Windsor Brokers - Short Term Technical Analysis for Majors (updated daily) - page 85
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EURUSD
The Euro continues to trend higher within daily channel off 1.3475 base. Near term focus remains at psychological 1.4000 barrier, as the approached the target on extension to 1.3965, seen on 13 Mar. The price action consolidates under the recent top, with downside being so far protected at 1.3840 zone, where 4-hour 55SMA / daily Tenkan-sen line and Fibonacci 38.2% of 1.3642/1.3965 upleg, offer good support. Near-term action moves around 1.39 handle, following last Friday’s upside rejection at 1.3936 and weekly close at 1.39 zone. Hourly studies are losing traction that suggests further consolidation, as 4-hour indicators are in descending mode. However, holding above 1.3840/00 supports zone, would keep overall positive tone and single currency’s stability intact for eventual attack at 1.4000 barrier, break of which to open next targets at 1.4056, Fibonacci 138.2% expansion of the third wave from 1.3672 and psychological 1.4100 hurdle in extension. Conversely, extension below 1.38 handle, 50% retracement and near channel support, would signal stronger pullback and put near-term bulls on hold.
Res: 1.3939; 1.3965; 1.4000; 1.4056
Sup: 1.3876; 1.3840; 1.3800; 1.3765
http://mediaserver.fxstreet.com/Reports/325f5b3f-7a7d-4768-8193-afec3573778f/eurusd_20140317092053.png
GBPUSD
Cable remains in near-term sideways mode, with price action attempting at the range’s lower boundary, as initial support at 1.6582 was cracked last week on extension to 1.6566. Near-term studies are negatively aligned, with price holding near 1.66 handle, also 38.2% retracement of larger 1.6250/1.6821 ascend, with hourly tone being neutral but 4-hour structure bearish. With downside risk increased, immediate focus lies at lowered range floor at 1.6566, below which to open 1.6536, 50% retracement and psychological 1.6500 support in extension and signal stronger correction of larger upleg from 1.5853 to 1.6821. Otherwise, extended sideways trading would be likely near-term scenario, with regain of lower top at 1.6716, required to improve the structure and shift focus higher.
Res: 1.6650; 1.6700; 1.6716; 1.6740
Sup: 1.6624; 1.6585; 1.6566; 1.6536
http://mediaserver.fxstreet.com/Reports/325f5b3f-7a7d-4768-8193-afec3573778f/gbpusd_20140317092030.png
USDJPY
The pair fully retraced near-term rally from 101.19 to 103.75 on last week’s fresh acceleration lower. Near-term price action moves in a consolidative mode above fresh low at 101.20, as hourly indicators are heading north and 4-hour studies coming out of oversold territory. This would signal extended consolidative / corrective action, however, not much of the upside prospective is seen for now, as larger picture remain bearish. Ideally, rallies should be capped under 102.50, midpoint of 103.75/101.20 descend, to keep bears intact. Break below 101.20 handle to open another significant support at 100.74, 03/05 Feb base and psychological 100 support in extension.
Res: 101.85; 102.17; 102.50; 102.80
Sup: 101.20; 101.00; 100.74; 100.00
http://mediaserver.fxstreet.com/Reports/325f5b3f-7a7d-4768-8193-afec3573778f/usdjpy_20140317092007.png
AUDUSD
The pair trades in a choppy mode, with near-term structure being positive, as the holds above near-term base at 0.9000, reinforced by daily 20SMA. Fresh bounce attempts at pivotal 0.9100/32 barriers, break of which to resume recovery rally from 0.8658, 24 Jan low, which is interrupted by current consolidation. Clearance of 0.9132 opens 0.9135, 10 Dec 2013 high and 0.9206, 50% retracement of larger 0.9755/0.8658 descend. Increased downside risk could be expected on a loss of 0.9000 handle.
Res: 0.9100; 0.9132; 0.9165; 0.9206
Sup: 0.9000; 0.8923; 0.8900; 0.8832
http://mediaserver.fxstreet.com/Reports/325f5b3f-7a7d-4768-8193-afec3573778f/audusd_20140317091942.png
EURUSD
The Euro showed limited action during past few sessions, with price action moving within narrow 1.3880/1.3940 range, awaiting today’s FOMC decision. Hourly tone is neutral, as the price forms bullish pennant, while larger pictures maintain positive tone and favor eventual push towards short-term target at 1.4000. Recent range tops, along with bear-trendline off 1.3965, offer initial resistance, ahead of fresh high at 1.3965 and psychological 1.4000 barrier, also daily channel resistance. Break here to resume larger uptrend, interrupted by 1.3965/1.3840 corrective phase and expose next targets at 1.4056, double-Fibonacci resistance 138.2% expansion of the third wave from 1.3642 and 138.2% projection of the downmove from 1.3892 to 1.3475. Narrowed range floor at 1.3880 offers immediate support, ahead of the first pivot at 1.3840 higher platform / Fibonacci 38.2% retracement of 1.3642/1.3965 upleg and only break here would sideline near-term bulls in favor of deeper pullback towards 1.3800, 50% retracement / channel support; 1.3765, Fibonacci 61.8% retracement of 1.3642/1.3965 rally and 1.3700, higher base / round-figure support / 76.4% retracement.
