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AceTraderFx Feb 26: Intra-Day News and Views (USD/JPY) & data to be released today
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
26 Feb 2015 02:22GMT
USD/JPY - .... ... The greenback ratcheted higher in Tokyo morning due to the rise in Nikkei-225 index which rose by 87 point to 18673 after Wednesday's release of upbeat U.S. housing and Chinese factory data. U.S. dollar rebounded to 119.09 before easing as offers are tipped at 119.10-20 and more at 119.40.
On the downside, some bids are located at 118.80 and more at 118.65-60 with mixture of bids and stops seen at 118.50.
Comment from BOJ broad member Ishida, quote:
- Expects Global Economy To Gradually Accelerate Pace Of Growth
- Japan Economy Recovering Moderately As A Trend
- Private Consumption Firm, Likely To Resume Moderate Recovery
- Shouldn't Adjust Policy To Target Certain Timing For Hitting 2% Price Target
- Policy Ought To Be Adjusted When There Is Big Risk Japan May Fail To Achieve Stable Price Growth, Sustainable Economic Growth
- Too Early To Debate Exit Strategy From QQE Now
- If Inflation Accelerates Ahead, Time Will Come When BOJ Needs To Gradually Whittle Down Pace Of Asset Purchases
- Falling Oil Prices Led To Downgrade To BOJ's Inflation Forecast For Fiscal 2015 But Will Push Up Price Growth As A Trend
- Don't Think Oil Price Falls Pose Problems To Monetary Policy As Long As Consumer Inflation Accelerates Again Toward 2%
- Some People Advocate Focusing More On Core-Core CPI But Need To Look At Price Gauges Including Food Costs To Judge Broad Price Trend
- See No Change In Broad Uptrend In Japan Consumer Inflation
- IMF's Downgrade Of Global Growth Estimates Shows There Are Vulnerabilities In Global Recovery Trend
- Japan Real Exports Clearly Turned Positive, Positive Economic Momentum Steadily Increasing Amid Weak-Yen Environment
Data to be released on Thursday:
New Zealand exports, imports, trade balance, Australia capex, Germany consumer sentiment, unemployment rate, France consumer confidence, U.K.GDP, Italy retail sales, business confidence, consumer confidence, EU services sentiment, business climate, consumer confidence, economic sentiment, Canada inflation, U.S. inflation, jobless claims, durable goods and monthly home price.
AceTraderFx Feb 26: Daily Market Outlook on Major - EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK
Update Time: 26 Feb 201502:35 GMT
EUR/USD- 1.1365
The single currency rebounded fm Tuesday's low at 1.1289 to 1.1388 on Wednesday on short-covering, suggesting further choppy trading inside recent established broad range of 1.1543-1.1270 would be seen with neutral bias.
Above 1.1400 may bring gain to 1.1450, however, resistance at 1.1499 should cap upside.
On the downside, a breach of key daily support at 1.1270 would confirm the corrective rise from Jan's 11-year trough at 1.1098 has indeed ended at 1.1534 and yield retreat to 1.1224 and then 1.1200.
AceTraderFx Feb 27: Intra-Day News and Views (USD/JPY) & data to be released today
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
27 Feb 2015 02:37GMT
USD/JPY- ...... Despite yesterday's brief drop to 118.68 in European morning, the greenback rebounded strongly to 119.51 due to dlr's broad-based strength after hawkish comments Federal Reserve's James Bullard together with upbeat U.S. economic data.
Bids are now located at 119.20-15 and more at 119.05-00 with some stops seen below 119.00.
On the upside, offers are tipped at 119.50 and more at 119.70-80.
Reuters reported Japanese households cut spending more than expected and retail sales fell for the first time in 7 months in Jan, data showed on Friday, a sign the central bank's radical stimulus has yet to convince consumers that inflation will take hold.
Factory output jumped in January as exports rebounded on solid U.S. and Asia demand, but manufactures see output rising only slightly in the current month and then slumping in March, adding to evidence of an uneven economic recovery.
The soft consumption is a headache for the BoJ, which hopes its aggressive money printing will fuel expectations that prices will rise ahead and prompt households to spend more now.
