Intraday trading signal - page 108
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Very useful analysis, thank you.
AceTraderFx Jul 22: Intra-Day Market Moving News & Views & data to be released today
Intra-Day Market Moving New and Views
22 Jul 2014 02:12GMT
USD/JPY- .... The greenback strengthened ahead of Asian open today as risk appetites improved after comments from Japan economy minister Amari (see our prev. MMN). Broad-based selling in yen pushed dlr rose above yesterday's high of 101.39 to 101.52 b4 easing.
Today, expect the greenback to trade with a mild upside bias ahead of European open but gain should be ltd due to thin market condition as investors are on the sidelines to monitor development of events in Ukraine and Gaza. Having said that, market participants should pay attention to the U.S.'s CPI and existing home sales due out at 12:30GMT n 14:00GMT respectively. Market forecasts CPI m/m for Jun to be lowered to 0.2% from previous reading of 0.3%, whilst core CPI m/m in Jun also to be reduced to 0.3% from previous reading of 0.4%. Meanwhile, market expects the existing home sale for Jun to be 2.0% and 4.95 mln units.
At the moment, offers are noted at 101.60-70 n then 101.75/80 with stops emerging above 102.00, whilst bids from various accounts are placed at 101.40-30 n around 101.20 with stops located just below 101.10.
The United Nations Security Council condemned the downing of a Malaysian passenger plane in Ukraine with 298 people on board and demand that armed groups allow safe, secure, full and unrestricted access to the crash.
Earlier, Bloomberg headline which came out in Australia, Kyodo news reported comments from Japan economy minister Amari who said Japan to decide on 10% sales tax hike in early Dec.
Dlr climbed on the news ahead of Asian open and hit intra-day high of 101.51 after tripping stops above last Fri's top at 101.45.
U.S. President Barack Obama & Polish President Komorowski stress in call need for "transatlantic solidarity" in response of Malaysia plane & "Russia's efforts to destabilise Ukraine" - White House.
Data to be released on Tuesday:
The release of China leading index, Japan leading index, Swiss trade balance, UK PSNB, PSNCR, CBI trends, U.S. CPI, core CPI, Redbook retail sales, home price and existing home sales.
AceTraderFx Jul 22: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views NZD/USD AUD/USD
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
22 Jul 2014 05:00GMT
NZD/USD - 0.8678... RBNZ Deputy Governor Spencer said, quote:
'Reserve Bank of New Zealand to review prudential rules for banks, non-bank lenders;
review to "thin stock" of current regulation, won't be 'a severe pruning'; banking review to take 12 months, may remove redundant rules, simplify framework;
review will not include rules covering insurance sector; key planks such as capital adequacy, liquidity, risk management, governance not in review.'
AUD/USD - Earlier Statements from RBA Governor Glenn Stevens continues to speak and said "markets remarkably sanguine on geopolitics up to now.
'low rates are doing the things they usually do; doing all that could reasonably be expected at moment, content for now; if policy could reasonably do more, would consider it.'
He began his statement, quote:
"hard to say how successful qe has been globally";
"subdued 'animal spirits' likely one reason for slow economic recoveries";
" is sure spirits will improve at some point, G20 growth agenda could help".
Stevens makes no comments on domestic monetary policy & A$ in his speech. Aud briefly bounced to intra-day high of 0.9395 as st specs sold aussie ahead of Stevens' speech n quickly covered their shorts after his speech did not mention the A$.
AceTraderFx Jul 22: Daily Technical Outlook & Trading Ideals on EUR/USD
DAILY EUR/USD TECHNICAL OUTLOOK
Last Update At 22 Jul 2014 00:03GMT
Trend Daily Chart
Down
Daily Indicators
Bullish convergences
21 HR EMA
1.3524
55 HR EMA
1.3527
Trend Hourly Chart
Down
Hourly Indicators
Bullish convergences
13 HR RSI
48
14 HR DMI
-ve
Daily Analysis
Consolidation b4 marginal fall
Resistance
1.3650 - Last Thur's high
1.3589 - Last Thur's low
1.3549 - Y'day's high
Support
1.3492 - Last Fri's 5-month low
1.3477 - 2014 low (Feb 03)
1.3454 - 50% proj. of 1.3995 to 1.3503 fm 1.3700
. EUR/USD- 1.3523... Euro extended recovery fm last Fri's fresh 5-month trough of 1.3491 to 1.3549 on Mon after triggering stops abv 1.3540 in Asia, how ever, offers at 1.3550/60 capped intra-day gain n selling emerged at European open due to weakness in European shares n price dropped to 1.3513 in NY morning.