Res: 1.3946; 1.3965; 1.4000; 1.4056
Sup: 1.3900; 1.3880; 1.3840; 1.3800
GBPUSD
Cable came under pressure and ended the second day in red, after fresh weakness broke below near-term range floor, to post fresh low at 1.6544, where daily 55SMA contained dips for now. Weak near-term studies favor further downside, with psychological 1.6500 support, also daily Ichimoku cloud top coming next, ahead of 1.6451, Fibonacci 38.2% retracement of larger 1.5853/1.6821 ascend. Corrective rallies are expected to precede fresh leg lower, with regain of 1.66 handle expected to open 1.6646/64 barriers, where rallies should be ideally contained. Pivotal resistance lies at 1.6716, 13 Mar peak and only break here to improve near-term structure.
Res: 1.6608; 1.6646; 1.6664; 1.6700
Sup: 1.6544; 1.6500; 1.6451; 1.6400
USDJPY
Near-term price action moves in a consolidative mode above fresh low at 101.19, after the pair fully retraced 101.19/103.75 upleg. Near-term tone remains weak, as recovery attempts were capped under psychological 102 barrier, with descending 4-hour SMA limiting the upside for now and bull-trendline off 100.74 low being cracked. Break below 101.19 handle is required to open another significant support at 100.74, 03/05 Feb base and psychological 100 support in extension. Only break above 102.50 and 102.80, Fibonacci 61.8% retracement of 103.75/101.19 would improve near-term structure.
Res: 101.93; 102.17; 102.50; 102.80
Sup: 101.29; 101.19; 101.00; 100.74
AUDUSD
The pair maintains positive near-term tone and eventually broke above psychological 0.9100 barrier, to crack key near-term resistance and pivotal point at 0.9132, on extension to 0.9137 so far. Positive near-term technicals keep the upside favored, with clear break above of 0.9132 barrier, expected to open 0.9151, 200SMA; 0.9165, 10 Dec 2013 high and 0.9206, 50% retracement of larger 0.9755/0.8658 descend. Corrective dips would face initial support at 0.91 zone, also hourly 55SMA and higher low at 0.9062, Fibonacci 38.2% retracement of 0.8923/0.9137, seen as ideal reversal point to keep bulls intact.
Res: 0.9137; 0.9151; 0.9165; 0.9206
Sup: 0.9100; 0.9060; 0.9030; 0.9000
EURUSD
The Euro bounced through 1.3820 barrier which capped near-term consolidation and spiked at 1.3874, marking 61.8% retracement of 1.3946/1.3748 fall. Formation of double-bottom pattern signals further upside, as hourly technicals are positive. Pullback off fresh high at 1.3874 attempts to consolidate above previous peak at 1.3825, with hourly bullish 20/55SMA’s cross at 1.3800, underpinning the action. Holding above the latter would keep freshly established bulls in play for further recovery towards 1.3900 and lower platform at 1.3930/40 zone. However, negatively aligned 4-hour studies require caution, as failure to extend gains above initial 1.3874, would keep the downside vulnerable, with loss of 1.38 handle to bring bears back in play for possible retest of 1.3759/48 lows.
Res: 1.3874; 1.3900; 1.3940; 1.3965
Sup: 1.3825; 1.3800; 1.3759; 1.3748
GBPUSD
Cable remains under pressure and posted marginally lower low at 1.6464, with near-term price action moving in consolidative mode, following yesterday’s short-lived spike to 1.6535, where broken bear-channel support line and Fibonacci 38.2% of 1.6652/1.6464 downleg capped rally. Hourly studies are neutral, while bears dominate on 4-hour chart and favor further downside. Immediate target lies at 1.6451, Fibonacci 38.2% retracement of larger 1.5853/1.6821 ascend, ahead of daily 100 SMA at 1.6423 and psychological 1.6400 support. Alternative scenario requires break above 1.6535 to signal basing attempt and allow for stronger recovery towards 1.6558, 50% retracement / 55SMA and 1.6580, Fibonacci 61.8%. Key near-term barriers and breakpoints lay at 1.6652/64, above which to confirm formation of higher low at 1.6464.
Res: 1.6517; 1.6535; 1.6558; 1.6580
Sup: 1.6464; 1.6451; 1.6400; 1.6385
USDJPY
The pair is near-term neutral mode, with price being entrenched within 102.00/63 range and trading in sideways mode. Hourly studies are losing traction after repeated failure at the range tops, with range floor being under pressure. On the 4-hour chart positive tone remains in play, however, break below 20 and 55SMA’s keeps the downside vulnerable. Slide below 102 handle, mid-point of 101.29/102.67 range and 101.80, 61.8% retracement, would signal further weakness and risk return to 101.20 base. Conversely, clearance of the range ceiling at 102.67 and Fibonacci 61.8% of 103.75/101.19 at 102.77, to confirm bullish resumption towards 103.00 and 103.42/75 in extension.
Res: 102.33; 102.67; 102.77; 103.09
Sup: 102.00; 101.80; 101.50; 101.20
AUDUSD
The pair eventually broke above key near-term barriers at 0.9132/37 and 200SMA at 0.9141,with fresh peak being posted at 0.9156 and confirmation seen on a daily close above previous peaks. Bullish near-term studies are supportive for such scenario, with immediate targets laying at 0.9165, 10 Dec 2013 peak and 0.9206, 50% retracement of 0.9755/0.8658 descend. To keep bulls intact, consolidative / corrective actions should be ideally contained near 0.9100, Fibonacci 38.2% of 0.8994/0.9156 rally / bull-trendline off 0.8994 higher low. Key near-term support and breakpoint lies at 0.900 higher base and break here would be bearish.
