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AceTradeFx Dec 10 : Daily Outlook on Asian Exotics USD/KRW
DAILY USD/KRW OUTLOOK - 1052.5
10 Dec 2013 05:50GMT
Usd's breach of y'day's low at 1052.0 suggests
LT downtrend has resumed n downside bias wud be
seen for further weakness to 1048.6.
Hold short with stop as indicated n only abv
1056.1 aborts n risks retracement to 1059.8.
STRATEGY : Short at 1053.4
POSITION : Short at 1053.4
OBJECTIVE : 1049.0
STOP-LOSS : 1055.5
RES : 1054.5/1056.1/1059.8
SUP :1050.0/1048.6/1045.0
AceTraderFx Dec 11: USD drops versus the Jap yen on retreat in U.S. treasury yields
Market Review - 10/12/2013 22:34GMT
U.S. dollar drops versus the Japanese yen on retreat in U.S. treasury yields
U.S. dollar retreated especially against the Japanese yen as U.S. treasury yields and stock markets eased on a growing view that the Federal Reserve will decide to scale back its economic stimulus unless more robust U.S. economic data coming out.
The greenback traded with a firm undertone in Australia on Tuesday and climbed briefly above last Tuesday's 6-month high at 103.38 to 103.40 in Asian morning, however, active profit-taking there together with cross-unwinding in Japanese yen (eur/jpy fell sharply to 141.29 after rising to a fresh 5-year peak at 142.18) capped dollar's upside and the pair retreated to a session low at 102.58 in New York. Japan Finance Minister Taro Aso said 'can't say if FY14 new bond issuance will exceed FY13 level.' Source from Kyodo told reporters that Japan plans 2-step tax increases for high income earners.
Euro continued last week's rally and maintained a firm undertone on Tuesday. The single currency rose to a session high at 1.3795 in New York before retreating on profit-taking together with cross selling in euro versus the Japanese yen.
ECB's Draghi said 'central banks should concentrate on price stability over medium term; must strengthen financial system by increasing capital, liquidity buffers; creation of banking union essential step in increasing resilience of euro area; high trust by citizens most important guarantee of central bank independence; central banks must get used to closer scrutiny, especially with use of non standard tools; credibility is closely connected to staying with mandate; ECB has consistently delivered on its price stability mandate; medium term inflation expectations remain firmly anchored; several reasons why situation in euro zone stability different from that of Japan 20 years ago; delivering price stability has been more challenging in recent years due to financial fragmentation in euro zone; ECB has gained time for other actors to play their part in delivering reform; crucial that European countries complete structural economic reforms.'
ECB's Makuch said 'does not see strong deflation pressures, does not see deflation ahead; ECB has enough tools to adjust policy if needed, no need to discuss individual tools; inflation to return toward target in longer term.'
The British pound continued Monday's rally due to sterling-supportive comments by BoE Governor Mark Carney in a conference at the Economic Club in New York. BOE's governor Mark Carney said 'concerned U.S. fiscal policies posing difficulties in short term without longer-term benefits; Europe situation vastly improved, still lacks dynamism stimulus; true recoveries beginning after core of system repaired; stimulus can create risks including in housing market; needs to provide a lot of stimulus to U.K.' Cable strengthened to 1.6468 in Asian morning on Tuesday and then retreated to 1.6420.
In other news, a senior Senate Democratic aide said 'the U.S. Senate is likely to vote next week on President Barack Obama's choice of Janet Yellen to be the next chief of the Federal Reserve.' Yellen, the Fed's vice chair, is widely expected to win Senate confirmation, which would make her the first woman to lead the U.S. central bank. Last month, the Senate Banking Committee approved her nomination on a 14-8 vote. Yellen would replace Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke when his term ends on Jan. 31.
Wednesday will see the release of Australia consumer confidence, machinery orders, domestic CGPI, Germany CPI, HICP, France current account and U.S. Fed budget.
AceTraderFx Dec 11: Daily Outlook on Minors/ Crosses NZD/USD
DAILY NZD/USD OUTLOOK - 0.8303
10 Dec 2013 23:30GMT
Kiwi's retreat after rising to 0.8336 y'day, as
long as 0.8258 holds, upside bias remains for ex-
tending upmove fm 0.8085 (last Fri) to 0.8407.
