Windsor Brokers - Short Term Technical Analysis for Majors (updated daily) - page 82
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EURUSD
The Euro trades in near-term consolidative phase, off fresh low at 1.3570, where the pullback found temporary support just ahead of daily Ichimoku cloud top at 1.3563 and main bull trendline at 1.3550. The price action is entrenched within 1.3600/55 range, with hourly studies in neutral mode. However, negative tone prevails on 4-hour chart that keeps the downside at risk, while the price holds below initial barriers at 1.3664/69, Fibonacci 38.2% of 1.3817/1.3570 and 4-hour 55DMA. Break lower to trigger fresh bear-leg and open next targets at 1.3525, higher platform / Fibonacci 61.8% retracement of 1.3294/1.3892 upleg, reinforced by daily 100DMA / round figure support. Conversely, sustained break above 1.3570 hurdle is required to avert immediate downside risk and allow for stronger bounce towards strong 1.3700/20 resistance zone, 50% / 61.8% retracement of 1.3817/1.3570 / bearish 20/55DMA’s crossover.
Res: 1.3655; 1.3670; 1.3700; 1.3720
Sup: 1.3600; 1.3570; 1.3525; 1.3500
GBPUSD
Cable maintains negative tone off fresh high at 1.6602, as 4-hour studies remain negative and near-term consolidation above fresh reversal low at 1.6336, stays capped by 20/55DMA’s bearish crossover and Fibonacci 38.2% of 1.6602/1.6336 descend at 1.6435. Hourly studies are neutral, as the price action consolidates within 1.6373/1.6435 range, confirmed by yesterday’s Doji, with downside seen vulnerable while 1.6435 caps. Extension higher needs to clear key near-term barrier at 1.6470, 03/01 lower top / 50% retracement, to bring bulls in play and signal near-term base. Otherwise, risk of lower top formation and fresh leg lower, would remain in play.
Res: 1.6435; 1.6473; 1.6500; 1.6539
Sup: 1.6375; 1.6336; 1.6300; 1.6254
USDJPY
The pair returns to strength, as recovery attempt from fresh low at 103.90 broke above trendline resistance at 104.45 and cracked lower top / psychological barrier at 105.00. With 4-hour indicators breaking into positive territory, near-term focus turns towards key barriers and double-top at 105.40 zone, as fresh bulls confirm higher low formation at 104 zone, strong trendline / Fibonacci support. Regain of 105.40 hurdle to signal completion of near-term corrective phase and resume larger uptrend. However, hesitation ahead of 105.40 could be expected on overbought hourly studies, with corrective action to be ideally contained above 104.50, 50% retracement of 103.90/105.12 upleg / hourly bullish 20/55DMA’s crossover.
Res: 105.12; 105.43; 105.58; 106.00
Sup: 104.82; 104.65; 104.50; 104.32
AUDUSD
Near-term structure remains weak, as the reversal from 0.9003 upside rejection probed below 0.8900 support. Negative hourly and 4-hour indicators breaking below the midlines, favor further weakness, as the price so far retraced over 61.8% of 0.8842/0.9003 recovery rally. Clear break below 0.89 handle to open initial 0.8842 support, with risk of retesting key support and 2013 low at 0.8819, seen in extension. Key near-term barrier and breakpoint lies at 0.9000 zone and only break here would improve the structure and allow for stronger corrective action.
Res: 0.8935; 0.8975; 0.9000; 0.9033
Sup: 0.8892; 0.8880; 0.8842; 0.8819
EURUSD
The Euro extended near-term weakness from 1.3892 peak, to test strong support of bull-trendline off 1.2754 low and Daily Ichimoku cloud top at 1.3550 zone. The support contained bears for now, with corrective action under way, testing initial barrier at 1.3600/10, round-figure / hourly 20DMA, ahead of lower platform / Fibonacci 38.2% retracement of 1.3817/1.3552 / 4-hour 55DMA, where rallies should be ideally capped to maintain bears. Technicals on lower timeframes remain negative and favor further downside, once corrective action is completed, with slide below 1.3550 to open 1.3525, higher platform / Fibonacci 61.8% retracement of 1.3294/1.3892 upleg, reinforced by daily 100DMA and 1.3500, round-figure support in extension. Alternative scenario sees break above 1.3650 as a trigger for stronger bounce towards 1.3684, 50% retracement and 1.3716, 61.8% / 20/55DMA’s bearish crossover / broken bull-trendline off 1.3294.
