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AceTraderFx Feb 20: Intra-Day News and Views (EUR/USD)
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
20 Feb 2015 08:41GMT
EUR/USD - ..... More on Greece. Reuters reported Austrian FinMin Hans Joerg Schelling was quoted by a newspaper as saying Greece must complete its current bailout package before any new programme can be agreed, in comments which his ministry said came before he saw Greece's latest loan request.
Schelling told the Oberoesterreichische Nachrichten paper that the request fm Athens had to "respect the conditions" of the current bailout programme. Afterwards, "we can discuss a new programme with new conditions, but now the current programme has to be completed", he was quoted as saying, reiterating his stated position.
A ministry spokesman said his comments to the paper had been made early on Thur. Schelling has not made any public comments on the latest Greek proposals that are due to be discussed by euro zone finance ministers on Friday.
Finland's finance minister said he was hopeful that euro zone finance ministers could reach a deal on extending Greece's bailout programme at their meeting on Friday.
"Last night, a spark of hope arose that an understanding could be reached ... so that Greece could continue the underlying programme to strengthen its economy," Antti Rinne said in a live streamed interview with the newspaper Helsingin Sanomat.
Finland n Germany earlier rejected a Greek proposal for a six-month extension to its euro zone loan agreement.
Austrian FINMIN Schelling says prospects for Grexit not very high, damage to Greeks wud be higher to euro zone - paper.
Schelling says Greece must respect conditions of bailout; prospects for GRExit not very high, damage to Greeks would be higher than to eurozone - Oberosterreichische Nachrichten paper.
Finnish Fin Min Rinne says spark of hope on Greece deal arised last night.
AceTraderFx Feb 23: Intra-Day News and Views (USD/JPY) & data to be released today
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
23 Feb 2015 00:32GMT
USD/JPY - ...... More on earlier release of BoJ minutes. Reuters reported 3 members of the BoJ's policy board expressed doubts the BOJ can meet its inflation target because of a slowdown in underlying inflation and falling oil prices, minutes of the bank's January monetary policy meeting showed.
One of the three members said that even though the yen is weak, annual inflation excluding food and energy is only slightly above zero, according to minutes published on Monday.
Another of the three members said the collapse in oil prices from last year has slowed inflationary momentum.
In a quarterly review of its long-term forecasts in January, the BOJ cut its core consumer inflation projection to 1.0% from an estimate 1.7% issued 3 months ago, largely due to the global oil price slump.
BOJ January meeting minutes showed members agreed to share common forecast for oil prices as oil price swings could have big impact on CPI;
many members saw no change to long-term price trend;
many members said high chance of meeting inflation target around FY 2015 assuming gradual increase in oil prices.
Data to be released this week :
Japan BoJ minutes, China market holiday, Germany Ifo business climate,current conditions, expectations, UK CBI trades and U.S. existing home sales on Monday.
China market holiday, New Zealand RBNZ inflation expectation, Germany GDP, France business climate, UK BBA mortgage approvals, EU inflation, U.S. Caseshiller and consumer confidence, Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen’s testimony before the U.S. Senate Banking Committee on Tuesday.
Australia Wage price, China manufacturing PMI, Italy trade balance and U.S. new home sales on Wednesday.
New Zealand exports, imports, trade balance, Australia capex, Germany consumer sentiment, unemployment rate, France consumer confidence, U.K.GDP, Italy retail sales, business confidence, consumer confidence, EU services sentiment, business climate, consumer confidence, economic sentiment, Canada inflation, U.S. inflation, jobless claims, durable goods and monthly home price on Thursday.
Japan inflation, unemployment rate, retail sales, industrial output, housing starts, construction orders, UK consumer confidence, France producer prices, Swiss KOF indicator, Italy CPI, Germany CPI, U.S. Chicago PMI and pending home sales on Friday.
AceTraderFx Feb 23: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views (EUR/USD)
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
23 Feb 2015 09:15GMT
EUR/USD - ...... News from Ifo economist, quote:-
'current situation is very good, abv long-term average;
industry has seen domestic demand weaken slightly, exports still doing well; oil price and euro exchange rate giving support, Greece and Ukraine crisis have not had an impact on German economy;
it will be hard to surpass strg growth seen in Q4 in Q1 of 2015.'
