Piyush Lalsingh Ratnu
- Trader & Analyst en Piyush Ratnu Gold Market Research
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Piyush Ratnu is an independent forex market analyst & trader with core expertise in XAUUSD/Spot Gold.
With more than 15 years of experience as a Financial Market Analyst, Piyush Ratnu held the responsibility of developing and refining a series of algorithms & analytic tools to simplify the trading processes. His tools and algorithms were defined and rated as “unlike tools seen in the market before, extensively designed and most importantly, functional and logical” by some of the top financial companies and analysts at New York, London and Dubai.
Piyush Ratnu holds an experience of 290,000 trades, 1,790,000 pips calculated with a remarkable trading execution rate of 2 trades per second in an ideal scenario with profit booking in less than 8 seconds tracing 60+ pips/trade, as per audited and verified track record of last 10 years.
Core strength:
Economics, Economic Data Analysis, Spot Gold (XAUUSD), USD Majors, SR MTF Range Trading, Chart Patterns,
Volume Trading, Day Trading & Position Trading
Trading style
Fundamental based Intra-day trading.
Analysis based on proprietary algorithm + 90+ parameters.
Core focus: US Futures and XAUUSD | Spot Gold
Motto
Plan your trade, and then trade your plan!
Detailed research: https://www.reddit.com/r/prgoldanalysis
Track Record since 2021: https://bit.ly/PRxauusdAnalysis
MyFxBook:
X.com: https://x.com/piyushratnu
Insta: https://www.instagram.com/piyushratnuofficial
Connect for more details:
Telegram: https://www.T.me/PiyushRatnuOfficial
Risk Disclaimer:
Trading in foreign exchange (“Forex”) on margins entails high risk and is not suitable for all investors. Past performance is not an indication of future results. In this case, as well, the high degree of leverage can act both against you and for you. Trading foreign exchange, indices and commodities, on margin, carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all individuals.
The information made available by Piyush Ratnu is for your general information only and is not intended to address your particular requirements. In particular, the information does not constitute any form of advice or recommendation and is not intended to be relied upon by users in making, or refraining from making, any investment decisions.
Piyush Ratnu does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position(s) of Piyush Ratnu.
With more than 15 years of experience as a Financial Market Analyst, Piyush Ratnu held the responsibility of developing and refining a series of algorithms & analytic tools to simplify the trading processes. His tools and algorithms were defined and rated as “unlike tools seen in the market before, extensively designed and most importantly, functional and logical” by some of the top financial companies and analysts at New York, London and Dubai.
Piyush Ratnu holds an experience of 290,000 trades, 1,790,000 pips calculated with a remarkable trading execution rate of 2 trades per second in an ideal scenario with profit booking in less than 8 seconds tracing 60+ pips/trade, as per audited and verified track record of last 10 years.
Core strength:
Economics, Economic Data Analysis, Spot Gold (XAUUSD), USD Majors, SR MTF Range Trading, Chart Patterns,
Volume Trading, Day Trading & Position Trading
Trading style
Fundamental based Intra-day trading.
Analysis based on proprietary algorithm + 90+ parameters.
Core focus: US Futures and XAUUSD | Spot Gold
Motto
Plan your trade, and then trade your plan!
Detailed research: https://www.reddit.com/r/prgoldanalysis
Track Record since 2021: https://bit.ly/PRxauusdAnalysis
MyFxBook:
X.com: https://x.com/piyushratnu
Insta: https://www.instagram.com/piyushratnuofficial
Connect for more details:
Telegram: https://www.T.me/PiyushRatnuOfficial
Risk Disclaimer:
Trading in foreign exchange (“Forex”) on margins entails high risk and is not suitable for all investors. Past performance is not an indication of future results. In this case, as well, the high degree of leverage can act both against you and for you. Trading foreign exchange, indices and commodities, on margin, carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all individuals.
The information made available by Piyush Ratnu is for your general information only and is not intended to address your particular requirements. In particular, the information does not constitute any form of advice or recommendation and is not intended to be relied upon by users in making, or refraining from making, any investment decisions.
Piyush Ratnu does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position(s) of Piyush Ratnu.
Piyush Lalsingh Ratnu
#PiyushRatnu XAUUSD Analysis & Research | #Forex #Trading
$2407 achieved before 24 July 2024 | #AccuracyCheck
$2407 achieved before 24 July 2024 | #AccuracyCheck
Piyush Lalsingh Ratnu
XAUUSD $2485-2385 ZONE AHICEVED. $100 CRASH IN 4 TRADING DAYS.
#PiyushRatnu XAUUSD Analysis & Research | #Forex #Trading
#PiyushRatnu XAUUSD Analysis & Research | #Forex #Trading
Piyush Lalsingh Ratnu
#XAUUSD Crash from $2407 - 2397-2387 (2389) achieved
$20 crash: RT 30% *20 $6$2389 +6= 2395CMP $2394.50
#PiyushRatnu #Gold #Dollar #Forex #Trading
$20 crash: RT 30% *20 $6$2389 +6= 2395CMP $2394.50
#PiyushRatnu #Gold #Dollar #Forex #Trading
Piyush Lalsingh Ratnu
#XAUUSD #Forex #Gold
As projected on 17 July 2024: $2407 achieved before 24.07.2024
#PiyushRatnu #Trading #Analysis #Education
As projected on 17 July 2024: $2407 achieved before 24.07.2024
#PiyushRatnu #Trading #Analysis #Education
Piyush Lalsingh Ratnu
Why XAUUSD crashed from $2484-2469-2442-2424?
