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AceTraderFx Jul 30: Daily Technical Outlook & Trading Ideals on GBP/USD
DAILY GBP/USD TECHNICAL OUTLOOK
Last Update At 30 Jul 2014 00:48GMT
Trend Daily Chart
Up
Daily Indicators
Falling
21 HR EMA
1.6953
55 HR EMA
1.6938
Trend Hourly Chart
Down
Hourly Indicators
Bullish convergences
13 HR RSI
69
14 HR DMI
-ve
Daily Analysis
Consolidation b4 marginal fall
Resistance
1.7054 - Last Thur's high
1.7024 - Last Wed's low (now res)
1.6995 - Y'day's high
Support
1.6934 - Y'day's low
1.6920 - Jun 18 low
1.6884 - 61.8% r of 1.6693-1.7180
. GBP/USD- 1.6946 ... Despite cable's brief drop to 1.6968 ahead of European open on Tue, the pair rebounded briefly to 1.6995 on short-covering in Europe but selling interest quickly emerged n cable tumbled to 1.6933 in NY morning after the release of much stronger-than-expected US consumer confidence.
. Looking at the daily picture, last week's break of 1.7037 strongly suggests the LT uptrend has formed a temporary top at 1.7192 n y'day's breach of indicated daily sup at 1.6952 confirms this view n further weakness to 1.6919/20 (61.8% projection of 1.7095-1.6962 measured fm 1.7001 n Jun 18 low respectively) wud be seen, however, as hourly oscillators' readings have displayed 'bullish convergences', steep decline is unlikely to be seen. Going forward, a daily close below 1.6920 wud send cable lower to 1.6845 n then twd 1.6738 in Aug.
. Today, we're holding a short position in anticipation of marginal weakness to 1.6920 n wud look to sell cable again on subsequent recovery as only abv 1.6995/01 res area (y'day's n Mon's high respectively) wud confirm a temp. low is made n risk retracement to 1.7024, break wud bring stronger gain to 1.7054, however, 1.7095/99 res area is expected to remain intact.
AceTraderFx Jul 31: Intra-Day Market Moving News & Views & data to be released today
Intra-Day Market Moving New and Views
31 Jul 2014 01:05GMT
Statement just released by the IMF quote:
'reiterates China 2014 GDP growth forecast at 7.4 pct, 2015 GDP growth at 7.1 pct;
appropriate for China to set 2015 GDP growth target at 6.5-7 pct;
some directors feel an even lower 2015 GDP growth target is appropriate for China;
China should not deploy broad stimulus unless GDP growth well under target level;
reiterates that yuan is "moderately undervalued";
weakness in China real estate sector poses near-term risks for economy; urgent for China to push reforms as current path of growth is unsustainable; near-term risks in china economy manageable due to gov't policy buffers.'
Yesterday, The Federal Reserve pressed ahead with its plan to wind down its bond-buying stimulus and upgraded its assessment of the U.S. economy, while reaffirming it is in no rush to raise interest rates.
The central bank cut its monthly asset purchases to $25 billion from $35 billion, leaving it on course to shutter the program this fall.
The Fed reiterated that it would likely keep rates near zero for a "considerable time" after its bond buying ends and restated that an "accommodative" policy was needed.
The Fed has kept overnight rates near zero since December 2008 and has more than quadrupled its balance sheet to $4.4 trillion through a series of bond purchase programs.
But it cited improving labor market conditions and declining unemployment and acknowledged rising inflation.
Thursdaywill see the release of U.K. GfK consumer confidence, Australia's building approvals and private home approval, Japan's housing start and construction orders, Germany's unemployment rate, Canada's GDP and U.S. Challenger layoffs and Chicago PMI.
AceTraderFx Jul 31: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views GBP/USD
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
31 Jul 2014 06:59GMT
GBP/USD - .... The British pound relinquished intra-day gain made in Asia after meeting renewed selling at 1.6927 shortly ahead of European open.
Despite edging higher from 1.6906 (Aust.) to 1.6927 on steady short-covering, sellers emerged after U.K. Nationwide house prices came in lower then consensus. Jul m/m was 0.1% vs forecast of 0.5%, previous month's reading was 1.0%.
Judging from current weakness in early European trading, looks like st specs are testing cable's downside n stops below yesterday's 6-week low at 1.6890 are now in focus. Offers remained at 1.6925/30 with some stops above there, suggesting selling the pound is the way to go due to dlr's broad-based strength in European morning..
31 Jul 2014 06:03GMT
GBP/USD -.... U.K. Jul house prices +0.1% m/m vs Jun +1.0% n +10.6% y/y vs 11.8% in Jun.