Ifo business climate, current conditions and expectations came in weaker-than-expected at 106.8, 111.3 and 102.5 vs forecasts of 107.7, 112.7 and 103.0 respectively.
Greece govt spokesman said Greek reforms list will be sent to EU partners within the day, and the list will include reforms against tax evasion and corruption. They will be discussing with partners to ensure list is accepted.
European Union Economics Commissioner Pierre Moscovici comment that sanction against France may be necessary if a good deal cannot be reached over its deficit.
Earlier Euro trades with a neutral bias in directionless Asian session after price extended retreat from Friday's 1.1430 high to 1.1358 at Asian open as traders remain cautious after Greece gained conditional bailout extension late on Fri and market awaits the formal submission of Greece's reform proposals to the troika later today for their scrutiny & then approval on Tuesday.
Until then, choppy trading below said Friday's 1.1430 top is expected to continue in European morning. Pay attention to the release of German Ifo Feb business climate (forecast is 107.7 vs reading of 106.7), a better-than-expected number would prompt renewed buying in the single currency.
AceTraderFx Feb 23: Weekly Technical Outlook & Trading Ideals USD/CHF
WEEKLY USD/CHF TECHNICAL OUTLOOK
Last Update At 23 Feb 2015 00:53GMT
Trend Daily Chart
Down
Daily Indicators
Turning up
21 HR EMA
0.9435
55 HR EMA
0.9440
Trend Hourly Chart
Near term down
Hourly Indicators
Turning down
13 HR RSI
54
14 HR DMI
-ve
Daily Analysis
Consolidation with downside bias
Resistance
0.9576 - 61.8% proj. of 0.8600-0.9247 fm 0.9176
0.9554 - Prev. hourly sup, now res
0.9535 - Last Fri's high
Support
0.9374 - Last Fri's ow
0.9314 - Last Thur's low
0.9292 - Last Wed's low
. USD/CHF - 0.9410 ... U.S. dollar ratcheted higher against Swiss franc fm last Mon's low at 0.9284 n price rose to fresh one-month high at 0.9535 on Fri due to active cross selling in chf (eur/chf rose fm 1.0664 to 1.0812), however, profit-taking knocked price lower to 0.9372 in late NY on Fri.
. The broad outlook remains the same as recent updates. Despite dlr's free fall fm Jan's fresh 2-1/2 yr peak of 1.0240 to a 4-month trough of 0.7360 after SNB dropped the 1.20 franc cap, subsequent swift bounce had left a spike bottom formation on the daily chart. Although euro's strg retreat from last Fri's fresh 1-month high at 0.9535 suggests the erratic upmove fm Jan's 4-month low at 0.7360 has formed a temp. top n choppy consolidation wud be seen for a retrace to 0.9292 n possibly twds 0.9176 this week, however, reckon 0.9140 (being 38.2% r of intermediate rise fm 0.8500) shud contain downside n yield rebound. Abv 0.9535 wud bring further gain twds 0.9576 (61.8% proj. of 0.8600-0.9247 fm 0.9176) but 0.9673 (50% projection of 0.9352-0.9347 fm 0.9176) wud cap upside.
. Today, in view of near term bearish scenario on dlr, selling on recovery is favoured. Only abv 0.9500 wud revive bullishness for re-test of 0.9535.
AceTraderFx Feb 24: Intra-Day News and Views (USD/JPY) & data to be released today
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
24 Feb 2015 02:14GMT
USD/JPY- ....... The greenback briefly rebound to 119.35 on Monday, however, active cross buying in yen knocked price lower in New York.
Offers are now tipped at 119.15/20 and more at 119.30-40.
On the downside, some bids are located at 118.80 and more at 118.70-65 with stops only seen below 118.50.
On the data front, U.S. existing home sales, released on Monday, declined 4.9 percent to an annual rate of 4.82 million units, the lowest level since last April. U.S. home resales fell sharply to their lowest level in nine months in January amid a shortage of properties on the market.