Analysis by Piyush Ratnu Gold Market Research
We projected a crash before 24 July 2024 till $2424/2407 in advance, verify at: https://x.com/piyushratnu/status/1813428216863896037/photo/1
Gold price is on a three-day corrective decline from record highs of $2,484 on Friday, paring back weekly gains amid a solid rebound staged by the US Dollar (USD) alongside the US Treasury bond yields.
Escalating trade tensions between the US and China combined with uncertainty on whether the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will go for another interest-rate cut after lowering rates in September weighed on the market sentiment, lifting the US Treasury bond yields across the curve. This, in turn, propelled the US Dollar from four-month troughs against its major currency rivals.
Alert:
Gold traders will stay cautious, as the end-of-the-week flows will remain in play and position readjustments ahead of next week’s advance US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data for the second quarter.
🆘 Markets are fully pricing in the September Fed rate cut while another cut in December is also likely, according to the CME Group’s FedWAtch Tool.
Data on Thursday showed that US jobless claims rose to the highest level in nearly a year to a seasonally adjusted 243,000 for the week ended July 13. On the other hand, The Philly Fed Manufacturing Index jumped from 1.3 in June to an impressive 13.9 in July, reaching its highest point since April and smashing the 2.9 forecast. Mixed US economic data combined with prudent Fed commentary raised concerns on the scope of the Fed rate cuts this year.
Looking ahead, all eyes will remain on the speeches from the Fed officials, as the US central bank enters its ‘blackout period’ on Saturday before July 30-31 policy meeting. Fed policymakers John Williams and Raphael Bostic are due to speak later in the American session on Friday.
🍎 Summary:
Gold price (XAU/USD) maintains its offered tone through the Asian session on Friday and is currently placed near a multi-day low, around the $2,425 region. The US Dollar (USD) builds on the previous day's solid recovery from a four-month low and turns out to be a key factor dragging the commodity lower for the third successive day. Apart from this, some profit-taking, especially after the recent rally of over 6.5% since the beginning of this month, further contributes to the decline, though the downside seems limited.
Investors now seem convinced that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will start lowering borrowing costs in September and have been pricing in the possibility of two more rate cuts by year end. This keeps the US Treasury bond yields on the defensive and should cap the USD. Apart from this, the risk-off mood could lend support to the safe-haven Gold price. Furthermore, geopolitical tensions and central bank demand should help limit any meaningful depreciating move for the non-yielding yellow metal.
Crucial Price Zones Ahead:
🔻BZ $2407/2385/2369/2332
🔺SZ $2469/2485/2500/2525
Analysis by Piyush Ratnu Gold Market Research
We projected a crash before 24 July 2024 till $2424/2407 in advance, verify at: https://x.com/piyushratnu/status/1813428216863896037/photo/1
Gold price is on a three-day corrective decline from record highs of $2,484 on Friday, paring back weekly gains amid a solid rebound staged by the US Dollar (USD) alongside the US Treasury bond yields.
Escalating trade tensions between the US and China combined with uncertainty on whether the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will go for another interest-rate cut after lowering rates in September weighed on the market sentiment, lifting the US Treasury bond yields across the curve. This, in turn, propelled the US Dollar from four-month troughs against its major currency rivals.
Alert:
Gold traders will stay cautious, as the end-of-the-week flows will remain in play and position readjustments ahead of next week’s advance US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data for the second quarter.
🆘 Markets are fully pricing in the September Fed rate cut while another cut in December is also likely, according to the CME Group’s FedWAtch Tool.
Data on Thursday showed that US jobless claims rose to the highest level in nearly a year to a seasonally adjusted 243,000 for the week ended July 13. On the other hand, The Philly Fed Manufacturing Index jumped from 1.3 in June to an impressive 13.9 in July, reaching its highest point since April and smashing the 2.9 forecast. Mixed US economic data combined with prudent Fed commentary raised concerns on the scope of the Fed rate cuts this year.
Looking ahead, all eyes will remain on the speeches from the Fed officials, as the US central bank enters its ‘blackout period’ on Saturday before July 30-31 policy meeting. Fed policymakers John Williams and Raphael Bostic are due to speak later in the American session on Friday.
🍎 Summary:
Gold price (XAU/USD) maintains its offered tone through the Asian session on Friday and is currently placed near a multi-day low, around the $2,425 region. The US Dollar (USD) builds on the previous day's solid recovery from a four-month low and turns out to be a key factor dragging the commodity lower for the third successive day. Apart from this, some profit-taking, especially after the recent rally of over 6.5% since the beginning of this month, further contributes to the decline, though the downside seems limited.
Investors now seem convinced that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will start lowering borrowing costs in September and have been pricing in the possibility of two more rate cuts by year end. This keeps the US Treasury bond yields on the defensive and should cap the USD. Apart from this, the risk-off mood could lend support to the safe-haven Gold price. Furthermore, geopolitical tensions and central bank demand should help limit any meaningful depreciating move for the non-yielding yellow metal.
Crucial Price Zones Ahead:
🔻BZ $2407/2385/2369/2332
🔺SZ $2469/2485/2500/2525
Piyush Lalsingh Ratnu
🆘 Key Factors that might impact XAUUSD demand / Gold price / Interest Rate Cut Decision if Mr. Trump wins the elections:
The New York Times reported on Wednesday that former President Donald Trump, in a meeting with House Republicans last month, expressed support for tax reductions, lower interest rates, and increased tariffs. These measures could potentially be inflationary for the economy and weaken the Greenback, which may, in turn, boost the demand for dollar-denominated Gold.
During an interview with Bloomberg News on Tuesday, Donald Trump cautioned Fed Chair Jerome Powell against cutting US interest rates before November’s presidential vote. However, Trump also indicated that if re-elected, he would allow Powell to complete his term if he continued to "do the right thing" at the Federal Reserve.