Res: 1.3610; 1.3650; 1.3684; 1.3700
Sup: 1.3552; 1.3525; 1.3500; 1.3461
GBPUSD
Cable extends near-term corrective phase off fresh low at 1.6336, after break above initial barrier and consolidation top at 1.3438, also Fibonacci 38.2% of 1.6602/1.6336, tested next target at1.6469, 50% retracement. Positive hourly studies and 4-hour indicators breaking above the midlines, support further recovery, with break above 1.6469/73, Fibonacci barrier / 03/01 lower top, is required to confirm formation of higher low at 1.6336 and trigger further gains towards 1.6500, psychological resistance / Fibonacci 61.8%. Initial support lies at 1.6434, previous resistance, reinforced by hourly 20DMA, with 1.64 zone, bullish 20/55DMA’s crossover / mid-point of entire 1.6336/1.6469 rally, expected to contain corrective dips.
Res: 1.6469; 1.6473; 1.6500; 1.6539
Sup: 1.6434; 1.6400; 1.6375; 1.6336
USDJPY
The pair returns to strength, as recovery attempt from fresh low at 103.90 broke above trendline resistance and lower tops at 140.83/94, to crack psychological barrier at 105.00, on extension to 105.12 so far. With near-term studies holding positive tone, near-term focus is shifted towards key barriers and double-top at 105.40 zone, as fresh bulls confirm higher low formation at 104 zone, strong trendline / Fibonacci support. Regain of 105.40 hurdle to signal completion of near-term corrective phase and resume larger uptrend. Corrective action off 105.12 was so far contained by ascending hourly 55DMA at 104.65, 38.2% of 103.90/105.12, with triangular consolidation under 105 handle being under way. Near-term bulls would come under pressure in case the price slides below 103.65 and 103.50 supports, the latter marking 50% retracement.
Res: 105.00; 105.12; 105.43; 105.58
Sup: 104.75; 104.65; 104.50; 104.32
AUDUSD
Near-term structure remains weak, as the reversal from 0.9003 upside rejection sustains break below 0.8900 support. Negative near-term technicals favor further weakness, as the price so far retraced over 76.4% of 0.8842/0.9003 recovery rally, on extension to 0.8863 so far. Initial support at 0.8842 is under pressure, with risk of retesting key support and 2013 low at 0.8819, seen in extension, break of which to resume larger downtrend and expose the next target at 0.8769, Aug 2010low. Key near-term barrier and breakpoint lies at 0.9000 zone and only break here would neutralize near-term bears.
Res: 0.8892; 0.8910; 0.8951; 0.8975
Sup: 0.8863; 0.8842; 0.8819; 0.8800
EURUSD
The Euro ended week in positive tone, following last Friday’s strong rally from 1.3550 zone, where higher base was formed, with support being reinforced bull-trendline off 1.2754 / daily 100DMA. Rally to 1.3686, so far retraced 50% of 1.3817/1.3547 downleg, with near-term technicals returning to bullish mode. Consolidation on overextended hourly studies is under way and so far contained at previous double-top at 1.3655, with further upside seen favored in the near-term. Immediate barriers lay at 1.3700/15 zone, round-figure / Fibonacci 61.8% retracement / daily Tenkan-sen / Kijun-sen bearish cross, above which to open way towards strong 1.38 resistance zone. Any further dips should be ideally contained above 1.3630, 50% retracement of Friday’s 1.3567/1.3686 rally, to keep bulls in play.