Although Nikkei-225 index retreated briefly in Tokyo morning, it pared early losses and currently rose by 17 points to 18484, prompting some investors to buy usd/jpy.
Earlier Japan ECONMIN Amari says Japan-US TPP talks are behind schedule.
Yesterday although the greenback met selling interest at Asian open and retreated to 118.88 in Asia, price pared its losses and rose to intra-day high at 119.35 in early European morning.
However, renewed selling there capped gains and price fell to session low at 118.82 in NY as investors remain cautious ahead of Fed Yellen's testimony on Tuesday.
Data to be released on Tuesday:
China market holiday, New Zealand RBNZ inflation expectation, Germany GDP, France business climate, UK BBA mortgage approvals, EU inflation, U.S. Caseshiller and consumer confidence, Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen’s testimony before the U.S. Senate Banking Committee.
AceTraderFx Feb 24: Daily Technical Outlook & Trading Ideals GBP/USD
DAILY GBP/USD TECHNICAL OUTLOOK
Last Update At 24 Feb 201500:28GMT
Trend Daily Chart
Down
Daily Indicators
Rising
21 HR EMA
1.5428
55 HR EMA
1.5412
Trend Hourly Chart
Up
Hourly Indicators
Rising
13 HR RSI
63
14 HR DMI
+ve
Daily Analysis
Resumption of upmove fm 1.4952
Resistance
1.5569 - 50% r of 1.6186-1.4952
1.5480 - Last Wed's high
1.5475 - Y'day's high
Support
1.5333 - Y'day's low
1.5317 - Last Tue's low
1.5278 - 38.2% r of 1.4952-1.5480
. GBP/USD - 1.5450 ... Despite cable's brief breach of last Fri's 1.5343 low to 1.5333 in Europe on Mon, the British pound rallied on renewed cross buying in sterling (eur/gbp fell to a fresh 7-year trough at 0.7326) n cable strengthened to as high as 1.5475 (just below last Wed's 1.5480 high).
. Looking at the hourly n daily charts, cable's firmness after y'day's rally fm 1.5333 to 1.5475 suggests the pullback fm last Wed's high at 1.5480 has ended at 1.5333 n recent erratic upmove fm Jan's fresh 17-month trough at 1.4952 shud resume after minor consolidation n abv said res wud confirm aforesaid upmove fm 1.4952 to retrace MT fall fm 1.7192 (2014 peak) has once again resumed n yield further gain to 1.5569 (50% r of 1.6186-1.4952) later. On the downside, only a breach of 1.5333 wud bring a stronger retracement to 1.5278 (38.2% r of 1.4952-1.5480), however, reckon 1.5216 (50% r) shud contain downside n yield a much-needed rebound later.
. In view of near term bullish scenario, buying cable on dips in anticipation of further gain to 1.5500 1st, however, high readings on hourly oscillators shud cap price at 1.5569 today. Below 1.5333 risks 1.5278.
AceTraderFx Feb 24: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views (EUR/USD)
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
24 Feb 2015 09:24GMT
EUR/USD - ..... Reuters report that the Eurogroup head Dijsselbloem says, quote:
'Greek gov't is very serious regarding its reform commitments;
Greek list of reforms is just a first step, it's going to take time to get into details;
only one gov't had a meeting to discuss Grexit and that was the British gov't;
Eurozone ministers cud consider further debt relief measures if Greece meets all criteria;
at the end of the 4-month bailout extension, Eurogroup will assess Greek debt sustainability, primary surplus;
fiscal targets can be adjusted in Greek programme if economic conditions justify this, cannot be decided unilaterally.'
While BoE's Forbes said, quote:
'risks fm inflation, asset bubbles consumption and debt are moderate, cud deteriorate quickly;
risks cud factor into a case to tighten monetary policy in the new future; external factors for current low inflation in UK will fade quickly;
UK rates not yet generating inflation pressure that cud not be addressed in timely fashion.'