On Tuesday, Federal Reserve (Fed) Board of Governors member Dr. Adriana Kugler acknowledged that inflationary pressures have eased but emphasized that the Fed still needs additional data to justify a rate cut. Kugler indicated that if upcoming data does not confirm that inflation is moving toward the 2% target, it may be appropriate to maintain current rates for a while longer, per Reuters.
The New York Times reported on Wednesday that former President Donald Trump, in a meeting with House Republicans last month, expressed support for tax reductions, lower interest rates, and increased tariffs. These measures could potentially be inflationary for the economy and weaken the Greenback, which may, in turn, boost the demand for dollar-denominated Gold.
During an interview with Bloomberg News on Tuesday, Donald Trump cautioned Fed Chair Jerome Powell against cutting US interest rates before November’s presidential vote. However, Trump also indicated that if re-elected, he would allow Powell to complete his term if he continued to "do the right thing" at the Federal Reserve.
On Tuesday, Federal Reserve (Fed) Board of Governors member Dr. Adriana Kugler acknowledged that inflationary pressures have eased but emphasized that the Fed still needs additional data to justify a rate cut. Kugler indicated that if upcoming data does not confirm that inflation is moving toward the 2% target, it may be appropriate to maintain current rates for a while longer, per Reuters.
Piyush Lalsingh Ratnu
XAUUSD CMP: $2466
Current Status:
M15A618
H1A382
Expected stop (C)
M15A100 $2455
H1A618 $2442
Upcoming Economic Event:
49 min EUR Deposit Facility Rate (Jul) 3.75% 3.75%
49 min EUR ECB Marginal Lending Facility 4.50%
49 min EUR ECB Monetary Policy Statement
49 min EUR ECB Interest Rate Decision (Jul) 4.25% 4.25%
Current Fundamentals:
The dollar has bounced Thursday after falling to its lowest level since March during the previous session.
Confidence that the U.S. Federal Reserve will start cutting interest rates at its next meeting in September, to boost a slowing economy, has weighed heavily on the greenback.
EUR/USD fell 0.1% to 1.0928, slipping slightly from Wednesday's four-month peak ahead of a policy-setting European Central Bank meeting later in the session.
The central bank is widely expected to keep rates steady, after cutting in June, and thus attention will largely be on the comments from ECB President Christine Lagarde at the accompanying press conference.
USD/CNY slipped slightly lower at 7.2586, with the pair steadying below eight-month highs.
Sentiment towards China worsened as a Bloomberg report said the U.S. was considering stricter curbs on China’s technology and chipmaking industry - a move that could draw ire from Beijing and spark a renewed trade war between the world’s biggest economies.
XAUUSD
Gold price (XAU/USD) edges higher to near $2,470 per troy ounce on Thursday, remaining close to record highs amid growing optimism that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will reduce rates in September. Lower interest rates make non-yielding assets like Gold more attractive to investors.
Federal Reserve officials have expressed increasing confidence that the pace of price increases is now more consistently aligning with policymakers' goals. On Wednesday, Fed Governor Christopher Waller said that the US central bank is ‘getting closer’ to an interest rate cut. Meanwhile, Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin stated that easing in inflation had begun to broaden and he would like to see it continue,” per Reuters. Traders will likely observe the US weekly Initial Jobless Claims and the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index on Thursday, along with the Fed’s Lorie Logan speech.
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the US Dollar (USD) against the six other major currencies, rebounds due to improved US Treasury yields. The DXY trades around 103.80, with yields on 2-year and 10-year US Treasury bonds standing at 4.45% and 4.17%, respectively, at the time of writing. This scenario may limit the upside of the Gold prices.
🟢 Crucial XAUUSD Price Stops:
🔻BZ $2448/2440
🔺SZ $2490/2509
Current Status:
M15A618
H1A382
Expected stop (C)
M15A100 $2455
H1A618 $2442
Upcoming Economic Event:
49 min EUR Deposit Facility Rate (Jul) 3.75% 3.75%
49 min EUR ECB Marginal Lending Facility 4.50%
49 min EUR ECB Monetary Policy Statement
49 min EUR ECB Interest Rate Decision (Jul) 4.25% 4.25%
Current Fundamentals:
The dollar has bounced Thursday after falling to its lowest level since March during the previous session.
Confidence that the U.S. Federal Reserve will start cutting interest rates at its next meeting in September, to boost a slowing economy, has weighed heavily on the greenback.
EUR/USD fell 0.1% to 1.0928, slipping slightly from Wednesday's four-month peak ahead of a policy-setting European Central Bank meeting later in the session.
The central bank is widely expected to keep rates steady, after cutting in June, and thus attention will largely be on the comments from ECB President Christine Lagarde at the accompanying press conference.
USD/CNY slipped slightly lower at 7.2586, with the pair steadying below eight-month highs.
Sentiment towards China worsened as a Bloomberg report said the U.S. was considering stricter curbs on China’s technology and chipmaking industry - a move that could draw ire from Beijing and spark a renewed trade war between the world’s biggest economies.
XAUUSD
Gold price (XAU/USD) edges higher to near $2,470 per troy ounce on Thursday, remaining close to record highs amid growing optimism that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will reduce rates in September. Lower interest rates make non-yielding assets like Gold more attractive to investors.
Federal Reserve officials have expressed increasing confidence that the pace of price increases is now more consistently aligning with policymakers' goals. On Wednesday, Fed Governor Christopher Waller said that the US central bank is ‘getting closer’ to an interest rate cut. Meanwhile, Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin stated that easing in inflation had begun to broaden and he would like to see it continue,” per Reuters. Traders will likely observe the US weekly Initial Jobless Claims and the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index on Thursday, along with the Fed’s Lorie Logan speech.
