Windsor Brokers - Short Term Technical Analysis for Majors (updated daily) - page 79
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EURUSD
The Euro trades in widened consolidative range, with downside being for now protected by hourly 55DMA / 4-hour 20DMA at 1.3650, also Fibonacci 23.6% of 1.3472/1.3702 ascend and previous high of 03/10. Hourly studies are neutral to negative, with further sideways mode seen while 1.3650 holds. On the other side, 4-hour indicators are descending from overextended territory that keeps the downside vulnerable of further corrective easing. Below 1.3650 handle, Fibonacci 38.2% at 1.3614, will come next, along with 1.3600, high of 14/10 and 4-hour 55DMA, levels seen as ideal reversal point, ahead of fresh attack at short-term target at 1.3710, with 1.3800, Fibonacci 100% expansion of the wave from 1.3103, seen as next target. Any break below 1.3600 would delay bulls for further consolidation, with pivotal near-term support lying at 1.3470 zone.
Res: 1.3687; 1.3702; 1.3710; 1.3750
Sup: 1.3650; 1.3614; 1.3600; 1.3587
GBPUSD
Cable moves lower after losing initial support at 1.6140, with hourly studies turning negative, as the price heads towards psychological 1.6100 support, also Fibonacci 38.2% of 1.5892/1.6223 rally. Indicators on 4-hour chart slide from overbought territory and support the idea of further corrective easing that would be triggered on a break below 1.6100 handle. Next significant level stands at 1.6075, 50% retracement and 4-hour 55DMA, below which, risk of lower top at 1.6223 would increase, with break below near-term base and pivotal point at 1.5900 zone, required to activate negative scenario and allow for stronger pullback. Reversal above 1.6000, psychological and trendline support, would keep larger bulls intact for renewed attempt towards 1.6223 and key 1.6259 resistance.
Res: 1.6138; 1.6177; 1.6200; 1.6223
Sup: 1.6114; 1.6100; 1.6058; 1.6018
USDJPY
The pair remains supported and heads higher, as break above initial 98.14 barrier extended recovery rally from 97.54 low. Positively aligned hourly structure supports further upside with break above 98.50 barrier, near 61.8% of 98.99/97.54 downleg, required to confirm bullish resumption and focus key near-term hurdle at 98.99, 17/10 peak. On the other side, weak 4-hour studies would keep the downside risk in play, while below 98.50, with loss of initial 98.00 support, seen as spark for further weakness towards 97.54, 18/10 low. Loss of the latter to bring bears fully in play and confirm lower top formation.
Res: 98.44; 98.65; 98.99; 99.65
Sup: 98.14; 98.00; 97.73; 97.54
AUDUSD
The pair remains supported as upside acceleration through psychological 0.9600 barrier, cleared near-term target at 0.9664, 14/06 peak and Fibonacci 61.8% expansion of the third wave from 0.9280 higher low. Psychological 0.9700 barrier and 0.9714, 50% retracement of larger 1.0581/0.8846 descends, come in near-term focus, however, rally is likely to be preceded by current consolidative action, with 0.9600 support expected to hold. Extension of the third wave from 0.9280 higher low, could travel to 0.9905/18, Fibonacci 100% expansion and 61.8% retracement of 1.0581/0.8846, once 0.9700/14 barriers are cleared. Near-term studies are positive, however, 4-hour indicators moving from overbought territory, favor further consolidation. Only break below 0.9600 handle would delay and open next significant support at 0.9526, previous peak and 38.2% retracement of 0.9280/0.9678 rally.
Res: 0.9678; 0.9700; 0.9714; 0.9770
Sup: 0.9641; 0.9600; 0.9546; 0.9526
EURUSD
The Euro got unleashed again, after weaker than expected US jobs data pushed the dollar significantly lower. The single currency completed multi-year 1.3710/1.2042 bear-phase on a break above 1.3710, 2013 annual peak. Fresh extension higher reached levels close to psychological 1.3800 barrier, with next target lying at 1.3832, Fibonacci 38.2% retracement of 1.4938/1.2042 descend. Overbought near-term technicals suggest hesitation ahead of 1.38 barrier, with corrective easing to face initial supports at 1.3710/00, ahead of 1.3670, 38.2% retracement of 1.3472/1.3792 rally and higher base at 1.3650, where dips should be ideally contained.