Trade fm long side with stop as indicated, below
wud risk stronger pullback to 0.8234.
STRATEGY : Long at 0.8300
POSITION :Long at 0.8300
OBJECTIVE : 0.8380
STOP-LOSS : 0.8255
RES : 0.8336/0.8350/0.8407
SUP : 0.8258/0.8234/0.8179
AceTraderFx Dec 11: Daily Outlook on Asian Exotic USD/KRW
DAILY USD/KRW OUTLOOK - 1052.7
11 Dec 2013 05:42GMT
Usd's breach of y'day's low at 1051.0 suggests
LT downtrend has resumed n downside bias wud be
seen for further weakness to 1048.6.
Hold short with stop as indicated n only abv
1056.1 aborts n risks retracement to 1059.8.
STRATEGY : Short at 1053.4
POSITION : Short at 1053.4
OBJECTIVE : 1049.0
STOP-LOSS : 1053.4
RES : 1054.5/1056.1/1059.8
SUP :1050.0/1048.6/1045.0
AcetraderFx Dec 17: Dollar mixed against other major rivals ahead of Fed’s meeting
Market Review - 16/12/2013 21:33GMT
Dollar mixed against other major rivals ahead of Fed’s meeting
Dollar traded mixed against other major currencies on Monday as market participants turned their attention to the Federal Reserve's upcoming policy meeting later in the week.
During the day, although the single currency moved sideways after rising to 1.3761 in Asian morning and then dropped briefly from 1.3762 to 1.3737 in European morning, the pair ratcheted higher after the upbeat euro zone data and rose to 1.3800 before retreating in New York morning on renewed dollar's broad-based rebound, dropped to 1.3743 in late New York.
The eurozone's composite output index rose to a three month high at 52.1 in November, indicating that European Central Bank policymakers will not need to step up stimulus measures. It was the fastest increase since April 2011, meanwhile, a separate report showed German's manufacturing index rose to a 30-month peak at 54.2.
Versus the Japanese yen, although dollar continued to move lower from last Friday's 5-year peak at 103.92 in Asia and dropped from 103.32 to 102.65, rebound in Nikkei futures lifted price in European trading and the pair later climbed back to 103.16 before moving around 103.00 level in New York session.
Cable moved sideways in tandem with euro in Asia before rising to 1.6335 in European morning, however, active cross-selling of sterling, especially versus the euro pressured price to 1.6290 before ratcheted higher to 1.6349 ahead of New York open. The pair later dropped again in New York morning on dollar's broad-based rebound and cabel fell to 1.6291 and then moved sideways later in the day.
The Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke, in prepared remarks to an event celebrating the Fed's centennial, said 'the U.S. central bank's legitimacy and independence relies on two-way communication with the public and The Federal Reserve must clearly explain its decisions to Americans and convince them that the policies are in their interest. Bernanke said 'without specifically discussing monetary policy or the U.S. economy.'
In other news, ECB's Draghi spoke at European parliament and said 'economy recovery is fragile; might experience long period of low inflation; money policy will remain accommodative for as long as needed; governing council ready and able to act, if needed; underlying price pressures are subdued; see modest growth in Q4; accommodative ECB money policy stance will support recovery; growth risk are on downside; governing council expects key ECB interest rates to remain at present or lower levels for extended period; monitor money market conditions closely, ready to consider all available instruments; we are fully aware of downward risk that protracted period of low inflation entails; see no risks of financial imbalances related to low interest rate environment; sovereign bonds will be treated risks-free in AQR, will be stressed in EBA stress tests; concerned that SRM decision making may become overly complex, financing arrangements may not be adequate; we are aware of complications of running a scheme akin to funding for lending; do not see deflation in euro zone.'
Data to be release on Tuesday:
Australia RBA minutes, Japan machine orders, U.K. CPI, PPI, RPI, Ons house price, EU Zew economic sentiment, CPI, Germany Zew economic sentiment, Zew current condition, U.S. CPI, current account, retail sales and NAHB housing market index.