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the US Dollar (USD) against the six other major currencies, rebounds due to improved US Treasury yields. The DXY trades around 103.80, with yields on 2-year and 10-year US Treasury bonds standing at 4.45% and 4.17%, respectively, at the time of writing. This scenario may limit the upside of the Gold prices.
🟢 Crucial XAUUSD Price Stops:
🔻BZ $2448/2440
🔺SZ $2490/2509
Piyush Lalsingh Ratnu
The escalating deficits and soaring national debt influence the gold market positively. As the U.S. debt continues to climb, reaching unprecedented levels, concerns about the stability of the U.S. dollar and the country's fiscal health grow. Historically, gold has been a preferred hedge against inflation and currency devaluation. Investors tend to flock to gold as a safe-haven asset in times of economic uncertainty, anticipating that it will retain its value better than fiat currencies subject to inflationary pressures. Consequently, the increasing national debt and deficit can drive up the demand for gold, pushing its prices higher.
Moreover, the rising debt interest payments, which are projected to exceed $1 trillion, indicate a growing burden on the federal budget. As the government allocates more resources to service its debt, it may have to resort to further monetary easing or other measures that could devalue the currency. Such fiscal policies often erode investor confidence in traditional assets and fiat currencies, making gold an attractive alternative. The perception of gold as a stable store of value becomes more pronounced, especially when government spending and debt levels appear unsustainable. This shift in investor sentiment can lead to increased purchases of gold, thereby boosting its market price.
On the other hand, geopolitical tensions and economic fragmentation also play a crucial role in enhancing gold's appeal. As geopolitical conflicts and divisions between major economic powers like the U.S. and China intensify, global markets may experience heightened volatility and uncertainty. These geopolitical risks can disrupt international trade and economic stability, prompting investors to seek refuge in gold. Additionally, if economic fragmentation leads to a bifurcated global economy, with distinct blocs aligning with either the U.S. or China, the potential for economic instability increases. In such a fragmented world, gold serves as a universal asset, unbound by the fortunes of any single currency or economy, thus becoming even more attractive as a safe haven.
This increased demand for gold amid geopolitical strife can drive its prices upward, benefiting the gold market significantly.
The combination of rising national debt, escalating deficits, and geopolitical tensions creates a highly favorable environment for the gold market. As investors seek to protect their assets against inflation, currency devaluation, and economic instability, gold emerges as a reliable safe-haven asset. The increasing fiscal burdens on the U.S. government, coupled with global geopolitical strife, drive up demand for gold, pushing its prices to new heights. By closely monitoring these macroeconomic and geopolitical factors, investors can strategically trade gold, leveraging technical analysis and market insights to capitalize on gold's potential for significant gains during times of uncertainty. The recent breakout in the gold market has initiated a strong surge and is likely to continue higher in July and August.
#XAUUSD #Gold #Forex #PiyushRatnu #forextrading
Moreover, the rising debt interest payments, which are projected to exceed $1 trillion, indicate a growing burden on the federal budget. As the government allocates more resources to service its debt, it may have to resort to further monetary easing or other measures that could devalue the currency. Such fiscal policies often erode investor confidence in traditional assets and fiat currencies, making gold an attractive alternative. The perception of gold as a stable store of value becomes more pronounced, especially when government spending and debt levels appear unsustainable. This shift in investor sentiment can lead to increased purchases of gold, thereby boosting its market price.
On the other hand, geopolitical tensions and economic fragmentation also play a crucial role in enhancing gold's appeal. As geopolitical conflicts and divisions between major economic powers like the U.S. and China intensify, global markets may experience heightened volatility and uncertainty. These geopolitical risks can disrupt international trade and economic stability, prompting investors to seek refuge in gold. Additionally, if economic fragmentation leads to a bifurcated global economy, with distinct blocs aligning with either the U.S. or China, the potential for economic instability increases. In such a fragmented world, gold serves as a universal asset, unbound by the fortunes of any single currency or economy, thus becoming even more attractive as a safe haven.
This increased demand for gold amid geopolitical strife can drive its prices upward, benefiting the gold market significantly.
The combination of rising national debt, escalating deficits, and geopolitical tensions creates a highly favorable environment for the gold market. As investors seek to protect their assets against inflation, currency devaluation, and economic instability, gold emerges as a reliable safe-haven asset. The increasing fiscal burdens on the U.S. government, coupled with global geopolitical strife, drive up demand for gold, pushing its prices to new heights. By closely monitoring these macroeconomic and geopolitical factors, investors can strategically trade gold, leveraging technical analysis and market insights to capitalize on gold's potential for significant gains during times of uncertainty. The recent breakout in the gold market has initiated a strong surge and is likely to continue higher in July and August.
#XAUUSD #Gold #Forex #PiyushRatnu #forextrading
Piyush Lalsingh Ratnu
Read the journey and check the accuracy of our analysis at x.com/piyushratnu
Copy and paste this link in your browser:
https://x.com/piyushratnu/status/1813434546206966264
Copy and paste this link in your browser:
https://x.com/piyushratnu/status/1813434546206966264
Piyush Lalsingh Ratnu
$2469 and $2479 price targets achieved on 16 July and 17 July respectively.
As projected and published by us on 16 July 2024 at 11.30 AM
#PiyushRatnu #PRGoldAnalysis #XAUUSD #Forex #GoldTraders
As projected and published by us on 16 July 2024 at 11.30 AM
#PiyushRatnu #PRGoldAnalysis #XAUUSD #Forex #GoldTraders
Piyush Lalsingh Ratnu
Why XAUUSD / Spot Gold Price is rising since last 24 hours?
