Intraday trading signal - page 128
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AceTraderFx Nov 5: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views (GBP/USD)
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
05 Nov 2014
GBP/USD -...... Cable moved in a choppy fashion below Monday's high of 1.6027 on Tuesday. Although price found renewed buying at 1.5965 at Asian open n ratcheted higher in Europe, selling interest at 1.6015/20 checked intra-day gain at 1.6016 at NY open and cable later tanked to 1.5982 in NY afternoon due to cross-selling vs euro before staging another bounce to 1.6012 in Asia on Wednesday.
Although the early release of weak U.K. shop price index suggests range trading with mild downside bias wud be seen in Asia n selling cable on recovery is recommended, as investors are awaiting the release of U.K. service PMI in European morning (09:30GMT) for further indication of how the U.K.'s main economic sector is performing when Christmas is approaching, sharp fall is unlikely ahead of European open.
Economists are expecting the reading to soften to 58.5 in Oct compare to 58.7 in September.
At present, offers are noted at 1.6010-20 n then 1.6030/35 with stops emerging above 1.6050, whilst bids are placed at 1.5985/80 and around 1.5965 with stops placed just below 1.5950.
News in early Wednesday, British shops matched a record decline in the price cuts in October and food prices looked at risk of falling into deflation, a survey fm the British Retail Consortium showed on Wednesday.
BRC said October retail prices were 1.9 percent lower than a year ago, matching July's record decline and weaker than a 1.8 percent fall in September.
Prices for food products edged up just 0.1 percent, the smallest rise since the survey began almost eight years ago, compared with a 0.3 percent increase in September.
There was deep and widespread discounting across grocery stores.
Britain's big supermarkets have fought an escalating price war, spurred by discounters like Aldi and Lidl which have taken a growing market share from traditional rival grocers.
Overall, consumer price inflation ran at 1.2 percent in September, well below the Bank of England's 2 percent target.
Wages are growing even more slowly - something the BoE has cited as a reason to keep interest rates on hold.
AceTraderFx Nov 5: Daily Technical Outlook & Trading Ideals on GBP/USD
DAILY GBP/USD TECHNICAL OUTLOOK
Last Update At 05 Nov 2014 03:06GMT
Trend Daily Chart
Sideways
Daily Indicators
Bullish convergences
21 HR EMA
1.5998
55 HR EMA
1.5999
Trend Hourly Chart
Sideways
Hourly Indicators
Neutral
13 HR RSI
54
14 HR DMI
+ve
Daily Analysis
Consolidation with downside bias
Resistance
1.6103 - Hourly sup (now res)
1.6055 - 50% r of 1.6183-1.5926
1.6038 - Last Thur's high
Support
1.5963 - Reaction low fm 1.6027 (Mon)
1.5926 - Mon's low
1.5875 - Oct 15 low
. GBP/USD- 1.6001...The British pound found renewed buying at 1.5965 at Asian open Tue n continued to trade with a firm undertone in Asia. Price gained to 1.6008 in early European morning b4 retreating to 1.5978. Later, cable rose to session high of 1.6016 at NY open b4 retreating on cross-selling vs euro.
. Looking at the daily picture, although price has staged a recovery after Mon's sharp retreat to 1.5926 n further choppy consolidation is envisaged for 1-2 days, as aforesaid move signals early correction fm 2014 trough at 1.5875 has indeed ended earlier at 1.6186 in Oct, reckon last Thur's high at 1.6038 wud cap upside n bring another fall twd said sup. Below ther wud signal the MT downtrend fm Jul's near 6-year peak at 1.7192 has possibly resumed n yield a re-test of 1.5875 later next week. On the upside, only abv 1.6055 (50% r of 1.6183-1.5926) wud indicate the pullback fm 1.6186 has ended instead n risk stronger gain twd 1.6103 (prev. sup, now res).
. Today, we are looking to sell cable on recovery to 1.6020 for weakness twd 1.5935 n only abv res 1.6038 wud prolong choppy trading n risk marginal gain but res at 1.6055 shud remain intact today n yield retreat.
AceTraderFx Nov 10: Intra-Day News and Views (USD/JPY) & data to be released today
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
10 Nov 2014 01:05GMT
USD/JPY - 114.38.. Dlr opened in NZ around where it left off in NY Friday (around 114.62), however, renewed usd's broad-based weakness following a weak closing Friday pressured price in NZ/AUS, the pair fell 1-tick below Friday's 114.26 low at Tokyo open but lack of follow-through selling quickly lifted price.