AceTraderFx Feb 25: Daily Market Outlook on Major (USD/JPY)
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK
Update Time:25 Feb 2015 00:54 GMT
USD/JPY - 118.80
Despite yesterday's cross-inspired rebound above last week's 119.41 high to 119.84 in New York morning, subsequent selloff to 118.76 following Fed chief Yellen's mildly dovish testimony suggests early erratic rise from last week's low at 118.20 has ended there and consolidation with downside bias is in store today.
However, only below 118.20 would retain bearishness for recent fall from February's 120.48 to extend to 117.90/00, loss of downward momentum should keep price above 117.62 (being 61.8% r of 115.85-120.48).
On the upside, expect 119.41 to cap intra-day recovery and only above 119.84/88 res would risk marginal gain to 120.00/04 before prospect of another decline.
AceTraderFx Feb 25: Intra-Day News and Views (USD/JPY) & data to be released today
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
25 Feb 2015 02:28GMT
USD/JPY - ...... The greenback is nursing loss in Asian trading after tanking from Tuesday's near 2-week high of 119.84 to 118.76 in NY, then to 118.63 in Tokyo morning after tripping light stops below 118.70.
Although traders sold yen broadly ahead of Fed chief Janet Yellen's testimony before the Congress and the approval of Greek debt extension boosted risk sentiment, broad-based selling in dlr quickly occurred when Yellen's released testimony gave no clear indication of when the much-awaited rate increase would take place, subsequent release of downbeat U.S. consumer confidence further added pressure to the pair.
Looks like consolidation with downside bias would be seen today, however, intra-day gain in the Nikkei to a fresh 15-year peak should keep price above last week's low at 118.20.
Offers are tipped at 118.90/00 and more above with some stops reported above 119.40 whilst some bids are noted at 118.60-40 and more below with fairly large stops touted below 118.20.
Yesterday despite rising through Asian and European sessions to an intra-day high at 119.84 in NY morning, the greenback met heavy selling interest after comments from Fed's Yellen hinted that there would be no rate hike sometime soon and tumbled to as low as 119.03 at NY midday and continues to remain under pressure.
Offers was now seen at 119.30/40 and more above at 119.50/60 with stops building up above there whilst initial bids was noted at 118.60/70, suggesting selling on recovery was still favored.
Data to be released on Wednesday:
Australia Wage price, China manufacturing PMI, Italy trade balance and U.S. new home sales and second of the 2-day Fed Chair Yellen's testimony before the Congress.
AceTraderFx Feb 25: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views (EUR/USD)
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
25 Feb 2015 07:58GMT
EUR/USD - ..... Euro pares intra-day gain after jumping to session high of 1.1388/89 shortly after European open, the break of yesterday's 1.1359 top bodes well for further gain later in the day once offers at 1.1390/00 are absorbed and fairly large stops are reported above 1.1450.
Bids have been raised to 1.1360-40 area with some stops below 1.1330.
A piece of euro-supportive news, Reuters reported French consumer confidence rose to its highest level in nearly 3 years in February, INSEE statistics agency said on Wednesday.
The index rose to 92 from 90 in January, beating analyst forecasts of 91 and reaching its highest level since May 2012. It was still well below its long-term average of 100.
The index, which is not closely correlated to consumer spending trends, hit an all-time low in May and June 2013 of 79. The highest level since the survey was conducted on a monthly basis was 125 in Jan 2001.
Early this morning Euro maintains a firm undertone in subdued Asian trading after Tuesday's intra-day wild swings.
The single currency was on the defensive in European morning as market awaited European Commission's to Greece's submission of its reforms proposal.
Price fell from intra-day 1.1343 high to 1.1296 in European morning and despite a knee-jerk reaction after the EC accepted Greece's reforms plan, euro spiked to session lows of 1.1288 when Fed chief testimony was released but price quickly rallied on short-covering to day's high of 1.1359 before chopping inside a 1.1302-48 range in NY afternoon.
Euro is expected to gain respite as price has managed to shrug off bearish fundamentals, suggesting the 3-week long sideways range of 1.1534-1.1270 would continue in the coming days and upside risk has increased for further upside gain on more short-covering.