Propensity score in causal inference
The article examines the topic of matching in causal inference. Matching is used to compare similar observations in a data set. This is necessary to correctly determine causal effects and get rid of bias. The author explains how this helps in building trading systems based on machine learning, which become more stable on new data they were not trained on. The propensity score plays a central role and is widely used in causal inference.
Population optimization algorithms: Resistance to getting stuck in local extrema (Part I)
This article presents a unique experiment that aims to examine the behavior of population optimization algorithms in the context of their ability to efficiently escape local minima when population diversity is low and reach global maxima. Working in this direction will provide further insight into which specific algorithms can successfully continue their search using coordinates set by the user as a starting point, and what factors influence their success.
Developing a multi-currency Expert Advisor (Part 4): Pending virtual orders and saving status
Having started developing a multi-currency EA, we have already achieved some results and managed to carry out several code improvement iterations. However, our EA was unable to work with pending orders and resume operation after the terminal restart. Let's add these features.
The base class of population algorithms as the backbone of efficient optimization
The article represents a unique research attempt to combine a variety of population algorithms into a single class to simplify the application of optimization methods. This approach not only opens up opportunities for the development of new algorithms, including hybrid variants, but also creates a universal basic test stand. This stand becomes a key tool for choosing the optimal algorithm depending on a specific task.
Building A Candlestick Trend Constraint Model (Part 5): Notification System (Part I)
We will breakdown the main MQL5 code into specified code snippets to illustrate the integration of Telegram and WhatsApp for receiving signal notifications from the Trend Constraint indicator we are creating in this article series. This will help traders, both novices and experienced developers, grasp the concept easily. First, we will cover the setup of MetaTrader 5 for notifications and its significance to the user. This will help developers in advance to take notes to further apply in their systems.
Integrating Hidden Markov Models in MetaTrader 5
In this article we demonstrate how Hidden Markov Models trained using Python can be integrated into MetaTrader 5 applications. Hidden Markov Models are a powerful statistical tool used for modeling time series data, where the system being modeled is characterized by unobservable (hidden) states. A fundamental premise of HMMs is that the probability of being in a given state at a particular time depends on the process's state at the previous time slot.
Using optimization algorithms to configure EA parameters on the fly
The article discusses the practical aspects of using optimization algorithms to find the best EA parameters on the fly, as well as virtualization of trading operations and EA logic. The article can be used as an instruction for implementing optimization algorithms into an EA.
MQL5 Wizard Techniques you should know (Part 22): Conditional GANs
Generative Adversarial Networks are a pairing of Neural Networks that train off of each other for more accurate results. We adopt the conditional type of these networks as we look to possible application in forecasting Financial time series within an Expert Signal Class.
MQL5 Wizard Techniques you should know (Part 21): Testing with Economic Calendar Data
Economic Calendar Data is not available for testing with Expert Advisors within Strategy Tester, by default. We look at how Databases could help in providing a work around this limitation. So, for this article we explore how SQLite databases can be used to archive Economic Calendar news such that wizard assembled Expert Advisors can use this to generate trade signals.
Population optimization algorithms: Artificial Multi-Social Search Objects (MSO)
This is a continuation of the previous article considering the idea of social groups. The article explores the evolution of social groups using movement and memory algorithms. The results will help to understand the evolution of social systems and apply them in optimization and search for solutions.
Population optimization algorithms: Evolution of Social Groups (ESG)
We will consider the principle of constructing multi-population algorithms. As an example of this type of algorithm, we will have a look at the new custom algorithm - Evolution of Social Groups (ESG). We will analyze the basic concepts, population interaction mechanisms and advantages of this algorithm, as well as examine its performance in optimization problems.
Causal inference in time series classification problems
In this article, we will look at the theory of causal inference using machine learning, as well as the custom approach implementation in Python. Causal inference and causal thinking have their roots in philosophy and psychology and play an important role in our understanding of reality.
Developing a multi-currency Expert Advisor (Part 1): Collaboration of several trading strategies
There are quite a lot of different trading strategies. So, it might be useful to apply several strategies working in parallel to diversify risks and increase the stability of trading results. But if each strategy is implemented as a separate Expert Advisor (EA), then managing their work on one trading account becomes much more difficult. To solve this problem, it would be reasonable to implement the operation of different trading strategies within a single EA.
Population optimization algorithms: Binary Genetic Algorithm (BGA). Part II
In this article, we will look at the binary genetic algorithm (BGA), which models the natural processes that occur in the genetic material of living things in nature.