Despite the Dow & S&P 500 indices touching record closing highs for the 3rd day in a row, intra-day weakness in the Nikkei (currently down 121 points at 16759) as well as falling U.S. treasury yields suggests dlr may well have formed a temporary high at Friday's fresh 7-year peak at 115.62.
Offers are tipped at 114.60/65 n more above with stops touted above 115.00.
On the downside, initial bids are noted at 114.25-20 and more below at 114.10-00 with stops reported below there, suggesting consolidation with downside bias is in store.
Reuters reported citing source from the Japan's Yomiuri newspaper Japan's PM Shinzo Abe is considering dissolving the lower house of parliament and calling a snap election if he decides to delay a plan to raise the sales tax next year.
If Abe does dissolve the lower house, an election could be held on Dec. 14 or Dec. 21, the Yomiuri reported on Sunday citing several government and ruling party sources.
Abe has also told members of his party's coalition partner of this plan, the Yomiuri said. In a TV interview on Fri, Abe said he was not thinking of calling an early election, but then he hedged his bets by saying this is something a prime minister always has to say.
Abe has to decide by year's end whether to go through with a plan to raise the sales tax to 10 percent from 8 percent in October 2015.
Abe could delay this plan by a year and a half if 3rd quarter GDP, which is due on Nov. 17, struggles to accelerate, the Yomiuri said.
If Abe does delay the tax hike he would call an election to ask the public to judge his economic policies, the Yomiuri said.
Data to be released this week:
Australia housing finance, China CPI, PPI, Italy industrial output, EU sentix index and Canada housing starts on Monday.
Japan trade balance, current account, tertiary industry index, Australia home price index, NAB business confidence, France market holiday, Canada market holiday and U.S. market holiday on Tuesday.
Australia Wage price index, UK average earnings, claimant count, ILO unemployment, BoE inflation report, EU industrial production, U.S. redbook retail sales, wholesale inventories and wholesale sales on Wednesday.
Japan CGPI, machinery orders, industrial output, capacity utilization, China industrial output, retail sales, Germany CPI, HICP, Swiss PPI, Italy CPI, Canada housing price index, U.S. jobless claims and Federal budget on Thursday.
France GDP, Germany GDP, Italy GDP, UK construction output, EU GDP, CPI, U.S. retail sales, export prices, import prices, business inventories, U. of Michigan sentiment and Canada manufacturing sales on Friday.
AceTraderFx Nov 10: Weekly Technical Outlook & Trading Ideals on EUR/USD
WEEKLY EUR/USD TECHNICAL OUTLOOK
Last Update At 09 Nov 2014 23:57GMT
Trend Daily Chart
Down
Daily Indicators
Bullish convergences
21 HR EMA
1.2432
55 HR EMA
1.2441
Trend Hourly Chart
Sideways
Hourly Indicators
Rising
13 HR RSI
62
14 HR DMI
+ve
Daily Analysis
Initial rise b4 retreat
Resistance
1.2577 - Last Tue's high
1.2533 - Last Thur's high
1.2495 - Last Thur's European morning low
Support
1.2408 - Lst Fri's Euroepan morning high
1.2357 - Last Fri's 26-month low
1.2311 - 61.8% proj. of 1.3433-1.2500 fm 1.2888
. EUR/USD - 1.2460 ... The single currency continued its recent downtrend n hit a 2-year low at 1.2439 at the start of last week, despite staging a short-covering rebound to 1.2577 Tue, renewed selling emerged n knocked price to 1.2374 after ECB Draghi's dovish comments Thur, then 1.2357 on Fri b4 rebounding.
. Looking at bigger picture 1st, despite euro's resumption of the MT fall fm May's 2-1/2 year peak at 1.3995 to a fresh 2-year bottom at 1.2357,as aforesaid low was also accompanied by prominent bullish convergences on the hourly & daily oscillators n subsequent bounce to 1.2470 had pushed the hourly macd abv the zero line, suggesting consolidation with initial upside bias wud be seen. However, a daily close abv 1.2577 is needed to 'violate' recent series of lower highs n lower lows n yield stronger retracement twd next upside obj. at 1.2771 later this month. On the downside, below 1.2357 wud yield weakness to 1.2311 (61.8% proj. of 1.3433-1.2500 measured fm 1.2888) but 1.2146 shud hold fm here.