Yesterday BOJ Gov Kuroda said that they won't tolerate price rises exceeding beyond price stability goal and there is no plan to change Monetary Policy in response to sales tax hike scheduled In 2017.
Data to be released on Friday:
Japan inflation, unemployment rate, retail sales, industrial output, housing starts, construction orders, UK consumer confidence, France producer prices, Swiss KOF indicator, Italy CPI, Germany CPI, import price index, U.S. GDP, Chicago PMI and pending home sales.
AceTraderFx Feb 27: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views (EUR/USD)
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
27 Feb 2015 03:31GMT
EUR/USD- ...... Reuters news, Japan fund managers raise global stock weighting to 44.6% in February from 41.4% in January; trim global bond weighting to 51.% in February from 51.7% in January and raise euro zone stick weightings, cut Japan bond weighting in February.
Headline euro zone inflation has plunged to -0.6%, well under the ECB's target. A majority of forecasters -- 63 of 85 -- said it won't rebound by much even if global energy prices, which have dragged it down recently, start to rise.
The ECB's bond purchase programme, which includes sovereign debt, will run from March until September 2016 or until inflation shows signs of picking up pace.
The ECB is expected to expand its balance sheet by about 1.1 tln euros by the end of next year, matching its level of early 2012, when the euro zone debt crisis raged.
35 of 81 economists expect the ECB to close out its QE programme by September 2016, on its intended schedule. Forty said the central bank will need to extend it beyond that date, while the remaining 6 said the ECB will conclude bond purchases before then.
But economists are not convinced the programme will lead to a revival in lending to the real economy and fuel demand. The liquidity flush by the ECB back in 2012 did not materially improve loans to the private sector at that time either.
AceTraderFx Feb 27: Daily Technical Outlook & Trading Ideals GBP/USD
DAILY GBP/USD TECHNICAL OUTLOOK
Last Update At 27/02/2015 00:36 GMT
Trend Daily Chart
Down
Daily Indicators
Rising
21 HR EMA
1.5448
55 HR EMA
1.5467
Trend Hourly Chart
Down
Hourly Indicators
Rising fm o/s
13 HR RSI
37
14 HR DMI
-ve
Daily Analysis
Consolidation with downside bias
Resistance
1.5554 - Y'day's 8-week high
1.5517 - Y'day's Euroepan morning low
1.5467 - Wed's European low (now res)
Support
1.5395 - Y'day's low
1.5376 - 50% r of 1.5197-1.5554
1.5333 - Mon's low
. GBP/USD - 1.5425 ... Although cable continued its recent winning streaks on Thur n climbed briefly abv previous day's 1.5538 top to a fresh 8-week peak of 1.5554 in Asia, price retreated to 1.5517 in European morning n later tumbled in NY session to as low as 1.5395 on hawkish Fed comments plus upbeat U.S. data.
. Y'day's near term 'reversal' fm 1.5554 confirms recent erratic upmove fm Jan's fresh 17-month bottom has made a temporary top there n consolidation with downside bias is seen in the coming days. A 'minimum' 38.2% of aforesaid upmove fm 1.4952 wud pressure the pound to 1.5324, this is just below this week's low at 1.5333 (Mon), Looking ahead, a daily close below 1.5333 wud bode ill for sterling n price wud be en route twd 1.5233 (50% r fm 1.4952) n then twd chart obj. at 1.5197. Therefore, in view of abv bearish scenario, selling cable on recovery in anticipation of resumption of decline is recommended n only abv 1.5500/10 wud dampen bearishness, risk possible re-test of 1.5554.
. Today, although intra-day recovery at Asian open suggests initial consolidation is in store, reckon 1.5467 shud cap upside n yield another fall to 1.5376/80, however, reckon 1.5333 sup wud remain intact.
AceTraderFx Mar 2: Intra-Day News and Views (EUR/USD) & data to be released today
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
02 Mar 2015 00:16GMT
EUR/USD - ..... Euro opened lower in NZ on Monday to 1.1167, then 1.1160 ahead of Asian open.
Reuters reported Greece's leftist PM Alexis Tsipras accused Spain n Portugal on Saturday of leading a conservative conspiracy to topple his anti-austerity goverment, saying they feared their own radical forces before elections this year.
