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AceTraderFx May 19:Weekly Outlook on Asian Exotic USD/IDR
WEEKLY USD/IDR OUTLOOK - 11360
19 May 2014 04:25GMT
Last week's sharp sell off signals recovery from
Mar's low at 11255 has ended at 11655 (Apr) and MT
fall should resume for weakness to 11255 later.
Sell on recovery with stop as indicated, break
signal temp. top made n risk gain to 11520.
STRATEGY : Sell at 11400
OBJECTIVE : 11260
STOP-LOSS : 11470
RES : 11465/11520/11655
SUP : 11300/11255/11100
AceTraderFx May 19: Weekly Technical Outlook on USD/JPY
WEEKLY USD/JPY TECHNICAL OUTLOOK
Last Update At 18 May 2014 23:15GMT
Trend Daily Chart
Sideways
Daily Indicators
Falling
21 HR EMA
101.53
55 HR EMA
101.64
Trend Hourly Chart
Down
Hourly Indicators
Turning up
13 HR RSI
51
14 HR DMI
+VE
Daily Analysis
Consolidation b4 one more fall
Resistance
102.36 - Mon's high
102.12 - Last Thur's high
101.68 - Last Fri's high
Support
101.31 - Last Thur's low
101.20 - Mar 03 low
100.76 - Feb 04 low
. USD/JPY - 101.55.. Despite dlr's initial gain to 102.36 last Tue, weakness in the Nikkei n falling U.S. treasury yields triggered broad-based buying of yen, the pair fell to a near 2-month trough of 101.31 b4 staging a recovery.
. On the daily picture, dlr's brief drop to 101.31 suggests the broad side-ways move inside recent established broad range of 101.32-103.02 has possibly ended with a downside break, a firm breach of 101.31/32 sup wud add credence to this bearish view, then decline fm 104.13 (Apr's high) wud pressure dlr twd 2014 bottom at 100.76 in Feb., below there anytime wud confirm MT decline fm Jan's 5-year peak at 105.45 has finally resumed n yield weakness twd 99.60 in Jun, this is a 'natural' 50% r of the LT intermediate uptrend fm 93.75-105.45. So selling dlr on recovery is the way to go (our weekly strategy is currently holding a short position). Only abv 102.36 prolongs consolidation, risks gain twd 103.02.
. Today, although Fri's rebound fm 101.36 to 101.36 suggests choppy trading abv said last Thu's 101.31 low wud continue, as long as 101.84 (50% r fm 102.36) holds, one more fall to 101.00/10 is likely. Only abv 102.12 aborts, 102.36.
AceTraderFX May 20: Intra-Day Market Moving News & Views & data to be released today
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views USD/JPY AUS/USD
20 May 2014 02:07GMT
USD/JPY - 101.57... The greenback fell to a fresh 3-month low at 101.10 against the Japanese yen yesterday on renewed risk aversion due to the sell off in Nikkei-225 index, however, short-covering together with the rise in Japanese equities today following the rebound in global stock markets lifted the pair n price rebound to 101.60 in Asia. Bids are now located at 101.45/40 n more at 101.30-25 with mixture of bids n stops seen at 101.00 level.
The Federal Reserve will release minutes of its April 29-30 meeting on May 21. Fed Chair Janet Yellen is scheduled to give the New York University Commencement speech on the same day.
20 May 2014 01:33GMT
AUS/USD - 0.9311
RBA releases its minutes and said low rates appropriate for some time, rest of minutes as follow :
board considered current low rates to be appropriate for some time yet;
expansionary policy setting having expected effects on economy;
demand for labour remained subdued, likely to stay so for some time;
inflation consistent with target, forecast to remain so for next few years;
board noted overall growth in coming quarters likely to be below trend;
saw growth in domestic costs contained due in part to spare capacity in labour market;
forward-looking indicators improving but point to moderate jobs growth in months ahead;
recent data pointed to strong growth in dwelling investment in first half of 2014;
volume of iron ore and coal exports had risen strongly in recent months;
retail sales growth appeared to have moderated somewhat more recently;
pointed to some signs that recent slowing in china could be temporary;
Data to be release on Tuesday:
Australia Conference board leading index, RBA meeting minutes, Japan all industry activity index, leading index CI, machinery tool orders, Italy industrial orders, current account, Germany PPI, U.K. CPI, RPI, PPI input and PPI output, ONS house price, Canada wholesale trade sales.
