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AceTraderFx May 23: Forex Market Outlook on Asian Exotics USD/SGD
DAILY USD/SGD OUTLOOK - 1.2523
23 May 2014 07:04GMT
Despite the sideways move after early retreat fm
last Fri's 1.2541 top to 1.2491 (Mon), bullishness
remains for rise fm 1.2456 (May) to head to 1.2569.
Buy usd on dips for 1.2540 1st n only below 1.24
91 sup may risk stronger retracement to 1.2477/82.
STRATEGY : Buy at 1.2500
OBJECTIVE : 1.2540
STOP-LOSS : 1.2480
RES : 1.2541/1.2569/1.2596
SUP : 1.2491/1.2484/1.2451
AceTraderFx May 23: Daily Technical Outlook on GBP/USD
DAILY TECHNICAL OUTLOOK ON GBP/USD
Last Update At 22 May 2014 23:54GMT
Trend Daily Chart
Up
Daily Indicators
Turning down
21 HR EMA
1.6870
55 HR EMA
1.6865
Trend Hourly Chart
Sideways
Hourly Indicators
Neutral
13 HR RSI
47
14 HR DMI
+ve
Daily Analysis
Choppy trading to continue
Resistance
1.6997 - May 6 high
1.6938 - May 9 high
1.6923 - Wed's high
Support
1.6852 - Y'day's low
1.6802 - Tue's low
1.6784 - Last Fri's low in Europe
. GBP/USD - 1.6867... Cable went through a mini 'roller-coaster' session on
Thur as despite a brief rise to 1.6917 in European morning, release of U.K. Q1
GDP which was in line with forecast disappointed the market n the pound swiftly reterated to 1.6862 n then later to 1.6852 in NY afternoon b4 recovering.
. Looking at the daily picture, although early rally abv res at 1.6903 (last
week's high) to 1.6923 on Wed signals correction fm May's near 5-year peak at 1.6997 (Reuters) has ended at last Thur's 4-week trough at 1.6732, aforesaid retreat fm 1.6917 suggests further choppy trading below 1.6997 wud continue n a stronger pullback twd 1.6802 may be seen, however, reckon sup at 1.6784 wud hold n upside bias remains for another rise next week after consolidation but a daily close abv 1.6923 is needed to bring a re-test 1.6997 next week. Looking ahead, abv 1.6997 wud confirm MT uptrend fm 1.4228 (2010 trough) has once again resumed n yield gain twd the key daily res at 1.7044 (Aug 2009).
. In view of abv analysis, buying cable on dips for another rise twd 1.6823 is still favoured today. On the downside, only a firm break of 1.6782/84 wud abort present mildly bullish scenario n may risk subsequent weakness twd 1.6732.
AceTraderFx May 23:The greenback strengthens broadly after upbeat U.S. data
Market Review - 22/05/2014 22:41GMT
The greenback strengthens broadly after upbeat U.S. data
The greenback turned broadly higher against the other major currencies on Thursday as positive U.S. data showed that U.S. jobless claims near the lowest level since 2007 last week, while manufacturing sector expanded at a faster rate than expected this month and housing market was also regaining momentum.
Versus the yen, dollar rose above Wednesday's high of 101.63 to 101.76 in Asia as data showed that Chinese manufacturing activity improved in May and dampened safe haven demand for the Japanese currency. Later, cross-buying in yen pressured price to 101.47 in Europe before rising to a fresh session high of 101.82 in New York afternoon after the positive U.S. economic reports.
The preliminary reading of China's HSBC manufacturing index rose to a five month high of 49.7 this month.
U.S. Labor Department showed that the number of people filing for initial jobless benefits last week increased by 28,000 to 326,000 from the previous week's revised total of 298,000, which was the lowest reading since May 2007. In a separate report, Markit said that its preliminary U.S. manufacturing index rose to 56.2 this month from a final reading of 55.4 in April, and ahead of expectations of 55.5.
The National Association of Realtors said U.S. existing home sales increased 1.3% in April to an annual rate of 4.65 million units. Although the data came in worse than expected of a rise 2.2% to 4.69 million last month, the increase indicated that the housing market is regaining momentum.