. Today, euro's gain to 1.2487 in NZ suggests 1-2 days of choppy sideways trading is in store, in view of abv analysis, one can trade the pair on both sides of the market as only below 1.2378 wud bring re-test of 1.2357.
AceTraderFx Nov 11: Intra-Day News and Views (USD/JPY) & data to be released today
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
11 Nov 2014 02:08GMT
USD/JPY - ..... Dlr pares intra-day gain after an initial brief rise to 115.01 but offers at 115.00/10 capped upside and pushed price back down to 113.64.
Although dlr showed muted reaction to a sharply higher trade surplus (September surplus was 963 bln yen vs forecast of 534 bln, this represents a near 62% jump vs the same period in 2013) as yesterday's another record closings in the Dow & S&P 500 boosted risk sentiment, prompting another round of yen selling but 115.00 res seems to a tough nut to crack.
Looks like range trading is in store n teh strong bounce from yesterday's 113.86 low in Europe suggests consolidation with upside bias remains. Offers are reported at 115.00/10 with stops above there, more selling interest is noted below Friday's 7-year peak at 115.62.
On the downside, bids are noted at 114.60 and more at 114.45/40 and more below with stops touted below 113.80.
Earlier Japanese PM Shinzo Abe's approval rating fell in a public opinion poll published on Mon amid speculation the gov't is considering calling a snap election.
National broadcaster NHK surveyed 1,527 people and found support for Abe's gov't had fallen 8 percentage points from last month to 44%, the lowest since Abe's gov't began 2 years ago.
Of those surveyed, 38% said they disapproved of Abe, up 4 percentage points from last month.
Abe's popularity has been sliding since 2 members of his cabinet resigned last month over political scandals. Abe also has to decide before the end of the year whether to raise the sales tax next year and some media are reporting that he could delay this plan and call an election.
Tuesday will see the release of Japan trade balance, current account, tertiary industry index, Australia home price index, NAB business confidence. France, Canada and U.S. markets will be closed on Tuesday due to holiday.
AceTraderFx Nov 11: Daily Technical Outlook & Trading Ideals on USD/CHF
DAILY USD/CHF TECHNICAL OUTLOOK
Last Update At 11 Nov 2014 00:34GMT
Trend Daily Chart
Up
Daily Indicators
Bearish divergences
21 HR EMA
0.9668
55 HR EMA
0.967
Trend Hourly Chart
Sideways
Hourly Indicators
Rising
13 HR RSI
60
14 HR DMI
+ve
Daily Analysis
Consolidation with upside bias
Resistance
0.9772 - 61.8% proj. of 0.9024-0.9690 fm 0.9360
0.9742 - Last Fri's fresh 1-year peak
0.9705 - Last Fri's Euroepan morning low
Support
0.9617 - Y'day's low
0.960 - Last Thur's low
0.9580 - Last week's low (Tue)
. USD/CHF - 0.9680... Although the greenback opened lower to 0.9632 in NZ on Mon, price staged a recovery to 0.9659 at Asian open, renewed selling there knocked price to session low at 0.9617 in European morning. However, the pair rebounded strongly to 0.9684 in NY session due to broad-based strength in usd.
. Let's look at the hourly n daily charts, y'day's rebound fm 0.9617 suggests the pullback fm last Fri's fresh 1-year peak at 0.9742 has ended there n consolidation with initial upside bias remains, abv 0.9705/10 wud signal pull back is over n bring gain twd 0.9742, break there wud extend the 3-legged up move fm Mar's 2-1/2 year trough at 0.8698 twd projected target at 0.9772 (being 61.8% projection of 0.9024-0.9690 fm 0.9360). However, as hourly indicators wud display 'prominent' bearish divergences on such move, strg rise abv there is not envisaged n recon 0.9800/10 wud hold fm here n bring correction.
. Today, in view of abv analysis, we're standing aside initially n wud buy dlr on dips once 0.9705/10 res is penetrated. On the downside, we will sell dlr on recovery is price drops back below 0.9632 n such move wud indicate rebound is over, the weakness to 0.8580 wud follow, break 0.9455/60.