AceTraderFx May 20: Daily Technical Outlook on GBP/USD
DAILY TECHNICAL OUTLOOK ON GBP/USD
Last Update At 20 May 2014 00:13GMT
Trend Daily Chart
Up
Daily Indicators
Turning down
21 HR EMA
1.6819
55 HR EMA
1.6815
Trend Hourly Chart
Sideways
Hourly Indicators
Falling
13 HR RSI
46
14 HR DMI
-ve
Daily Analysis
Marginal rise b4 strg retreat
Resistance
1.6903 - Last Mon's high
1.6875 - Last Tue's high
1.6845 - Y'day's high
Support
1.6784 - Last Fri's low in Europe
1.6732 - Last Thur's low
1.6657 - Apr 15 low
. GBP/USD- 1.6815... Cable rebounded after retreating fm 1.6833 to 1.6806 in European morning on Mon n price later rose abv later Fri's high of 1.6841 to 1.6845 ahead of NY open, however, lack of follow through buying prompted profit-taking there n cable retreated to 1.6812 b4 moving sideways in NY afternoon.
. Looking at the hourly n daily charts, although y'day's break of last Fri's high to 1.6845 signals decline fm May's near 5-year peak at 1.6996 has formed a minor low there n another day of choppy trading wud continue, as the last week's breach of indicated sup at 1.6762 strongly suggests MT uptrend fm 1.4228 (2010 trough) has formed a temporary top at 1.6996, downside bias remains n 1.6895/03, being the 'dynamic' 61.8% r of 1.6996-1.6732 n last Mon's high respectively, wud hold n yield another decline later this week. Below 1.6784 (hourly sup) anytime wud suggest recovery is over, 1.6732 again. Looking ahead, below said sup wud indicate the pound is en route to 1.6560, this is a 'minimum' 38.2% r of the intermediate MT rise fm 1.5854 (Nov 2013 low) later this month.
. Today, selling cable on intra-day recovery is still favoured n only abv 1.6903 wud abort this bearish scenario n risk gain to 1.6938.
AceTraderFx May 21: Daily Market Outlook on USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on USD/JPY - 101.27
Update Time: 21 May 2014 01:24 GMT
Dollar retreated after meeting renewed selling at 101.60 in Asian morning on Tuesday suggests the recovery from Monday's fresh 3-1/2 month high at 101.10 has possibly ended and erratic decline from April's high at 104.13 should resume for weakness to said level, below would encourage for a re-test of this year's low at 100.76 (February).
On the upside, only above 101.83 (being 38.2% are of intermediate decline from 103.02) would signal temporary low is made and risk stronger bounce to 102.12 and 102.36 resistance.
AceTraderFX May 21: Intra-Day Market Moving News & Views & data to be released today
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
21 May 2014 02:42GMT
USD/JPY - 101.25.. Breaking news on Reuters, BoJ has kept its rate unchanged as widely expected.
Following are the accompanied statements :
BoJ keeps views on exports unchanged, saying they have recently leveled off more or less;
CAPEX increasingly moderately;
BoJ revises up assessment on capital expenditure;
Economy continues to recover moderately as a trend, keeps assessment unchanged.
01:54GMT
USD/JPY - 101.25 .. The greenback met renewed selling at 101.60 (Asia) on Tuesday n ratcheted lower to 101.19 in NY b4 trading sideways.
Offers are now tipped at 101.45-60 with stops seen above 101.70.
On the downside, some bids are located above 101.10 with mixture of bids and stops seen at 101.00 level.
New York Federal Reserve President William Dudley said on Monday that 'the economy was poised for stronger growth and inflation should "drift upwards" towards the Fed's 2 percent goal but a swift climb in inflation was unlikely.'