The single currency ended the day lower on Thursday due to renewed broad-based strength in greenback. During the day, although euro rebounded from 1.3654 to 1.3688 (also Wednesday's New York high) in European morning as data showed that the recovery in the euro zone private sector continued in May, failure to penetrate this resistance and renewed broad-based rebound in dollar knocked euro down to a fresh session low at 1.3645 in New York afternoon.
The euro zone flash manufacturing purchasing managers' index slid to 52.5 this month, from 53.4 in April. The bloc's services PMI rose to a 35-month high of 53.5 up from 53.1 in April. Analysts had expected the index to tick down to 53.0. Earlier, data showed Germany's manufacturing PMI slid to 52.9 from 54.1 in April, while the services PMI improved to 56.4 from 54.7 last month.
Cable went through a mini 'roller-coaster' session on Thursday as despite a brief jump to 1.6917 in European morning, release of unchanged U.K. Q1 disappointed the market and price swiftly tanked to 1.6862 and then lower to 1.6852 in New York.
The Office for National Statistics confirmed that U.K. gross domestic product grew 0.8% in the first quarter, unchanged from its preliminary estimate and in line with forecasts. The annual rate of growth was unchanged at 3.1%.
Data to be released on Friday :
New Zealand ANZ consumer confidence, Germany GDP, exports, imports, Ifo business climate, Ifo current assessment, Ifo expectations, Italy retail sales, Canada CPI, U.S. new home sales.
AceTraderFX May 26: Intra-Day Market Moving News & Views & data to be released today
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
25 May 2014 23:09GMT
EUR/USD - 1.3627.. On election results of the European Parliament, Reuters reported earlier Exit polls show surge in support for far right, Euroskeptics in European Parliament election.
Centre-right parties estimated to top European parliament vote with 211 seats out of 751.
Reuters reports according to official projections, centre-right parties are estimated to top European parliament vote with 211 seats out of 751.
Socialists seen in second place with 193 seats, Liberals third with 74,Greens 58, far left 47 n Eurosceptic parties seen winning about 129 seats in European parliament.
Reuters then reported Britain's Eurosceptic UKIP party has won gains in elections to the European Parliament, so far polling more strongly than PM David Cameron's Conservative party n the opposition Labour party, early results showed on Sunday.
With results for 10 out of 73 seats declared, the UK Independence Party, which wants Britain to leave the European Union, had won 4 seats, the opposition Labour party 3 seats, and the Conservatives 3 seats.
25 May 2014 22:57GMT
NZD/USD - 0.8545.. Ratings agency Fitch said New Zealand Subnational ratings still underpinned by institutional framework.
Fitch Ratings says in a newly-published report that the overall strength of the New Zealand institutional framework remains a major positive credit factor for subnationals.
Data to be released this week :
New Zealand trade balance, exports, imports, Germany Gfk consumer confidence, import price index, UK Spring Bank holiday, Nationwide house prices and U.S. Memorial day holiday on Monday.
Japan business confidence, Swiss GDP, trade balance, Germany retail sales, France consumer confidence, Italy consumer confidence, UK BBA loans, U.S. durable goods, house prices, services PMI and consumer confidence on Tuesday.
Australia Westpac leading index, China industrial profits, France PPI, Germany unemployment change, unemployment rate, Italy business confidence, economic sentiment, EU economic confidence, industrial confidence, consumer confidence, services confidence, business climate, UK CBI sales and U.S. MBA mortgage applications on Wednesday.
Japan retail sales, Australia home sales, private capital expenditure, China leading index, UK business barometer, Canada current account, U.S. GDP annualized, personal consumption, GDP price index, core PCE, jobless claims and pending home sales on Thursday.
New Zealand building permits, Japan jobless rate, household spending, national CPI, Tokyo CPI, industrial production, housing starts, construction orders, Swiss KOF leading indicator, Italy PPI, CPI, Canada GDP, U.S. personal income, personal spending, PCE and University of Michigan consumer confidence on Friday.