Res: 1.3686; 1.3700; 1.3715; 1.3753
Sup: 1.3655; 1.3630; 1.3612; 1.3595
GBPUSD
Cable maintains positive near-term tone, as weekly close occurred just under 1.65 barrier, following last Friday’s bumpy post-US data ride, when price dipped to 1.6380, but quickly recovered losses. As 1.65 resistance, also Fibonacci 61.8% retracement of 1.6602/1.6336 descend, has been cracked, further upside is favored and requires clear break here to open key resistance at 1.6602, 02/01 peak. Positively aligned near-term studies support the notion, with corrective dips allowed to 1.6400, 61.8% of last Friday’s 1.6380/1.6515 rally, otherwise, downside pressure would increase on a violation of 1.6400/1.6380 supports
Res: 1.6450; 1.6500; 1.6515; 1.6539; 1.6577
Sup: 1.6480; 1.6447; 1.6430; 1.6400
USDJPY
The pair lost ground after last Friday’s upside rejection on approach to key 105.40 barrier and subsequent acceleration lower, losing 104.26 trendline support and more significant 104 base. Fresh weakness approaches next support 103.00, psychological support / Fibonacci 61.8% retracement of 101.60/105.43 ascend, with bearish near-term technicals keeping the downside in focus and the notion being supported by daily Evening Doji star. However, oversold conditions of lower timeframes studies, suggest consolidative / corrective phase, ahead of fresh weakness, with no reversal signal being generated yet. On the upside, previous supports at 103.90/104.00, offer initial and solid resistance, ahead of broken bear-trendline at 104.30, also 50% of last Friday’s fall, where rallies should be ideally capped.
Res: 103.90; 104.04; 104.30; 104.55
Sup: 103.24; 103.00; 102.50; 102.14
AUDUSD
The pair regained strength and eventually broke above three-week congestion top at 0.9000, with fresh extension to 0.9046, marking over 61.8% retracement of 0.9165/0.8819 downleg. Immediate threat of fresh weakness and resumption of larger downtrend, is now sidelined, as near-term price action moves in corrective mode. Regain of key barrier at 0.9165, 10/12 high, is required to neutralize bears and confirm base at 0.8820 zone. However, overbought conditions of 1 and 4-hour chart studies, would delay fresh upside attempts and allow for consolidative/corrective action, with initial support laying at 0.9000, reinforced by hourly 20DMA and 0.8960, 50% of 0.8879/0.9040 upleg, reinforced by hourly 55DMA, expected to contain. On the upside, next hurdles lay at 0.9083/91, Fibonacci 76.4% / 4-hour 55DMA, with clearance of psychological 0.9100 barrier, to clear way towards key 0.9165 level. Reversing daily indicators are supportive for further recovery action.
Res: 0.9040; 0.9083; 0.9100; 0.9165
Sup: 0.9000; 0.8978; 0.8960; 0.8940
EURUSD
The Euro maintains positive near-term tone and attempts above consolidation top at 1.3686, with price action being underpinned by hourly 55DMA. Positive 4-hour studies see the upside favored in the near-term, with break above initial resistance at 1.3686, also near 50% retracement of 1.3817/1.3547 downleg, to open next barrier at 1.3714, Fibonacci 61.8% and 1.3753, 76.4% retracement in extension. Sustained break above 1.37 hurdle is required to expose strong 1.38 resistance zone and confirm near-term base at 1.3547. Initial support lies at 1.3650, 55DMA, below which comes 1.3636, consolidation floor / Fibonacci 38.2% of 1.3547/1.3698 upleg and 1.3623/00, 50% / 61.8%/trendline support, loss of which to bring bears in play and risk return to key 1.3547 support, 09/01 low / daily 100DMA.
Res: 1.3700; 1.3715; 1.3753; 1.3800
Sup: 1.3636; 1.3623; 1.3600; 1.3567
GBPUSD
Cable lost ground after repeated rejection at 1.65 barrier triggered sharp two-legged fall that nearly fully retraced 1.6336/1.6515 upleg on a dip to 1.6345. Freshly established bears on lower timeframes and formation of lower top at 1.6515, see increased downside risk for break below 1.6336 handle towards immediate supports at 1.6316, higher platform / Fibonacci 38.2% of 1.5853/1.6602 and psychological 1.6300 support, also Fibonacci 76.4% expansion of the third wave from 1.6515, below which the wave could extend to 1.6234, its 100% expansion and 1.6212, 17/12 low. Conversely, holding above 1.6336, would prolong consolidation and signal basing attempt, with bounce through pivotal 1.6430/40 barriers, required to confirm.
