Windsor Brokers - Short Term Technical Analysis for Majors (updated daily) - page 84
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EURUSD
The Euro Remains steady and continues to move above bull-trendline off 1.3482, after last week’s fall found ground on strong 1.3700/1.3690 support zone. Friday’s inside day candle suggests further upside, as fresh strength aims towards initial targets at 1.3756/61, 21/20 Feb highs, ahead of key near-term hurdle at 1.3772, 19 Feb high. Overnight’s consolidation above 1.37 handle and fresh extension higher, keeps near-term bulls in play, with technicals on lower timeframes maintaining positive tone. Break above 1.3772 to complete 1.3772/1.3685 corrective phase and open way towards 1.3800/30 and 1.3892, 27 Dec 2013 peak in extension, regain of which to complete larger corrective phase from 1.3892 to 1.3475. Initial support lies at 1.3727, ahead of 1.3700 and pivotal 1.3685 platform, loss of which would be bearish.
Res: 1.3756; 1.3761; 1.3772; 1.3800
Sup: 1.3727; 1.3700; 1.3685; 1.3661
GBPUSD
Cable remains in near-term descend off fresh peak at 1.6821, approaching important 1.66 support, Fibonacci 38.2% retracement of 1.6250/1.6821 upleg, reinforced by 4-hour 55SMA and daily Tenkan-sen line. Loss of 1.66 handle is required to confirm reversal and trigger stronger pullback, which will put near-term bulls on hold and open 1.6536, 50% retracement of 1.6250/1.6821 and psychological 1.6500 support in extension. Hourly studies are weak, while 4-hour indicators are breaking into negative territory that supports negative scenario. Alternatively, ability to hold above 1.66 handle would keep the pair protected from immediate risk of further easing, with consolidative phase seen preceding fresh attempt higher, as daily bulls remain in play and 1.66 handle seen as ideal reversal point. Regain of near-term breakpoints at 1.6723/40, is required to bring bulls back in play.
Res: 1.6654; 1.6700; 1.6723; 1.6740
Sup: 1.6610; 1.6600; 1.6536; 1.6500
USDJPY
Near-term bulls lost traction after brief break above key 102.69/73 barrier, as the price stalled at 102.82 and subsequent pullback pressures psychological / Fibonacci 50% / daily Tenkan-sen line support at 102.00. With hourly indicators sliding into negative territory, downside risk will remain in play in the near-term. Loss of 102 handle is required to confirm. On the other side, 4-hour studies hold positive tone that sees the upside in focus while the price holds above 102 support and 101.77, bull-trendline off 100.74. Larger picture, however, is neutral, as studies are mixed and price action entrenched within 101.37/102.82 range, with break of either side to define direction.
Res: 102.45; 102.67; 102.82; 103.09
Sup: 102.15; 102.00; 101.77; 101.37
AUDUSD
Near-term structure is negative, as the price’s recovery from 0.8935 failed to sustain gains above psychological 0.9000 barrier and subsequent easing fully reversed 0.8935/0.9021 rally. The downside is for now protected by daily cloud base, however, negatively aligned near-term studies would keep the downside at risk while the price remains capped under 0.9000, daily Tenkan-sen line and 0.9021, 20 Feb peak, break of which is required to bring fresh bulls in play and signal double-bottom formation. Otherwise, violation of strong 0.8930/00 support zone, would spark resumption of reversal from 0.9079, 18 Feb peak.
Res: 0.8986; 0.9000; 0.9021; 0.9043
Sup: 0.8935; 0.8926; 0.8900; 0.8870
EURUSD
The Euro remains unchanged, as near-term price action holds within 1.3700/70 range, trading in directionless mode. Consolidation is expected to precede fresh leg higher, as overall tone remains positive, as the price moves along with bull-trendline drawn off 1.3482 low. Formation of bullish pennant is shown on 4-hour chart, with break above recent congestion tops and trendline resistance, required to complete the pattern and open next targets at 1.3800/30. Trendline support lies at 1.3726, ahead of breakpoints at 1.3700/85, loss of which will be bearish.