Res: 1.3792; 1.3832; 1.3850; 1.3900
Sup: 1.3710; 1.3670; 1.3650; 1.3630
GBPUSD
Cable enters near-term corrective mode, following yesterday’s fresh rally above 1.6223 barrier that stalled on approach to key resistance at 1.6259. Weakening hourly studies bring immediate threat towards strong 1.6114 support and higher low that also marks 38.2% retracement of 1.5892/1.6254 upleg. Potential break here would sideline immediate bulls and push the price towards mid-points of near-term 1.5892/1.6259 range. Alternatively, fresh attempt at 1.6259 and break above 1.6259, towards short-term targets at 1.6300/80, would be likely scenario, as 4-hour studies remain bullish. However, caution is required, as daily technicals are losing momentum.
Res: 1.6200; 1.6223; 1.6254; 1.6259
Sup: 1.6114; 1.6100; 1.6073; 1.6030
USDJPY
The pair came under increased pressure recovery rally from 97.54 stalled at 98.44 and subsequent weakness erased gains on break below 97.54 handle. Immediate targets at 97.13, 76.4% of 96.55/98.99 and psychological 97.00 support, come under pressure, as the lower top was formed at 98.44. Extension of near-term downtrend from 98.99, would look for full retracement of 96.55/98.44, once 97.00 is cleared. Negative near-term studies support the notion, however, bears may be delayed, as hourly studies are oversold, with corrective bounce expected to hold below 98.00, 20/55DMA’s bearish crossover. Only break above 98.44 would improve near-term structure and avert immediate downside risk.
Res: 97.54; 97.85; 98.00; 98.20
Sup: 97.25; 97.13; 97.00; 96.55
AUDUSD
The pair remains supported as fresh extension higher posted new high at 0.9755, earlier today. Break above 0.9714, 50% retracement of larger 1.0581/0.8846 descend, with positive overall picture, keeps the upside favored, with current corrective pullback expected to precede fresh attempt higher. Initial supports lay at 0.9630/00, session low / round figure support, the latter being underpinned by rising 55DMA. Any deeper dips, however, should not exceed 0.9500 support, also 50% of 0.9280/0.9755 rally. Upside extension above 0.9755, would look for 0.9770/90; 04/03 / 06 peaks.
Res: 0.9678; 0.9700; 0.9755; 0.9770
Sup: 0.9630; 0.9600; 0.9574; 0.9526
EURUSD
The Euro resumes bulls and cracks psychological 1.38 barrier, after near-term consolidation under the latter was completed. Extension of the third wave that commenced from 1.3103, 06/09 higher low that broke above its 100% Fibonacci expansion at 1.3797, focuses the next target at 1.3832, Fibonacci 38.2% retracement of larger 1.4938/1.2744 bear-phase, above which, psychological 1.4000 barrier would come in near-term focus. Near-term studies are positive and support further upside, with overbought 4-hour conditions suggesting a pause in current rally. Consolidation range floor at 1.3740 offers initial support, ahead of 1.3710/00, previous peak / round figure support.
Res: 1.3832; 1.3857; 1.3900; 1.3935
Sup: 1.3773; 1.3740; 1.3710; 1.3650
GBPUSD
Cable heads higher after quick pullback from 1.6254, yesterday’s upside rejection, found support at 1.6115, previous low of 22/10 and Fibonacci 38.2% retracement of 1.5892/1.6254 upleg. Hourly studies are gaining traction, with caution required on 4-hour RSI / MACD bearish divergence, as failure to clear important 1.6254/59 barriers, would trigger further consolidation. However, while 1.6115/00 support zone holds, near-term focus will remain at the upper boundary of congestion, otherwise more negative tone would be seen on a break below 1.6100 that would increase risk of attempts through psychological 1.6000 support and re-visit of key near-term support and higher platform at 1.5900 zone.