Res: 1.6427; 1.6445; 1.6464; 1.6500
Sup: 1.6400; 1.6366; 1.6345; 1.6336
USDJPY
The pair lost ground after last Friday’s upside rejection on approach to key 105.40 barrier and subsequent acceleration through trendline support and 104 base. Fresh extension lower cracked 103.00, psychological support / Fibonacci 61.8% retracement of 101.60/105.43 ascend. Negative near-term technicals keep the downside in focus, with corrective action on oversold hourlies, seen preceding fresh weakness. Bounce from fresh low at 102.84, through initial barrier at 103.55 needs to clear 103.69/80, 55DMA / Fibonacci 38.2% of 105.34/102.84 and regain important 104.00 handle, to avert immediate downside risk. Otherwise, lower top formation and further retracement towards 102.50, Fibonacci 76.4% of 101.60/105.43 and 102.00, psychological support / Fibonacci 38.2% of larger 96.55/105.43 ascend, would be likely near-term scenario.
Res: 103.80; 104.00; 104.39; 104.75
Sup: 103.22; 102.84; 102.50; 102.14
AUDUSD
The pair regained strength and eventually broke above three-week congestion top at 0.9000, with fresh extension to 0.9084, 76.4% retracement of 0.9165/0.8819 downleg, signaling further recovery. Break above psychological 0.9100 barrier and regain of key barrier at 0.9165, 10/12 high, is required to neutralize bears and confirm base at 0.8820 zone. However, corrective pullback on overbought conditions of 1 and 4-hour chart studies, would delay fresh upside attempts, with dips facing initial support at 0.9000, Fibonacci 38.2% of 0.8879/0.9084 upleg, reinforced by hourly 55DMA and 0.8982, 50% retracement, where further dips should be contained.
Res: 0.9044; 0.9083; 0.9100; 0.9165
Sup: 0.9000; 0.8982; 0.8957; 0.8927
EURUSD
The Euro’s near-term tone weakened, as the price failed to clear psychological 1.37 barrier after brief probe above recent range top at 1.3686 and subsequent easing cracked range’s lower boundary at 1.3636. Hourly studies turned negative, with downside risk towards Fibonacci 50% and 61.8% of 1.3547/1.3698 upleg, being in play. On the other side, overall picture remains bullish, with positive 4-hour conditions being supportive for renewed attempt higher, once corrective phase is completed. Dips should be contained at / above 1.36 handle, also trendline support, to keep the scenario valid. Otherwise, risk of lower top formation at 1.3698 and return to initial support at 1.3550, 09/01 low / daily 100DMA, will remain on the table.
Res: 1.3643; 1.3657; 1.3689; 1.3700
Sup: 1.3600; 1.3583; 1.3567; 1.3552
GBPUSD
Cable remains in near-term directionless mode, trading within 1.6510 and 1.6336 range, with the price action moving below range’s midpoint. Hourly studies are losing traction after yesterday’s rejection at 1.6463, with 4-hour technicals being in neutral mode. This sees potential for prolonged sideways trading, with break of either boundary required to define near-term direction. Positive daily studies keep the upside focused, however, loss of initial support and higher base at 1.6340 zone, as well as psychological 1.6300, also Fibonacci 61.8% retracement of 1.6212/1.6602, would undermine the structure and risk deeper pullback.
Res: 1.6400; 1.6426; 1.6463; 1.6490
Sup: 1.6375; 1.6366; 1.6336; 1.6300
USDJPY
The pair regained strength on yesterday’s bounce from fresh low at 102.84, as subsequent acceleration peaked at 104.46 and retraced over 61.8% of 105.34/102.84 downleg. Corrective pullback on overbought hourly conditions should find support around 103.70, near mid-point of entire rally, to keep fresh bulls in play, however, still weak 4hour conditions require caution. Regain of 105 handle to confirm higher low formation and re-focus key barriers at 105.34/43, conversely, slide below 103.70 would risk further weakness and retest of 103.00/102.84 supports.
Res: 104.46; 104.60; 105.05; 105.34
Sup: 104.00; 103.65; 103.46; 103.22
AUDUSD
The pair lost ground again after recovery stalled at 0.9083 and subsequent pullback lost 0.9000/0.8980 support, to extend weakness to psychological 0.8900 support. This confirms false break above near-term range and shifts near-term focus lower, as near-term technicals turned negative. Consolidation around 0.89 support is seen on oversold hourly conditions, with corrective rallies to face resistances at 0.8950/70 and 0.9000, previous support and bearish 20/55DMA’s cross, seen capping for now. Extension below 0.8900 handle would risk return to near-term base and key support at 0.8820 zone.