Developing an MQL5 RL agent with RestAPI integration (Part 3): Creating automatic moves and test scripts in MQL5
This article discusses the implementation of automatic moves in the tic-tac-toe game in Python, integrated with MQL5 functions and unit tests. The goal is to improve the interactivity of the game and ensure the reliability of the system through testing in MQL5. The presentation covers game logic development, integration, and hands-on testing, and concludes with the creation of a dynamic game environment and a robust integrated system.
Developing an MQL5 RL agent with RestAPI integration (Part 2): MQL5 functions for HTTP interaction with the tic-tac-toe game REST API
In this article we will talk about how MQL5 can interact with Python and FastAPI, using HTTP calls in MQL5 to interact with the tic-tac-toe game in Python. The article discusses the creation of an API using FastAPI for this integration and provides a test script in MQL5, highlighting the versatility of MQL5, the simplicity of Python, and the effectiveness of FastAPI in connecting different technologies to create innovative solutions.
MQL5 Wizard Techniques you should know (Part 17): Multicurrency Trading
Trading across multiple currencies is not available by default when an expert advisor is assembled via the wizard. We examine 2 possible hacks traders can make when looking to test their ideas off more than one symbol at a time.
Developing an MQL5 Reinforcement Learning agent with RestAPI integration (Part 1): How to use RestAPIs in MQL5
In this article we will talk about the importance of APIs (Application Programming Interface) for interaction between different applications and software systems. We will see the role of APIs in simplifying interactions between applications, allowing them to efficiently share data and functionality.
Population optimization algorithms: Changing shape, shifting probability distributions and testing on Smart Cephalopod (SC)
The article examines the impact of changing the shape of probability distributions on the performance of optimization algorithms. We will conduct experiments using the Smart Cephalopod (SC) test algorithm to evaluate the efficiency of various probability distributions in the context of optimization problems.
Developing an MQTT client for MetaTrader 5: a TDD approach — Final
This article is the last part of a series describing our development steps of a native MQL5 client for the MQTT 5.0 protocol. Although the library is not production-ready yet, in this part, we will use our client to update a custom symbol with ticks (or rates) sourced from another broker. Please, see the bottom of this article for more information about the library's current status, what is missing for it to be fully compliant with the MQTT 5.0 protocol, a possible roadmap, and how to follow and contribute to its development.
The Group Method of Data Handling: Implementing the Multilayered Iterative Algorithm in MQL5
In this article we describe the implementation of the Multilayered Iterative Algorithm of the Group Method of Data Handling in MQL5.
Cross-validation and basics of causal inference in CatBoost models, export to ONNX format
The article proposes the method of creating bots using machine learning.
Developing an MQTT client for Metatrader 5: a TDD approach — Part 6
This article is the sixth part of a series describing our development steps of a native MQL5 client for the MQTT 5.0 protocol. In this part we comment on the main changes in our first refactoring, how we arrived at a viable blueprint for our packet-building classes, how we are building PUBLISH and PUBACK packets, and the semantics behind the PUBACK Reason Codes.
Modified Grid-Hedge EA in MQL5 (Part III): Optimizing Simple Hedge Strategy (I)
In this third part, we revisit the Simple Hedge and Simple Grid Expert Advisors (EAs) developed earlier. Our focus shifts to refining the Simple Hedge EA through mathematical analysis and a brute force approach, aiming for optimal strategy usage. This article delves deep into the mathematical optimization of the strategy, setting the stage for future exploration of coding-based optimization in later installments.
Population optimization algorithms: Charged System Search (CSS) algorithm
In this article, we will consider another optimization algorithm inspired by inanimate nature - Charged System Search (CSS) algorithm. The purpose of this article is to present a new optimization algorithm based on the principles of physics and mechanics.
Integrating ML models with the Strategy Tester (Conclusion): Implementing a regression model for price prediction
This article describes the implementation of a regression model based on a decision tree. The model should predict prices of financial assets. We have already prepared the data, trained and evaluated the model, as well as adjusted and optimized it. However, it is important to note that this model is intended for study purposes only and should not be used in real trading.
Working with ONNX models in float16 and float8 formats
Data formats used to represent machine learning models play a crucial role in their effectiveness. In recent years, several new types of data have emerged, specifically designed for working with deep learning models. In this article, we will focus on two new data formats that have become widely adopted in modern models.