Res: 1.6223; 1.6254; 1.6259; 1.6300
Sup: 1.6160; 1.6115; 1.6100; 1.6073
USDJPY
The pair came remains under pressure, as near-term technicals maintain negative tone, with price action being entrenched within narrow consolidative range above fresh low at 97.13, also Fibonacci 76.4% retracement of 95.55/98.99. Extension of near-term downtrend from 98.99 and full retracement of 96.55/98.99 upleg, is seen as preferred scenario, with loss of 97.00 handle, required to confirm. Further consolidation, howvere, cannot be ruled out, with psychological / 20/55DMA’s bullish crossover barrier, expected to cap. Only break above 98.47, 22/10 lower top, would revive bears and turnd focus higher.
Res: 97.85; 98.00; 98.18; 98.47
Sup: 97.13; 97.00; 96.55; 96.00
AUDUSD
Near-term risk of further easing from fresh high at 0.9755 increases, as near-term studies are losing traction and rally was capped by 200DMA, despite sharp pullback from 0.9755 finding ground at 0.9600 zone, also 55DMA, where basing attempt is evident. Positively aligned hourly studies are lacking strength for push through 0.9680/0.9700 barriers and Fibonacci 50% / 61.8% retracement of 0.9755/0.9606, break of which is required to re-focus 0.9755. Otherwise, risk of further correction of larger 0.9280/0.9577 rally, would persist, as loss of 0.9600 handle is expected to confirm and open next targets at 0.9574, 38.2% and 0.9526/18, previous peak / 50% retracement of the entire rally, along with psychological 0.9500 support that should contain any extension lower. Overextended daily technicals also suggest that caution is required.
Res: 0.9678; 0.9700; 0.9755; 0.9770
Sup: 0.9643; 0.9600; 0.9574; 0.9526
EURUSD
The Euro stabilizes around 1.38 handle, where the price closed for the week, after posting fresh high at 1.3831, Fibonacci resistance. Overall tone remains positive, however, descending indicators on 4-hour chart suggest further consolidation that was signaled by Friday’s Doji. Also overbought daily studies see risk of a pause in near-term rally. Initial support lies at 1.377, consolidation floor /Fibonacci 38.2% of 1.3664/1.3831 upleg, ahead of strong 1.37 zone, previous highs / 38.2% retracement and 1.3650 higher low / 50%, where stronger dips should find a footstep. On the upside, break above 1.3831 to focus 1.3900 initially.
Res: 1.3817; 1.3837; 1.3857; 1.3900
Sup: 1.3770; 1.3750; 1.3700; 1.3650
GBPUSD
Cable trades in prolonged consolidative phase, with price action being established within 1.6254/1.6114 range, following repeated failure at key 1.6254/59 barrier. Hourly technicals are weak, while 4-hour chart indicators are losing traction, as the price moves within hourly triangular consolidation. Increased downside risk would be seen on a break below 1.6114/00 support zone, as this would also signal double-top formation on 4-hour chart and keep the upside targets on hold. Conversely, sustained break above 1.6200 handle, would shift near-term focus towards key barriers and breakpoints at 1.6254/59, above which to signal resumption of larger uptrend and focus short-term targets at 1.6300/80.
Res: 1.6221; 1.6245; 1.6254; 1.6259
Sup: 1.6168; 1.6148; 1.6114; 1.6100
USDJPY
The pair regains strength and averts immediate downside risk, as bounce off 97.00 support zone that was cracked last Friday, retraces over 50% of 98.47/96.93 downleg, on a weekly gap-higher opening. Hourly studies turned positive, however, weak tone prevails on 4-hour chart, as the price remains in near-term downtrend from 98.99 and current rally being capped by 55DMA at 97.74. Regain of 98.00 and more significant 98.47 lower top, is required to shift focus higher, otherwise, fresh lower top and extension of larger downtrend, would be likely near-term scenario. Initial support lies at 97.43, session low / 20/55DMA’s bullish crossover, while, extension below 96.93 handle would open way for full retracement of 96.55/98.99 ascend.