AceTraderFx Aug 1: Intra-Day Market Moving News & Views & data to be released today
Intra-Day Market Moving New and Views
01 Aug 2014 02:22GMT
China July's final HSBC Mfg PMI came in at 51.7 vs previous preliminary reading of 52.0.
Reuters reported China's vast factory sector posted its strongest growth in 18 months in Jul as new orders surged to multi-month highs, a private survey showed on Friday, adding to signs the economy is regaining momentum after a flurry of govt. stimulus measures.
The HSBC/Markit China manufacturing PMI climbed to 51.7 last month, up from June's 50.7 but slightly below a preliminary reading of 52.
Still, July's reading is the best outcome since January 2013. Output and total new orders both rose at the strongest rates since March 2013, while new export work increased at the 2nd-fastest pace in more than 3-1/2 years.
Fridaywill see the release of China’s NBS manufacturing PMI, Australia’s PPI, Japan’s manufacturing PMI, China HSBC manufacturing PMI final, U.S. unemployment rate, Markit/CIPS manufacturing PMI, unemployment rate, PCE price index, private payrolls and non-farm payrolls, University of Michigan consumer confidence and ISM manufacturing PMI.
AceTraderFx Aug 1: Dollar steadies ahead of Friday’s key U.S. jobs report
Market Review - 31/07/2014 22:59GMT
Dollar steadies ahead of Friday’s key U.S. jobs report
The greenback moved narrowly inside 102.75-103.01 range on Thursday after Wednesday's rally to a 3-1/2 month top of 103.15 due to a surprise jump in U.S. GDP. Despite Thursday's brief bounce from Asian low at 102.72 to 103.01 after the release of U.S. jobless claims, price later retreated to 102.75 in New York.
The four-week average of jobless claims dropped to 297,250, the lowest since April 2006, from 300,750 the prior week. Claims in the period ended July 26 climbed to 302,000 versus the economist forecast of 301,000 with downwardly revised 279,000 (the lowest since 2000) the prior week.
The single currency also moved narrowly on Thursday after Wed's resumption of decline to a fresh 8-1/2 month low at 1.3366 due to a surprise jump in U.S. GDP. Euro edged lower from Wednesday's NY res at 1.3405 to 1.3371 in NY after the release of US jobless claims b4 rebounding to 1.3399. Earlier in the day, Germany retail sales came in at 1.3% m/m and 0.4% y/y versus previous readings of -0.6% and 1.9% respectively. German unemployment rate remained unchanged at 6.7% whilst unemployment change came in at -12K versus forecast of -5K.
Despite staging a brief bounce to 1.6927 just before Europe open on Thursday, renewed selling quickly emerged after the release of U.K. Nationwide house prices which came in lower than the economists’ forecast. July m/m was 0.1% versus forecast of 0.5%, previous month's reading was 1.0%. Cable ratcheted lower to a fresh 6-week low at 1.6857 after the release of U.S. jobless claims before recovering to 1.6889 in late NY.
In other news, Bank of England Deputy Governor Ben Broadbent in an interview in his office said, it's "quite possible" the pound is 10% overvalued and its strength may have a long-lasting impact on inflation.
IMF said 'Japan's risks over medium-term are tilted to downside; if Japan doesn't deliver on reforms, growth expectations may falter, concerns over public debt will rise; BoJ easing without structural reforms cud cause yen to weaken unduly, complicate exit fm QE; gov't must take bolder steps to increase labour supply, ease regulations in services sector; no need for BoJ easing now, but BoJ shud act quickly if growth weakens or inflation expectations reverse; Japan to grow 1.6% this year, stabilize around 1% growth in medium-term.'
Fridaywill see the release of China’s NBS manufacturing PMI, Australia’s PPI, Japan’s manufacturing PMI, China HSBC manufacturing PMI final, U.S. unemployment rate, Markit/CIPS manufacturing PMI, unemployment rate, PCE price index, private payrolls and non-farm payrolls, University of Michigan consumer confidence and ISM manufacturing PMI.
AceTraderFx Aug 1: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views EUR/USD
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
01 Aug 2014 08:00GMT
EUR/USD - ... Euro languishes abv Wed's 8-1/2 month trough of 1.3366 in European morning. Price showed muted reaction to release of Markit Jul mfg PMI fm Italy, France, Germany & the EZ. The actual readings came in below market consensus (except France, Jul was 47.8 vs forecast of 47.8).
The lack of intra-day price swings in early European morning suggest further range trading wud continue as traders are keeping their powder dry until release of the key U.S. payrolls data at 12:30GMT. Offers are reported at 1.3495/05 with some stops abv there, then more offers are tipped at 1.3420/30. On the downside, some bids are touted at 1.3370-60 with continued market chatter of an option barrier at 1.3350, then stops are reported below there. Until the U.S. jobs report is out, selling euro on recovery is the way to go.