AceTraderFx May 26: Daily Technical Outlook on EUR/USD
WEEKLY TECHNICAL OUTLOOK ON EUR/USD
Last Update At 25 May 2014 23:26GMT
Trend Daily Chart
Sideways
Daily Indicators
Falling
21 HR EMA
1.3634
55 HR EMA
1.3650
Trend Hourly Chart
Down
Hourly Indicators
Rising fm o/s
13 HR RSI
41
14 HR DMI
-ve
Daily Analysis
Consolidation b4 decline resumes
Resistance
1.3734 - Last Tue's high
1.3688 - Last Wed's NY res n Y'day's high
1.3653 - Last Fri's Asian high
Support
1.3615 - Intra-day fresh 3-month low in NZ
1.3563 - Feb 27 low
1.3518 - 38.2% r 1.2745-1.3995
. EUR/USD - 1.3628... Although euro gained respite initially last week b4 falling again on renewed cross-selling in euro, price penetrated previous 1.3648 low to 1.3635 Wed. Despite a brief recovery, euro tanked on downbeat German & EZ mfg & services PMIs, price weakened to a fresh 3-year trough of 1.3616 on Fri.
. Looking at the daily picture, last week's breach of 1.3648 to 1.3616 confirms decline fm May's 2-1/2 year peak at 1.3995 has once again resumed n this move signals uptrend fm 2012 bottom (Jul) has made a top there, the single currency is en route to 1.3518, this is a 'minimum' 38.% r of the intermediate rise fm 1.2745 to 1.3995, then next daily chart obj. at 1.3477 (2014 low in Feb), having said that, as daily indicators wud be in oversold territory on such move, reckon 1.3370 (50% r fm 1.2745) wud contain weakness. So selling on recovery in anticipation of decline to aforesaid downside targets is recommended n only a daily close abv 1.3734 wud dampen present bearish scenario on euro.
. Today, euro briefly weakened to 1.3615 in NZ after preliminary European Parliament elections were announced n with price currently trading below 21-hr n 55-emas, selling on recovery is recommended n only abv 1.3653/59 risks 1.3688.
AceTraderFX May 27: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views USD/JPY NZD/USD
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
27 May 2014 01:56GMT
USD/JPY- 101.93
Despite yesterday's initial gain to 102.05 on improved risk appetite due to the rise in Nikkei-225 index, the greenback retreated to 101.84 in thin trading conditions as U.K. n U.S. were closed on Monday.
Bids are now located at 101.80-75 and more at 101.65-60 with stops only seen below 101.60.
On the upside, offers are now tipped at 102.05-15 and more at 102.30-35.
A piece of yesterday's news worth mentioning again, Bank of Japan Deputy Governor Kikuo Iwata said in a speech in Tokyo on Monday that an economy "with low real growth rates under mild inflation" is possible.
U.S. will release its durable goods orders, house price purchase index, Markit US services PMI n consumer confidence data at 12:30GMT, 13:00GMT, 13:45GMT n 14:00GMT respectively.
27 May 2014 00:06GMT
NZD/USD - 0.8564
New Zealand Institute of Economic Research (NZIER) says slumping house sales 'significant risk' to outlook; sees economy expanding 3.5% in 2014; says RBNZ may pause rate hikes after June if growth slows.
Data to be released on Tuesday:
Japan business confidence, Swiss GDP, trade balance, Germany retail sales, France consumer confidence, Italy consumer confidence, UK BBA loans, U.S. durable goods, house prices, services PMI and consumer confidence.
AceTraderFx May 27: Daily Technical Outlook on USD/JPY
DAILY USD/JPY TECHNICAL OUTLOOK
Last Update At 26 May 2014 23:22GMT
Trend Daily Chart
Sideways
Daily Indicators
Turning up
21 HR EMA
101.91
55 HR EMA
101.84
Trend Hourly Chart
Near term up
Hourly Indicators
Neutral
13 HR RSI
53
14 HR DMI
+ve
Daily Analysis
Consolidation with upside bias
Resistance
102.86 - 61.8% r of 104.13-100.81
102.36 - May 13 high
102.12 - May 15 high
Support
101.60 - Last Fri's low
101.35 - Hourly sup
101.10 - Mon's low
. USD/JPY - 101.92 ... Although the greenback climbed marginally abv Fri's 102.01 high to 102.05 shortly after Asian open on Mon due to initial gain in the Nikkei, cross-unwinding in yen quickly pushed price lower, dlr retreated to 101.87 n later to 101.84 in holiday-thinned North American session.