Res: 97.74; 98.00; 98.18; 98.47
Sup: 97.43; 96.93; 96.55; 96.00
AUDUSD
Near-term price action remains under pressure, as extension from 0.9670, where the lower top was left, broke below initial 0.9600 support. Fresh extension lower retraced 38.2% of 0.9280/0.9755 rally on a dip to 0.9571 so far, with near-term indicators sliding into negative territory. Initial targets lay at 0.9526/18, previous peak / 50% retracement, along with psychological 0.9500 support, reinforced by daily 55DMA. Break here to neutralize near-term bulls and spark stronger correction of larger 0.9280/0.9755 rally, as the upside remains capped by descending 200DMA. Corrective attempts face initial resistance at 0.9622, with 0.9670 expected to cap.
Res: 0.9622; 0.9670; 0.9700; 0.9755
Sup: 0.9571; 0.9526; 0.9500; 0.9461
EURUSD
The Euro trades in extended consolidative phase, off fresh high at 1.3831, with price holding for now within 1.3760/1.3831 range. Negatively aligned hourly studies keep the downside risk in play while the price stays below 1.38 barrier, as 4-hour indicators are heading south and support the notion. Break below initial support at 1.3760 and more significant 1.3740 higher low / 50% retracement of 1.3649/1.3831 upleg, to spark stronger pullback and expose next layer of supports at 1.3700 zone. Overall bullish structure, however, keeps the upside favored, with 1.3900 target seen on extension through 1.3831.
Res: 1.3800; 1.3817; 1.3831; 1.3857
Sup: 1.3760; 1.3740; 1.3700; 1.3650
GBPUSD
Cable lost traction, as the upside remains capped at 1.62 barrier and fresh weakness through 1.6114, near-term range floor and psychological 1.61 handle, weaken the structure. The price reached the mid-point of larger 1.5892/1.6254 range, with negatively aligned technicals, seeing risk of extension towards the range floor and higher base at 1.59 zone. Loss of psychological 1.6000 support is required to confirm. On the larger picture, one-month range-trading remains in play, however, break below the main bull trendline and south-heading daily indicators, increase the downside risk. Break of either side of the range is required to define fresh direction.
Res: 1.6123; 1.6163; 1.6207; 1.6245
Sup: 1.6063; 1.6030; 1.6000; 1.5977
USDJPY
Overall bears off 98.99 peak remains in play, as recovery attempt off fresh low at 96.93 were for now capped by 55DMA / bear-trendline at 97.75. Weak near-term studies keep the downside at risk, as long as the price holds below the trendline, with lower top formation seen as likely near-term scenario. Return to 97.00 support zone, the last obstacle en-route to 96.55 target, is required to confirm bearish resumption. Otherwise, prolonged corrective action would be seen on a lift above 97.75. However, only regain of 98.47 lower top, would bring bulls fully in play and shift near-term focus higher.
Res: 97.75; 98.00; 98.18; 98.47
Sup: 97.43; 97.16; 96.93; 96.55
AUDUSD
The pair remains under pressure, as fresh extension from 0.9621 lower top approached psychological 0.9500 support. With over 50% of 0.9280/0.9755 rally being retraced so far, risk of further retracement increases, with break below 0.9500 handle seen as a trigger. Oversold near-term conditions, however, see consolidative phase preceding fresh weakness that would look for 0.9460, 61.8% and higher platform at 0.94 zone, once price loses 0.95 handle. On the upside, initial resistance lies at 0.9570 lower platform, with regain of 0.96 barrier, expected to face strong resistance at 0.9621/28, lower top / 50% retracement of 0.9755/0.9502 downleg, where stronger rallies should be capped.
Res: 0.9554; 0.9571; 0.9600; 0.9628
Sup: 0.9500; 0.9461; 0.9400; 0.9388
EURUSD
The Euro trades in a near-term consolidative phase, after last week’s sharp fall, the biggest weekly loss in over one year. The pullback from 1.3831 peak was for now contained at very strong daily support at 1.3450/20 zone, previous peaks of 19/06 and 20/08 / daily cloud top and Fibonacci 38.2% of larger 1.2754/1.3831 ascend. Narrow range consolidation around 1.35 handle is capped by hourly 55DMA, with negative near-term technicals, keeping the downside at risk. Overextended 4-hour chart conditions suggest stronger bounce, however, the pair so far lacks strength for any more significant bounce. Above 1.35 barrier, initial resistances lay at 1.3590, 38.2% retracement of 1.3831/1.3441 downleg and 1.3640, 50% retracement / 55DMA. On the downside, penetration through 1.3450/20 breakpoint, to trigger fresh extension of bear-phase from 1.3831 and open 1.33 zone, 50% retracement of 1.2754/1.3831.