Today's focus is on Bank of Japan rate decision at around 03:00-03:30GMT. The Bank of Japan is widely expected to keep monetary policy steady, however, economists are expecting BOJ may raise its assessment on capital expenditure, reassured by growing evidence the economy can withstand the pain from a sales tax hike without additional monetary stimulus.
Governor Haruhiko Kuroda will deliver speech after the rate decision.
Market players expected Kuroda will reiterate his optimism that Japan is on course to meet the bank's 2% inflation target and may dampen already diminishing market expectations of near-term monetary easing.
BoJ will release its monetary policy statement at 06:30GMT.
Data to be released on Wednesday:
Australia Wedspac consumer confidence, Japan trade data, BoJ rate decision, BoJ monetary policy statement; euro zone current account, consumer confidence, BoE minutes, BoE MPC vote outcome, U.K. retail sales, FOMC minutes for April 29-30 meeting.
Acetraderfx May 21: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views GBP/USD
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
21 May 2014 08:37GMT
GBP/USD - 1.6913... BoE releases its meeting minutes, which state 'MPC voted 9-0 to keep rates unchanged; for some MPC members, decision on whether to raise rates becoming more balanced; all members agree need to see more evidence of slack reducing before raising rates; considerable uncertainty n range of views about BoE's 1-1.5% of GDP estimate of slack; cud be argued that the more gradual the intended rise in rates, the earlier BoE needs to start; but premature rise in rates cud also risk a substantial cost in lost output; raising rates slowly carries greater risk of housing mkt imbalances, but mitigating this is FPC role; sterling above top of post-crisis range, mkt contacts note due to stronger growth in UK than elsewhere; nearly all sterling appreciation likely to be passed into lower prices, but firms may instead increase profit margins.'
Cable edges higher ahead of Asian lunch break in tandem with eur/usd. Sterling was bot broadly at European open on Tue as st specs were looking for U.K. Apr inflation data to show a small increase. Although cable briefly jumped to 1.6870 (Reuters) after CPI ticked higher abv prev. reading of 1.6% to 1.8% (consensus was 1.7%), however, profit-taking quickly emerged, price retreated to 1.6822 at NY open n ratcheted higher to 1.6849 b4 moving narrowly in NY afternoon.
Although Asian traders are on the sideline as market keenly awaits the release of BoE MPC minutes n the Apr retail sales, the retail sales data are expected to show strg growth (MoM ex-auto forecast is 0.5% n YoY ex-auto is 5.4% vs prev. readings of -0.4% %& 4.2% resp.), so cable is likely to maintain a biddish tone into the figure n we may well see a repeat of y'day's price action i.e briefly higher n then coming off after the release.
Bids are noted at 1.6830-20 n more below with stops reported below 1.6800. Offers are tipped at 1.6860/70 n more abv with some stops touted abv 1.6900.
AceTraderFX May 22: Intra-Day Market Moving News & Views & data to be released today
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
22 May 2014 02:16GMT
USD/JPY - 101.46
Despite yesterday's resumption of decline from April's high at 104.13 to a fresh 3-1/2 month low at 100.81 in European morning due to active cross buying in Japanese yen, subsequent rebound on active short-covering after holding above this year's low at 100.76 (February) suggests choppy trading would continue. U.S. dollar later rebounded to 101.63 in New York after the release of FOMC minutes b4 trading sideways. Bids are now reported at 101.40-30 n more at 101.20-10 with stops only seen below 101.00. On the upside, mixture of offers n stops is tipped at 101.70 n more offers are noted at 101.90-00.
U.S. dollar showed muted reaction after early release of Markit Japan manufacturing PMI data which rose to 49.9 in May versus the previous reading of 49.4.
22 May 2014 01:50GMT
AUD/USD - 0.9248
The Australian dollar jumped to 0.9265 (Reuters) after the release of much stronger-than-expected China's HSBC manufacturing PMI data.