Res: 0.9156; 0.9165; 0.9206; 0.9269
Sup: 0.9118; 0.9100; 0.9075; 0.9047
EURUSD
The Euro remains directionless in the near-term, with price action holding within 100-pips range. Near-term basing attempt appears on repeated downside rejection at 1.3748, which proves to be solid support and subsequent strong bounce above 1.38 barrier that keeps the downside intact for now. However, regain of initial 1.3846 and more significant 1.3867 barrier, 24 Mar peak, is required to confirm near-term base and higher low of larger uptrend from 1.3475 and shift focus towards psychological 1.3900 barrier, 1.3940 lower platform and key 1.3965 resistance, peak of 13 Mar. Hourly studies are neutral, while mixed 4-hour tone requires improvement on a break above 1.3833, 55SMA and 1.3846, yesterday’s highs. Daily bulls are losing momentum and would keep the downside at risk while broken bull-channel trendline at 1.3850, caps upside attempts.
Res: 1.3846; 1.3867; 1.3900; 1.3940
Sup: 1.3800; 1.3759; 1.3748; 1.3720
GBPUSD
Cable trades in near-term consolidative mode off fresh low at 1.6464, posted on 24 Mar. Recovery attempts were so far capped by descending 4-hour 55SMA at 1.6548 and Fibonacci 23.6% retracement of 1.6784/1.6464 downleg. With positive hourly studies, fresh upside remain in play, however, still weak 4-hour studies see the action limited for now. Break above initial 1.6548 barrier and the first pivot, is required to open 1.6586, Fibonacci 38.2% and psychological 1.66 hurdle, above which to confirm near-term bulls. Otherwise, extended consolidation phase would precede fresh leg lower, as larger picture remains bearish and favors further extension of near-term downtrend from 1.6821, 17 Feb peak. Loss of 1.6464 handle to open targets at 1.6429, 100SMA and psychological 1.6400 support.
Res: 1.6548; 1.6566; 1.6586; 1.6600
Sup: 1.6500; 1.6480; 1.6464; 1.6429
USDJPY
The pair is near-term neutral mode, with price being entrenched within narrow range and trading in sideways mode. Hourly studies are flat, while 4-hour chart technicals are positively aligned.. Slide below 102 handle, mid-point of 101.29/102.67 upleg and 101.80, 61.8% retracement, would signal further weakness and risk return to 101.20 base. On the upside, clearance of initial barrier at 102.47 and range ceiling at 102.67, as well as Fibonacci 61.8% of 103.75/101.19 at 102.77, is required to confirm bullish resumption towards 103.00 and 103.42/75 in extension.
Res: 102.47; 102.67; 102.77; 103.15
Sup: 102.00; 101.80; 101.50; 101.20
AUDUSD
The pair maintains positive near-term tone and continues to post new yearly highs, after break above 0.9132/37 congestion tops cleared psychological 0.9200 barrier. This also marks 50% retracement of larger descend from 0.9755, peak of 23 Oct 2013 to 0.8658, 24 Jan 2014 low. The third wave which commenced from 0.8889, 03 Mar higher low, approaches its 76.4% Fibonacci expansion at 0.9214 and could extend to 0.9314, its 100% expansion. Positive near-term technicals favor further upside, however, bulls may be interrupted by corrective action, as studies are entering overbought territory. Immediate support lies at 0.9150, ahead of 0.9120 higher base and Fibonacci 38.2% retracement of 0.8994/0.9200 upleg, where dips should find solid support.
Res: 0.9214; 0.9269; 0.9300; 0.9314
Sup: 0.9150; 0.9120; 0.9100; 0.9075
EURUSD
The Euro trades in a narrow range, after failing to sustain attempts above 1.38 handle, reinforced by daily Kijun-sen line as broken channel support line capped rallies. Narrow consolidation around 1.3780 is expected to precede fresh weakness towards 1.3748 base, as near-term technicals are negative. Break here to confirm lower top formation at 1.3874 and resume larger downtrend from 1.3965, towards 1.3720, 50% retracement of 1.3475/1.3965 upleg and 1.3700, higher base / daily 55SMA, with extension lower to open 1.3662, Fibonacci 61.8% retracement, reinforced by daily 100SMA. On the upside, 1.3800 offers immediate resistance, ahead of 1.3845, 25 Mar tops and pivotal 1.3867, 24 Mar peak, above which to shift near-term focus higher.
Res: 1.3800; 1.3845; 1.3867; 1.3900
Sup: 1.3780; 1.3759; 1.3748; 1.3720
GBPUSD
Cable extends near-term recovery phase off 1.6464, 24 Mar low and regained initial 1.6586 barrier, Fibonacci 38.2% retracement of the downleg from 1.6784 to 1.6464, approaching psychological 1.66 hurdle. Corrective action on overbought hourly studies should precede fresh attempt higher, as near-term technicals turned positive. Clear break above 1.66 barrier to confirm bottom at 1.6464, with extension to 1.6660 lower base and Fibonacci 61.8% retracement, required to complete 4-hour cup-and holder pattern and trigger further recovery. However, caution is required as daily technicals are negative and risk of lower top formation under 1.6660, remains in play. Solid support at 1.6545, Fibonacci 38.2% of 1.6464/1.6595 upleg, reinforced by hourly 55SMA, should ideally contain dips and keep freshly established bulls off 1.6464 in play.