Res: 1.3523; 1.3565; 1.3590; 1.3640
Sup: 1.3461; 1.3441; 1.3420; 1.3400
GBPUSD
Cable trades in extended consolidative phase, after testing critical 1.5900 support, with price action being capped under initial barrier, also pivotal point at 1.6000. Near-term structure remain weak that favors further downside, as loss of 1.59 base is to confirm double-top pattern formation and trigger stronger reversal of 1.4812/1.6259 bull-phase. Further consolidation, however, cannot be ruled out, with break above 1.6000 handle required to ease immediate bear-pressure. Only regain of 1.6075 lower tops and 50% retracement of 1.6254/1.5901, would sideline bears and signal stronger recovery.
Res: 1.5984; 1.6000; 1.6040; 1.6075
Sup: 1.5901; 1.5892; 1.5850; 1.5800
USDJPY
The pair extends corrective phase off fresh high at 98.84, where recovery rally stalled, short of key barrier at 98.99. Near-term studies lost traction that increases risk of further easing. Loss of initial support, bull-trendline at 98.22 and more significant 98.00 handle, near 50% of entire 96.93/98.00 ascend, would sideline bulls and open way for towards 97.80, 01/11 higher low and 97.66, 61.8% retracement. Otherwise, holding above 98.00, would keep bulls in play for renewed attempt higher. Break above 98.84 to open 98.99, 17/10 peak and shift focus towards 99.65, 20/09 high and psychological 100 barrier in extension.
Res: 98.52; 98.84; 98.99; 99.12
Sup: 98.20; 98.05; 97.80; 97.66
AUDUSD
The pair remains under pressure, with near-term corrective rally from fresh low at 0.9420, being capped by 55DMA at 0.9520. As the studies on lower timeframes remain weak, further sideways movements would be likely near-term scenario, with break below 0.9420, also 38.2% retracement of 0.8891/0.9755 upleg, required to resume bears off 0.9755. Weakening daily studies support the notion. Only break above congestion top at 0.9520 would delay bears for stronger corrective action towards Fibonacci 38.2% and 50% retracement of 0.9755/0.9420 downleg at 0.9548 and 0.9587 respectively.
Res: 0.9524; 0.9548; 0.9587; 0.9621
Sup: 0.9462; 0.9420; 0.9400; 0.9388
EURUSD
The Euro showed no changes compared to the previous sessions, as the price remains entrenched within 1.3440/1.3520 consolidative range. Slight improvement of hourly studies pushed the price to the upper range part, however, overall negative tone keeps pivotal support at 1.3440/20 zone at risk, with break lower to spark fresh bear-leg and expose next targets at 1.3370, daily 90DMA and at 1.3300 zone, 50% retracement of 1.2754/1.3831 rally. Corrective rallies above 1.35 barrier should ideally stay capped under 1.3600/40, to keep bears in play.
Res: 1.3523; 1.3565; 1.3590; 1.3640
Sup: 1.3467; 1.3441; 1.3420; 1.3400
GBPUSD
Cable regained strength and accelerated recovery rally from 1.59 base and critical support, reinforced by daily cloud top, to retrace over 50% of 1.6254/1.5901 descend on a bounce to 1.6094 so far. Approaching important 1.6100/20 resistance zone, keeps focus at the upside, as positive near-term studies support further advance. However, larger picture range trading remains in play, with break of either side required to define fresh direction. Daily studies are losing traction that keeps the lower boundary of the range vulnerable for now.