In a speech to his Syriza party, Tsipras accused them of taking a hard line in negotiations which led to the euro zone extending the bailout programme last week for 4 months.
"We found opposing us an axis of powers ... led by the governments of Spain n Portugal which for obvious political reasons attempted to lead the entire negotiations to the brink," said Tsipras, who won an election on January 25.
"Their plan was and is to wear down, topple or bring our goverment to unconditional surrender before our work begins to bear fruit and before the Greek example affects other countries," he said, adding: "And mainly before the elections in Spain."
Tsipras has portrayed the Eurogroup deal as a victory for Greece, even though it meant extending the bailout programme he had promised voters to scrap. He noted German lawmakers from Chancellor Angela Merkel's conservatives had attacked the Greek leadership when they approved the extension on Fri.
"We have all watched the strong opposition within Angela Merkel's party which shows that unacceptable concessions have been made to Greece," he said.
So far he has public backing. A poll conducted by the University of Macedonia for SKAI TV showed 56 percent of Greeks believed the extension had been a success, compared with 24 percent who said it represented a failure.
Ireland's FinMin has said Athens must negotiate a 3rd bailout when the extension expires in Jun - something Tsipras denied on Friday.
FinMin Yanis Varoufakis called into question a major debt repayment Greece must make to the ECB this summer, after acknowledging Athens faces problems in meeting its obligations to international creditors.
Data to be released this week:
New Zealand imports, exports, trade balance, Australia new home sales, business inventories, Japan manufacturing PMI, China HSBC manufacturing PMI, Swiss manufacturing PMI, Italy manufacturing PMI, unemployment rate, France manufacturing PMI, Germany manufacturing PMI, EU manufacturing PMI, unemployment rate, UK manufacturing PMI, mortgage approvals, Canada current account, U.S. PCE, personal income, personal consumption, ISM manufacturing PMI and construction spending on Monday.
Australia building approvals, RBA rate decision, Swiss GDP, Germany retail sales, UK construction PMI, EU producer prices, Canada GDP, producer prices, U.S. redbook retail sales and ISM New York index on Tuesday.
Australia GDP, China HSBC services PMI, Italy services PMI, France services PMI, Germany services PMI, EU services PMI, retail sales, UK services PMI, Canada BoC rate decision, U.S. ADP employment and Fed beige book on Wednesday.
Australia exports, imports, trade balance, retail sales, France unemployment rate, Germany industrial orders, Italy GDP, UK BoE rate decision, EU ECB rate decision, Canada Ivey PMI and U.S. jobless claims and factory orders on Thursday.
Japan leading indicator, Germany industrial output, France exports, imports, budget balance, Swiss CPI, Italy producer prices, EU GDP, Canada building permits, exports, imports, trade balance, U.S. non-farm payrolls, private payrolls, average earnings, unemployment rate and international trade on Friday.
AceTraderFx Mar 2: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views (EUR/USD)
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
02 Mar 2015 09:50GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1208... The single currency found renewed buying at 1.1166 at European open n rose to 1.1213 in European morning, supported by the release of some upbeat manufacturing PMIs from the Eurozone together with cross-buying of euro vs sterling.
Italy and Germany manufacturing PMIs came in better-than-expected at 51.9 n 51.1 vs forecasts of 50.3 n 50.9 respectively.
Bids are now seen at 1.1970/80 n more below at 1.1950/60 with stops building up below there whilst initial offers are noted at 1.1240/50, suggesting further choppy trading is envisaged ahead of NY open.
This morning the single currency met renewed selling at 1.1245 on Friday due to dollar's broad-based strength on upbeat U.S. data n Fed officials' hawkish remarks. Euro further extended weakness to 1.1160 in Asian morning before recovering. Offers was now tipped at 1.1185-90 and more at 1.1200. On the downside, bids was located at 1.1160-50 with some stops seen below 1.1150.
Market players is focusing on the the European Central Bank (ECB) meeting on Thursday. Investors are keenly waiting for further details on its 1 trillion euro ($1.1 trillion) government bond-buying programme, which begins this month.