Res: 0.8922; 0.8950; 0.8970; 0.9000
Sup: 0.8879; 0.8842; 0.8819; 0.8800
EURUSD
The Euro remains under pressure in the near-term, as yesterday’s extension of two-day pullback from 1.3698 peak retested strong support at 1.3580 zone, where trendline support and daily Ichimoku cloud top limit the downside attempts for now. Negative tone prevails on 4-hour chart, while hourly structure improves on corrective bounce above 1.36 barrier that test hourly pivot at 1.3625, Fibonacci 38.2% of 1.3698/1.3580 / 55DMA. Break here to trigger stronger recovery towards the next significant hurdle at 1.3655, previous consolidation range floor and Fibonacci 61.8% retracement. Key near-term barrier lies at 1.3700, top of near-term 1.3580/1.3700 congestion, with break above to signal resumption of recovery phase from 1.3547. However, weak overall tone, with daily indicators entering negative territory, sees the downside vulnerable, with loss of key support and pivotal point at 1.3580, seen as a trigger for further easing towards 1.3547, 09/01 low, reinforced by daily 100DMA and 1.3522/00, Fibonacci 61.8% of 1.3294/1.3892 / round figure support, in extension.
Res: 1.3625; 1.3655; 1.3700; 1.3714
Sup: 1.3600; 1.3580; 1.3547; 1.3522
GBPUSD
Cable’s near-term focus shifts lower, as the price probes below near-term congestion low at 1.6340 zone. Extension near psychological 1.63 support, so far retraced 38.2% of larger 1.5853/1.6602 ascend at 1.6316, also Fibonacci 76.4% of 1.6212/1.6602, below which to complete daily H&S pattern and trigger further easing, as extension of pullback from 1.6602, 02/01 peak. Weak near-term studies support the notion, with lower platform at 1.6375, also Fibonacci 38.2% of 1.6463/1.6321 descend, offering initial resistance and 1.64 barrier, 61.8%, expected to cap corrective rallies.
Res: 1.6375; 1.6409; 1.6436; 1.6463
Sup: 1.6320; 1.6300; 1.6261; 1.6212
USDJPY
The pair remains positive and extends near-term rally off 102.84, 13/01 low, close to strong 105 resistance zone and previous congestion tops. Positive near-term technicals support attempt through 105 hurdle for final push towards key barrier and tops at 105.40/43, regain of which to complete 105.43/102.84 corrective phase. Corrective dips should be ideally contained at 104.20/00, 15/01 higher low / Fibonacci 38.2% of 102.84/104.93 / round figure support, to keep fresh bulls intact.
Res: 105.05; 105.34; 105.43; 105.58
Sup: 104.44; 104.13; 104.00; 103.65
AUDUSD
The pair accelerated lower after full retracement of 0.8819/0.9084 corrective phase and loss of near-term base at 0.8820 zone. Fresh bears tested psychological 0.8800 support, as resumption of larger downtrend from 1.1079, 2011 peak, looks for test of 0.8769, Aug 2010 low and 0.8576/43, Feb 2010 low / 50% retracement of multi-year 0.6007/1.1079 rally. With bears being fully in play, downtrend may be interrupted by corrective rallies on oversold near-term studies. Initial resistance lay between 0.8820 and 0.8860, previous lows, while only break above 0.89 barrier and Fibonacci 38.2% of 0.9084/0.8794 fall, would delay immediate bears for more significant corrective action.
Res: 0.8820; 0.8842; 0.8863; 0.8900
Sup: 0.8794; 0.8769; 0.8733; 0.8700
EURUSD
The Euro ended week at the back foot and closed near psychological 1.35 support, after losing 1.3580 platform and previous low at 1.3547, posted on 09 Jan. Bears remain firmly in play on near-term studies, with break below 1.35 handle expected to open 1.3479, Fibonacci 61.8% expansion of the third wave from 1.3698, ahead of double-Fibonacci support at 1.3430 zone, 76.4% expansion and 76.4% retracement of 1.3294/1.3892 upleg. Bears may be delayed by corrective rallies, as hourly RSI emerges out of oversold zone, while 4-hour studies are extended. Initial resistance lies at 1.3560, Fibonacci 38.2% of 1.3648/1.3506 downleg, ahead of more significant 1.3580, previous base and 50% retracement, reinforced by hourly 55DMA, and psychological / Fibonacci 61.8% resistance at 1.3600, where rallies should be capped.