Res: 1.3772; 1.3800; 1.3815; 1.3831
Sup: 1.3726; 1.3700; 1.3685; 1.3661
GBPUSD
Cable improved near-term structure on extension of recovery rally from fresh low at 1.6582, which cracked psychological 1.6700 barrier and peaked at 1.6725, where the pair ran out of steam. Stall ahead of 1.6740 breakpoint and subsequent pullback to 1.6660, where the price attempts to stabilize above hourly 55SMA, keeps the downside risk in play, as hourly studies are losing momentum. Slide below 1.660 and yesterday’s spike low at 1.6640, would bring important 1.66 support in near-term focus, with violation of the latter to signal fresh extension of pullback from 1.6821 peak. Conversely, attempt to build near-term base, requires bounce through 1.6700 barrier to avert immediate downside risk and open 1.6725/40 hurdles for test. Studies on 4-hour chart are in neutral mode, with break of either side, required to define near-term direction.
Res: 1.6700; 1.6725; 1.6740; 1.6800
Sup: 1.6660; 1.6640; 1.6600; 1.6582
USDJPY
Near-term price action is at the back foot, as reversal from 102.82, 21 Feb peak, extended and cracked psychological / trendline support at 102 zone. Hourly studies are improving, as bounce from fresh low at 101.99 reached mid-point of 102.82/101.99 descend at 102.40, however, regain of lower platform at 102.60 is required to confirm reversal and bottom formation. Otherwise, risk of renewed attempt lower and clear break below 102 handle would further weaken near-term structure and open lower boundaries of two-week range, also daily cloud base, for test.
Res: 102.40; 102.61; 102.82; 103.09
Sup: 102.24; 102.00; 101.57; 101.37
AUDUSD
The pair shows no significant changes, as near-term price action remains within 0.8935/0.9079 range, with the price holding at the upper part of the range, following yesterday’s dip to 0.8967 and quick recovery that attempts to stabilize above 0.9000 handle. Hourly technicals are still weak, with downside risk remaining in play. Loss of 0.9000 handle to shift near-term focus towards the lower limits, with 50% and 61.8% retracement levels of 0.8937/0.9048 rally at 0.8993 and 0.8979, seen as next supports, ahead of yesterday’s spike low at 0.8967, loss of which to re-open range floor at 0.8935. On the upside, pivotal resistance lies at 0.9048, clearance of which to expose recent peak and range top at 0.9079.
Res: 0.9024; 0.9048; 0.9079; 0.9100
Sup: 0.9000; 0.8979; 0.8967; 0.8935
EURUSD
The Euro lost ground on yesterday’s acceleration off daily high at 1.3750 zone and broke below strong 1.3700/1.3585 support zone. The fall was interrupted by correction from 1.3660, Fibonacci 38.2% retracement of 1.3482/1.3772 upleg / daily 55SMA, to 1.37 zone, now reverted to resistance. Negative tone established on lower timeframes keeps the downside at risk, as fresh weakness through 1.3660/50, previous low / daily Tenkan-sen line / 20SMA, opens 1.3620, daily 100SMA / near 50% of 1.3482/1.3770 and psychological 1.3600 support, also Fibonacci 61.8% retracement. On the upside, previous consolidation floor at 1.37 zone, reinforced by 4-hour 10/55SMA’s bear cross, offers solid resistance and is expected to cap. Only break and close above here would sideline immediate bears.
Res: 1.3700; 1.3720; 1.3755; 1.3772
Sup: 1.3620; 1.3600; 1.3561; 1.3550
GBPUSD
Cable remains in near-term sideways mode, with price action being established within 1.6620 and 1.6725 range. Lack of momentum to sustain gains above 1.67 barrier, triggered pullback to 1.6620, keeping strong 1.66 support intact for now. Neutral tone prevails on near-term studies and sees fresh direction on a break through either of range limits, while larger picture bulls remain in play and see the upside favored, once corrective phase off 1.6821 peak is completed. Ideally, 1.66 handle should keep the downside protected, otherwise broader bulls may be delayed in case the price clearly breaks below 1.66 support.
Res: 1.6700; 1.6725; 1.6740; 1.6800
Sup: 1.6656; 1.6619; 1.6600; 1.6582
USDJPY
Near-term price action enters neutral mode, with price moving within 102.00 and 102.60 range. Psychological 102 support is reinforced by bull-trendline, drawn off 100.79 low and Fibonacci 38.2% retracement of 100.79/102.82 upleg, with break here seen increasing downside risk. On the upside, immediate barriers lay at 102.60, ahead of near-term congestion tops at 102.70, reinforced by daily Kijun-sen line, above which to signal resumption of recovery rally from 100.74, 04 Feb low.