Res: 1.6584; 1.6600; 1.6624; 1.6660
Sup: 1.6545; 1.6514; 1.6500; 1.6480
USDJPY
The pair’s near-term structure weakens, as the price dipped below near-term consolidation range floor and strong support at 102.00, also cracking the next support at 101.80. Hourly indicators are establishing in the negative territory, while 4-hour ones are attempting below the midlines that increases downside pressure. Clear break below 101.80 handle, also 61.8% retracement of 101.26/102.67 upleg, to confirm lower platform formation at 102.65 zone and trigger fresh weakness for possible retest of strong 101.20 base. Alternative scenario requires break above 102.67 to bring bulls back in play and resume recovery off 101.20 through Fibonacci 61.8% barrier at 102.77, towards levels above psychological 103.00 resistance, where near-term congestion to at 103.75 stands.
Res: 102.47; 102.67; 102.77; 103.15
Sup: 102.00; 101.71; 101.50; 101.20
AUDUSD
The pair maintains positive near-term tone and continues to trend higher, with near-term price action stabilizing above 0.9200 handle, after posting fresh annual high at 0.9244. Overall bulls see scope for further gains towards psychological 0.9300 barrier and 0.9314, Fibonacci 100% expansion of the wave from 0.8889, 03 Mar low. However, rallies may be interrupted by consolidative /corrective actions, as near-term studies are overbought. Initial supports lay at 0.9215/00, ahead of 0.9150, Fibonacci 38.2% of 0.8994/0.9244 upleg and previous peaks at 0.9137/32, above which any stronger pullback should be ideally contained.
Res: 0.9244; 0.9269; 0.9300; 0.9314
Sup: 0.9215; 0.9200; 0.9150; 0.9132
EURUSD
The Euro consolidates above the fresh low at 1.3704, posted last Friday, where the fall met its Fibonacci 76.4% expansion of the third wave off 1.3874, 24 Mar lower top. The second consecutive weekly close in red signals further downside, however, formation of Morning Star pattern on the daily chart suggests correction. Today’s close above initial 1.3770 and strong 1.3800 barrier, also Fibonacci 38.2% retracement of 1.3965/1.3704 downleg is required to confirm the pattern formation and allow for stronger bounce towards 1.3846 and pivotal 1.3874 barrier. Hourly studies are neutral, while negative tone prevails on 4-hour chart technicals, keeping the downside vulnerable. Violation of 1.37 handle, also near daily Ichimoku cloud top, to neutralize correction attempts and signal resumption of larger downtrend, with next targets standing at 1.3662/50, Fibonacci 61.8% retracement of 1.3475/1.3965 and 100% expansion of the wave from 1.3874.
Res: 1.3770; 1.3800; 1.3845; 1.3874
Sup: 1.3730; 1.3700; 1.3662; 1.3650
GBPUSD
Cable steadies above 1.66 support and consolidates fresh gains that peaked just ahead of pivotal 1.6665 barrier, break of which is required to confirm near-term base at 1.6464 and complete cup-and-holder pattern, for further retracement of 1.6821/1.6464 pullback. Break higher opens 1.6700/16 hurdles, ahead of trendline resistance at 1.6735, clearance of which to expose key barriers at 1.6784 and 1.6821, 07 Mar / 17 Feb peaks. Positive near-term studies support the notion, however, break of 1.6716/35 hurdles is required to confirm improvement of daily studies for eventual push towards 1.6821 peak.
Res: 1.6657; 1.6665; 1.6700; 1.6716
Sup: 1.6626; 1.6600; 1.6576; 1.6555
USDJPY
The pair eventually broke above near-term congestion tops at 102.67, attempting at psychological 103.00 barrier and 103.15, Fibonacci 76.4% retracement of 103.75/101.19 descend. Positive near-term studies keep the upside in focus, however, bulls may be delayed by overbought hourly conditions, with consolidative action to be ideally contained at previous range tops. Improving daily studies require clear break above 103 handle, also daily Ichimoku cloud top, to confirm bullish resumption towards pivotal resistance at 103.75, 07 Mar peak.
Res: 103.00; 103.15; 103.42; 103.75
Sup: 102.67; 102.46; 102.19; 102.00
AUDUSD
The pair maintains positive near-term tone and consolidates under fresh high at 0.9294, posted last Friday. Strong support at 0.9200, Fibonacci 38.2% of 0.9047/0.9294 upleg, stays intact for now, with break here required to confirm formation of daily evening star pattern and trigger stronger pullback towards 0.9170/41, 50% and 61.8% retracement, with the latter being reinforced by 200SMA. Overall positive outlook favors further upside, with initial targets laying at 0.9314, Fibonacci 100% expansion of the third wave from 0.8894 and 0.9336, Fibonacci 61.8% retracement of 0.9755/0.8658 descend.