Res: 1.3560; 1.3580; 1.3600; 1.3620
Sup: 1.3506; 1.3479; 1.3430; 1.3400
GBPUSD
Cable regained positive tone on last Friday’s strong rally off 1.6307 low that peaked at 1.6457, being capped by descending trendline from 1.6602 peak. Corrective pullback was so far contained at 1.64 zone, Fibonacci 38.2% of 1.6307/1.6457 upleg / hourly 55DMA, however, momentum-losing near-term technicals see risk of further easing, in case price fails to break trendline resistance at 1.6440 and previous peak at 1.6457. This would signal continuation of larger downtrend towards initial support at 1.6336, 06 Jan low and last week’s low at 1.6307. Conversely, lift above the first pivot at 1.6457, would open next strong barriers at 1.6500/15.
Res: 1.6440; 1.6457; 1.6500; 1.6515
Sup: 1.6393; 1.6364; 1.6336; 1.6307
USDJPY
The pair remains at the back foot and extends corrective phase off 14093 peak, with probe below 104 handle, testing 103.90, previous low and 50% retracement of 102.64/104.93. Negatively aligned hourly studies keep the downside at risk, especially if the price loses important 104.00/103.90 support, while slight positive tone exists on 4-hour studies. Holding above 103.90 would be a signal of further consolidation, as last Friday’s Doji shows indecision. On the upside, initial barrier lies at 104.47, while regain of more important 104.93/105 handle, is required to confirm bulls back in play for eventual attempt towards key 104.40/43 peaks. Otherwise, further weakness below 103.90, would face Fibonacci supports at 103.64 and 103.33, 61.8% and 76.4% of 102.84/104.93, with psychological 103.00 level seen in extension.
Res: 104.47; 104.93; 105.05; 105.34
Sup: 103.89; 103.64; 103.33; 103.00
AUDUSD
The pair remains in narrow range consolidative phase, after posting fresh low at 0.8755, with near-term tone being negatively aligned. Overall picture remains bearish and favors further downside, as acceleration through previous base at 0.8820 and psychological 0.8800 support signals resumption of larger downtrend towards next targets at 0.8576/43, Feb 2010 low / 50% retracement of multi-year 0.6007/1.1079 rally. Corrective rallies on oversold near-term studies, face initial barrier at 0.8820 zone, previous low / consolidation top / 4-hour 20DMA, ahead of 0.8881, Fibonacci 38.2% of 0.9084/0.8755 / 55DMA, break of which to sideline immediate downside risk and allow for stronger bounce.
Res: 0.8826; 0.8863; 0.8881; 0.8900
Sup: 0.8755; 0.8733; 0.8700; 0.8658
EURUSD
The Euro consolidates above fresh low at 1.3506, with the upside attempts being limited by hourly 55DMA /daily 100DMA / daily cloud base at 1.3566. Weak near-term studies do not see much of the upside prospect for now, as layers of strong resistances lay above, with the next ones at 1.3580, previous base and 38.2% retracement of 1.3698/1.3506 and 1.36 zone, 50% retracement / daily cloud top / 4-hour 55DMA, above which comes double-Fibonacci barrier at 1.3625 and lower top of 16 Jan at 1.3648. Only break here would neutralize near-term bears and turn near-term focus towards the upside. Otherwise, lower top, ideally around 1.36 handle, where broken bull-trendline off 1.2754 low reinforces barrier and fresh weakness, is seen as preferred near-term scenario. Break below 1.35 handle to resume weakness off 1.3892 top and expose 1.3435, Fibonacci 76.4% of 1.3294/1.3892 and psychological 1.3400 support.