DRAKON visual programming language — communication tool for MQL developers and customers
DRAKON is a visual programming language designed to simplify interaction between specialists from different fields (biologists, physicists, engineers...) with programmers in Russian space projects (for example, in the Buran reusable spacecraft project). In this article, I will talk about how DRAKON makes the creation of algorithms accessible and intuitive, even if you have never encountered code, and also how it is easier for customers to explain their thoughts when ordering trading robots, and for programmers to make fewer mistakes in complex functions.
Algorithmic Trading With MetaTrader 5 And R For Beginners
Embark on a compelling exploration where financial analysis meets algorithmic trading as we unravel the art of seamlessly uniting R and MetaTrader 5. This article is your guide to bridging the realms of analytical finesse in R with the formidable trading capabilities of MetaTrader 5.
Developing an MQTT client for Metatrader 5: a TDD approach — Part 5
This article is the fifth part of a series describing our development steps of a native MQL5 client for the MQTT 5.0 protocol. In this part we describe the structure of PUBLISH packets, how we are setting their Publish Flags, encoding Topic Name(s) strings, and setting Packet Identifier(s) when required.
Implementation of the Augmented Dickey Fuller test in MQL5
In this article we demonstrate the implementation of the Augmented Dickey-Fuller test, and apply it to conduct cointegration tests using the Engle-Granger method.
Market Reactions and Trading Strategies in Response to Dividend Announcements: Evaluating the Efficient Market Hypothesis in Stock Trading
In this article, we will analyse the impact of dividend announcements on stock market returns and see how investors can earn more returns than those offered by the market when they expect a company to announce dividends. In doing so, we will also check the validity of the Efficient Market Hypothesis in the context of the Indian Stock Market.
Combinatorially Symmetric Cross Validation In MQL5
In this article we present the implementation of Combinatorially Symmetric Cross Validation in pure MQL5, to measure the degree to which a overfitting may occure after optimizing a strategy using the slow complete algorithm of the Strategy Tester.
The case for using Hospital-Performance Data with Perceptrons, this Q4, in weighing SPDR XLV's next Performance
XLV is SPDR healthcare ETF and in an age where it is common to be bombarded by a wide array of traditional news items plus social media feeds, it can be pressing to select a data set for use with a model. We try to tackle this problem for this ETF by sizing up some of its critical data sets in MQL5.
Regression models of the Scikit-learn Library and their export to ONNX
In this article, we will explore the application of regression models from the Scikit-learn package, attempt to convert them into ONNX format, and use the resultant models within MQL5 programs. Additionally, we will compare the accuracy of the original models with their ONNX versions for both float and double precision. Furthermore, we will examine the ONNX representation of regression models, aiming to provide a better understanding of their internal structure and operational principles.
Developing an MQTT client for Metatrader 5: a TDD approach — Part 4
This article is the fourth part of a series describing our development steps of a native MQL5 client for the MQTT protocol. In this part, we describe what MQTT v5.0 Properties are, their semantics, how we are reading some of them, and provide a brief example of how Properties can be used to extend the protocol.
Mastering ONNX: The Game-Changer for MQL5 Traders
Dive into the world of ONNX, the powerful open-standard format for exchanging machine learning models. Discover how leveraging ONNX can revolutionize algorithmic trading in MQL5, allowing traders to seamlessly integrate cutting-edge AI models and elevate their strategies to new heights. Uncover the secrets to cross-platform compatibility and learn how to unlock the full potential of ONNX in your MQL5 trading endeavors. Elevate your trading game with this comprehensive guide to Mastering ONNX
Classification models in the Scikit-Learn library and their export to ONNX
In this article, we will explore the application of all classification models available in the Scikit-Learn library to solve the classification task of Fisher's Iris dataset. We will attempt to convert these models into ONNX format and utilize the resulting models in MQL5 programs. Additionally, we will compare the accuracy of the original models with their ONNX versions on the full Iris dataset.
Developing an MQTT client for MetaTrader 5: a TDD approach — Part 3
This article is the third part of a series describing our development steps of a native MQL5 client for the MQTT protocol. In this part, we describe in detail how we are using Test-Driven Development to implement the Operational Behavior part of the CONNECT/CONNACK packet exchange. At the end of this step, our client MUST be able to behave appropriately when dealing with any of the possible server outcomes from a connection attempt.
Developing an MQTT client for MetaTrader 5: a TDD approach — Part 2
This article is part of a series describing our development steps of a native MQL5 client for the MQTT protocol. In this part we describe our code organization, the first header files and classes, and how we are writing our tests. This article also includes brief notes about the Test-Driven-Development practice and how we are applying it to this project.