Intraday trading signal - page 129
You are missing trading opportunities:
- Free trading apps
- Over 8,000 signals for copying
- Economic news for exploring financial markets
Registration
Log in
You agree to website policy and terms of use
If you do not have an account, please register
AceTraderFx Nov 13: Intra-Day News and Views (USD/JPY) & data to be released today
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
13 Nov 2014 02:18GMT
USD/JPY - ...... After taking centre stage by swinging wildly in Asia, European & NY sessions on Wednesday, the greenback has moved narrowly in relatively subdued Tokyo morning trading as the absence of market-moving comments by Japanese official(s) has kept price moving sideways.
Dlr showed muted reaction to early release of Japan's machinery orders which showed an unexpected rise of 2.9% in September vs forecast of a drop of 1.9%. However, for those who like to trade on comments/news, keep an eye on breaking news from Reuters/Bloomberg when BoJ Governor Kuroda appears before the Japanese parliament at 04:40GMT.
Despite yesterday's brief drop to 114.85 (Reuters) in NY morning, subsequent strong bounce in NY afternoon on renewed dlr's broad-based strength suggests consolidation with mild upside bias is in store, however, as the Nikkei is trading well below yesterday's fresh 7-year peak at 17443 (currently at 17225), range trading should continue.
Offers are noted at 115.70/75 n more above with stops reported above 116.10. Initial bids are noted at 115.40-30 n more below with stops building below 114.80.
Japan Chief Gov't spokesman: decline to comment on some views that next sales tax hike should be delayed by a year and a half. To hike or not to hike (sales tax), Japanese officials have kept the market guessing.
The WSJ reported Japan's PM Shinzo Abe will likely decide next week to postpone an unpopular sales-tax increase, judging that the country's economy is too weak to withstand the burden, n call a general election to seek public support for his economic program, a top Abe administration official said on Wednesday.
Abe's aides are preparing for an election campaign next month that will stress growth over fiscal austerity, weighing the likelihood that data due next Mon will show growth in the Jul-to-Sep quarter was below 2% on an annualized basis, the gov't official said. "We want to seek a mandate to push ahead with Abenomics, with the growth policy," said the official, adding that any election would likely come on Dec. 14 or Dec. 21.
Abe has said he would decide on the sales-tax increase in Dec after considering Jul-to-Sep GDP figures, suggesting he would wait until a revision to the GDP data is released Dec. 8. On Tue, he reiterated that view n said he hasn't "decided on the timing" of an election.
The official said the PM's aides were preparing an election platform that, in addition to delaying the sales-tax rise, would call for a greater cut in corporate taxes than Abe has pledged so far.
Amamiya says 'BoJ's current QQE programme is open-ended, not deadline set; BoJ won't hold off on taking steps to hit its price target just because of worries over risks of hurting its balance sheet;
see no need to worry about risk of triggering hyper-inflation with BoJ's policy, which aimed at achieving 2 pct inflation.'
Thursdaywill see the release of Japan CGPI, machinery orders, industrial output, capacity utilization, China industrial output, retail sales, Germany CPI, HICP, Swiss PPI, Italy CPI, Canada housing price index, U.S. jobless claims and Federal budget.
AceTraderFx Nov 13: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views (GBP/USD)
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
13 Nov 2014 08:03GMT
GBP/USD - ...... Cable remains under pressure in European morning after yesterday's dovish BoE inflation report and hovers just above Aust.'s fresh 14-month low at 1.5760.
Fresh offers are noted at 1.5775/80 and around 1.5790 with stops emerging above 1.5800, however, more selling interest from various accounts is placed in the region of 1.5820-40.
On the downside, bids from profit-taking are touted at 1.5750-40 and around 1.5720 with buying interest from real accounts located further out at 1.5700.
This morning Cable tumbled on Wednesday after the BoE downgraded U.K. inflation forecasts significantly in its quarterly Inflation Report n dampened market's hopes of rate hike in early 2015.
BoE said in the report that inflation rate in U.K. may fall below 1.0% at sometime within the next 6-months and growth prospects are also somewhat lower to 2.9% in 2015. The British pound fell sharply after the report, dropping fm intra-day high of 1.5940 to 1.5776 in NY afternoon n then further to a fresh 14-month trough at 1.5760 in Australia earlier this morning before stabilising.
