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AceTraderFx Mar 10: Daily Market Outlook on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK
Update Time: 10 Mar 2015 01:45 GMT
EUR/USD - 1.0832
Despite euro's brief rebound from Monday's fresh 11-1/2 year low at 1.0823 to 1.0907 in Europe on short-covering, as renewed selling pressured price again, suggesting recent downtrend would resume after minor consolidation, yield re-test of said support, below would extend weakness towards projected downside target at 1.0752 later.
On the upside, only a breach of 1.0907 would signal temporary low is made and bring stronger rebound to 1.0929 and 1.0988.
AceTraderFx Mar 10: Daily Technical Outlook & Trading Ideals USD/JPY
DAILY USD/JPY TECHNICAL OUTLOOK
Last Update At 09 Mar 2015 23:44GMT
Trend Daily Chart
Sideways
Daily Indicators
Rising
21 HR EMA
121.08
55 HR EMA
120.74
Trend Hourly Chart
Up
Hourly Indicators
Bearish divergences
13 HR RSI
69
14 HR DMI
+ve
Daily Analysis
Resumption of upmove
Resistance
122.92 - 2.618 ext. of 118.20-119.84 fm 118.63
122.30 - 2.236 ext. of 118.20-119.84 fm 118.63
121.85 - Jan 08 2014 7-1/2 year peak
Support
120.61 - Mon's low
120.48 - Feb 11 high (now sup)
119.90 - Last Fri's low
. USD/JPY- 121.55... Despite initial brief retreat to 120.61 Mon at Asian open, the greenback rebounded to 121.13 in Asian morning b4 retreating again to 120.66 in Europe. However, renewed yen-selling in Europe pushed the pair higher n dlr later climbed to session high of 121.41 in New York b4 easing.
. On the bigger picture, Fri's rally abv indicated 'pivotal' daily res at 120.83 (triangle b-leg top) to 121.29 signals an 'upside break' of the 3-month long triangle consolidation has taken place n as long as 119.90 holds, long-term uptrend fm 2011 record low at 75.32 wud resume, abv 121.85 anytime wud extend aforesaid move to 123.89 n possibly twd 125.86 later this month, being 50% n 61.8% projections respectively of the intermediate rise fm 105.20-121.85 measured fm 115.57. Having said that, as daily technical indicators wud display 'bearish divergences' on such move, strg gain abv there is unlikely to be seen n risk wud increase for a much-needed correction later.
. Today, dlr has risen abv Mon's 121.41 high to 121.61 ahead of Asian open, suggesting re-test of 2014 major peak at 121.85 wud be forthcoming soon, abv wud extend to 122.20/30 later n we're holding a long position for 121.70 1st.
AceTraderFx Mar 11: Intra-Day News and Views (EUR/USD) & data to be released today
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
11 Mar 2015 01:59GMT
EUR/USD - ..... Euro fell in NY session on Tuesday and hit a fresh near 12-year low of 1.0669 in Australia earlier this morning as lingering market worry on Greece continued to pressure the single currency.
Reuters reported a Greek exit from the euro zone would set a dangerous precedent by showing that the single currency is not irreversible and should be avoided, Italian Economy Minister Pier Carlo Padoan said on Tuesday.
"Today we are facing a major risk of considering the possibility of (a country) not being a member of the monetary union anymore," he told students at a university, adding, "You know what I have in mind".
He said that if the exit option is there for one member, "that option can be extended to other members. Most of all, the monetary union is not irreversible," he said, speaking in English.
Padoan added: "I personally think Greece will not exit the euro. I will do all I can to keep Greece inside the European monetary union, however, I cannot predict the future".
Yesterday on the European morning, Euro pares intra-day loss after tanking from 1.0856 (Aust.) to a 12-year low of 1.0785 in Asian morning after tripping some stops below 1.0800.
However, the release of stronger-than-expected French industrial production (Jan reading came in at 0.4% vs forecast of -0.3%) prompted short-covering, the pair briefly rebounded to 1.0824 but only to retreat soon after the bounce, suggesting traders were still keen to sell euro on intra-day recovery as market woe on Greek debt continues to weigh on the euro.
