Lance Begs' postulates - page 7
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Vitaly, you may not be aware of this, but HideYourRichess is a highly respected character here, whose opinion is not unreasonably listened to. I feel that you are an experienced trader who trades on American markets. But making invective towards him, you won't get respect from the inhabitants of this place. I think you get that from what people are saying to you. Stop fighting windmills, you've picked the wrong target to harass. Trying to prove his incompetence is more likely to make you look like a simpleton.
It was through MT4 that I became acquainted with America.
Then I traded on our domestic exchanges and became a certified professional participant. As soon as I got to this side of the barricades and communicated with people who trade with 1000 times bigger deposit than students on Forex, I came to following conception.
1. The main thing is to protect the capital at first, and then to think about multiplying it(if we dilute the capital on islands with web money, it depends only on the goodwill of the counterparty).
2) It is better to have 2% of a million than 100% of USD 1000
3. it is a waste of time to spend on different WHY (news, emotions, reports ...). You either have an insider or a stat advantage.
But if all three points are not met at the same time, to my HO, there is no full-fledged success there.
I try not to judge personalities, but only the point of view they defend.
My result sucks - I cannot get more than 31% a year. I wanted to trade with signals, but so far they only subscribe to signals with a yield of 400-500%, i.e. I will definitely miss out.
Maybe you can teach me... Tell me... tell me how to increase?
And if you'd like, I'll try to help.
There was a topic around here somewhere about the robustness of EAs (or TSs, I don't understand), I sat down three times to write a post about what I thought of all this, and each time I was dissatisfied. And now I've encountered this one and I think it's very good about robustness. Obviously, it's material "to think about" (c) Neo, and there are no grails there. But, once again, it's very right stuff, and very robust.
The nature of the market is not about price, it's about something else.
- One of the reasons traders can't succeed is because they don't understand the game they are playing. They don't understand the nature of the market. They don't understand the nature of trading.
- To understand the real nature of the market, we will need to go through several steps. We need to start first, what is price and why does it move?What makes price move? This will lead us to a new understanding of the nature of the market.
-Price is the decision of 2 traders to sell or buy. Price movement is the result of an imbalance between supply and demand
. This imbalance is created by the trader's desire to urgently open a trade.
-The price does not reflect the fundamentals, it shows the mood of the crowd, who make their predictions based on analysis and specific decisions.
- The price behavior is based on psychology. It is rather emotional than mathematical, that is why price behavior cannot be predicted by mathematics.
- Simple setups do not work in the market, they cannot adapt to the unclear and uncertain nature of price behavior. Fixed rules do not work. Any pattern, such as head and shoulders, will not work if it is pointing down and people want to buy.
The market is traders making decisions. The market is not about price movement.
- The problem is that traders only focus on price.Price movement is the consequence. These traders simply go after the consequence, hoping that the movement will continue and they will profit.
- Look at the price movement through a different prism - the cause and effect. The price movement and indicator signals are the consequence. Most traders focus only on this. That is all they see and all they trade. To really understand the market, we have to focus on the cause.
The most effective analysis, is not price analysis, but analysis of traders' decisions.
- You should buy where others will also buy and after you, because this will create bullish pressure and the price will go higher, allowing you to profit.
- Sell where you know others will also sell after you, because this will create bearish pressure and the price will go lower and you will make a profit.
- Simply put,buy where others will buy after you and sell where others will sell after you. You can do this if you focus on the areas where traders make decisions. What are they thinking about? Where will they make decisions?
Find the zones where traders will make decisions and you can make money.
- Draw zones, not lines. Most importantly, don't be afraid of subjectivity, and don't get hung up on accuracy. You will see later on that these are zones of interest rather than zones from which price is bound to pull back, sometimes we will trade a pullback, sometimes a breakout.
When we can identify the zone where most market participants will be stressed, we will be able to identify the zone of possible entry into the market.
- Trades in the market are done in real time,the time frame concept exists only so we can see past and present price behaviour. The higher the time frame, the better the overall market picture is. The lower the time frame, the more detailed a trader can look at price behaviour.
I was torn by this phrase, although I did finish reading to the end.
If you want to become a scientist, you need to understand the nature of the phenomenon. If you want to make money, you need to exploit a pattern. Example, to boil the kettle on the gas, you do not need to understand the nature of the piezo lighter, bring it to the gas, press the button, it's done.
The same is in trading, you need to understand a simple thing. Any profit is made on price fluctuations. The maximum delta between extremes, i.e. mac efficiency is to catch the movement between them. But there are a few buts:
If you want to avoid swaps and commissions you have to put a filter on the minimum movement from which we start to trade (for me this is 20 spreads, if the target is less, the signal is ignored).
My volume should not exceed 1% of average bar to avoid slippage. In forex it is not very relevant, but on the exchanges, for example on the UkrExchange now working TF should not be below 1H, well, not the smallest lot to trade.
So, the statistic advantage is created when determining the extremum and correction for liquidity and commissions is provided. All the algo systems that win contests are based on these principles.
But traders are spending ... billions on thinking about whether it is scary, cold or wet. billions.
Z.I. Again he has a conflict of opinion. At first he says that the price is not important and you have to follow the emotions and then you have to look at the price chart to identify the emotions.
S.S. Simple patterns do not work? Come on, buying on the third day of growth works, it's much easier.
And the postulate about the foundation not working is highly questionable without correction for the horizon. On a yearly TF, one can see the exact market reaction to all quarterly reports of the company. And on the minute one, the direction of the subsequent tick is random.
And if you would like, I will try to help you.
Ahah )
And how do you treat it without analysis?
Especially the person wants to improve the quality of trading, not asking for money in the trust, so an example of typical trades will do, not an interval report.
I thank you in advance - only I trade currencies - not stocks.
You are trading bookmaker's receipts for price changes, that's to be precise.
But this is of little relevance, a good strategy shows similar results on any markets with similar liquidity. That is, whether on Banc of America, gold or euro will work. With an average of one hour in trades. But we do not use pipsing, do we?
But we don't pipsqueak, do we?
Sometimes even pros use pipsipsing, but they do not show it.)
Right now I am pounding hard with a sledgehammer 1.2745
St.Vitaliy:
therefore an example of typical trades rather than an interval report will do.
So send us a sample of typical trades and we will discuss it.
so I don't have a problem with CU. I can't sleep that my money is in an offshore company account and neither SEC nor tax knows about it.
Also there are problems with execution accuracy and physical resources, it is hard to trade several TS at the same time. All this can be solved with automation, but which platform?