Res: 1.6094; 1.6116; 1.6148; 1.6171
Sup: 1.6061; 1.6020; 1.6000; 1.5980
USDJPY
The pair extended near-term corrective rally off 98.15 and averts immediate downside risk, seen on violation of 98.00 support. Near-term technicals are positive, as the price approaches initial 98.84 barrier and key resistance at 98.99, regain of which to complete 98.99/96.93 corrective phase and open way for further upside. Higher low and bull trendline at 98.40, offer initial support and should ideally contain dips, while 98.15/00 zone is seen as a breakpoint and break low would revive bears.
Res: 98.74; 98.84; 98.99; 99.12
Sup: 98.40; 98.15; 98.05; 97.80
AUDUSD
The pair remains under pressure, with near-term corrective rally from fresh low at 0.9420, being limited, as brief breaks above 55DMA at 0.9520, failed to sustain gains for now, as daily 20DMA limited rallies at 0.9535. Slightly improved near-term studies are still lacking momentum for stronger recovery that would keep sideways trade in play, as long as range top at 0.9535 and Fibonacci 38.2% of 0.9755/0.9420 descend cap. Weakening daily technicals keep the downside at risk and as long as price holds below 0.9600 handle, regain of which would shift focus higher, retest of initial 0.9420 support and fresh weakness, seen on violation of 0.9420/00 support, would be likely near-term scenario.
Res: 0.9535; 0.9548; 0.9587; 0.9621
Sup: 0.9480; 0.9462; 0.9420; 0.9400
GOLD
Spot Gold remains under pressure, as fresh low and 50% retracement of 1251/1361 corrective rally at 1306 has been retested. The price trades in a consolidative mode, with near-term studies maintaining negative tone and keeping the downside at risk. Break below 1306/00 supports to open 1293 and 1277, Fibonacci 61.8% and 76.4% supports. Consolidation top at 1322, along with previous support, now resistance at 1327, is expected to keep the upside limited for now.
Res: 1315; 1322; 1327; 1335
Sup: 1305; 1300; 1293; 1277
EURUSD
The Euro steadies above 1.35 handle, ahead of ECB today, with no significant rallies seen so far, after the pair posted marginally fresh high at 1.3546 yesterday. Hourly studies are positively aligned, along with north-heading 4-hour indicators that suggests further recovery, with 1.36 zone, Fibonacci 38.2% of 1.3831/1.3441 downleg / 55DMA, being in near-term focus. Overall picture, however, remains bearish and current break in strong fall from last week could be seen as corrective phase, ahead of fresh weakness. Rallies should be ideally limited at 1.3640/80, Fibonacci 50% / 61.8% respectively, before bears re-assert. Break below pivotal 1.3440/20 support, Fibonacci 38.2% of larger 1.2754/1.3831 rally and main bull-trendline, drawn off 1.2754, where bears found temporary footstep, is expected to trigger fresh leg lower and expose 1.33 zone, also 50% retracement of 1.2754/1.3831.
Res: 1.3546; 1.3590; 1.3640; 1.3682
Sup: 1.3500; 1.3467; 1.3441; 1.3420
GBPUSD
Cable consolidates recent gains from 1.59 base that cracked strong 1.6100/15 resistance and retraced nearly 61.85 of 1.6254/1.5901 descend. The price found footstep at initial 1.6060 support, however, weakening hourly studies, see risk of deeper pullback, before bulls take control, as 4-hour structure remains bullish. Ideal reversal point is seen at 1.6030 higher platform / Fibonacci 38.2% of 1.5901/1.6116 ascend, while any extension lower and potential break below psychological / 50% retracement 1.6000 support, would bring bears fully in play. On the upside, sustained break above 1.61 barrier, is required to keep positive tone and shift near-term focus towards the upper levels of one-month 1.5900/1.6259 range.
Res: 1.6094; 1.6116; 1.6148; 1.6171
Sup: 1.6061; 1.6034; 1.6000; 1.5983
USDJPY
The pair trades in near-term consolidative mode, off fresh high at 98.84, with the downside protected at 98.50 for now. Holding above bull-trendline from 96.93, keeps bulls in play for eventual retest of key 99.00 barrier, break of which to open 99.65 and psychological 100 resistance. Studies on lower timeframes remain positive and favor further upside, as daily indicators head north after emerging from negative territory and support the notion. Key supports lay at 98.15/00 and only break lower would sideline bulls.
