees and do not want to achieve world recognition, I will give you the simplest example of filtering, which is quite well applicable to forex:
No need to exaggerate... Without having degrees or seeking world recognition, let me give a simple example of filtering:
As soon as you start to analyze the market, you start to analyze the market situation. Only statistics and that with great caution.
proves nothing, but it is workable - the noise will be discarded. RENCO is roughly the same principle, but much more complicated.
Forecast - look at the EUR on the M1. What happened?
The fact that you cannot build a normal indicator on forex, unlike on the stock market, is therefore of no importance.
Doesn't prove anything, but you can work - the noise is off. It's roughly the same principle of RENCO, but much more complicated.
The picture should tell you who is playing and who you can shoehorn in. Otherwise it's a game of cephyr. Does your picture show you that?
If you don't understand who loses money in the market, you lose it. (c) Buffett kinda))
The picture should tell you who is playing and who you can shoehorn in. Otherwise it's a game of cephyr. Does your picture show you that?
If you don't understand who is losing money, you are losing money. Like Buffett))
Yep, it's been like that for a long time.
Amen)) While in the market, get ready to lose and for black swans. It's part of the profession.
No need to exaggerate... Without having degrees or world-wide recognition, here's a simple example of filtering:
There is a science of DSP (digital signal processing), so you are right and this could be the simplest filter. There are all sorts of DSP algorithms, simple and complex, and there are people who have made very big contributions to the science, and their algorithms are usually very complex, and one such scientist is Kalman.
he's made a very big contribution to control theory (anyone who's seen the formulas knows). You can control an aeroplane, a car, a ship etc and in our particular case you can control an account. There are mathematical principles (formulas, calculations, mathematical proof) that show the optimal control, how it must be implemented, what information you need to have...
Many traders start re-inventing the wheel, looking for different variants and combinations of indicators (paternas, etc.). They are like blind kittens wondering if something will work out ... I'm not saying that this is a dead end (it may work), this path is long and thorny.