Analysis by Piyush Ratnu Gold Market Research
(Range witnessed: $2407-2424-2442)
Projected by us in advance since last Thursday
Verify at: https://www.reddit.com/r/prgoldanalysis/comments/1e19xbw/why_xauusd_price_breached_2424_after_reversing/
Gold price is looking to extend previous gains early Tuesday, having clinched a new two-month high at $2,440 a day ago. Growing expectations that a US Federal Reserve (Fed) interest-rate cut in September is a done deal continue to underpin the non-interest-bearing Gold price.
🟢 Powell's Comments
Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s comments affirmed bets for a rate reduction in September after he said Monday that the central bank will not wait until inflation hits 2% to lower interest rates. The Fed is looking for “greater confidence” that inflation will return to the 2% level, Powell added.
Those remarks by the Fed Chief fueled a fresh leg down in the US Dollar (USD) alongside the US Treasury bond yields, driving Gold price back toward an all-time high of $2,450 zone.
🟢 Trump Assassination Attempt
Earlier, yesterday, Gold price witnessed some corrective moves, as the Greenback took advantage of risk-aversion induced by the weekend’s assassination attempt on ex-US President Donald Trump during his Pennsylvania rally. Investors digested the fateful Trump attack and ramped up the odds of his win in the US Presidential race.
🟢 China Second Quarter GDP
Further, investors flocked to safety in the USD following China’s second-quarter GDP miss in Asian hours on Monday. Data released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) showed Monday that the world's second-largest economy grew 4.7% year-on-year in April-June, slowing from 5.3% in the previous three months while recording the weakest growth since the third quarter of 2023.
🟢 China Stimulus
Speculations that China could roll out stimulus measures to boost economic performance could also render Gold positive in the near term.
🟢 Weak US Treasury Bonds
In Tuesday’s trading so far, Gold price is gathering strength for the next push higher even as the US Dollar stages a modest comeback. The rebound in the USD/JPY pair could be attributed to the USD uptick. However, weak US Treasury bond yields continue to support the non-yielding Gold price.
🟢 Core Retail Sales Data today
Later in the day, the US Retail Sales report and Fedspeak will grab the eyeballs, as traders look to seal in a September Fed rate cut. Weaker-than-expected US Retail Sales data could reinforce the USD selling, lifting the Gold price northward.
🟢 Key Economic Data today:
16:30 USD Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Jun) 0.1% -0.1%
16:30 USD Export Price Index (MoM) (Jun) -0.6%
16:30 USD Import Price Index (MoM) (Jun) 0.2% -0.4%
16:30 USD Retail Control (MoM) (Jun) 0.4%
16:30 USD Retail Sales (MoM) (Jun) -0.3% 0.1%
18:00 USD Business Inventories (MoM) (May) 0.4% 0.3%
18:00 USD Retail Inventories Ex Auto (May) 0.0% 0.3%
20:00 USD Atlanta Fed GDPNow (Q2) 2.0% 2.0%
🟢 Crucial Price Zones today:
🔻BZ $2407/2385
🔺SZ $2450/2469
Analysis by Piyush Ratnu Gold Market Research
(Range witnessed: $2407-2424-2442)
Projected by us in advance since last Thursday
Verify at: https://www.reddit.com/r/prgoldanalysis/comments/1e19xbw/why_xauusd_price_breached_2424_after_reversing/
Gold price is looking to extend previous gains early Tuesday, having clinched a new two-month high at $2,440 a day ago. Growing expectations that a US Federal Reserve (Fed) interest-rate cut in September is a done deal continue to underpin the non-interest-bearing Gold price.
🟢 Powell's Comments
Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s comments affirmed bets for a rate reduction in September after he said Monday that the central bank will not wait until inflation hits 2% to lower interest rates. The Fed is looking for “greater confidence” that inflation will return to the 2% level, Powell added.
Those remarks by the Fed Chief fueled a fresh leg down in the US Dollar (USD) alongside the US Treasury bond yields, driving Gold price back toward an all-time high of $2,450 zone.
🟢 Trump Assassination Attempt
Earlier, yesterday, Gold price witnessed some corrective moves, as the Greenback took advantage of risk-aversion induced by the weekend’s assassination attempt on ex-US President Donald Trump during his Pennsylvania rally. Investors digested the fateful Trump attack and ramped up the odds of his win in the US Presidential race.
🟢 China Second Quarter GDP
Further, investors flocked to safety in the USD following China’s second-quarter GDP miss in Asian hours on Monday. Data released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) showed Monday that the world's second-largest economy grew 4.7% year-on-year in April-June, slowing from 5.3% in the previous three months while recording the weakest growth since the third quarter of 2023.
🟢 China Stimulus
Speculations that China could roll out stimulus measures to boost economic performance could also render Gold positive in the near term.
🟢 Weak US Treasury Bonds
In Tuesday’s trading so far, Gold price is gathering strength for the next push higher even as the US Dollar stages a modest comeback. The rebound in the USD/JPY pair could be attributed to the USD uptick. However, weak US Treasury bond yields continue to support the non-yielding Gold price.
🟢 Core Retail Sales Data today
Later in the day, the US Retail Sales report and Fedspeak will grab the eyeballs, as traders look to seal in a September Fed rate cut. Weaker-than-expected US Retail Sales data could reinforce the USD selling, lifting the Gold price northward.
🟢 Key Economic Data today:
16:30 USD Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Jun) 0.1% -0.1%
16:30 USD Export Price Index (MoM) (Jun) -0.6%
16:30 USD Import Price Index (MoM) (Jun) 0.2% -0.4%
16:30 USD Retail Control (MoM) (Jun) 0.4%
16:30 USD Retail Sales (MoM) (Jun) -0.3% 0.1%
18:00 USD Business Inventories (MoM) (May) 0.4% 0.3%
18:00 USD Retail Inventories Ex Auto (May) 0.0% 0.3%
20:00 USD Atlanta Fed GDPNow (Q2) 2.0% 2.0%
🟢 Crucial Price Zones today:
🔻BZ $2407/2385
🔺SZ $2450/2469
Piyush Lalsingh Ratnu
The Gold price (XAU/USD) trades with mild gains on Wednesday during the early European session. The growing speculation that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) is likely to start cutting rates as early as September continues to support the non-yielding metal. Furthermore, political uncertainties within Europe and globally might boost Gold price, a traditional safe-haven asset.