Res: 102.59; 102.82; 103.09; 103.43
Sup: 102.22; 102.00; 101.57; 101.37
AUDUSD
The pair came under pressure after the price broke below one–week range floor at 0.8930 zone and Fibonacci 38.2% retracement of 0.8658/0.9079 ascend, attempting at psychological 0.8900 support, also daily Ichimoku cloud base. Hourly studies are negative and reached oversold zone, while 4-hour indicators broke below their midlines that suggests further downside. Consolidation around 0.89 handle would likely precede fresh leg lower, which is going to test Fibonacci supports of 50% and 61.8% retracement at 0.8869 and 0.8819 respectively, with the latter also marking previous 28/30 Jan consolidation top. Lower tops at 0.8944 and 0.8967 offer initial resistances, while stronger recovery rallies should be ideally capped under psychological 0.9000 resistance, near 61.8% retracement of 0.9048/0.8902 descend.
Res: 0.8944; 0.8967; 0.9000; 0.9024
Sup: 0.8900; 0.8869; 0.8819; 0.8800
EUR/USD
Opening with a Gap lower, the EURUSD managed to maintain group above 1.3755 after closing above 1.3800. 1.3755 a 38.2% Fibo level of 1.3642 to 1.3824 High, a break there would open lower retracement towards the 50% level at 1.3725. From the upside 1.3825-35 mark the zone for continues acceleration towards 1.3890 27.Dec.13 high.
Res: 1.3825, 1.3835, 1.3890, 1.3960
Sup: 1.3755, 1.3725, 1.3690, 1.3645
GBP/USD
Still on a higher lows pattern for the past 3 trading sessions, cable managed to find resistance at 1.6770 last Friday and today at 1.6750. a break would open continuation towards 1.6820 (17 Feb High). On the other hand, volatility was seen last Friday and demand was found at 1.6685-95 ahead of the low at 1.6675, we will monitory 1.6685-95 zone for support, and if broken a reversal towards 1.6645 and 1.6615 is expected.
Res: 1.6750, 1.6770, 1.6795, 1.6820
Sup: 1.6695, 1.6685, 1.6645, 1.6615
USD/JPY
Since the 7th of February, USDJPY has been trading on a sideway mode between 102.75-90 from the top and 101.25-40 from the bottom, a break of 101.25 would open further drop towards 100.80 zone (Low of beginning of February) and afterwards a break below 100.50. On the upside above 101.80 would open Fridays high at 102.30
Res: 101.80, 102.30, 102.75, 102.90
Sup: 101.25, 100.80, 100.50, 100.00
AUDUSD
Lower High/Low pattern dominated the Aussie for the past few days, reaching recent low at 0.8890 and targeting 0.8870 (50% Fibo of 0.8660 to 0.9080). A break below there would open 0.8825 and a sharp drop lower towards 0.8750. On the upside, support is found first at 0.8945 Fridays peak at 15:30 GMT, and next towards 0.8970 and 0.8990. Above the latter would open a potential reversal towards 0.9050 zone.
Res: 0.8950, 0.8970, 0.8990, 0.9025
Sup: 0.8890, 0.8870, 0.8825, 0.8750
EUR/USD
The pair managed to continue its correction after last Fridays bounce only to 1.3720. Yesterday we have seen selling around 1.3780-90 zone, so we wait for this level to be broken to continue the uptrend towards 1.3820 followed by 1.3890. On the other hand, a break below 1.3720 would trigger further to the downside towards 1.3690 and 1.3640 next.
Res: 1.3780, 1.3790, 1.3825, 1.3890
Sup: 1.3725, 1.3690, 1.3645, 1.3605
GBP/USD
A corrective action was made reaching 1.6640 where support was found. Maintaining today’s low level will offer a test of 1.6750-70 peaks, and a break above that will offer a retest of previous peak of February at 1.6820. on the downside, a break of 1.6640 would open further to the downside towards 1.6615 and 1.6580 next.
Res: 1.6750, 1.6770, 1.6795, 1.6820
Sup: 1.6645, 1.6615, 1.6580, 1.6530
USD/JPY
Still on a sideway trend of 102.80-101.25, USDJPY have tested yesterday the bottom at 101.20 before reversing back below 102.00 zone. As it seems that the bottom is weakening, today we will monitor 102.00 and 102.30 and if maintained we will see a retest of 101.25 and a break there would open more to the downside towards 100.80.