Res: 98.74; 98.84; 98.99; 99.12
Sup: 98.54; 98.40; 98.15; 98.05
AUDUSD
The pair remains under pressure, with near-term corrective rally from fresh low at 0.9420, being capped at 0.9541. Fresh weakness to 0.9460, previous low and 61.8% of 0.9420/0.9541, weakens hourly structure, however, holding above here, would keep positive tone on 4-hour studies, for possible renewed attempt higher. Clearance of 0.9541 barrier and 55DMA, is required to confirm higher low formation and avert downside risk of return to 0.9420 support. Larger picture shows bears gaining pace and while 0.9541 stays intact, risk of resumption of bear-trend from 0.9755, would remain in play.
Res: 0.9500; 0.9541; 0.9587; 0.9621
Sup: 0.9462; 0.9420; 0.9400; 0.9388
GOLD
Spot Gold remains in sideways mode, with prevailing neutral tone seen while the price holds between 1305/20 range. The upside is capped by 55DMA, with 4-hour / daily studies being negatively aligned that sees increased downside risk for extension of pullback from 1361, 28/10 peak. Violation of pivotal 1305/00 support zone to signal an end of consolidative phase and trigger bearish extension towards 1290, next support. Conversely, clear break above initial 1320 barrier and 1330 zone, previous support / daily cloud base, is required to confirm higher base at 1305 and open further upside.
Res: 1322; 1327; 1335; 1345
Sup: 1314; 1305; 1300; 1293
EURUSD
The Euro ended the second consecutive week in red, as reversal from fresh high at 1.3831 retraced 50% of entire 1.2754/1.3831 rally, on a dip to 1.3294. The pair was additionally pressured by Fed’s decision that was followed by ECB’s rate cut and kept the negative sentiment in play. The price consolidates above fresh low at 1.3294, following Thursday/Friday’s bumpy ride, where the price oscillated between 1.3294 and 1.3450. Fresh weakness, seen last Friday, stayed above weekly low, with price consolidating above 1.33 handle. Near-term technicals remain bearish and see risk of further downside, as daily indicators slid into negative territory. However, further consolidation cannot be ruled out, with current range top at 1.3450, also previous consolidation floor of 04/05 / 11, expected to limit the upside. Only break above 1.3550, 06/11 lower top and near 50% of 1.3831/1.3294, would neutralize bears. On the downside, break below 1.3294 would open 1.3215, 200DMA and 1.3103, 06/09 higher low in extension.
Res: 1.3387; 1.3410; 1.3448; 1.3500
Sup: 1.3343; 1.3316; 1.3293; 1.3275
GBPUSD
Near-term price action remains under pressure, as last week’s recovery rally from 1.59 base, stalled at 1.6120, also 61.8% retracement of 1.6254/1.5901, with subsequent weakness, following the second unsuccessful attempt higher. The price hovers around 1.6000 zone, where weekly close occurred and daily cloud top offers temporary support, with 4-hour indicators breaking into negative territory and seeing risk of fresh attempt towards very strong 1.5900 base. Negative hourly studies support the notion. On the larger picture, 5-week ranges remains intact and only break of either side would define fresh direction. Negatively aligned daily technicals keep the downside pressured, as loss of 1.59 base will also confirm double-top formation.
Res: 1.6029; 1.6057; 1.6100; 1.6116
Sup: 1.6000; 1.5955; 1.5940; 1.5900
USDJPY
The price returned to strength and regained 99.00, following last week’s sharp fall from 99.39 to 97.61. Near-term technicals are positive, however, consolidation under 99.21 peak and session high, is seen on overbought hourly conditions. Immediate support at 98.90, 20DMA, holds for now, with further easing to be contained above 98.50, 20/55DMA, to keep the structure intact. Break above 99.39 is required to resume larger bulls off 96.93 and expose 99.65 and psychological 100.00 barrier. Conversely, loss of 98.50 handle, also 50% of 99.39/97.91 fall, would weaken near-term structure and risk fresh weakness towards higher platform at 98 zone.