Res: 0.9300; 0.9314; 0.9336; 0.9400
Sup: 0.9215; 0.9200; 0.9170; 0.9141
GOLD
Spot Gold remains under pressure, with fresh low at 1285 being posted last Friday and near-term consolidation above the latter under way. Previous strong support, now resistance at 1300, reinforced by 4-hour 20SMA and 200SMA, so far caps upside attempts. Overall negative tone and weekly close below psychological 1300 barrier, favor further downside, with bears to be interrupted by consolidative / corrective phases. Penetration of 1300 is required to confirm corrective action, which is seen ideally capped at 1316 lower platform. Only break here would delay bears for more significant correction. On the downside, 1288/85 offer initial supports, ahead of 1273, 100SMA and 1262, Fibonacci 61.8% retracement of 1182/1392 ascend.
Res: 1300; 1307; 1316; 1320
Sup: 1292; 1288; 1285; 1278
SILVER
Spot Silver consolidates fresh losses that found temporary support at 19.56 yesterday, with corrective action being so far capped under psychological 20.00 barrier. With hourly studies turning positive, further upside could be expected, as bullish MACD divergence is developing on 4-hour chart that is supporting the notion. However, sustained break above initial 20.00 barrier and lower platform at 20.20 is required to confirm recovery and avert immediate risk of extension towards 19.30/11 and key short-term support and target at 18.99, 30 Jan year-to-date low.
Res: 20.00; 20.20; 20.40; 20.56
Sup: 19.72; 19.56; 19.30; 19.11
EURUSD
The Euro has established positive tone on hourly chart, consolidating 1.3704/1.3807 recovery rally, despite failure to clear important 1.38 barrier, where 4-hour 55SMA capped for now. However, prevailing negative tone on 4-hour chart requires caution, as repeated upside rejection at 1.38 barrier, Fibonacci 38.2% retracement of 1.3965/1.3704, would risk fresh leg lower and retest near-term base and daily cloud top at 1.37 zone. Break here to resume downtrend off 1.3965, otherwise, sustained break above 1.38 hurdle would open 1.3835, 50% retracement / daily 20SMA and pivotal 1.3874, 24 Mar peak / near Fibonacci 61.8% retracement, above which to confirm formation of higher low at 1.3704 and shift focus towards 1.3946 and key 1.3965 resistance, peak of 13 Mar.
Res: 1.3807; 1.3845; 1.3874; 1.3900
Sup: 1.3760; 1.3721; 1.3700; 1.3662
GBPUSD
Cable continues to trend higher and broke above initial 1.6665 barrier to test 1.6685, Fibonacci 61.8% retracement of 1.6821/1.6464 descend so far. Hourly studies are positive, while overextended 4-hour conditions and yesterday’s Doji candle, warn of possible stall. Sustained break above 1.6716/33, 13 Mar high / bear-trendline off 1.6821, is required to confirm bullish resumption and open 1.6784, 07 Mar peak and key 1.6821 barrier, 17 Feb year-to-date high. Corrective dips should be contained above 1.66 handle, Fibonacci 38.2% retracement of 1.6464/1.6685 upleg, reinforced by 4-hour 55SMA, to keep bulls intact.
Res: 1.6685; 1.6700; 1.6716; 1.6733
Sup: 1.6655; 1.6638; 1.6600; 1.6574
USDJPY
The pair remains supported and aims towards key near-term barrier at 103.75, 07 Mar peak, to fully retrace 103.75/101.19 descend, after the price stabilizes above psychological 103 barrier, also daily cloud top. Near-term technicals are positive, however, 4-hour RSI enters overbought zone and may delay bulls. Neutral daily studies require break above 103.75, two-month congestion top, to bring fresh bulls in play. Initial supports lay at 103.00/102.88, with higher platform and Fibonacci 38.2% retracement of 101.71/103.42 upleg, offering solid support and seen as ideal reversal point for stronger dips.
Res: 103.42; 103.75; 104.00; 104.32
Sup: 103.00; 102.77; 102.67; 102.46
AUDUSD
The pair maintains positive near-term tone and consolidates after cracking psychological 0.9300 barrier. Near-term corrective action was contained above strong support at 0.9200, Fibonacci 38.2% of 0.9047/0.9294 upleg, keeping near-term bulls firmly in play for test of immediate targets at 0.9314, Fibonacci 100% expansion of the third wave from 0.8894 and 0.9336, Fibonacci 61.8% retracement of 0.9755/0.8658 descend, break of which to confirm wave principles and open 0.9446, 19/20 Now 2013 peaks and 0.9477, Fibonacci 138.2% expansion. Only loss of 0.9200 base would delay bulls and expose strong supports at 0.9140 zone, previous peaks and 200SMA.
Res: 0.9302; 0.9314; 0.9336; 0.9400
Sup: 0.9254; 0.9215; 0.9200; 0.9170
GOLD
Spot Gold remains under strong pressure and resumes downtrend off 1392 peak, interrupted by 1285/1298 consolidative phase. With psychological 1300 barrier, also 200SMA, being established as strong resistance, fresh weakness through previous low at 1285, approaches dynamic support at 1273, daily 100SMA, with 1262, Fibonacci 61.8% retracement of 1182/1392 ascend, coming in focus. Overall bearish tone keeps the downside favored, with consolidative /corrective action on oversold studies, seen preceding fresh weakness. Lower platform at 1300 is expected to limit upside attempts, while only sustained break here would put immediate bears on hold.