On the other hand a break above 102.00-30 would open previous tops of 102.75-90
Res: 102.00, 102.30, 102.75, 102.90
Sup: 101.55, 101.25, 100.80, 100.50
AUDUSD
Aussie correct through yesterday finding support around 0.8905 and reaching up to 0.8967 ahead of 0.8970-90 peaks, a break there would open more to the upside towards 0.9050. However, if 0.8970-90 was maintained a drop again towards 0.8905 is seen, where a break below there would open 0.8870
Res: 0.8970, 0.8990, 0.9025, 0.9050
Sup: 0.8905, 0.8870, 0.8825, 0.8750
EUR/USD
Yesterday’s sideway action was maintained by 1.3720-1.3780 zone. Where today we wait for a test of 1.3720 and if broken a continuation lower is seen towards to 1.3690 and then 1.3640-70 zone. On the upside, waiting for a bounce above 1.3745 for a test of 1.3780-90 and if broken, again we will see another test of 1.3825.
Res: 1.3745, 1.3780, 1.3790, 1.3825
Sup: 1.3725, 1.3690, 1.3670, 1.3640
GBP/USD
So far 1.6640 zone was maintained with few tests a little bit higher at 1.6650s zone.
A break below this level would open 27th Feb low at 1.6615 low and then 24th Feb low at 1.6580. on the other hand, if 1.6640 was maintained again we will see a jump higher towards 1.6710 zone and maybe higher towards 1.6750-70
Res: 1.6710, 1.6750, 1.6770, 1.6795
Sup: 1.6645, 1.6615, 1.6580, 1.6530
USD/JPY
After the rise that was made the past couple of days from the bottom of 101.20, the pair is still rising higher probably towards the higher border of the sideways trend at 102.80-90 zone. A break there would open more to the upside towards 103.50. on the other hand any pullback should be maintained at 101.85-95 zone, and a break below there would open again the bottoms of 101.20
Res: 102.00, 102.30, 102.75, 102.90
Sup: 101.55, 101.25, 100.80, 100.50
AUDUSD
The pair tested the peak of 28th Feb at 0.8990 reaching 0.8997 before reversing lower towards 0.8935. seeing a higher high/low patter for the past couple of days we will wait for a retest and break of 0.8990 zone where a continuation is seen at 0.9025 and 0.9050
Only a break below 0.8930-35 would open 0.8870-90 zone.
Res: 0.8990, 0.9025, 0.9050, 0.9080
Sup: 0.8930, 0.8890, 0.8870, 0.8825
EURUSD
EURUSD managed to reach a two and a half year high on Friday by making a new uptrend high at 1.3914. It has risen above 1.39 for the first time since October 28 2011. There were strong gains on Thursday after the European Central Bank President held rates steady and suggested the central bank wasn’t going to ease policy further in the short term.
From a technical outlook the pair will remain bullish if trading is maintained above 1.38 with targets at 1.3940 and 1.3970
Res: 1.3940, 1.3970, 14015
Sup: 1.3800, 1.3750, 1.3720
GBPUSD
Overall still stuck in range trading mode since hitting a high of 1.6820 on the 17th of Feb. We had two failed attempts during last Thursday and Friday to break above 1.6780 resistances, however the most likely outlook still remains upwards if it manages to stay supported by 1.6700
Momentum Indicator RSI(14) is moving sideways indicating the lack of trend strength.
Res: 1.6785, 1.6820, 1.6900
Sup: 1.6700, 1.6670, 1.6640
USDJPY
USDJPY is currently in an uptrend on the H1 Chart. It achieved a trend high at 103.75 on Friday and since then retraced almost 80 pips to 103. We expect it to revisit the 103.75 and attempt at achieving a higher high if it stays supported at 102.80(today’s pivot point).
Res: 103.75, 104, 104.35
Sup: 102.80, 102.25, 101.70
GOLD
Gold is currently testing a critical level today’s pivot at 1330. If it manages to break this support we will reverse our bullish outlook and look for target 1322 and 1308. The 25 dollar drop during today’s and Fridays sessions comes after it failed for the 4th time to break important resistance 1354 (which is also the current uptrend high).
