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AceTraderFx Oct 13: Intra-day Market Moving News and Views (GBP/USD)
Intra-day Market Moving News and Views
13 Oct 2015 09:00GMT
GBP/USD- ...... Although cable edged higher in Asia n briefly rose above last Friday's 1.5382 high to a fresh 3-week peak at 1.5388 in European morning, lack of follow-through buying prompted long-liquidation.
Price later tumbled to 1.5283 and then lower to 1.5240 after data showed that consumer price inflation in the U.K. fell into negative territory in Sept.
The U.K. Office for National Statistics said on Tuesday the rate of consumer price inflation in U.K. fell to a seasonally adjusted -0.1% last month, from 0.0% in August Market had expected a flat reading in September.
Meanwhile, month-over-month, consumer price inflation declined -0.1% in Sep, compared to estimates for a flat reading and following a gain of 0.2% in Aug. Separately, core CPI, which excludes food, energy, alcohol, and tobacco costs rose at a seasonally adjusted rate of 1.0% last month, unchanged from Aug and compared to forecasts for a reading of 1.1%.
At present, offers are reported at 1.5270-80 and then 1.5300-10 with mixture of offers and stops in the region of 1.5340-60.
On the downside, bids are noted at 1.5220-10 and around 1.5200 with stops just below 1.5180.
AceTraderFx Oct 13: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK
Update Time:13 Oct 2015 08:09 GMT
USD/JPY - 119.72
Despite Thursday's sharp retreat to 119.63, subsequent rebound helped by increased risk appetite due to the rally in global equities suggests further choppy trading above September's trough at 118.68 would continue with upside bias and gain towards 120.38, then 120.57 (reaction high) would be seen, break there would retain bullishness for 120.99/00 before prospect of a correction early next week.
On the downside, only below 119.21 would abort daily bullishness on the buck and turn outlook bearish for weakness towards 118.60/68 area.
AceTraderFx Oct 14: Intra-Day News and Views (USD/JPY) & data to be released today
Intra-day Market Moving News and Views
14 Oct 2015 00:49GMT
USD/JPY - ...... The greenback continued to ratchet lower throughout Asian n European session and fell to session low at 119.55 at New York open on increased caution surrounding Fed's timing of a rate hike. Despite a brief recovery to 119.90 in New York morning, dlr met renewed selling n retreated again. Dlr's descent accelerated at Tokyo open and price tumbled to 119.54 due to the selloff in Nikkei-225 index (currently down by 279 points).
U.S. will release its retail sales and retail sales ex. autos at 12:30GMT. Street forecasts are 0.3% n 0.1% vs previous readings of 0.2% and 0.1% respectively.
A surprise to the downside would stoke further speculation that the Fed won't raise its rates this year, sending the dlr lower.
Bids have now been lowered to 119.40/50 and more below at 119.20/30 with stops building up below there whilst initial offers are noted at 119.90/00, suggesting choppy trading would be seen.
Data to be released on Wednesday:
Japan CGPI, China CPI and PPI, France CPI, Italy CPI, UK average earnings, claimant count unemployment change, ILO unemployment, euro zone industrial production, Switzerland ZEW investor sentiment, U.S. retail sales and business inventories.
AceTraderFx Oct 14: Intra-day Market Moving News and Views (EUR/USD)
Intra-day Market Moving News and Views
14 Oct 2015 02:00GMT
GBP/USD - ...... Despite y'day's initial rally to session high at 1.5388 in early European morning on confirmation of M&A deal between AB Inbev and SAB Miller. However, the rally was short-lived and price swiftly pared its gains and tumbled sharply to 1.5231, then to intra-day low at 1.5201 at New York open on the release of poor UK inflation data together with comments fm BoE's Vlieghe.
New Bank of England policymaker Gertjan Vlieghe, speaking in parliament, said 'there are risks to either side, but given the current low levels of inflation the risks are probably skewed to the downside; it is one of the things that will prevent the UK economy from accelerating meaningfully.'
UK will release its employment data at 08:30GMT. Street forecasts for claimant count and ILO unemployment rate are -2.1K and 5.5% vs previous readings of 1.2K and 5.5% respectively.
Offers are now seen at 1.5280/90 and more above at 1.5300/10 with stops building up above there whilst initial bids are noted at 1.5210/20, suggesting choppy trading would be seen till European open.
AceTraderFx Oct 14: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK
Update Time: 14 Oct 201501:39 GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1389
Although price has retreated after yesterday's breach of Monday's high at 1.1397 to 1.1411 on dollar's broad-based weakness and further choppy trading is likely to be seen, as aforesaid move signals the recent upmove from 1.1105 has resumed, upside bias is seen for gain towards 1.1411, break would yield stronger retracement of decline from 1.1460 towards 1.1425/60.
However, near term loss of momentum would keep price well below aforesaid top.
On the downside, only below 1.1150 would confirm a temporary top has been made and turn outlook bearish for further weakness to 1.1120/25.