Data to be released on Wednesday:
Australia Westpac consumer confidence, Japan CGPI, machinery orders, China industrial output, retail sales, France current account, UK industrial output, manufacturing output and U.S. Federal budget.
AceTraderFx Mar 11: Daily Recommendations on Majors - USD/JPY
DAILY OUTLOOK ON USD/JPY - 121.30
Update Time: 11 Mar 2015 07:30 GMT
Despite dlr's brief break of 2014 peak at 121.85 to a near 8-year peak of 122.03 in Asia yesterday, subsequent stronger-than-expected cross-inspired fall suggests a temp. top is in place and 'choppy' trading is in store in next 1-2 days before another rise.
Intra-day bounce from 120.86 signals 1st leg of correction over, buy for 121.85. Below 120.61, 120.30.
AceTraderFx Mar 11: Daily Technical Outlook & Trading Ideals EUR/USD
DAILY EUR/USD TECHNICAL OUTLOOK
Last Update At 11 Mar 2015 01:01GMT
Trend Daily Chart
Down
Daily Indicators
Bullish convergences
21 HR EMA
1.0733
55 HR EMA
1.0803
Trend Hourly Chart
Down
Hourly Indicators
Bullish convergences
13 HR RSI
36
14 HR DMI
-ve
Daily Analysis
Consolidation b4 one more fall
Resistance
1.0823 - Y'day's low (now res)
1.0793 - Y'day's NY res
1.0723 - Y'day's European morning low (now res)
Support
1.0669 - Intra-day's near 12-year trough (AUS)
1.0624 - 61.8% proj. of 1.2570-1.1098 fm 1.1534
1.0608 - 2.618 ext. of 1.1388-1.1155 fm 1.1218
. EUR/USD- 1.0698... The single currency remained under pressure in Asia on Tue n continue to ratchet lower in Asia n Europe. Price fell to 1.0723 at NY open on cross-selling in eur/gbp together with dlr's broad-based strength, despite a brief bounce to 1.0793, euro fell to 1.0693, then 1.0669 in Australia.
. Let's look at the bigger picture 1st, y'day's resumption of LT downtrend fm 2008 record high at 1.6040 to a fresh near 12-year trough at 1.0669 suggests downside bias remains for marginal weakness twd 1.0624 after consolidation, this is 61.8% projection of intermediate fall fm 1.2570-1.1098 measured fm 1.1534. Having said that, as hourly indicators wud display prominent 'bullish convergences' on such decline, steep fall below there is unlikely to be seen n reckon 1.0590/00 shud hold n yield a much-needed correction later. On the upside, only abv 1.0823 (prev. sup, now res) wud indicate a temporary low has been made n risk stronger retracement twd 1.0863.
. Today, expect initial consolidation b4 prospect of one more fall, so selling on intra-day recovery is favoured n only a break of NY high at 1.0793
wud be 1st signal temporary low is made, risks retracement twd 1.0823.
AceTraderFx Mar 12: Intra-Day News and Views (USD/JPY) & data to be released today
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
12 Mar 2015 01:42GMT
USD/JPY - ...... Reuters reported earlier big Japanese manufacturers grew less optimistic in January-March and they expect business conditions to worsen in the following quarter, a government survey showed on Thursday, underscoring the economy's fragile recovery from recession.
The business survey index (BSI) of sentiment at large manufacturers stood at plus 2.4 in January-March, compared with plus 8.1 in the prior 3 months, according to the joint survey by the Ministry of Finance and the Cabinet Office.
The BSI measures the percentage of firms that expect the business environment to improve from the previous quarter minus the percentage that expect it to worsen.
Positive figures mean optimists outnumber pessimists.
Japanese firms plan to raise capital spending by 5.1% in the current business year to March 2015, the survey also showed, more than the 4.9% seen in the previous poll.
Capital spending is expected to fall 3.9% in the next fiscal year.
Thursdaywill see the release of New Zealand RBNZ rate decision, Australia employment, Japan consumer confidence, Germany CPI, HICP, France CPI, EU industrial production, UK trade balance, U.S. export prices, import prices, jobless claims, retail sales, business inventories and Canada capacity utilisation.