Res: 1354, 1362, 1375
Sup: 1330, 1322, 1308
EURUSD
No important levels were broken during the previous session as the euro spent it trading within a narrow 40 pip range. This low volatility is reflected in the momentum indicators as we see MACD near the zero level and Momentum (22) at the 100 level. This may continue to be the case until the release of JOLTS Job Openings figure from the US at 14:00 GMT
Res: 1.3940, 1.3970, 14015
Sup: 1.3800, 1.3750, 1.3720
GBPUSD
A huge drop of 120 pips for the sterling caused it to break all three previously mentioned supports at 1.6700, 1.6670 & 1.6640. Current low stands at 1.6620 which is also the low we saw on the 27th of Feb which makes it an important support level to pass if current downward momentum is to be maintained
We are expecting UK data at 9:30 GMT Manufacturing Production m/m & Inflation Report Hearings
Res: 1.6685, 1.6730, 1.6785
Sup: 1.6620, 1.6580, 1.6540
USDJPY
Lack of action for the USDJPY as it spent the previous session trading within a 40 pip range failing to break any support or resistance level thus there will be no change from our previous outlook. Resistance remains at the current H1 uptrend high of 103.75 which was reached on the 7th of March.
Res: 103.75, 104, 104.35
Sup: 102.80, 102.25, 101.70
GOLD
After testing critical level 1330 for the second time(first attempt was last Friday), Gold failed to break it finding support and rising to yesterday’s high of 1344 which is 10 dollars short of our next resistance 1354, indicating weak buying momentum which could be due to lack of important economic figures during the previous session.
Res: 1354, 1362, 1375
Sup: 1330, 1322, 1308
EURUSD
Lack of action again for the euro as we see another day of trading within a narrow 40 pip range. Previous Resistance and support levels still hold as they were not even tested during the last two sessions. We can currently safely say that EURUSD ended its upward trend on the 1 hour chart and now is stuck in a range between 1.3940 and 1.3800.
Res: 1.3940, 1.3970, 1.4015
Sup: 1.3800, 1.3750, 1.3720
GBPUSD
Sterling manages to continue the current downtrend on the 1 hour chart by breaking another support level at 1.6620. It achieved a new low at 1.6595. We have downward signals from the momentum indicators MACD and Momentum (22) plus prices are currently below exponential moving average 55 and the Ichimoku Cloud
Res: 1.6650, 1.6685, 1.6730,
Sup: 1.6580, 1.6540, 1.6580
USDJPY
We saw an almost 60 pip drop for the USDJPY during the previous and current session however it failed twice to break current support of 102.80. It currently trading close to that level and testing it for the third time. If it does manage to break it this will open the way for 102.25 & 101.70. However a rise above 103.75 will reverse our outlook
Res: 103.75, 104, 104.35
Sup: 102.80, 102.25, 101.70
GOLD
Strong upward action from Gold as we saw it break important resistance level 1354 and continue its rise to test 1362. This was the third attempt at breaking 1354, the previous two failed attempts happened on 6th and 3rd of this month. Because of this we will safely say that gold broke out of its range trading mode and we have an upward trend now on the 1 hour chart
Res: 1362, 1375, 1388
Sup: 1337, 1330, 1322,
EURUSD
After 3 trading sessions of narrow trading we finally see EURUSD attempt to make a move. Its currently testing 1.3940 resistance after it successfully broke above previous trend high 1.3915. It’s trading at prices not seen since October 2011. If it does manage to break this resistance it will open the way for 1.3970 and 1.4015. On the H1 we have an uptrend
Res: 1.3940, 1.3970, 1.4015
Sup: 1.3850 1.3800, 1.3750
GBPUSD
Today’s rise of almost 70 pips can be considered a reversal of the downtrend on the 1 hour chart for two reasons. First we see the formation of an upside-down head and shoulders pattern and a rise above the 55 exponential moving average. After failing to continue to the previous downtrend, it found support at 1.6580 went up and broke 1.6650 plus tested 1.6685
Res: 1.6685, 1.6730, 1.6780
Sup: 1.6620 1.6580, 1.6540,
USDJPY
After two past failed attempts at breaking 102.80, USDJPY finally was successful in the third try achieving a new low at 102.50 for the current downtrend on the 1 hour chart. It is currently trading close to that low attempting to break it for the second time. Next target is at 102.25
Res: 103.15. 103.75, 104,
Sup: 102.25, 101.70, 101.20
GOLD
Gold remains strong breaking another resistance level 1362 continuing its uptrend on all time frames. It also tested 1375 resistance. However it’s important to note that on the 4 hour and daily chart RSI(14) is currently above the 70 level which could indicate prices are too high due to overbought conditions. Important thing to note also on the daily chart is that we saw a daily candle close above 1362 which was the high of 28.10.2013.
Res: 1375, 1388, 1400
Sup: 1355, 1345, 1337