AceTraderFx Oct 14: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK
Update Time: 14 Oct 2015 08:44 GMT
USD/JPY - 119.50
Despite Thursday's sharp retreat to 119.63, subsequent rebound helped by increased risk appetite due to the rally in global equities suggests further choppy trading above September's trough at 118.68 would continue with upside bias and gain towards 120.38, then 120.57 (reaction high) would be seen, break there would retain bullishness for 120.99/00 before prospect of a correction early next week.
On the downside, only below 119.21 would abort daily bullishness on the buck and turn outlook bearish for weakness towards 118.60/68 area.
AceTraderFx Oct 15: Intra-Day News and Views (USD/JPY) & data to be released today
Intra-day Market Moving News and Views
15 Oct 2015 00:44GMT
USD/JPY - ....... The greenback continued to ratchet lower throughout Asian and European sessions and dropped to 119.07 in New York morning after the release of poor U.S. retail sales data. Intra-day decline accelerated and price tumbled to intra-day low at 118.63 in New York afternoon as the release of a slightly dovish Fed Beige book increased speculation that the Fed won't raise its rates anytime soon.
However, price found renewed support at Asian open and rebounded strongly to 119.09 due to the early rise in Nikkei-225 index.
There is a slew of data from U.S. today but pay particular attention to the release of jobless claims and CPI mm and YY at 12:30GMT. Street forecasts are 270K, -0.1% and -0.2% respectively. A release of downbeat figures would further fuel speculation that the central bank is not ready to hike its rates, hence sending dlr lower.
Bids are now seen at 118.80/90 and more below at 118.60/70 with stops building up below there whilst initial offers are noted at 119.20/30, suggesting further choppy trading would be seen before recent decline resumed.
Data to be released on Thursday:
New Zealand manufacturing PMI, Australia employment change, full-time employment, participation rate and unemployment rate, Japan Tertiary Industry Index, industrial output, capacity utilization, U.S. real weekly earnings, jobless claims, NY Fed manufacturing, CPI and Philly Fed business index.
AceTraderFx Oct 15: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK
Update Time: 15 Oct 201501:25 GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1467
Although price has retreated after yesterday's breach of Tuesday's high at 1.1411 to 1.1489 on dollar's broad-based weakness and further choppy trading is likely to be seen, as aforesaid move signals the recent erratic upmove from 1.1087 has resumed, upside bias is seen for gain towards 1.1489, break would yield stronger retracement of decline from 1.1715 towards 1.1530/31.
However, near term loss of momentum would keep price well 1.1566 and yield correction.
On the downside, only below 1.1344 would confirm a temporary top has been made and turn outlook bearish for further weakness to 1.1238/40.
AceTraderFx Oct 15: Daily Technical & Trading Outlook USD/JPY
DAILY USD/JPY TECHNICAL OUTLOOK
Last Update At 15 Oct 2015 00:06GMT
Trend Daily Chart
Sideways
Daily Indicators
Turning up
21 HR EMA
119.14
55 HR EMA
119.48
Trend Hourly Chart
Down
Hourly Indicators
Rising fm o/s
13 HR RSI
29
14 HR DMI
-ve
Daily Analysis
Choppy trading to continue
Resistance
120.35 - Last Fri's high
119.90 - Tue's NY high
119.66 - Y'day's NY high
Support
118.60 - Sep low (04)
118.29 - 61.8% r of 116.15 to 121.74
117.79 - 70.7% r of 116.15-1.2174
. USD/JPY - 118.74... Dlr continued this week's losing streak n ratcheted lower in Asia due to selloff in the Nikkei, price fell further in NY morning following tepid U.S. retail sales n hit session lows of 118.63 b4 stabilising.
. Looking at the bigger picture, dlr's rally fm Aug's 116.15 low to 121.74 signals early correction fm 2015 near 13-year peak at 125.86 (Jun) has ended there, however, subsequent daily swings inside the 1-month long choppy 121.74-118.60 range suggests recent volatile consolidation would continue as not even Sep's FOMC outcome n disappointing U.S. jobs report could move price outside the indicated broad range. Therefore, buying on dips twd 118.60 in anticipation of subsequent headway twd 121.24 is favoured but only abv 121.74 would signal an upside break has occured n yield swift gain to 122.15 (61.8% r of 125.28-116.15). Only below 118.60 may risk swift drop to 117.79 (70.7% r of 116.15-121.74).
. Today, as price has traded near indicated said Sep's 118.60 low ahead of Asian open, a break there would signal a downside break of the recent broad range has occured, then weakness to 118.25/30 would follow but reckon 118.00/10 would hold. We have exited previous long as abv 119.66 needed for 119.90.
AceTraderFx Oct 15: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK
Update Time: 15 Oct 2015 08:04 GMT
USD/JPY - 118.35
The greenback's intra-day sharp selloff and subsequent breach of September's trough at 118.60 signals the erratic decline from 121.75 has once again resumed and consolidation with downside bias would be seen for further weakness towards 118.29, then 117.79.
However, near term loss of momentum would keep price above 117.50/60 and yield a much-needed correction early next week.
On the upside, only above 118.88 (previous support, now resistane) would indicate a temporary low has been made and turn outlook bullish for a stronger retracement towards 119.17/20.