Res: 1290; 1300; 1306; 1316
Sup: 1277; 1273; 1262; 1252
SILVER
Spot Silver trades in extended consolidative phase above fresh low at 19.56, posted on 27 Mar, with corrective action being so far capped under psychological 20.00 barrier. Yesterday’s rejection at 20.00 hurdle and fresh slide below the range mid-point, keeps near-term studies in negative mode and maintains downside risk. Penetration through 19.56 handle to open interim supports at 19.30/11, 08 Jan 2014 / 19 Dec 2013 lows, for extension towards key support at 18.99, 30 Jan low, return to which to fully retrace 18.99/22/15 ascend. Only sustained break above 20.00 hurdle would sideline immediate bears and allow for stronger corrective action towards 201.19, 25 Mar high and 20.40, Fibonacci 38.2% retracement of 21.77/19.56 descend.
Res: 19.91; 20.00; 20.20; 20.40
Sup: 19.62; 19.56; 19.30; 19.11
EURUSD
The Euro’s near-term price action remains at 1.38 zone, following several attempts to break higher that formed hourly bullish pennant. Positive near-term studies, however, are supportive for further advance, with clearance of strong 1.38 hurdle, also Fibonacci 38.2% retracement of 1.3965/1.3704 descend and daily Kijun-sen line, seen as a trigger for fresh recovery towards 1.3835/45, lower tops / 50% retracement and 1.3756, bull trendline off 1.3965, with key near-term resistance at 1.3874, 24 Mar peak, expected to come in focus on a break. Alternatively, rejection at 1.38 zone would signal further congestion, while extension below higher platform at 1.3765, also mid-point of 1.3704/1.3814 upleg, would bring bears back in play.
Res: 1.3845; 1.3874; 1.3900; 1.3946
Sup: 1.3877; 1.3765; 1.3745; 1.3700
GBPUSD
Cable enters consolidative phase after fresh bulls peaked at 1.6685, Fibonacci 61.8% retracement of 1.6821/1.6464 descend. Strong support and breakpoint at 1.6600, so far stays intact, as the pullback was contained by daily cloud top at 1.6615 and subsequent bounce is under way. With near-term studies gaining traction, focus remains at 1.6685 peak, clearance of which and trendline resistance at 1.6730, to open next pivot at 1.6716, 13 Mar peak and signal eventual return to key barriers at 1.6784, 07 Mar high and 1.6821, 17 Feb 2014 high. Only loss of 1.66 handle would delay immediate bulls and risk stronger pullback.
Res: 1.6685; 1.6700; 1.6716; 1.6730
Sup: 1.6615; 1.6600; 1.6574; 1.6548
USDJPY
The pair remains supported and eventually broke above key near-term barrier at 103.75, 07 Mar peak, fully retracing 103.75/101.19 descend. Formation of Three White Soldiers pattern on a daily chart suggests further upside, with break above psychological 104.00 barrier, expected to open 104.32, Fibonacci 76.4% of 105.43/100.74 descend and expose upper targets at 105 zone. However, bulls may be delayed by consolidative / corrective action, as near-term studies are overbought. Psychological 103 support, also 38.2% retracement of 101.71/103.92 upleg and higher platform at 102.80, also 50% retracement, are seen as ideal reversal points to keep near-term bulls intact.
Res: 104.00; 104.32; 104.83; 105.00
Sup: 103.59; 103.42; 103.00; 102.80
AUDUSD
The pair trades in extended consolidative phase off 0.9300 barrier, following repeated upside rejection. Near-term price action is entrenched within 0.9220/0.9300 range, with studies losing traction. This may signal deeper pullback, as hourly technicals are negative and 4-hour bearish momentum is building up. Break below initial 0.9220 support will be seen as initial signal, while loss of psychological 0.92 handle and 0.9184, Fibonacci 38.2% of 0.8994/0.9302 upleg, is required to confirm of near-term double-top pattern and expose 0.9148, 50% retracement / bull-trendline off 0.8923 low and previous congestion tops at 0.9135 zone, reinforced by 200SMA, where stronger pullback should be ideally contained. Overall bullish tone keeps the upside favored in the short-term
Res: 0.9302; 0.9314; 0.9336; 0.9400
Sup: 0.9220; 0.9200; 0.9184; 0.9148
GOLD
Spot Gold trades in extended consolidative phase off fresh low at 1277, signaling possible basing attempt. However, overall negative tone keeps the downside favored, as brief corrective attempts were capped by descending 10SMA at 1287. Break here is required to signal recovery, with notion being supported by oversold 4-hour conditions. Extension higher to open strong 1300 zone barrier, 200SMA / psychological resistance, above which stronger recovery action could be anticipated. Otherwise, completion of near-term consolidation and fresh extension of larger downtrend off 1392 peak, would be likely near-term scenario. Break below 1277 to open 1272, 100SMA and 1262, Fibonacci 61.8% of 1182/1392, also daily Ichimoku cloud base.
Res: 1287; 1296; 1300; 1306
Sup: 1277; 1272; 1262; 1252
SILVER
Spot Silver trades in extended consolidative phase above fresh low at 19.56, posted on 27 Mar, with corrective action being so far capped under psychological 20.00 barrier, reinforced by 4-hour 55SMA. Neutral hourly technicals favor further sideways movement, however, improving conditions on 4-hour chart do not rule out stronger recovery. Break above 20.00 barrier will be seen as initial signal, with regain of 20.20, required to confirm near-term base formation and open 20.40, Fibonacci 38.2% retracement of 21.77/19.56 descend. Conversely, loss of 19.56 handle to open interim supports at 19.30/11, 08 Jan 2014 / 19 Dec 2013 lows, for extension towards key support at 18.99, 30 Jan low, return to which to fully retrace 18.99/22/15 ascend.