AceTraderFx Nov 12: Intra-Day News and Views (NZD/USD) & data to be released today
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
12 Nov 2014
NZD/USD - ...... Statement from RBNZ, quote:
not appropriate to ease LVR lending limits;
risk of house inflation pick-up from strong immigration;
NZ dlr above sustainable, justified level;
NZ dlr may fall further on tighter u.s. policy, China slowdown;
dairy payout fall may see more loan defaults;
further rises in short-term rates may be needed in future years;
says risk of sharp china slowdown will hurt NZ, AU economies.
will likely ease LVR limits, rather than removing them;
LVR limits still meant to be temporary, not permanent;
NZ dlr still unjustified, unsustainable;
exchange rate still has 'further to go';
extent of further NZ dlr fall may depend on U.S. dlr.
pleased that NZ dlr has come down 12 pct vs U.S. dlr;
neutral rates still seen around 4.5 pct;
interest rates still at a low level, still expansionary.
Wednesday will sell the release of Australia Wage price index, UK average earnings, claimant count, ILO unemployment, BoE inflation report, EU industrial production, U.S. redbook retail sales, wholesale inventories and wholesale sales.
AceTraderFx Nov 12: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views (GBP/USD)
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views (GBP/USD)
12 Nov 2014 08:25GMT
GBP/USD - ....... Cable rebounded in tandem with euro after early retreat to 1.5904/05 in Asia and price rose to 1.5940 in early Europe before easing.
Investors remain on the sideline ahead of the release of a slew of jobs reports from UK and important UK inflation report at 09:30GMT and 10:30GMT respectively.
Stops located just above yesterday's high of 1.5945 are now in focus but more selling interest from various accounts is seen in the region of 1.5970-90.
On the downside, bids are placed at 1.5915/10 and then 1.5900 with stops emerging below 1.5880.
This morning the British pound tracked intra-day movements in the euro closely again on Tuesday.
Despite intra-day's rally from Asian low at 1.5835 to as high as 1.5945 in thin NY afternoon, price retreated to 1.5915 in Australian morning n then 1.5905 after Asian open on renewed broad-based strength in greenback n profit-taking ahead of the release of UK jobs reports and BoE's quarterly inflation report in European morning.
Looks like choppy consolidation below yesterday's high of 1.5945 would be seen in Asia as investors remain cautious ahead of the BoE's inflation report after The Sun Times report earlier the BoE is expected to make a downward revision to its growth forecasts n signal that interest rates will rise later than expected (as mentioned in our yesterday's MMN).
Before the inflation report, UK will release average earnings, jobless claims change n ILO unemployment rate, economists estimate the data will show signs of improvement in the UK's job market.
AceTraderFx Nov 12: Daily Technical Outlook & Trading Ideals on GBP/USD
DAILY GBP/USD TECHNICAL OUTLOOK
Last Update At 12 Nov 2014 00:48GMT
Trend Daily Chart
Down
Daily Indicators
Bullish convergences
21 HR EMA
1.5890
55 HR EMA
1.5880
Trend Hourly Chart
Near term up
Hourly Indicators
Rising
13 HR RSI
64
14 HR DMI
+ve
Daily Analysis
Consolidation with initial upsdie bias
Resistance
1.6004 - Nov 8 high
1.5962 - 100% proj. of 1.5790-1.5918 fm 1.5835
1.5945 - Y'day's high
Support
1.5877 - Y'day's hourly res, now sup
1.5835 - Y'day's low
1.5790 - Last Fri's 1-year low
. GBP/USD- 1.5912... The British pound tracked intra-day movements in the euro closely again on Tue. Despite initial weakness to 1.5836 in subdued European trading, price ratcheted higher on short-covering n the pair later jumped to as high as 1.5945 in thin NY afternoon b4 easing ahead of Asian open today.
. Y'day's strg rebound fm 1.5835 to as high as 1.5945 suggests further volatile consolidation abv last Fri's 1-year low of 1.5790 wud continue with upside bias n abv 1.5945 wud bring further gain to 1.5987 (50% r of 1.6183-1.57 90), however, only a daily close abv previous strg res at 1.6023/27 wud confirm MT downtrend fm 2014 peak at 1.7192 (Jul) has made a temporary low, then stronger gain to 1.6071 wud be seen, this is a 'minimum' 38.2% r of the MT intermediate fall fm 1.6525, however, reckon 1.6158 (50% r) shud cap upside. On the downside, failure to penetrate 1.5945 n subsequent break of 1.5835 wud signal aforesaid MT downtrend has resumed n weakness to 1.5770 wud follow, however, 'bullish convergences' on hourly & daily indicators shud keep price abv 1.5710.
. Today, in view of abv analysis, buying cable on dips is favoured but pay attention to release of official U.K. data as well as BoE Inflation Report.
The shared information about the trading was informative. When we know the basic information about the trading and every time we need to update this information with the latest and then we have more chance to win success.