Earlier, with release of Markit Mfg PMI of several major countries in the EZ due out shortly, Reuters reported that inflationary pressures in the euro zone have risen to a 27-month high, suggesting the ECB's efforts to fend off deflation are working, an indicator designed to predict cyclical trends showed on Fri.
The Eurozone Future Inflation Gauge (EZFIG), published by the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI), rose to 96.7 in June from April's 96.2.
Annual inflation in the euro zone fell to just 0.4% in Jul, its lowest since the height of the financial crisis in 2009, official data showed on Thur. Therefore, most traders wud take this reading with a pinch of salt !
AceTraderFx Aug 1: Daily Technical Outlook & Trading Ideals on USD/CHF
DAILY USD/CHF TECHNICAL OUTLOOK
Last Update At 01 Aug 2014 00:15GMT
Trend Daily Chart
Sideways
Daily Indicators
Rising
21 HR EMA
0.9088
55 HR EMA
0.9081
Trend Hourly Chart
Up
Hourly Indicators
Turning down
13 HR RSI
52
14 HR DMI
-ve
Daily Analysis
Consolidation b4 uptrend resumes
Resistance
0.9194 - eq. proj. of 0.8698-0.9037 fm 0.8857
0.9157 - Jan 21 high
0.9110 - Wed's 6-month high
Support
0.9035 - Mon's low
0.9008 - Last Thur's low
0.8972 - Last Mon's low
. USD/CHF - 0.9088... Although dlr traded narrowly in tandem with eur/usd in Asia y'day n briefly edged lower to 0.9078 in European morning, the pair pared intra-day losses n rose to session high at 0.9103 at NY open. However, offers below 0.9110 top pressured price lower n dlr fell to 0.9076 in NY morning.
. The outlook remains similar to prev's update, where dlr's rally to a fresh 6-month high at 0.9110 on Wed confirms the 3-legged upmove fm Mar's 2-1/2 year trough at 0.8698 wud resume after consolidation b4 extending gain twds 2014 top at 0.9157 (Jan 21), abv wud yield marginal headway, however, as 'bearish divergences' on the hourly indicators wud appear on such a move, strg gain abv there is unlikely to be seen n reckon 0.9194 (equality proj. of 0.8698-0.9037 measured fm 0.8857) shud remain intact this week n bring a much-needed correction next week. On the downside, only below last Thur's low at 0.9008 wud confirm a temporary top has been made n risk stronger retracement twd 0.8972 (last Mon's low) in the early part of Aug.
. Today, we are holding a long position entered on Wed for gain to 0.9150 n only below Mon's 0.9035 wud risk stronger retracement twd 0.9008.
AceTraderFx Aug 4: Intra-Day Market Moving News & Views & data to be released today
Intra-Day Market Moving New and Views
04 Aug 2014 01:12GMT
EUR/USD - .... News over the weekend worth noting, Bloomberg reported that 'Portugal's central bank took control of Banco Espirito Santo SA in a 4.9 billion-euro ($6.6 billion) bailout that will leave junior bondholders with losses.
'The full contribution of shareholders and of subordinated debt holders to the losses of Banco Espirito Santo will be ensured in accordance with the burden sharing rules' set out in 2013, the European Commission said in a statement on Sunday as it approved the plan.
Subordinated bonds have been hit by European regulators seeking to share the cost of resolving distressed banks with bondholders, with losses inflicted on holders of junior debt of lenders including Britain? Co-Operative Bank Plc and Spain's Bankia SA. (BKIA).
Banco Espirito Santo has 457 million euros of Tier 1 bonds, its most junior debt securities, and 853 million euros of more-senior Tier 2 bonds, making a total of about 1.3 billion euros, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The lender has 13.5 billion euros of senior bonds and 4.63 billion euros of secured notes outstanding. All in all, it has 20.4 billion euros of bond debt outstanding, the data show.
Banco Espirito Santo is 20 percent owned by Espirito Santo Financial Group, part of a chain of companies linked to the bank? founding family. The lender? largest outside shareholders include France? Credit Agricole SA (ACA), owner of a 14.6 percent stake, as well as Brazil? Banco Bradesco SA (BBDC4), which has a 3.9 percent holding.
Banco Espirito Santo shares slumped 67 percent in July as three parent companies linked to the Espirito Santo family requested protection from creditors and concern grew that the bank may have to inject additional capital into its Angola unit.
Vitor Bento, who will be Novo Banco's chief executive officer, said the decision removes key uncertainties around the bank and the lender is now stronger and safer than before, according to a statement.
Next weekwill see the release of Australia’s retail sales, Swiss PMI, UK Markit CIPS Cons PMI, Eurozone producer prices, U.S. iSM New York index on Monday.