Economists expect the ECB will also decide whether to accept Greek government bonds as collateral for its direct funding, which the bank stopped doing at the start of February.
AceTraderFx Mar 3: Intra-Day News and Views (USD/JPY) & data to be released today
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
03 Mar 2015 02:06GMT
USD/JPY - ....... The greenback extending yesterday's rally to 120.27 in Tokyo morning due to the initial rise in Nikkei-225 following the rise in global stock markets on Monday.
The Dow Jones industrial average and the S&P 500 both posted fresh record closing highs, while the Nasdaq Composite broke 5,000 for the first time in 15 years.
However, profit-taking capped dollar's upside somewhat and the pair retreated due to the retreat in Nikkei-225 index (currently dropped by 70 points to 18757).
Offers are now tipped at 120.20-30 and more at 120.50.
On the downside, bids are located at 119.80 adn more at 119.60-50 with stops seen below 119.50.
Yesterday the greenback maintained a firm undertone after extending last Friday's rise to 119.95 in Tokyo morning(Monday) due to dlr's broad-based strength n the continued rise in Nikkei-225 index which rose by 31 points to 18829. Bids was located at 119.65-60 n more at 119.50. On the upside, some offers were tipped at 119.95/00 with stops seen above 120.00 n 120.05, however, selling interest was noted at 120.30-40.
On Friday, BOJ Deputy Governor Hiroshi Nakaso said the Bank of Japan's commitment to achieving its 2% price target is "unshakable," and Japan now has a good chance of witnessing a "true dawn" with the economy emerging from the hit from last year's consumption tax hike and now back on a sustained growth path.
Data to be released on Tuesday:
Australia building approvals, RBA rate decision, Swiss GDP, Germany retail sales, UK construction PMI, EU producer prices, Canada GDP, producer prices, U.S. redbook retail sales and ISM New York index.
AceTraderFx Mar 3: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views (EUR/USD)
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
03 Mar 201509:38GMT
EUR/USD- ...... Despite hitting an intra-day high of 1.1212 after better-than-expected German retails sales at European open, euro came under pressure as st specs sold the single currency broadly as stops below yesterday's 1.1160 are not in focus.
There is market chatter of large stops building below January's 11-year bottom at 1.1098, so market is keen to test euro's downside.
Having said that,several layers of bids are reported at 1.1150-30 area and more above 1.1100, so aforesaid January's trough may not be easily reached in the absence of bearish news.
On the upside, offers are tipped at 1.1190/00 and more above with stops above 1.1245.
This morning although the single currency staged a brief rebound to 1.1245 on Monday, renewed selling there due to dollar's broad-based strength knocked the pair lower.
On the data front, Germany will release its retail sales data at 07:00GMT whilst eurozone will release its producer prices at 10:00GMT. ECB policymakers meet in Cyprus on Wednesday and Thursday.
The ECB is expected to lay out more details of the program at a news conference on Thursday.
AceTraderFx Mar 4: Intra-Day News and Views (USD/JPY) & data to be released today
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
04 Mar 201502:21GMT
USD/JPY- ...... The greenback tumbled from yesterday's Asian high at 120.27 to as low as 119.38 due to active cross buying in jpy together with the retreat in Nikkei-225 futures following the decline in U.S. Dow Jones index which closed down 85 points to 18203.
Offers are now tipped below NY res at 119.79 with stop building up above 119.91.
On the downside, bids are located at 119.50-40 and more at 119.30.
Comments from BOJ's Miyao, quote:
very likely to achieve 2% price stability target;
precise timing of reaching 2% inflation may be sooner or later than intended; improvements in output gap, labour demand suggest upward pressure on prices to increase;
a central bank could lose policy flexibility if it provides overly specific information about time spans and economic indicators.
Yesterday, although the greenback found renewed buying at 119.57 ahead of European open and rebounded to 119.91 in European morning, renewed selling emerged and price tumbled to session low at 119.39 on dlr's broad-based weakness before staging a brief recovery.
Data to be released on Wednesday:
Australia GDP, China HSBC services PMI, Italy services PMI, France services PMI, Germany services PMI, EU services PMI, retail sales, UK services PMI, Canada BoC rate decision, U.S. ADP employment and Fed beige book.