Res: 20.00; 20.20; 20.40; 20.56
Sup: 19.62; 19.56; 19.30; 19.11
EURUSD
The Euro is losing traction after triple rejection at 1.38 resistance zone triggered pullback to 1.3752 so far, retracing near 61.8% of 1.3704/1.3819 rally. Formation of bearish engulfing pattern suggests further easing and possible retest of strong 1.37 support zone, previous low of 28 Mar and daily cloud top. Negative hourly studies and 4-hour indicators breaking below the midlines, support the notion, with violation of 1.37 handle to signal continuation of bear-channel of 1.3965 peak. Recent low at 1.3752, along with Fibonacci 61.8% of 1.3704/1.3819, offer immediate support, ahead of 31 Mar spike low and daily 55SMA at 1.3721 and pivotal 1.3704, low of 28 Mar, below which bearish resumption would look for 1.3680, 100SMA and 1.3662, 61.8% retracement of larger 1.3475/1.3965 ascend. Session high and previous 31 Mar / 01 Apr consolidation lows at1.3770, offer initial resistance, with 1.3785, 50% retracement and hourly 20/55SMA’s bear cross, expected to limit upside attempts.
Res: 1.3770; 1.3785; 1.3800; 1.3819
Sup: 1.3752; 1.3720; 1.3700; 1.3662
GBPUSD
Cable remains in near-term consolidative sideways mode, with price action moving within 1.6620/60 range. Near-term base is forming at 1.6620, where the price found solid support, reinforced by daily cloud top and should ideally keep the downside protected for fresh attempt higher. Hourly studies are neutral, while 4-hour bulls remain in play, however, downside risk would remain in play, as daily studies are lacking momentum. Holding below initial barriers at 1.6716/20, previous peak / trendline resistance, would require caution, as downside risk is expected to increase in case of loss of 1.6620/00 handles that may trigger fresh weakness and signal lower top formation.
Res: 1.6660; 1.6685; 1.6700; 1.6716
Sup: 1.6620; 1.6600; 1.6574; 1.6548
USDJPY
The pair remains supported and fresh extension higher cracked psychological 104 barrier, after the price broke and close above key 103.75, 07 Mar peak. Clearance of 104 hurdle opens next target at 104.32, Fibonacci 76.4% of 105.43/100.74 descend and lower tops of 16 / 23 Jan at 104.93/83, along with psychological 105 barrier. Overall picture remains bulls and keeps the upside favored, however, overbought 4-hour studies warn of corrective action, before fresh attempt higher. Initial support lies at 103.57, yesterday’s low and 103.42, 31 Mar previous high, ahead of 103.16, Fibonacci 38.2% retracement of 101.71/104.06 upleg and psychological 103 support, where corrective dips should ideally find support.
Res: 104.06; 104.32; 104.83; 105.00
Sup: 103.57; 103.42; 103.00; 102.80
AUDUSD
The pair’s near-term tone weakened, as the price probed below initial support and consolidation floor at 0.9220 and tested psychological 0.9200 support so far. With hourly studies turning negative and 4-hour indicators attempting below their midlines that keeps the downside vulnerable. Sustained break lower and violation of 0.9184, Fibonacci 38.2% retracement of 0.8994/0.9302, to confirm reversal and mark near-term top at 0.9302, for further easing towards strong support at 0.9135 zone, previous peaks / 50% retracement / trendline support and 200SMA, below which to fully establish bears. Otherwise, near-term bulls will remain in play for eventual break above 0.93 handle and resumption of larger uptrend from 0.8658, 24 Jan annual low.
Res: 0.9262; 0.9302; 0.9314; 0.9336
Sup: 0.9200; 0.9184; 0.9148; 0.9112
GOLD
Spot Gold trades in extended consolidative phase off fresh low at 1277, signaling possible basing attempt. Hourly technicals improved and see scope for possible extension of the recent recovery peak at 1294, for attempt at pivotal 1296, 200SMA and 1300 barriers, break of which to signal near-term base and allow for stronger correction. Indicators of 4-hour chart are approaching their midlines and support the notion, however, failure to clearly break above initial 1300 barrier, would keep risk of fresh weakness in play, as larger picture bears remain fully in play. Extension below initial 1287 support, 01 Apr high / yesterday’s low / hourly 20/55SMA’s bull-cross, to bring near-term bears back in play and risk return to 1277 base and possible bearish resumption on violation of the latter.
Res: 1294; 1296; 1300; 1306
Sup: 1287; 1280; 1277; 1273
SILVER
Spot Silver attempts to stabilize above near-term consolidation top at 20.00, as fresh extension higher peaked at 201.13 so far and signals near-term basing attempt. Near-term studies turned positive and support further recovery, with regain of the next barrier at 20.20, 100SMA, expected to open way towards the next pivot at 20.40, Fibonacci 38.2% retracement of 21.77/19.56 descend and confirm reversal. However, recovery action is seen limited, as daily bears are firmly in play, with death-cross formation of 20/200SMA and bear-cross of 20/55SMA’s, keeping the downside pressured.