Earlier, as cable remained under pressure with no U.K. eco. release are due, selling the pound on recovery is the way to go. buying interest from real accounts located at 1.5700.
AceTraderFx Nov 13: Daily Technical Outlook & Trading Ideals on USD/JPY
DAILY USD/JPY TECHNICAL OUTLOOK
Last Update At 13 Nov 2014 00:29GMT
Trend Daily Chart
Up
Daily Indicators
Rising
21 HR EMA
115.47
55 HR EMA
115.33
Trend Hourly Chart
Sideways
Hourly Indicators
Neutral
13 HR RSI
51
14 HR DMI
-ve
Daily Analysis
Consolidation with upside bias
Resistance
117.09 - Equality proj. of 113.86-116.10 fm 114.85
116.42 - 61.8% proj. of 113.86-116.10 fm 114.85
116.10 - Tue's fresh 7-year high
Support
114.85 - Y'day's low
114.64 - Y'day's low
114.26 - Last Fri's low
. USD/JPY - 115.28 ...The greenback continued to take centre stage in Asia n swung wildly in Wed's session. Despite extending rebound fm Tue's 115.04 low to as high as 116.01 in Aust., price briefly dropped to 115.25 b4 bouncing back to 115.88 but only to ratchet lower to 114.85 in NY. Price later rose to 115.74.
. Looking at the hourly n daily charts, despite dlr's erratic fall fm Tue's fresh 7-year peak at 116.10 to 114.85 y'day, subsequent strg bounce in later NY trade suggests choppy consolidation with upside bias remains, however, abv 116.10 needed to extend the LT uptrend fm 2011 record low at 75.32 twd 116.42, this is 61.8% proj. of the near term rise 113.86-116.10 measured fm 115.04. Having said that, as hourly indicators' readings wud display prominent 'bearish divergences' on such move, upside shud falter well below 117.00 n risk has increased for a much-needed correction to occur. Failure to penetrate 115.88 (y'day's high in Tokyo) n a drop below 115.00/04 suggests choppy trading below 116.10 top wud continue, then stronger retracement to 114.64, n later 114.26 wud be seen.
. Today, in view of nr term upside risk, we have exited previous short position with a small loss n may sell dlr on recovery if price drops below 115.00.
AceTraderFx Nov 14: Intra-Day News and Views (USD/JPY) & data to be released today
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
14 Nov 2014 01:32GMT
USD/JPY - ...... The pair continues to take centre stage in hectic Tokyo trading as comments by Japan's ECONMIN Amari (see early MMN) led to renewed broad-based selling in the yen, intra-day gain to fresh 7-year highs in the Nikkei (N255 index rose to 17520) boosted risk sentiment and pushed price to a fresh 7-year peak at 116.20 after tripping stops above 115.90, then 116.10.
However, intra-day retreat in the Nikkei has prompted liquidation in speculative longs, dlr retreated to 115.89, suggesting choppy trading below 116.20 would be seen.
Initial bids are noted at 115.90-85 with stops below there, more buying interest is reported at 115.60-55 with stops below yesterday's NY low at 115.21.
On the upside, offers are reported at 116.10/20 and more at 116.40/50.
Statement from Japan's Chief Gov't Spokesman Yoshihide Suga (Chief Cabinet Sec) says Japan economy in recovery trend through gov't's economic policies.
While Japan FinMin Aso comment:
economy continuing a moderate recovery on the whole;
gov't must continue with efforts on fiscal reform;
private consumption stalling but employment, incomes investment improving; it would be become hard to halve primary budget deficit in FY2015/16 as planned if sales tax hike delayed.'
Japan sales tax hike is delayed, gov't may need to consider if economic stimulus steps are needed;
rising sales tax and delaying sales tax hike both carry risks, up to gov't to take steps to reduce these risks;
if Abe delays sales tax hike, he will do utmost to achieve primary budget deficit reduction targets;
not possible Abe to delay sales tax hike indefinitely; cannot allow trust in Japanese gov't debt to be damaged.'
Friday will see the release of France GDP, Germany GDP, Italy GDP, UK construction output, EU GDP, CPI, U.S. retail sales, export prices, import prices, business inventories, U. of Michigan sentiment and Canada manufacturing sales.
AceTraderFx Nov 14: Intra-Day News Market Moving and Views (EUR/USD)
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
14 Nov 2014 08:08GMT
EUR/USD - ....... The release of slight better-than-expected German GDP triggered intra-day broad-based short covering in the euro earlier. Reuters reported the German economy grew by just 0.1% in the 3rd quarter of 2014, narrowly avoiding a recession thanks to a strong rise in consumer spending n small boost from foreign trade.