On the other hand, the pause of China's central bank Gold purchases for a second consecutive month might prompt traders to reduce bullish bets in the yellow metal as China is the world's largest gold consumer. Investors will keep an eye on the second semi-annual testimony by Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell on Wednesday, along with speeches by the Fed's Michelle Bowman and Austan Goolsbee. On Thursday, the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation data will be closely monitored. This data might offer more clarity on the US interest rate path.
Powell Testimony: Key Takeaways
Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell said in testimony Tuesday to Congress that the most recent inflation data showed some modest further progress and "more good data" could open the door to interest rate cuts.
Powell emphasized that the central bank will continue to make decisions on monetary policy meeting by meeting, adding that holding interest rates too high for too long could jeopardize economic growth.
Fed Chair Powell stated that “elevated inflation is not the only risk we face,” warning that lowering interest rates too little or too soon could put the economy at risk. He added that while it’s possible to hike rates if the data supports it, the most likely direction would be to “begin to loosen policy at the right moment."
Powell further stated that inflation readings over the first three months of this year did not boost Fed officials’ confidence that inflation was coming under control.
World Gold Council (WGC) revealed that Gold exchange-traded funds (ETFs) experienced a second month of inflows in June. The WGC stated that total fund holdings rose by around 18 tonnes to 3,106 tonnes.
This contrasts with the People’s Bank of China’s (PBoC) decision not to buy Gold in June as it did in May. China held 72.80 million troy ounces of the precious metal at the end of June.
Key Economic Data ahead:
15:00 USD OPEC Monthly Report
17:30 GBP BoE MPC Member Pill Speaks
18:00 USD Fed Chair Powell Testifies
18:30 USD Crude Oil Inventories 0.700M -12.157M
18:30 USD Cushing Crude Oil Inventories 0.345M
19:30 GBP BoE MPC Member Mann Speaks
20:00 USD Atlanta Fed GDPNow (Q2) 1.5% 1.5%
21:00 USD 10-Year Note Auction 4.438%
22:30 USD FOMC Member Bowman Speaks
Key Economic Data Tomorrow:
16:30 USD Continuing Jobless Claims 1,858K
16:30 USD Core CPI (MoM) (Jun) 0.2% 0.2%
16:30 USD Core CPI (YoY) (Jun) 3.4% 3.4%
16:30 USD CPI (MoM) (Jun) 0.1% 0.0%
16:30 USD CPI (YoY) (Jun) 3.1% 3.3%
16:30 USD Initial Jobless Claims 236K 238K
19:30 USD FOMC Member Bostic Speaks
21:00 USD 30-Year Bond Auction 4.403%
22:00 USD Federal Budget Balance (Jun) -347.0B
XAUUSD: Crucial Price Stops:
🔺SZ $2400/2424/2442
🔻BZ $2332/2323/2300
On the other hand, the pause of China's central bank Gold purchases for a second consecutive month might prompt traders to reduce bullish bets in the yellow metal as China is the world's largest gold consumer. Investors will keep an eye on the second semi-annual testimony by Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell on Wednesday, along with speeches by the Fed's Michelle Bowman and Austan Goolsbee. On Thursday, the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation data will be closely monitored. This data might offer more clarity on the US interest rate path.
Powell Testimony: Key Takeaways
Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell said in testimony Tuesday to Congress that the most recent inflation data showed some modest further progress and "more good data" could open the door to interest rate cuts.
Powell emphasized that the central bank will continue to make decisions on monetary policy meeting by meeting, adding that holding interest rates too high for too long could jeopardize economic growth.
Fed Chair Powell stated that “elevated inflation is not the only risk we face,” warning that lowering interest rates too little or too soon could put the economy at risk. He added that while it’s possible to hike rates if the data supports it, the most likely direction would be to “begin to loosen policy at the right moment."
Powell further stated that inflation readings over the first three months of this year did not boost Fed officials’ confidence that inflation was coming under control.
World Gold Council (WGC) revealed that Gold exchange-traded funds (ETFs) experienced a second month of inflows in June. The WGC stated that total fund holdings rose by around 18 tonnes to 3,106 tonnes.
This contrasts with the People’s Bank of China’s (PBoC) decision not to buy Gold in June as it did in May. China held 72.80 million troy ounces of the precious metal at the end of June.
Key Economic Data ahead:
15:00 USD OPEC Monthly Report
17:30 GBP BoE MPC Member Pill Speaks
18:00 USD Fed Chair Powell Testifies
18:30 USD Crude Oil Inventories 0.700M -12.157M
18:30 USD Cushing Crude Oil Inventories 0.345M
19:30 GBP BoE MPC Member Mann Speaks
20:00 USD Atlanta Fed GDPNow (Q2) 1.5% 1.5%
21:00 USD 10-Year Note Auction 4.438%
22:30 USD FOMC Member Bowman Speaks
Key Economic Data Tomorrow:
16:30 USD Continuing Jobless Claims 1,858K
16:30 USD Core CPI (MoM) (Jun) 0.2% 0.2%
16:30 USD Core CPI (YoY) (Jun) 3.4% 3.4%
16:30 USD CPI (MoM) (Jun) 0.1% 0.0%
16:30 USD CPI (YoY) (Jun) 3.1% 3.3%
16:30 USD Initial Jobless Claims 236K 238K
19:30 USD FOMC Member Bostic Speaks
21:00 USD 30-Year Bond Auction 4.403%
22:00 USD Federal Budget Balance (Jun) -347.0B
XAUUSD: Crucial Price Stops:
🔺SZ $2400/2424/2442
🔻BZ $2332/2323/2300
Piyush Lalsingh Ratnu
Ample gold market liquidity
Global gold trading volumes across various markets averaged US$195bn/day in June, 9.5% down m/m. Over-the-counter (OTC) trading activities rose by 8.6% compared to May – LBMA trades were the main driver, signalling robust demand globally. In contrast, exchange-traded derivatives saw a -32% m/m plunge: volumes at COMEX fell by -35% m/m and Shanghai futures trading continued to cool (-24%). Gold ETF trading volumes saw a contraction of 15%m/m, mainly due to North American funds.