. Let's look at daily picture, as mentioned in prev. update, dlr's rebound fm last Wed's fresh 3-1/2 month trough at 100.81 to as high as 102.02 signals decline fm Apr's peak at 104.13 has indeed formed a temporary trough there n further choppy trading abv 2014 bottom at 100.76 (Feb 04 low) is in store with upside bias for gain to next chart obj. at 102.36, n then perhaps twd 102.86, being a 'dynamic' 61.8% r of the entire fall fm 104.13 to 100.81, however, as hourly oscillators wud display 'bearish divergences' on such a move, price shud falter below daily res at 103.02 (May's high) this week n yield strg retreat.
. Today, y'day's narrow movement shud spill into Asian morning session n consolidation below 102.05 wud continue, reckon Fri's low at 101.60 wud contain pullback n yield resumption of said near term upmove fm 100.81, bearish divergences on hourly indicators shud cap price below 102.47 (50% r fm 104.13-100.81).
AceTraderFX May 28: Intra-Day Market Moving News, Views and data to be released today
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
28 May 2014 01:13GMT
USD/MAJ
Fed's Lockhart says:
Labor market tightening in certain industries and regions, points to skilled trades in places like Louisiana's oil sector;
Some aspects of labor market may be approaching full employment, others remain very weak;
No strong preference whether taper ends in October or December;
Important to global system that U.S. follow all BASEL requirements;
Fed still in early days of testing new tools for controlling future interest rates;
Inflation above 2 percent should not be ruled out, says a measured overshoot is ok up to 2.5 percent;
Fed should continue reinvesting bond proceeds until it begins to raise rates.
"considers long-term neutral Fed funds rate at around 4%; does not believe economy will be weak over the long run; does not believe there is a skills mismatch between jobs and job-seekers, feels stronger growth will absorb labor slack."
Economy should rebound to near 3 percent growth in Q2 after poor start;
Despite optimism, Fed still needs patience, "confirming evidence" of sustainable growth before lifting interest rates;
No rush to raise rates, sees no increase until second half of 2015;
Transition to rate increases will need careful execution and clear communication;
Labor market still slack and well short of full employment;
Improvement in labor outlook will be steady but not "dramatic";
Inflation will increase to the Fed's target only over the medium term.
Data to be released on Wednesday:
Australia Westpac leading index, China industrial profits YTD, Switzerland GDP, Germany import price index, unemployment rate, unemployment change, France PPI, Italy business confidence, economic conference, euro zone economic conference, industrial conference, consumer conference, service conference, business climate indicator and U.K. CBI reported sales.
AceTraderFx May 28: Daily Market outlook on USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK USD/JPY - 101.93
Update Time: 28 May 2014 01:33GMT
The greenback extended up move from last Wednesday's 3-1/2 month low at 100.81 to 102.14 on improved risk appetite due to dollar's broad-based strength after the release of robust U.S. economic data, suggesting a stronger retracement of decline from April's high at 104.13 would be seen and further gain to 102.36 resistance is envisaged, however, reckon 102.86 should cap upside and yield retreat later.
On the downside, only a breach of 101.60 support would signal the recovery is over instead and may bring weakness to 101.35 support level.
AceTraderFx May 29: Intra-Day Market Moving News & Views & data to be released today
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
29 May 2014 01:32GMT
USD/JPY - 101.70
New on BOJ's Shirai speech:
Positive cycle of output, income, expenditure likely to continue in Japan;
Downside risks subsiding somewhat but still need to be mindful of them;
Japan prices likely to gradually rise around 4Q 2014;
Will take some time for medium-, long-term inflation expectations of households to rise as a trend;
Downside risks on Japan price outlook subsiding somewhat, but still need monitoring;
Must scrutinise economy, price moves after second sales tax hike to see whether 2 pct inflation will be sustained stably;
My economy, price forecasts are made on assumption QQE will be maintained beyond 2015;
Feel Japan will need more than 2 years to achieve 2 pct inflation under current flexible inflation targeting;
Expectations of households to rise as a trend.
00:51GMT
Chinese Premier Li Keqiang says will adopt timely and moderate "fine tuning" of economic policy;
fundamental fiscal and monetary policy will remain intact.
Data to be released on Thursday :
Japan retail sales, Australia HIA new home sales, private capital expenditure, China leading index, Canada current account balance, U.S. GDP, personal consumption, core PCE, initial jobless claims, pending home sales.