AceTraderFx Mar 12: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/US
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK EUR/USD - 1.0550
Update Time: 12 Mar 2015 00:54 GMT
Euro's fall to a fresh near 12-year bottom of 1.0561 yesterday suggests outlook remains mildly bearish for recent downtrend to yield marginal weakness towards 1.0500 after consolidation, however, 'loss of downward momentum' has increased risk of a correction later today or tomorrow.
On the upside, only a daily close above 1.0660/70 would indicate temporary low is in place, then euro is likely to head to 1.0700/10 and possibly towards 1.0750/60 before prospect of another sell off.
AceTraderFx Mar 13: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK EUR/USD - 1.0615
Update Time: 13 Mar 2015 00:56 GMT
Despite euro's marginal weakness to a fresh 12-year trough at 1.0494 in Asia on Thursday, subsequent strong rebound to 1.0643 in European morning on active short-covering and then a brief jump to 1.0684 on release of weak U.S. retail sales signals mid-term downtrend has made a temporary low there and a long-overdue correction towards 1.0700 level is envisaged.
On the downside, only a daily close below 1.0556 (previous resistance, now support) would indicate above mentioned recovery is over instead and yield re-test of 1.0494, break, 1.0430/40.
AceTraderFx Mar 13: Intra-Day News and Views (USD/JPY) & data to be released today
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
13 Mar 2015 02:32GMT
USD/JPY- ...... Although dlr briefly tumbled below Wed's low at 120.86 to 120.65 in NY yesterday after reports from U.S. Commerce Dep't showed an unexpected drop in retail sales in Feb (actual ceme in at -0.6% vs street forecast of 0.3%), renewed buying interest quickly emerged n lifted price to 121.42, then 121.47 in Tokyo morning today.
As intra-day rally rally in the Nikkei (N225 has risen abv the 19000 mark since 2000) has boosted risk appetite n other major Asian stock markets, buying dlr on dips ahead of European open is recommended, however, a move back abv y'day's high at 121.67 is needed to retain bullishness for gain twd of Tue's fresh near 8-year peak at 122.03.
At present, bids are noted at 121.20-10 n then 121.00 with mixture of bids n stops located at 120.85/80 n just below 120.65. On the upside, offers fm various accounts are placed at 121.55-65 n further out at 121.80-90.
Yesterday BoJ policymakers were sending a concerted signal to investors that they see no need to expand their already-massive monetary stimulus for a second time in response to a slowdown in inflation driven by the fall in oil prices.
6 of the BOJ's 9 board members, including Governor Haruhiko Kuroda, went public in the past 2 weeks to push the message that, while they expected inflation to grind to a halt or even fall in coming months, they remained hopeful that a pick-up in consumption will rekindle consumer prices down the line.
"Falling prices will push up real interest rates, shattering the transmission channels of the BOJ's stimulus programme needed to boost private consumption and capital expenditure."
Some BOJ officials admitted that they had only themselves to blame. The central bank justified its surprise easing in October as aimed at preventing oil price falls, and a subsequent slowdown in prices, from hurting inflation expectations.
Friday will see the release of Japan capacity utilisation, industrial output, Italy CPI and Canada employment data.
AceTraderFx Mar 13: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views (EUR/USD)
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
13 Mar 2015 09:09GMT
EUR/USD- ..... Greece continues to take centre stage today. Reuters reported European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker said on Friday as he met the Greek PM in Brussels that progress on a deal between Athens and its creditors had been insufficient and said he would make "proposals" to overcome the differences.
Noting that any deal depended on other euro zone governments, Juncker said: "I'm not satisfied with the developments in recent weeks. I don't think we have made sufficient progress."
Addressing reporters with premier Alexis Tsipras, who said he was "optimistic", Juncker added: "I'm totally excluding a failure. I don't want a failure. I would like Europeans to go together. This is not a time for division. This is the time for coming together."
With increasing talk among other euro zone states that Greece, under Tsipras' radical left government, could have to quit the currency bloc, the prime minister stressed he wanted a common solution. Juncker, the EU's chief executive, said Tsipras was "on a pro-European track".
German Feburary Wholesale Prices +0.5% M/M and -2.1% Y/Y vs prev. readings of -0.4% and 2.6% respectively.