. Looking at the daily chart, despite euro's rebound fm 1.3491 to 1.3549, last week's breach of Jun's low at 1.3503 confirms the MT downtrend fm May's 2-1/2 year peak at 1.3995 has once again resumed n weakness to next daily chart obj. at 1.3477 (2014 low) wud be forthcoming soon this week n later twds 1.3454 (this is 50% proj. of 1.3995-1.3503 measured fm 1.3700), however, as the hourly indicators have already displayed 'bullish convergences', reckon 1.3396/99 (61.8% projection of 1.3991.3995-1.3503 n daily sup respectively) wud hold on 1st testing. On the upside, only a daily close abv 1.3589 (prev. sup, now res) wud be the 1st signal temporary low is in place, then stronger correction to 1.3640/50 wud be seen but res at 1.3700 shud remain intact.
. Today, we're holding a short position in anticipation of marginal fall with stop now abv 1.3549 res, break may risk retracement twd 1.3589.
Intra-day Market Moving News and Views EUR/USD
Intra-day Market Moving News and Views
22 Jul 2014 08:58 GMT
EUR/USD- .... The single currency met renewed selling interest at 1.3530 in Asian morning n weakened ahead of European open. Intra-day decline accelerated in early European morning n price fell below last Fri's 5-month low at 1.3491 to 1.3480 on broad-based selling of euro. Offers are now seen at 1.3500/05 and more above at 1.3515/20 with stops building up above there whilst initial bids are noted at 1.3460/70, suggesting selling on recovery is favored.
Earlier in the Asian morning opening today saw the single currency moved sideways below yesterday's high of 1.3549 but with a soft bias due to ongoing market sentiments that the ECB has room to loosen policy while the Federal Reserve will continue to wind down stimulus tools this year n hike interest rates in 2015.
There are zero economic data to be released fm EZ today, therefore, euro should closely followed the move with other usd/majors.
Range trading below y'day's high of 1.3549 is likely to continue ahead of European open as market eyes on events unfolding in Ukraine and Gaza whilst stops located just below last Fri's 5-month low at 1.3491 are in focus.
At the moment, offers from various accounts was noted at 1.3535/40 n then 1.3545/50 with mixture of offers n stops located above 1.3570.
On the downside, bids were placed at 1.3515/10 and around 1.3500.
AceTraderFx Jul 22: Intra-Day Market Moving News & Views & data to be released today
Intra-Day Market Moving New and Views
23 Jul 2014 01:33GMT
USD/JPY.... Statement from BoJ's Deputy Governor Nakaso quote: 'Japan's economy continues to grow above its potential; domestic demand is firm but exports continue to move sideways;
expect Japan's economy to continue to grow above its potential as virtuous cycle is sustained;
QQE exerting its intended effect with long-term yields moving stably, inflation expectations rising as a whole;
Japan eyeing end of deflation but still half-way through in meeting BoJ's price target;
won't hesitate to adjust policy if risks threaten change to our economic, price projections;
no evidence to confirm view that U.S. is suffering "secular stagnation"; situation in Ukraine, Russia a potential risk for global outlook, warrants attention;
I am somewhat concern about slow growth in emerging economies, particularly in Asia; decline in Japan's private consumption broadly in line with initial expectations;
pace of recovery in Japan's exports has been slower than in the past when considering pace of recovery in global growth, yen moves;
Japan's real exports are expected to increase moderately, though must watch developments "without undue optimism"; Japan likely to achieve 2% inflation in or around fiscal 2015.'
Earlier quoting source from the Nikkie which said Abe advisers urge an initial 2% corporate tax cut.
Wednesdaywill see the release of Australia CPI, France business climate, UK BoE minutes, BBA mortgage approvals, Italy trade balance, Canada retail sales and EU consumer confidence.
AceTraderFx Jun 23: Intra-Day Market Moving News & Views USD/JPY
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
23 Jul 2014 05:20GMT
USD/JPY- .... Statement from BoJ's Deputy Governor Nakaso quote:
'Japan's economy recovering moderately as a trend, impact of sales tax hike easing; sales tax hike reduces real household income, so must watch its impact on consumption;
global financial regulation must be created in a way that does not excessively hamper private-sector banking activity;
too early to debate specific exit strategy for BoJ's QEE programme;
BoJ has experience exiting previous QE in 2006 and already has various means to withdraw liquidity;
how to use such means to withdraw liquidity and in what order, would depend on economic, price conditions at the time;
BoJ won't be able to use same exit strategy as when it ended previous QE, as its balance sheet is larger and debt duration is longer;
monetary policy has a role to lay in addressing financial imbalances ;
in general, prolonged ultra-loose policy may spur excessive risk taking, but no such behavior seen in Japan.'