Res: 20.13; 20.20; 20.40; 20.56
Sup: 19.90; 19.80; 19.67; 19.62
EURUSD
The Euro returned to strength, with fresh acceleration of recovery from 1.3671, 04 Apr low, probing above psychological 1.380 barrier. The rally was capped just under pivotal 1.3820 resistance, 02 Apr previous high / Fibonacci 38.2% retracement of 1.3965/1.3671 rally and bear-channel resistance. Positive near-term technicals are supportive for eventual break here, to confirm near-term bottom and open way for further recovery towards 1.3853, Fibonacci 61.8% retracement and lower top of 24 Mar at 1.3874. Corrective actions on overbought near-term studies are expected to precede fresh push higher, with 1.3750/60 zone, Fibonacci 38.2% retracement of 1.3671/1.3810 rally and previous base of 20/25 Mar, seen as ideal reversal point. Any weakness below 1.3740 higher platform / daily cloud top and rally’s mid-point, would delay immediate bulls.
Res: 1.3810; 1.3820; 1.3853; 1.3874
Sup: 1.3777; 1.3757; 1.3740; 1.3724
GBPUSD
Cable surged yesterday, leaving higher base at 1.6548 and resuming the bull-phase off 1.6464, 24 Mar low, after clearing 1.6683, 31 Mar previous top. Break above bear-channel resistance and completion of inverted head-and shoulders pattern on 4-hour chart, sees scope for eventual push towards 1.6784, 07 Mar lower top and attack at key near-term barrier at 1.6821, 17 Feb peak. Near-term studies are positive, however, overbought conditions suggest pause ahead of fresh push higher, with previous peaks at 1.6716 and 1.6683 offering immediate supports. Further dips should be ideally contained at 1.6650, 50% retracement of 1.6548/1.6753 upleg / daily Tenkan-sen line, to keep the structure intact. Conversely, slide below previous barriers at 1.6620/00, reinforced by daily cloud top, will be bearish.
Res: 1.6753; 1.6784; 1.6800; 1.6821
Sup: 1.6716; 1.6683; 1.6650; 1.6620
USDJPY
The pair resumes the downtrend from 104.11 peak, as fresh acceleration lower cleared 102, psychological / trendline support and found temporary footstep at 101.54. With the biggest part of 101.20/104.11 rally being already retraced, risk of retesting strong 101.20 base remain in play. Bears may be delayed as near-term studies are oversold, with initial 102 barrier being regained and rallies expected to find solid resistance at 102.65, previous support and 102.83, 50% retracement of 104.11/101.54, ahead of psychological 103 barrier, reinforced by double MA’s bear-cross, where rallies should be capped. Violation of 102.20 base is expected to open another key support at 100.74, low of 04 Feb 2014.
Res: 102.50; 102.65; 102.83; 103.00
Sup: 101.83; 101.54; 101.20; 100.74
AUDUSD
The pair the pair remains supported and moves higher after eventual break above near-term congestion tops at 0.93 triggered fresh extension of larger uptrend that commenced from 0.8658. Fresh bulls probed above bull-channel resistance and Fibonacci 61.8% of 0.9755/0.8658 descend, on extension to 0.9385 so far, focusing psychological 0.9400 barrier and 0.9477, Fibonacci 138.2% expansion of the wave from 0.8889, 03 Mar higher low. However, overbought near-term studies see consolidative/corrective phase preceding fresh push higher. Initial support lies at 0.9330, ahead of more significant 0.9316, Fibonacci 38.2% of 0.9204/0.9385 upleg, reinforced by hourly 55SMA and 0.9300, previous range tops, where corrective dips should face good support.
Res: 0.9385; 0.9400; 0.9477; 0.9500
Sup: 0.9330; 0.9316; 0.9300; 0.9273
GOLD
Spot Gold remains supported and resumes recovery rally off 1277 low, after leaving higher base 1295. Fresh bulls tested next target at 1315, 25/26 Mar lower platform / daily Cloud top, above which to open 1319/21, daily 20SMA / Fibonacci 38.2% retracement of 1392/1277 descend, with break here to confirm bottom at 1277 for further recovery. Positive near-term studies are supportive, with consolidative phase expected to precede fresh extension higher. Conolidation floor at 1306 offers immediate support, ahead of 1300/1297, psychological support / 200SMA and 1295 base, where stronger dips should ideally find footstep.
Res: 1315; 1321; 1334; 1342
Sup: 1306; 1300; 1297; 1295
SILVER
Spot Silver trades in near-term sideways mode after recovery attempts above initial 20.00 barrier failed to sustain break. Near-term studies are losing traction as upside attempts above psychological 20.00 barrier stalled at 20.14. Sustained break above current range top at 20.21, reinforced by daily 100SMA and regain of 20.40, Fibonacci 38.2% retracement of 21.77/19.56 descend, is seen as minimum requirement to avert immediate downside risk and signal stronger recovery. Otherwise, increased downside risk will remain in play, as larger picture studies are bearish and 20/200SMA’s death-cross and 20/55 bearish cross, keeping the downside pressured. Completion of near-term consolidation expected to fresh weakness for final push towards short-term target at 18.99, 30 Jan low.
Res: 20.09; 20.17; 20.21; 20.40
Sup: 19.84; 19.77; 19.65; 19.56