Some economists had feared Europe's largest economy would sink into recession in the July-September period after a 2nd quarter contraction, but Germany managed to match a consensus forecast for 0.1% growth in a Reuters poll.
The Statistics Office said the main positive impulse came from private households "which sharply increased their spending" while foreign trade provided "a slight positive effect on GDP".
Investments declined overall, the Statistics Office said, with investment in equipment declining sharply, investment in construction down slightly and a clear reduction in inventories.
Euro pares intra-day losses as early release of slightly better-than-expected French & German GDP triggered minor short-covering in the euro. As mentioned in previous update, st specs sold the euro at Asian open in anticipation of downbeat GDP readings from France, Germany, Italy & then EZ.
Intra-day decline accelerated in post-Tokyo lunch session on dovish comments by ECB Council member Noyer, euro fell to 1.2427 ahead of European open b4 rebounding to 1.2456 after the German GDP data.
Range trading above 1.2427 is expected until release of Italy's GDP & later EZ GDP at 18:00GMT.
Offers are tipped at 1.2455/60 n more above with fairly stops reported above 1.2510.
Bids are noted at 1.2430-20 with stops below 1.2390.
AceTraderFx Nov 14: Daily Technical Outlook & Trading Ideals on EUR/USD
DAILY EUR/USD TECHNICAL OUTLOOK
Last Update At 14 Nov 2014 00:07GMT
Trend Daily Chart
Down
Daily Indicators
Bullish convergences
21 HR EMA
1.2468
55 HR EMA
1.2459
Trend Hourly Chart
Sideways
Hourly Indicators
Neutral
13 HR RSI
57
14 HR DMI
+ve
Daily Analysis
Consolidation with downside bias
Resistance
1.2560 - 38.2% r of 1.2888-1.2357
1.2533 - Last Thur's high
1.2509 - Mon's high
Support
1.2419 - Wed's low
1.2395 - Tue's low
1.2357 - Last Fri's 26-month low
. EUR/USD - 1.2474 ... Despite Wed's erratic decline to 1.2419, the single currency ratcheted higher on Thur n ratcheted higher back to 1.2490 in NY morning due to renewed cross buying in euro (eur/jpy rallied fm 143.57 to as high as 144.60). Price rose marginally to 1.2492 ahead of New York close b4 easing.
. Looking at the hourly & daily charts, the volatile price action fm last
Fri's 26-month trough at 1.2357 is possibly unfolding into a triangle with a-leg: 1.2509, b-leg: 1.2395, c-leg:1.2499, d-leg:1.2419. Therefore, as long as res at 1.2499 (reaction high on Mon/a-leg top) holds, consolidation with downside bias remains but below 1.2395 sup (b-leg trough) is needed to confirm correction is over n yield resumption of MT downtrend fm May's 2-1/2 year peak at 1.3995 for re-test of 1.2357, then later twd 1.2311 (this is 61.8% projection of 1.3433-1.2500 measured fm 1.2888) next week. On the upside, a daily close abv 1.2509 res wud bring stronger retracement to 1.2533 (last Thur's high) n then 1.2560 (38.2% r of 1.2888-1.2537) but reckon res 1.2577 may hold initially.
. Today, we're holding a short position entered y'day at 1.2485 for subsequent weakness to 1.2510 n only abv 1.2509 res wud abort bearish bias on euro.
AceTraderFx Nov 17: Intra-Day News and Views (USD/JPY) & data to be released today
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
17 Nov 2014 01:45GMT
USD/JPY - ...... Despite a brief jump above Fri's 116.82 top to a fresh 7-year high of 117.06 after Japan's Q3 GDP unexpectedly contracted, intra-day sell off in the Nikkei (N225 fell from 17409 to 17133) triggered broad-based buying of yen on risk aversion in Asia.
Reuters reported Japan's economy unexpectedly slipped into recession in Q3, setting the stage for PM Shinzo Abe to delay an unpopular sales tax hike n call a snap election just 2 years after he took office.
GDP fell at an annualised 1.6% pace in July-September period, after it plunged 7.3% in the 2nd quarter following a rise in the national sales tax.
The economy had been forecast to rebound by 2.1% in the 3rd quarter.