AceTraderFx Dec 18: Daily Outlook on Asian Exotic USD/SGD
DAILY USD/SGD OUTLOOK - 1.2574
18 Dec 2013 03:17GMT
Usd's firmness after early breach of 1.2570 sug-
gests upmove fm 1.2343 (Nov) remains in force n fur
ther gain to 1.2603 is seen after consolidation.
Buy on dips with stop as indicated, below wud
risk stronger pullback but 1.2472 sup wud hold.
STRATEGY : Buy at 1.2540
OBJECTIVE : 1.2600
STOP-LOSS : 1.2510
RES : 1.2583/1.2603/1.2617
SUP : 1.2523/1.2472/1.2426
AceTraderFx Dec 18: Daily Outlook on Minors/ Crosses AUD/USD
DAILY AUD/USD OUTLOOK - 0.8918
18 Dec 2013 07:35GMT
Despite y'day's resumption of decline fm 0.9758
(Oct) to 0.8882 in NY, subsequent recovery suggests
initial consolidation wud be seen, reckon previous
strg res at 0.8970 shud cap rebound n yield re-test
of 0.8882 but 2013 low at 0.8848 (Aug) shud hold.
Sell on intra-day recovery for this move n only
a daily close abv 0.8970 risks 0.9010/20.
STRATEGY : Sell at 0.8965
OBJECTIVE : 0.8885
STOP-LOSS : 0.8995
RES : 0.8970/0.9010/0.9069
SUP : 0.8882/0.8848/0.8800
AceTraderFx Dec 19: U.S. dollar fluctuates wildly after the Fed decides to taper...
Market Review - 18/12/2013 14:58GMT
U.S. dollar fluctuates wildly after the Fed decides to taper bond purchases
U.S. dollar fluctuated wildly after the Fed decided to taper bond purchases, reducing the QE toal to 75 billion from 85 billion. Euro rose to 1.3799 before retreating strongly to 1.3702. U.S. dollar dropped to 102.71 versus Japanese yen b4 rallying strongly to 103.67. The British pound tumbled to 1.6344 before rallying to 1.6486.
Fed said ‘to reduce bond buying to $75 billion per month, split as $35 billion MBS and $40 billion treasuries; will hold rates near zero as long as jobless rate above 6.5%, projected inflation not more than 2.5%; likely will keep Fed funds rate at 0-0.25% well past the time jobless rate falls below 6.5%, especially if projected inflation below 2 percent; will likely further reduce pace of asset purchases in measured steps if data shows ongoing improvement in labor market, inflation moving toward long-run objective; fiscal policy restraining economic growth, extent of restraint may be diminishing; risks to economic outlook, labor market have become more nearly balanced; inflation persistently below target could pose risks to economy, monitoring inflation developments carefully for evidence inflation will move back toward its objective. Fed vote in favor of policy was 9:1, Rosengren dissents because believes unemployment rate still elevated, inflation rate well below target; to reduce bond buying to $75 billion in bonds per month, split as $35 billion MBS and $40 billion treasuries.’
The single currency edged higher against the dollar in Asia and hit an intra-day high of 1.3778 in European morning before cross-selling of euro (especially versus sterling) pressured price lower to 1.3732 in New York morning, however, renewed risk appetite lifted price again later in the day and euro climbed back to 1.3799 before FOMC rate decision. Price later retreated briefly to 1.3702 and then rallied above 1.3811 to a fresh 6-month high at 1.3812 before tumbling to 1.3674 near New York close.
Versus the Japanese yen, dollar traded sideways in Asia after rebounding strongly from Tuesday's New York low of 102.50 to 103.03 due to a 2% gain in Nikkei 225 index. The pair found support at 102.82 in European morning on cross-selling in yen and then briefly rose to 103.28 in New York morning after the upbeat U.S. housing starts data. The pair later retreated briefly to 102.71 after FOMC and then penetrated last Friday's 103.92 peak to a fresh 5-year high at 104.35 near New York close.
U.S. housing starts rose to 1.09 million units last month, from 0.89 million in October, highest since February 2008 and posted a largest rise since January 1990, increased by 22.7%, however, U.S. building permits fell 3.1% to 1.01 million units in November, from 1.04 million units the previous month.