Despite the decline in June, global gold market liquidity averaged US$210bn/day, remaining well above Q1(US$182bn/day) and 2023 (US$163bn/day). Rising OTC trading activities, mainly at the LBMA, together with surges in Shanghai Futures Exchange and the North American gold ETF market were main H1 contributors.
COMEX total net longs remained stable at 767t by the end of June, a 1t m/m decline. Meanwhile money manager net longs rose further, reaching 575t at the end of June, a 3% increase m/m and the highest month-end value since February 2020.
Total net longs and money manager net longs have risen in H1 by 13% and 36% respectively – the strong gold price performance and various uncertainties on multiple fronts may have attracted investors.
Global gold trading volumes across various markets averaged US$195bn/day in June, 9.5% down m/m. Over-the-counter (OTC) trading activities rose by 8.6% compared to May – LBMA trades were the main driver, signalling robust demand globally. In contrast, exchange-traded derivatives saw a -32% m/m plunge: volumes at COMEX fell by -35% m/m and Shanghai futures trading continued to cool (-24%). Gold ETF trading volumes saw a contraction of 15%m/m, mainly due to North American funds.
Despite the decline in June, global gold market liquidity averaged US$210bn/day, remaining well above Q1(US$182bn/day) and 2023 (US$163bn/day). Rising OTC trading activities, mainly at the LBMA, together with surges in Shanghai Futures Exchange and the North American gold ETF market were main H1 contributors.
COMEX total net longs remained stable at 767t by the end of June, a 1t m/m decline. Meanwhile money manager net longs rose further, reaching 575t at the end of June, a 3% increase m/m and the highest month-end value since February 2020.
Total net longs and money manager net longs have risen in H1 by 13% and 36% respectively – the strong gold price performance and various uncertainties on multiple fronts may have attracted investors.
Piyush Lalsingh Ratnu
WGC: GOLD ETF FLOWS: June 2024
Highlights
Following the strongest month since May 2023, global gold ETFs have now seen inflows two months in a row; in June, notable European and Asian buying offset outflows from North America
Although June and May inflows helped limit global gold ETFs’ y-t-d losses to US$6.7bn (-120t), this remains the worst H1 since 2013 – both Europe and North America saw hefty outflows while Asia was the only region with inflows
A stronger gold price and recent inflows pushed the total AUM to US$233bn, but collective holdings remain near their lowest since 2020
Trading volumes across different gold markets witnessed a mild decline in June; however, the H1 average remains well above its 2023 level as OTC and futures trading were exceptionally active.
Regional overview
North America continued to see mild outflows, shedding US$573mn in June. The dollar strength and continued equity rally may have drawn investor attention away from gold despite falling Treasury yields.3 Nonetheless, flare-ups in geopolitical risk prompted sporadic inflows, partially offsetting larger outflows during the month.
North America saw outflows of US$4.9bn during H1, the largest in three years. However, a 13% rise in the gold price during H1 also resulted in a 7.7% increase in North America’s total AUM. Meanwhile, the region’s collective holdings reduced by 78t.
European funds added US$1.4bn in June, the second consecutive month of inflows. This helped further narrow Europe’s H1 outflows to US$4.9bn. The region’s central banks adopted a different path to that of the US Fed. For instance, in June, the European Central Bank delivered its first rate cut for almost five years whilst the Swiss National Bank lowered rates for the second time this year.4 In the UK, the Bank of England hinted that a potential cut was on the cards but left rates unchanged following a surprise general election announcement. As such, lowering yields were a key contributor to the region’s inflows. Additionally, falling equities and political uncertainties related to elections in the UK and France, which sparked notable inflows there, also pushed up investor interest in gold.5
Nonetheless, 2024 saw the worst first half for European funds since 2013 (-US$8bn). Despite a 6% fall in holdings, total AUM of European funds experienced a 6.3% rise during the first half, thanks to the higher gold price.
Asia extended its inflow streak to 16 months, attracting US$560mn in June. Similar to previous months, Asian inflows were mainly driven by China, which added US$429mn in the month. Among factors that kept Chinese investor interest in gold elevated, we believe persistent weaknesses in stocks and the property sector, as well as continued depreciation in the RMB were highly relevant. Japan also witnessed its 16th consecutive monthly inflow in June, primarily supported by a weakening yen.
Asia registered inflows of US$3.1bn in H1, significantly outpacing all other markets and the only region witnessing positive flows. This represents the strongest ever H1 for Asian funds, mainly driven by record-level inflows into China and Japan. Supported by record-breaking inflows and a higher gold price, the total AUM of Asian funds reached US$14bn, the highest ever, while collective holdings increased by 41t.
Following two consecutive monthly outflows, funds in other regions captured a small inflow of US$37mn in June, led by Australia and South Africa. In H1, funds listed in other regions saw mild outflows, mainly from Turkey.
