Nordea says it's 30% Analysts from Nordea on scenarios after the Brexit referendum: In Q4 2016, the new prime minister triggers Article 50 of the EU Treaty by notifying the EU that the UK intends to leave. That opens a two-year window for negotiating a withdrawal agreement...
Further comments from the Chancellor We should move towards arrangement that provides the closest possible economic ties with our neighbours Urgency is required to establish new arrangements with EU There has been no disorder in financial markets Does not expect the situation to deteriorate but h...
The US has another crack at picking a number for its Q1 GDP at 12.30 GMT Despite closing off Q2 this week, the US is still trying to get Q1 data right. The last showing of 0.8% GDP is expected to rise to 1.0% in the final reading. Consumer spending stayed at 1...
The Fed has repeatedly been upbeat on consumers The US GDP Q1 final revision was slightly higher than expected but it raises fresh questions about future growth. Consumer spending was revised down to +1.5% from +1.9%. Economists had expected a boost to 2.0...
Details of the April 2016 US Case Shiller house price index report 28 June 2016 Prior 0.9% 5.4% vs 5.4% exp y/y. Prior 5.4%. Revised to 5.5% NSA 1.1% vs 0.9% prior m/m. Prior revised to 1.0% US HPI 5.03% vs 5.15% prior y/y. Revised to 5.11...
S&P 500 up 22 points to 2024 It's bounce day. Will the bears sell the bounce? One clue will come from the technicals. The S&P 500 is testing the May low of 2025. Whether that breaks and whether we close above it are critical...
June consumer confidence from The Conference Board Prior was 92.6 (revised to 92.4) Best since October 2015 The index jumped from the worst since July 2015 to the best since August 2015. Details...
Winners and losers of globalization at odds The dominant theme of the past three decades is globalization. It's meant open borders and open trade. The backlash is here. The Labour Left vs the Latte Left The wedge looks like it's immigration but it's really political correctness...
Dead cat or sustainable? I think there is far too much turmoil and uncertainty in the UK to sustain the bounce in European stock but it was party time today. UK FTSE +2.5% French CAC +2.5% German DAX +1.9...
Cable bounce fades All the gains since the start of London trading have evaporated and GBP/USD is now up just 60 pips on the day to 1.3284. The high was 1.3419. The level to watch is yesterday's US low of 1.3260. A break below would confirm that the minor uptrend since late yesterday is broken...
Firms uncertain about trade with Europe John Cridland, the Director-General of the Confederation of British Industry met with UK political leaders and his verdict was negative. He said he didn't come out of the meeting feeling great...
Draghi scoop from Bloomberg Bloomberg obtained Draghi comments from an EU Summit document. Sees GDP reduction for at least 3 years Concerned Brexit will lead to competitive devaluations It's time to address bank vulnerabilities...
Boris Johnson vs Theresa May A poll, which looks like an online survey, was released from UK website ConservativeHome today and showed a slight lead for Theresa May over Boris Johnson. It's not clear who will be in the race yet ahead of tomorrow's deadline...
A busy morning for the pound again 28 June 2016 We've seen good two-way business on the pound this morning with GBPUSD and GBPJPY particularly enjoying some action. In the cable order-board I highlighted the near term supply between 1.3350-1.3400 and we saw 1.3373 before a return to test 1.3300...
US ratings agency turning their attention to Spain 28 June Sunday's outcome is less likely to result in a repeat of 6-month political stalemate that followed that in Dec 2015 signs that a high level of consumer confidence may have reduced Brexit -related falls in fin markets represent key downsid...
Italy June confidence report 28 June 2016 102.1 prev consumer confidence 110.2 vs 112.5 exp vs 112.5 prev revised down from 112.7 economic sentiment 101.2 vs 103.00 prev revised down from 103.4 All irrelevant right now. Let's see how its stacks up next time post-Brexit vote...
German chancellor Merkel addressing the Bundestag 28 June we have to respect Brexit decision Europe has got through many crises and challenges in the past EU is strong enough to withstand Brexit Germany has special interest in European unification succeeding...
Japanese Government Bond yields hit record low levels 28 June 2016 40 year 0.075% 30 year JGB 0.05% 20 year 0.04% 10 year 0.0225...
Here's the Economic Data/Event Calendar for today 28 June 2016 Greetings everybody, and yes England's footballers were total garbage to a man! Data-wise it's another relatively quiet one today but we do get a third look at US Q1 GDP at 12.30 GMT As always I wish you a good session Times GMT...
UK finance minister George Osborne has officially said he will not stand in the UK's Conservative Party leadership race 28 June 2016 Eamonn had the breaking news earlier but here's a bit more detail from Osborne's letter in The Times: "It isn't in my nature to do things by half-measure and I foug...