Cable edged higher after finding support at 1.6262 in Australia and then rallied in European morning after data showed that the U.K. unemployment rate unexpectedly fell to a four-and-a-half year low in the three months to October, price rose to a high of 1.6370 and then retreated to 1.6344 in New York trading after FOMC before rallying to a high of 1.6486.
U.K. unemployment benefit claimant fell by 36,700 in November, better than expectations for a decline of 35,000. October’s figure was revised to a drop of 42,800 people from a previously reported decline of 41,700. A separate report from ONS showed U.K. unemployment rate fell to 7.4% in the three months to October, the lowest level since April 2009.
Bank of England said on Wednesday 'recent sterling strength reflects better data but further substantial appreciation may hurt recovery; recent data suggest burgeoning recovery; some signs of greater investment but net trade weak; government steps to limit energy price rises may lower CPI by 0.15% if fully passed on by utilities; CPI inflation now seen at or near 2% target in early 2014, depending on timing of energy price changes; lack of productivity improvement despite stronger growth is puzzling, data may be misleading; too soon to draw conclusions about response of supply capacity to greater demand; forward guidance remains in place as inflation expectations well anchored, CPI outlook lower, FPC not concerned on stability.'
Data to be released on Thursday:
New Zealand GDP, Japan all industry index, leading indicators, Swiss trade balance, EU current account, U.K. retail sales, U.S. jobless claims, Philadelphia Fed survey, existing home sales, leading indicators..
AceTraderFx Dec 19: Daily Outlook on Asian Exotic USD/IDR
USD/IDR DAILY OUTLOOK - 12190
19 Dec 2013 03:06GMT
Usd's breach of y'day's 12175 high signals LT
upmove remains in force n further gain to 12300 wud
be seen, abv wud extend to 12400.
Hold long for this move with stop as indicated,
below wud risk pullback to 12100.
STRATEGY : Long at 12200
POSITION : Long at 12200
OBJECTIVE : 12300
STOP-LOSS : 12150
RES : 12300/12400/12500
SUP : 12175/12100/12040
AceTraderFx Dec 20: Dollar maintains a firm undertone after Wed's tapering by Fed
Market Review - 19/12/2013 21:04GMT
Dollar maintains a firm undertone after Wed's tapering by Fed
U.S. dollar extended rally against other major currencies on Thursday following the Federal Reserve's decision on Wednesday to start tapering its economic stimulus program.
The Federal Reserve announced on Wednesday that it would reduce its USD85 billion-a-month bond buying program by USD10 billion in January. In his last press conference as Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke said the economy was continuing to make progress.
During the day, although euro recovered after dropping further to 1.3650 in Thursday's Asian trading, renewed dollar's broad-based rebound capped intra-day gain at 1.3691 in European morning and price later tanked to 1.3658 in New York morning before stabilizing.
Versus the yen, dollar extended Wednesday's rally to a fresh 5-year peak at 104.37 in Australia but only to retreat to 103.78 in Asia on profit-taking. Later, dollar's broad-based rebound lifted price again in Europe and price edged higher to 104.35 in New York trading before easing.
Although cable found support at 1.6365 in Asia and then recovered to 1.6388 in European morning, dollar's broad-based rebound together with cross-selling of sterling pressured price again in New York morning and price extended losses from Wednesday's fresh 2-year peak at 1.6486 to 1.6335 before recovering.
On the data front, U.S. initial jobless claims rose for the second consecutive week last week and hit a 9-month high during the year-end holiday season, increased to 379K in the week ending December 14 from a revised 369K the prior week. A separate report later in the day showed U.S. existing homes in November declined for the third straight month, fell 4.3 percent to an annual rate of 4.90 million, the weakest pace since December 2012.
In other news, European Central Bank President Mario Draghi told Reuters as he arrived for the EU leaders summit that 'the European Central Bank welcomed on Thursday a deal among EU finance ministers to set up an agency and network of funds to close troubled banks in the euro zone; it's an important step towards completion of our banking union.'
Data to be released on Friday:
Bank of Japan rate decision, U.K. consumer confidence, current account, GDP, PSNCR, public sector net borrowing, Germany PPI, consumer confidence, France business climate, EU consumer confidence, U.S. GDP, personal consumption, PCE, Canada CPI and retail sales.