Res: 1.3566; 1.3580; 1.3600; 1.3625
Sup: 1.3506; 1.3460; 1.3430; 1.3400
GBPUSD
Cable trades in near-term consolidative mode, with price action entrenched within 1.6457/1.6393. The pair is so far unable to clearly break above bear-trendline off 1.6602 peak, currently at 1.6430 and last Friday’s peak at 1.6457 that keeps the downside risk in play. However, near-term technicals remain positively aligned, with hourly studies lacking momentum for now. Sustained break above 1.6457 is required to resume rally off 1.6393 and confirm bottom at 1.6393 that would open next significant barrier at 1.6515, 10 Jan lower top, for retest. Otherwise, downside risk would increase in case of violation of initial support and higher base at 1.64 zone.
Res: 1.6457; 1.6500; 1.6515; 1.6577
Sup: 1.6422; 1.6409; 1.6393; 1.6364
USDJPY
The pair regained strength after finding ground at 103.90 support zone, as fresh rally approaches initial barrier at 104.93. Break here is required to complete 104.93/103.85 corrective phase and confirm higher low formation for fresh attempt towards key hurdles at 105.40 zone. Positive near-term technicals support the notion, with overbought hourly studies seeing possible hesitation on approach. Downside should be ideally protected at 104.40, hourly 20DMA / hourly Kijun-sen line, to keep freshly established bulls off 103.85 intact. Otherwise, lower top formation and return to initial 103.90 support zone, with increased downside risk, would be likely scenario.
Res: 104.78; 104.93; 105.05; 105.34
Sup: 104.56; 104.40; 104.13; 103.89
AUDUSD
The pair remains in narrow range consolidative phase, after posting fresh low at 0.8755, with near-term tone being negatively aligned. Overall picture remains bearish and favors further downside, as acceleration through previous base at 0.8820 and psychological 0.8800 support signals resumption of larger downtrend towards next targets at 0.8576/43, Feb 2010 low / 50% retracement of multi-year 0.6007/1.1079 rally. Corrective rallies on oversold near-term studies remain capped at range top t 0.8830 zone, previous low / consolidation top / 4-hour 20DMA that keep the upside attempts limited. Only extension above 0.8881, Fibonacci 38.2% of 0.9084/0.8755 and psychological 0.8900 barrier would provide near-term relief.
Res: 0.8836; 0.8863; 0.8881; 0.8900
Sup: 0.8775; 0.8755; 0.8733; 0.8700
EURUSD
The Euro remains in near-term consolidative mode above fresh low at 1.3506, with probe above initial 1.3560 barrier, being for now capped at the next hurdle at 1.3580. However, positive tone, established on hourly chart, sees potential for fresh upside attempts, with sustained break above 1.3580 and more significant 1.3600 barrier, 50% retracement of 1.3698/1.3506 / daily Kijun-sen line / broken bull-trendline off 1.2754, required to spark stronger recovery. On the other side, negative 4-hour / daily studies, see the upside actions limited, as failure at 1.36 would keep the sideways mode in play, with the downside remaining vulnerable. Break below 1.35 support will be seen as a trigger of fresh extension of near-term downtrend from 1.3892, 27 Dec peak.
Res: 1.3580; 1.3600; 1.3625; 1.3648
Sup: 1.3535; 1.3506; 1.3460; 1.3430
GBPUSD
Fresh bulls came in play as the price broke above near-term triangular consolidation and bear-trendline off 1.6602 peak, signaling attack at important 1.6515 barrier, 10 Jan lower top. Positive near-term studies support the advance, with corrective action on overbought hourly studies, expected to ideally find footstep at 1.6450/40 zone, previous consolidation tops / bull-trendline off 1.6307 / hourly 55DMA. Further easing below the latter, however, would delay immediate bulls for deeper pullback. Only loss of 1.64 higher platform would bring bears back in play.
Res: 1.6489; 1.6515; 1.6577; 1.6602
Sup: 1.6450; 1.6440; 1.6400; 1.6376
USDJPY
The pair enters range trading after upside rejection under 104.93 peak, with near-term price action established within 104.75 and 103.90 range. Holding above 104 handle, also near 50% retracement of 102.84/104.93 upleg, would keep the upside in play, as 4-hour studies hold positive tone. Regain of 104.93 and 105 hurdles is required to signal further upside and eventual attack at key 105.40 double-top. Otherwise, loss of higher platform at 103.90 would increase downside risk and formation of lower top at 104.75, as a part of near-term downtrend from 105.43, 02 Jan peak.