Data to be released on Thursday:
New Zealand ANZ consumer confidence, Japan Markit/JMMA manufacturing PMI, China HSBA China manufacturing PMI, France business confidence, Markit France manufacturing PMI, Markit France Service PMI, Germany Markit/BME Germany manufacturing PMI, Markit Germany service PMI, euro zone Markit euro zone manufacturing PMI, Markit euro zone service PMI, U.K. GDP, PSNCR, private consumption, public sector net borrowing, exports and imports, CBI trends total orders, Canada retail sales, U.S. initial jobless claims, Markit U.S. manufacturing PMI, existing homes sales, leading index.
AceTraderFx May 22: Daily Technical Outlook on USD/JPY
DAILY USD/JPY TECHNICAL OUTLOOK
Last Update At 22 May 2014 00:45GMT
Trend Daily Chart
Sideways
Daily Indicators
Rising
21 HR EMA
101.34
55 HR EMA
101.34
Trend Hourly Chart
Sideways
Hourly Indicators
Rising
13 HR RSI
60
14 HR DMI
+ve
Daily Analysis
Consolidation b4 decline resumes
Resistance
102.36 - Last Tue's high
102.12 - Last Thur's high
101.63 - Y'day's high
Support
101.10 - Mon's low
100.81 - Y'day's fresh 3-1/2 month low
100.76 - Feb 04 low
. USD/JPY - 101.45... Although dlr fell fm Tue's Asian 101.60 high to a
fresh 3-1/2 month low at 100.81 in European morning on Wed after BoJ refrained
fm adding further stimulus measures, usd's broad-based rebound in NY lifted
price to 101.55 n then climbed to 101.63 after FOMC minutes b4 easing.
. Looking at the hourly n daily charts, dlr's rebound after y'day's exten-
sion of decline fm Apr's peak at 104.13 to 100.81 suggests a temporary low has
been made n a few days of choppy trading abv 2014 bottom at 100.76 (Feb 04 low)
is in store, however, reckon res at 102.12 wud cap present rebound n another dec
line is still envisaged after consolidation. Below 100.76/81 anytime wud confirm
MT decline fm Jan's 5-year peak at 105.45 has finally resumed n yield weakness
twd 99.60 in Jun, this is a 'natural' 50% r of the LT intermediate uptrend fm
93.75-105.45.
. In view of abv analysis, we're turning long on dips today in anticipation
of further gain to 101.90/00 but aforesaid res at 101.12 shud remain intact. On
the downside, only below 100.76/81 wud abort near term bullish bias on the dlr n
risk weakness to 100.20/30 b4 correction occurs.
AceTraderFX May 23: Intra-Day Market Moving News & Views & data to be released today
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
23 May 2014 01:58GMT
USD/JPY - 101.75 ... The greenback ratcheted higher to 101.86 in Tokyo morning due to improved risk appetite as Nikkei-225 index rose by 125 points to 11463 following the rise in global stock markets. Bids are now located at 101.70-60 n more at 101.50 whilst offers are tipped at 101.90-00.
The Bank of Japan's chief executor of its unprecedented monetary stimulus, Masayoshi Amamiya, is expected by central bank and Abe administration officials to be reappointed to a rare second term, according to people familiar with the discussions.
Amamiya has helped shape key policies as the central bank battles deflation in the world? third-biggest economy. After less than a year as Osaka branch manager, Amamiya, 58, got his old job back as head of the monetary affairs department in March 2013, about two weeks before Kuroda unveiled record easing on April 4.
22 May 2014 20:03GMT
Fed's Williams says 'U.S. monetary policy "on road to normal"; normalizing will be gradual, Fed will be flexible; will be 'challenges' when Fed does begin to raise rates; challenges include added risks to financial stability from five years of easy policy; housing an "area of concern," but expect improvement; sees 3 pct U.S. GDP growth in 2014 and 2015; sees unemployment hitting 5.25 pct-5.5 pct "natural" rate in 2016; wage growth should pick up as jobless rate falls; economic slack is main reason for abnormally low inflation; sees return to 2 pct; would take a 'substantial shift' in outlook to derail QE3 taper; raising fed's policy rate is still "a good way off".'
Data to be released on Friday :
New Zealand ANZ consumer confidence, Germany GDP, exports, imports, Ifo business climate, Ifo current assessment, Ifo expectations, Italy retail sales, Canada CPI, U.S. new home sales.