Highlights
Following the strongest month since May 2023, global gold ETFs have now seen inflows two months in a row; in June, notable European and Asian buying offset outflows from North America
Although June and May inflows helped limit global gold ETFs’ y-t-d losses to US$6.7bn (-120t), this remains the worst H1 since 2013 – both Europe and North America saw hefty outflows while Asia was the only region with inflows
A stronger gold price and recent inflows pushed the total AUM to US$233bn, but collective holdings remain near their lowest since 2020
Trading volumes across different gold markets witnessed a mild decline in June; however, the H1 average remains well above its 2023 level as OTC and futures trading were exceptionally active.
Regional overview
North America continued to see mild outflows, shedding US$573mn in June. The dollar strength and continued equity rally may have drawn investor attention away from gold despite falling Treasury yields.3 Nonetheless, flare-ups in geopolitical risk prompted sporadic inflows, partially offsetting larger outflows during the month.
North America saw outflows of US$4.9bn during H1, the largest in three years. However, a 13% rise in the gold price during H1 also resulted in a 7.7% increase in North America’s total AUM. Meanwhile, the region’s collective holdings reduced by 78t.
European funds added US$1.4bn in June, the second consecutive month of inflows. This helped further narrow Europe’s H1 outflows to US$4.9bn. The region’s central banks adopted a different path to that of the US Fed. For instance, in June, the European Central Bank delivered its first rate cut for almost five years whilst the Swiss National Bank lowered rates for the second time this year.4 In the UK, the Bank of England hinted that a potential cut was on the cards but left rates unchanged following a surprise general election announcement. As such, lowering yields were a key contributor to the region’s inflows. Additionally, falling equities and political uncertainties related to elections in the UK and France, which sparked notable inflows there, also pushed up investor interest in gold.5
Nonetheless, 2024 saw the worst first half for European funds since 2013 (-US$8bn). Despite a 6% fall in holdings, total AUM of European funds experienced a 6.3% rise during the first half, thanks to the higher gold price.
Asia extended its inflow streak to 16 months, attracting US$560mn in June. Similar to previous months, Asian inflows were mainly driven by China, which added US$429mn in the month. Among factors that kept Chinese investor interest in gold elevated, we believe persistent weaknesses in stocks and the property sector, as well as continued depreciation in the RMB were highly relevant. Japan also witnessed its 16th consecutive monthly inflow in June, primarily supported by a weakening yen.
Asia registered inflows of US$3.1bn in H1, significantly outpacing all other markets and the only region witnessing positive flows. This represents the strongest ever H1 for Asian funds, mainly driven by record-level inflows into China and Japan. Supported by record-breaking inflows and a higher gold price, the total AUM of Asian funds reached US$14bn, the highest ever, while collective holdings increased by 41t.
Following two consecutive monthly outflows, funds in other regions captured a small inflow of US$37mn in June, led by Australia and South Africa. In H1, funds listed in other regions saw mild outflows, mainly from Turkey.
Piyush Lalsingh Ratnu
What is T+1 settlement?
As of 2024, the U.S. stock market has transitioned to a T+1 settlement cycle, meaning that most stock transactions now settle one business day after the trade date. This change aims to reduce settlement risk and align with modern technology and practices.
Example of T+1 Settlement
Say that on Monday, June 3, an investor named Sarah decides to sell 100 shares of XYZ Corporation stock at $50 per share. She places the order through her broker and the trade is executed the same day.
Under a "T+1" settlement cycle, the settlement date for this transaction would be Tuesday, June 4, (assuming no holidays). This means that:
Sarah's broker-dealer will deliver the 100 shares of XYZ Corporation stock to the buyer's account on Tuesday, June 4.
The buyer's payment of $5,000 (100 shares × $50 per share) will be delivered to Sarah's account on Tuesday, June 4.
If the trade was executed under a "T+2" settlement cycle, the settlement date would have been Wednesday, June 5 instead, meaning the transfer of securities and cash would have occurred two business days after the trade date, and not one.
#Forex #Trading #XAUUSD #Gold #Shares #markets
As of 2024, the U.S. stock market has transitioned to a T+1 settlement cycle, meaning that most stock transactions now settle one business day after the trade date. This change aims to reduce settlement risk and align with modern technology and practices.
Example of T+1 Settlement
Say that on Monday, June 3, an investor named Sarah decides to sell 100 shares of XYZ Corporation stock at $50 per share. She places the order through her broker and the trade is executed the same day.
Under a "T+1" settlement cycle, the settlement date for this transaction would be Tuesday, June 4, (assuming no holidays). This means that:
Sarah's broker-dealer will deliver the 100 shares of XYZ Corporation stock to the buyer's account on Tuesday, June 4.
The buyer's payment of $5,000 (100 shares × $50 per share) will be delivered to Sarah's account on Tuesday, June 4.
If the trade was executed under a "T+2" settlement cycle, the settlement date would have been Wednesday, June 5 instead, meaning the transfer of securities and cash would have occurred two business days after the trade date, and not one.
#Forex #Trading #XAUUSD #Gold #Shares #markets
Piyush Lalsingh Ratnu
08 July 2024:
XAUUSD crashed from $2381-2351, I had projected price target of $2355/2348, buying at and below $2355 gave us neat exit: CMP $2369 zone (2368)
#XAUUSD #PiyushRatnu #Forex #PRDXB #Gold
Verify at:
https://t.me/c/1654158888/10036
XAUUSD crashed from $2381-2351, I had projected price target of $2355/2348, buying at and below $2355 gave us neat exit: CMP $2369 zone (2368)
#XAUUSD #PiyushRatnu #Forex #PRDXB #Gold
Verify at:
https://t.me/c/1654158888/10036