Australia’s import, export and trade balance, Japan’s services PMI, China HSbC services PMI, Reserve Bank of Australia rate decision, German and Eurozone Markit services PMI, Eurozone retail sales, U.S. redbook, U.S. Markit services PMI, ISM non-manufacturing PMI, durable goods, and factory orders on Tuesday.
New Zealand HLFS unemployment rate, UK BRC shop price index, Japan’s leading indicator, German industrial orders, Swiss CPI, U.K. industrial and manufacturing output, Canada’s import, export and trade balance on Wednesday.
Australia’s unemployment rate, Swiss consumer confidence, German industrial output, Bank of England rate decision, eurozone rate decision, Canada’s Ivy PMI and building permit on Thursday.
Japan’s current account, Australia’s housing finance, China’s export, import and trade balance, Swiss unemployment rate, German import, export and trade balance, U.K. trade balance, Canada’s unemployment rate, U.S. productivity, wholesale sales and inventories on Friday.
AceTraderFx Aug 4: Daily Market Moving New and Views GBP/USD
Daily Market Moving New and Views
04 Aug 2014 03:20GMT
GBP/USD- ... For those news browsers in quiet Asian session, U.K. Telegraph reported Boris Johnson, the Mayor of London is to back a report that claims leaving the EU would be better than staying if PM David Cameron fails to negotiate reforms.
The report estimates that the UK leaving the EU wud be far fm catastrophic for the capital, n better than staying if Britain's position in the organisation is not renegotiated.
The Mayor is on Wed set to outline an eight-point plan for reform of the EU, setting out the way in which the UK should renegotiate its place in the union. He will outline the points in a speech at Bloomberg's London offices, focusing on the UK's future relationship with Europe. At next May's general election, Europe is likely to be a crucial battle ground.
Earlier the pound languishes near Fri's fresh 6-week low of 1.6812 in subdued Asian trading on Mon. Despite staging a brief short-covering rebound to 1.6862 after U.S. Jul payrolls' increase was below market forecast n unemployment increased by 0.1%, sellers quickly emerged n cable later ratcheted lower back to 1.6818 near NY close.
The narrow movement in Asia is expected to continue until release of U.K. Jun construction PMI. Cable rec'd renewed bashing on Fri after U.K. mfg PMI came in well below the lowest forecast n fell to 55.4 fm 57.2 in June (its lowest level since July 2013). If today's construction PMI is below market consensus, then expect another round of selling to emerge. Even if the reading beats forecast, sterling bears will continue to sell the pound on intra-day rally. Bids are noted at 1.6815/05 with stops reported below 1.6800, on the upside, offers are tipped at 1.6850/60 n more abv with stops touted above 1.6990/95.
AceTraderFx Aug 4: Weekly Technical Outlook & Trading Ideals on JPY/USD
WEEKLY USD/JPY TECHNICAL OUTLOOK
Last Update At 03 Aug 2014 23:13GMT
Trend Daily Chart
Sideways
Daily Indicators
Rising
21 HR EMA
102.66
55 HR EMA
102.66
Trend Hourly Chart
Up
Hourly Indicators
Rising fm o/s
13 HR RSI
37
14 HR DMI
-ve
Daily Analysis
Consolidation with mild upside bias
Resistance
103.50 - 80.9% r of 104.13-100.81
103.15 - Wed's high
102.84 - 61.8% r of 130.15-102.34
Support
102.34 - Last Fri's low
102.16 - Last Tue's high
101.72 Jul 25 low
. USD/JPY - 102.55... The greenback continued its recent winning streak n climbed to a 3-1/2 month peak of 103.15 on Wed after U.S. GDP surprised to the upside n increased to 4% in Q2 n then eased after mildly dovish FOMC statements. Dlr later fell sharply to 102.34 on Fri after U.S. jobs report missed estimate.
. Looking at the bigger picture, although dlr's rally abv Jun's high at 102.80 to 103.15 last Wed confirms MT 3-legged rise fm 100.81 (May's bottom) has resumed n further headway to measured objective at 103.50/53 is envisaged after consolidation (being 80.9% r of 104.13-100.81 n equality proj. of 100.81-102.80 measured fm 101.07 respectively), however, as price is expected to 'gyrate' inside the well trodden 7-month long range of 100.76-105.45, reckon 104.13 res shud cap upside n yield a much-needed retreat later. Looking ahead, only a move abv 104.13 needed to confirm the correction fm this year's high at 105.45 (Jan 02) has indeed ended at 100.76 n bring re-test of this res lvl in Aug/Sep.
. Today, as 102.34 has contained dlr's weakness, consolidation with upside bias is seen but abv 103.15 needed to extend marginal gain, bearish divergences on hourly indicators wud cap price below 103.50. Below 102.16 risks 101.72/70.