23 Jul 2014 02:17GMT
USD/JPY - .... Although dlr edged higher in Tokyo morning n climbed to 101.54, renewed broad-based buying in yen quickly emerged after comments BoJ's Deputy Governor Nakaso (see our prev. MMN) n pressured price to 101.39.
Today, the greenback shud remain supportive as the release of solid U.S. inflation and existing home sales numbers y'day determines that the U.S. economy continues to improve n is in need of less support fm the Federal Reserve. Therefore, buying dlr on dips in anticipation of next intra-day upmove is recommended, however, as broad outlook is consolidative n in an absence of U.S. economic events in U.S. today, reckon renewed selling may emerge below last Wed's high of 101.79 n yield retreat later.
At the moment, bids are noted at 101.25/20 n around 101.10 with stops emerging just below 101.00. On the upside, offers are placed at 101.55/60 n then 101.70 with mixture of offers n stops located at 101.95/00.
Earlier quoting source fm the Nikkie which said Abe advisers urge an initial 2% corporate tax cut.
AceTraderFx Jul 23: Intra-Day Market Moving News & Views GBP/USD
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
23 Jul 2014 08:43GMT
GBP/USD - .... Despite a brief spike up to 1.7095 after the release of BoE minutes, the British pound swiftly pared its gains n dropped to 1.7063 as the minutes were deemed as less hawkish than expected. BoE minutes showed that the MPC committee is still looking at the pros n cons for an early rate rise n that they were worried about hurting the country's economic recovery.
Offers are now seen at 1.7080/90 n more above at 1.7100/05 with stops building up above there whilst initial bids are noted at 1.7040/45, suggesting selling cable on intra-day recovery is still favored.
BoE releases its minutes, Quote:
'MPC have pre-set view on timing of a rate rise, will depend on data;
some MPC members feel decision on rate rise had become more balanced over past few months than earlier in the year;
growth generally looking more assured but tentative indications of slight slowdown forecast for H2;
one view was that risk of small rate rise derailing economy had receded, cud help assess response of economy;
size of labor market slack uncertain so pace at which it is used may be more relevant;
other view was that unexpected rate rise cud have outsize impact as global growth grows;
little indication of inflationary pressures building;
different MPC members put different weights on these interpretations;
expect Q2 GDP growth of 0.9% b4 slowing modestly in Q3 n Q4;
response of mkts to geopolitical events n economic risks surprisingly low.'
AceTraderFx Jul 24: Intra-Day Market Moving News & Views & data to be released today
Intra-Day Market Moving New and Views USD/JPY AUD/USD
24 Jul 2014 00:42GMT
USD/JPY - 101.53... BoJ's board member Shirai gave the following statements:
'BoJ sees long-term inflation expectations in moderate rising trend, must closely monitor whether this trend will continue;
transforming public's deflation mindset will take some time but positive developments gradually starting to spread;
BoJ's goal of "sustaining 2% inflation in stable manner" is equivalent to stabilizing long-term inflation expectations at around 2%;
assigning too many objectives to monetary policy without allocating sufficient policy tools may be potentially problematic.'
Japan June trade balance -822.2 bln yen, exports -2.0% y/y n imports +8.4%.
24 Jul 2014 01:54GMT
AUD/USD - .... Despite Aussie's retreat from yesterday's high of 0.9463 ahead of Asian open, price staged a strong rebound from 0.9435 after release of better-than-expected China HSBC manufacturing PMI and rose to 0.9470.
China HSBC July flash PMI came in at 18-month high of 52.0.
Thursdaywill see NZ RBNZ rate decision, trade balance, imports, exports, Japan exports, imports, manufacturing PMI, China HSBC manufacturing PMI, France manufacturing PMI, services PMI, Germany manufacturing PMI, services PMI, EU manufacturing PMI, services PMI, Italy retail sales, UK retail sales, U.S. jobless claims, manufacturing PMI and new home sales.
AceTraderFx Jul 24: Intra-Day Market Moving News & Views USD/JPY
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
24 Jul 2014 05:48GMT
USD/JPY - Statement from BoJ's Kuroda :
'some medium, long-term challenges need to be addressed in Asia, including demographic changes, risks of excessive credit expansion and destabilisation of financial system;
in Japan, the potential growth rate has been pushed down by a decline in labor input;
prompt action to address demographic challenges is needed to preserve growth momentum of domestic demand-led economy in Asia;
current global accommodative financial conditions raise the possibility of unhealthy global capital flows into Asian economies;
important to establish regional safety nets in Asia to prepare for possible external shocks;
Asian countries should prevent excessive expansion of credit to ensure domestic demand-led growth;
a large decline in real estate prices could cause NPLS to rise in many countries and hamper growth.'