Res: 99.21; 99.39; 99.65; 100.00
Sup: 98.90; 98.70; 98.50; 98.00
AUDUSD
The pair remains under pressure, as fresh extension of near-term downmove from 0.9541, 06/11 high, broke below 0.9420/00 support zone. The price dipped to 0.9351 so far, aiming towards 0.9323, 50% retracement of 0.8891/0.9755 rally and 0.9300, psychological support. Negative near-term studies support the notion, however, overextended conditions suggest that fresh weakness would be preceded by consolidative/corrective phase. Previous supports at 0.9400, reinforced by 20DMA and 0.9420, also 55DMA, act as initial barriers, with lower platform at 0.9470, expected to limit the upside and keep bearish structure intact.
Res: 0.9400; 0.9420; 0.9470; 0.9508
Sup: 0.9388; 0.9350; 0.9323; 0.9300
EURUSD
The Euro trades in a triangular consolidation after posting fresh low at 1.3294 and corrective action being capped at 1.3450. Overall tone in the near-term remains negative, as the price lacked momentum for more significant recovery towards 1.3550/60 breakpoint, regain of which is required to signal stronger recovery and shift focus higher. For now, the downside remains vulnerable, with break below triangle support at 1.3355, seen as a trigger for fresh weakness towards key near-term support and low of 07/11 at 1.3294. Violation of the latter to signal resumption of larger downtrend from 1.3831 and open 1.3214/00, 200DMA / round-figure support. Conversely, attempts above triangle resistance at 1.3415, also session highs, would provide temporary relief, however, clearance of 1.3450, recovery high and 61.8% of 1.3546/1.3294 fall, is required to avert immediate downside risk.
Res: 1.3415; 1.3448; 1.3500; 1.3546
Sup: 1.3355; 1.3316; 1.3293; 1.3275
GBPUSD
Cable remains under pressure, as last week’s recovery rally from 1.59 base, stalled at 1.6120, also 61.8% retracement of 1.6254/1.5901, with subsequent weakness leaving a double-top. Extension below 1.6000 handle brings key support and base at 1.5900 at risk. Negative near-term technicals favor scenario of retesting 1.5900. Initial resistance lies at 1.6000, also hourly 55DMA, with 1.6030, recovery rally high and 50% of 1.6113/1.5955 fall, expected to cap. Eventual break below critical 1.5900 support, is seen as a trigger for more significant pullback, as clear break lower is required to confirm daily double-top formation.
Res: 1.6000; 1.6029; 1.6057; 1.6100
Sup: 1.5940; 1.5900; 1.5850; 1.5800
USDJPY
Near-term price action remains supported and continues to trend higher, as reversal of 99.40/97.61 fall, triggered fresh strength. Retest of initial target at 99.65, opens way towards psychological 100 barrier in the near-term, with key short-term resistance at 100.60, 11/09 peak, expected to come in focus on violation of 100 hurdle. Positive near-term technicals support the notion, however, overbought hourly studies see risk of hesitation on approach to 100 barrier. On the larger picture, studies remain positive, with break above weekly bullish pennant, suggesting further upside.
Res: 100.00; 100.21; 100.45; 100.60
Sup: 99.09; 98.90; 98.15; 97.96
AUDUSD
The pair remains under pressure, as fresh extension of near-term downmove from 0.9541, 06/11 high, tested so far 0.9323, 50% retracement of 0.8891/0.9755 rally, with break lower to open 0.9300, psychological support and daily Ichimoku cloud top. Negative near-term studies keep the downside favored, however, overextended conditions suggest that fresh weakness would be preceded by consolidative/corrective phase. Previous support zone at 0.9400/20, offer initial resistance, where corrective rallies should be ideally capped. Extension below 0.9300 to expose 0.9280, 30/09 higher low and mark full retracement of 0.9280/0.9755 bull-phase. Negative daily studies support the notion
Res: 0.9366; 0.9389; 0.9400; 0.9420
Sup: 0.9300; 0.9280; 0.9250; 0.9200