Abe had said he would look at the data when deciding whether to press ahead with a 2nd increase in the sales tax to 10% in October next year, as part of a plan to curb Japan's huge public debt, the worst among advanced nations.
Japanese media have said the PM, who returns from a week-long tour to China, Myanmar and Australia on Monday, could announce his decision to delay the hike as early as Tuesday and states his intention to call a poll, which ruling party lawmakers expect to be held on Dec. 14.
Etsuro Honda, an economic adviser to Abe who opposes the tax rise, has said that if growth was under 3.8%, raising the tax rate would be "out of the question".
This week will see the release of the following economic data:
New Zealand retail sales, Japan's GDP, U.K. Rightmove house price, EU eurostat trade, U.S. New York Empire state manufacutring, ECB Draghi's speech, U. S. industrial production on Monday;
Australia's CB leading indicator, Westpac leading index and RBA meeting minutes, China house prices, U.K. CPI, PPI and RPI, Germany's ZEW economic sentiment, U.S. PPI, Redbook, NAHB housing market index, net L-T flows, overall net capital flows and foreign buys on Tuesday;
BoJ interest rate decision, EU current account, BoE MPC Vote outcome, Swiss ZEW investor sentiment, U.S. building permits, housing starts, FOMC minutes on Wednesday;
Japan's export, imports, trade balance and manufacturing PMI, China HSBC manufacturing PMI, BoJ monthly economic survey, Germany's producer prices ad Markit service PMI, EU Markit PMI, U.K. retail sales, CBI trade, Canada's wholesale trade, U.S. CPI, Markit manufacturing PMI, Philly Fed business index, existing home sales, leading index change and consumer confidence on Thursday;
U.K. PSNCR and Canada CPI on Friday.
AceTraderFx Nov 17: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views (USD/JPY)
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
17 Nov 2014 08:06GMT
USD/JPY - ...... Although the greenback fell sharply from a fresh 7-year peak at 117.06 to as low as 115.48 in Asia on long-liquation and risk-off trade on the back of fall in Nikkei (N225 ended the day down 2.96% to 16973.80), price rebounded once the European traders entered the market and climbed back above 116.00 level in European morning.
Offers are noted at 116.15/20 and around 116.30 with mixture of offers and stops located at 116.50, whilst bids are placed at 115.80-70 and then 115.50 with stops emerging just below 115.46.
Japan EconMin Akira Amari said:
'given state of economy, high chance PM Abe to decide some form of economic stimulus;
any stimulus package wud need to balance growth n fiscal discipline;
may be difficult to compile an exceptionally large stimulus package;
measures to help low-income households one option but up to PM Abe to decide stimulus details.'
Japan Chief gov't spokesman says 'Abe to make decision tomorrow on economic measures.'
Also earlier Japan PM adviser Hamada said:
'Japan economy a little bit unstable;
April consumption tax hike negative direction for Abenomics;
important for Japan to cut corporate tax to attract foreign investors and keep Japanese investors;
sees some signs gov't is seriously considering sales tax hike delay;
sales tax should be gradually raised.'
is it bumasoft indicator ?
AceTraderFx Nov 18: Intra-Day News and Views (AUD/USD) & data to be released today
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
18 Nov 2014 00:31GMT
AUD/USD - ........ statement from RBA minutes, quote:
- Australia C.bank minutes repeat outlook is for period of stability in rates
- A$ above estimates of fundamental value, providing less help to economy
- BoJ stimulus, Japanese pension fund flows could keep A$ above fundamental value
- RBA board cited considerable uncertainty over China property market, impact on economy
- domestic growth running at moderate pace, to remain below trend until late 2016
- very low rates, growing population to support housing market, home building
- higher home prices filtering through to household wealth and consumption
- RBA board noted lending to home investors rising noticeably faster than to owner occupiers
- mining investment still set to fall sharply, offset by rising resource exports
- RBA board noted non-mining investment not being hampered by cost or availability of finance
- labour market subdued, would be some time before unemployment fell consistently
- sluggish wage growth to help keep inflation in line with target range
Tuesday will see the release of Australia's CB leading indicator, Westpac leading index and RBA meeting minutes, China house prices, U.K. CPI, PPI and RPI, Germany's ZEW economic sentiment, U.S. PPI, Redbook, NAHB housing market index, net L-T flows, overall net capital flows and foreign treasury buys.