Res: 104.56; 104.75; 104.93; 105.05
Sup: 104.13; 103.89; 103.64; 103.30
AUDUSD
The pair regains ground after break above near-term consolidative range and initial barrier at 0.8830, regain the next resistance at 0.8881, Fibonacci 38.2% retracement of 0.9084/0.8755 descend. Further advance is seen favored, as 4-hour studies gained strong momentum, however, overbought hourly conditions see scope for consolidative/corrective action ahead of next barriers at 0.8900/20, round figure / daily 20DMA / 50% retracement. The downside should be ideally protected at 0.8830, previous resistance, to keep fresh bulls intact. Potential stronger recovery would look for 0.9000 and pivotal 0.9084, 13 Jan lower top / daily 55DMA.
Res: 0.8900; 0.8920; 0.8932; 0.8958
Sup: 0.8850; 0.8830; 0.8800; 0.8775
EURUSD
The Euro remains in near-term sideways mode under 1.37 barrier that so far offers solid resistance and keeps the upside capped. Hourly structure is neutral, while positive tone prevails on 4-hour chart, keeping the upside favored. With the downside being protected at lowered range floor at 1.3652, near 38.2% retracement of 1.3529/1.3738 and price action underpinned by hourly 55DMA / 4-hour 20DMA / daily cloud top, fresh attacks at 1.37 hurdle will remain in play. Otherwise, further easing below 1.3652 would delay bulls for deeper correction, with 1.36 zone, Fibonacci 61.8% retracement, required to hold. Break above 1.37 and spike high at 1.3615/38, to resume larger rally off 1.3506 and expose 1.38 resistance zone.
Res: 1.3687; 1.3700; 1.3715; 1.3738
Sup: 1.3665; 1.3652; 1.3634; 1.3600
GBPUSD
Cable regained positive tone on extension of bounce from 1.6472, yesterday’s fresh low, as regain of 1.66 handle brought hourly bulls back in play. With 4-hour structure being positive, near-term focus remains at fresh peak at 1.6668. Corrective action, however, is expected to precede fresh rally, with good support at 1.6565, higher platform and 38.2% of 1.6472/1.6623 upleg, reinforced by 55DMA and seen as ideal reversal point. Downside risk would increase in case of stronger reversal and violation of 1.6530, Fibonacci 61.8% retracement and 1.6515, previous high of 10 Jan.
Res: 1.6623; 1.6642; 1.6668; 1.6700
Sup: 1.6587; 1.6565; 1.6530; 1.6515
USDJPY
The pair holds in near-term corrective phase off fresh low at 101.75, following two-legged descend from 104.83, 23 Jan lower top. Overall negative tone, established after repeated rejections at 105 hurdle and acceleration lower, keep the downside favored in the near-term, with fresh leg lower seen on a completion of corrective rally. Crack of initial 102.70 resistance, opens more significant 103.00 barrier, Fibonacci 38.2% of 104.83/101.75 descend, reinforced by hourly 55DMA and pivotal 103.57, 24 Jan lower top / near 61.8% retracement, where rallies should be ideally capped. Otherwise, break here would sideline near-term bears and shift focus higher. Initial support lies at 102.50, daily cloud top, ahead of 102.15 higher low and 101.75 low, loss of which to confirm bearish resumption and expose immediate target at 101.60, 06 Dec low.
Res: 103.16; 103.29; 103.57; 104.00
Sup: 102.50; 102.18; 101.75; 101.60
AUDUSD
The pair regained ground following last week losses, as extension of corrective rally from fresh low at 0.8658, broke above previous base at 0.8755 and cracked psychological 0.8800 barrier, also Fibonacci 61.8% of 0.8886/0.8658 descend, reinforced by 4-hour 55DMA. Positive hourly conditions see potential for further upside, however, weak 4-hour structure, keeps the downside risk in play while barriers at 0.8800/30 stay intact. Clear break here to confirm recovery and open key near-term barrier and breakpoint at 0.8886, 22 Jan high. Alternatively, lower top formation under the latter and fresh leg lower, would be likely near-term scenario.
Res: 0.8832; 0.8886; 0.8921; 0.8950
Sup: 0.8750; 0.8700; 0.8676; 0.8658