Lance Begs' postulates
Yes, I almost forgot, the author is talking about the real market, stocks, futures, not currencies.
Are currencies unrealistic? Are the banks playing for fun with each other?
What about forex?
No, no, you can do it on the forex market as well, I got a bit excited, then I thought about it and decided that maybe you can, but it's specific. You can't see a lot of what's going on there.
So I deleted the controversial shit.
Are currencies unrealistic? Are the banks playing for fun with each other in the money?
Reshetov, you are not a bank.
And what some guy named Vasya Pupkin writes in kitchen quotes has nothing to do with it.
You write it down first. Then withdraw it :) . If they let me withdraw all the money I made in the kitchens... I'm talking about normal businesses. And the difference is not (only) gambling in kitchens.
What does this have to do with the problem of getting money out of the kitchen and the real market?
Let's say, on the fund and on futures these very kitchens are a dime a dozen. Take CFDs for example.
I am talking about exchange turnover, not myself. Interbank turnover is real. And what some Papkin writes there through kitchen quotations has nothing to do with it.
Well, the stock exchange is an open auction.
That is, everyone knows at what price a transaction was made. Forex, due to its decentralization, does not have such data. And so on. In general, it is a market, but over-the-counter. Hence many difficulties.
I will not change my opinion - I used to dabble in currencies myself, but then I realized that it wasn't for me. It's not fair what's going on there, I decided.
What does this have to do with the problems of taking money out of the kitchens and the real market?
Let's just say that in the fund and in futures these very kitchens are a dime a dozen. Take CFDs for example.
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Once upon a time there was a topic about robustness of Expert Advisors (or TS, I do not understand it). I sat down to write a message about my opinion about it three times and was not satisfied each time. And now I've encountered this one and I think it's very good about robustness. Obviously, it's material "to think about" (c) Neo, and there are no grails there. But, once again, this is very right stuff, and very robust.
The nature of the market is not about price, it is about something else.
- One of the reasons traders cannot succeed is because they do not understand the game they are playing. They don't understand the nature of the market. They don't understand the nature of trading.
- To understand the real nature of the market, we will need to go through several steps. We need to start first, what is price and why does it move?What makes price move? This will lead us to a new understanding of the nature of the market.
-Price is the 2 traders decision to sell or buy. Price movement is the result of an imbalance between supply and demand
supply. This imbalance is created by the trader's desire to urgently open a trade.
-Price does not reflect fundamentals, it shows the mood of the crowd, who make their predictions based on analysis and specific decisions.
- Price behaviour is based on psychology. It is rather emotional than mathematical, that's why price behavior cannot be predicted by mathematics.
- Simple setups do not work in the market, they cannot adapt to the unclear and uncertain nature of price behavior. Fixed rules do not work. Any pattern, such as head and shoulders, will not work if it is pointing down and people want to buy.
The market is the traders making the decisions. The market is not a price movement.
- The problem is that traders only focus on price.Price movement is the consequence. These traders simply follow the consequence, hoping that the movement will continue and they will make a profit.
- Look at the price movement through a different prism - the cause and effect. The price movement and indicator signals are the consequence. Most traders focus only on this. That is all they see and all they trade. To truly understand the market, we have to focus on the cause.
The most effective analysis is not price analysis, but analysis of traders' decisions.
- You should buy where others will also buy and after you, because this will create bullish pressure and the price will go higher, allowing you to profit.
- Sell where you know others will also sell after you, because this will create bearish pressure and the price will go lower and you will make a profit.
- Simply put,buy where others will buy after you and sell where others will sell after you. You can do this if you focus on the areas where traders make decisions. What are they thinking about? Where will they make decisions?
Find zones where traders will make decisions and you can make money.
- Draw zones, not lines. Most importantly, don't be afraid of subjectivity, and don't get hung up on accuracy. You will see later on that these are zones of interest rather than zones from which price is bound to pull back, sometimes we will trade a pullback, sometimes a breakout.
When we can identify the zone where most market participants will be stressed, we will be able to identify the zone of possible entry into the market.
- Trades in the market are done in real time,the time frame concept exists only so we can see past and present price behaviour. The higher the time frame, the better the overall market picture is. The lower time interval is, the more detailed the trader can see the price behavior.