AI 2023. Meet ChatGPT. - page 208

New comment
 
In an "AIocracy", consumption of cheap products becomes the only choice, because unique products disappear into a frantically growing landfill.
 
It's amazing how easily the market turns on a self-destruct cycle. After all, it was easy to do without these neural networks. All these neural networks that draw and play are useless, because they can't even be monetised by developers because there are too many competitors, but they do a fantastic amount of harm to the market. And nobody controls this process....
 
Реter Konow #:
It's amazing how easily the market turns on a self-destruct cycle. After all, it was easy to do without these neural networks. All these neural networks that draw and play are useless, because they can't even be monetised by developers because there are too many competitors, but they do a fantastic amount of harm to the market. And nobody manages this process...

that's exactly what monetisation smells like.

for example

machine learning: they write through libraries, without knowing what's inside and without turning on their brains.

// neural networks - it's easy, download, switch on and upload.

ii: it writes itself, you don't have to use your head.

it's all a path to degradation, which will lead to the development of consumers, and as a consequence, monetisation of a small group.

 

Exactly, it's not the art that's dying, it's the craft. Now it will be more and more difficult to sell genital smears and painted geometric figures.

Art is crystallising, people are beginning to create for the sake of emotions, sensations and knowledge of their inner world, not for profit and "monetisation". World-famous canvases become the property of the majority, people begin to distinguish canvases stained in drug delirium from beautiful creations of Artists.

And the ways of monetisation will also be ennobled, quality scripts, scene designers will be valued, and artists will not go anywhere from motion pictures.

 
Реter Konow #:
It's amazing how easily the market turns on a self-destruct cycle. After all, it was easy to do without these neural networks. All these neural networks that draw and play are useless, because they can't even be monetised by developers because there are too many competitors, but they do a fantastic amount of harm to the market. And nobody controls this process....

  1. What self-destruction? Why all of a sudden? What are the signs?
  2. What harm do neural networks do to the market? I don't think so. Yes, application of high technologies has made price movement, its prediction and speculators' work much more complicated. If 50-70 years ago it was possible to earn by two MAs and simple TA figures, now almost none of the simple methods works. It has become much more difficult for speculators. But financial markets are not created only for speculators. Nobody prevents you from buying shares of Sber, Amazon or Lukoil futures, exchanging dollars for euros for professional participants, investing in gold for a long term to protect against inflation ....
  3. And who is supposed to manage? At most, it should be regulated, but that is what is done. And traders / robots manage.
 
Grigori.S.B #:

  1. What self-destruction? Why would it do that? What are the signs?
  2. What harm do neural networks do to the market? Imho, none. Yes, application of high technologies has made price movement, its prediction and speculators' work much more complicated. If 50-70 years ago it was possible to earn by two MAs and simple TA figures, now almost none of the simple methods works. It has become much more difficult for speculators. But financial markets are not created only for speculators. Nobody prevents you from buying shares of Sber, Amazon or Lukoil futures, exchanging dollars for euros for professional participants, investing in gold for a long term to protect against inflation ....
  3. And who is supposed to manage? At most, it should be regulated, but that is what is done. And traders / robots manage.
We're talking about the art market. About painting and music. In a neighbouring thread (about Migorney) there is a recent video from Matt Wolff. Check it out. It's worth it.
 
Well, let's not grieve for the art. We have another task at hand. Let's continue our research and move on to chapter four.
 
Реter Konow #:

The crisis of painting and music was visible years ago, when they were still alive. Today, endless generations are turning the once high art into mockery, with all the traits of meaningless consumption. A kind of "gluttony" ... But I won't go into metaphors.

The market lives as long as there is demand. Demand gives birth to supply. Everyone knows the rule - no demand - no supply. There will be no more mass demand for painting, and there will be no more demand for music.... It's enough to say "AI, make me a song with this motive and meaning" or "draw me a picture like this". Free of charge. No labour.

The market is over as soon as it becomes a dumping ground for cheap products. That's what's happening.

I'm not in favour of pessimistic scenarios, but it's not clear how to avoid it.

Will not avoid it.

The "economy" will move one level up . 

Like programming languages . Natural language will be a programming language now.

Movies will become interactive and you'll get a "share" of the revenue for "forking" the movie toward a direction most people liked (watched).

Etc . Why ? Because 

a. people have evolved to find meaning 

b. there is an incentive to "de-throne" giant corporations for those who do it as well (unless its all done by microsoft...like Deus Ex (the game) predicted)

 

Some additional thoughts :

We are moving to a future where :

  • Human health can improve
  • Human life can be extended
  • Humans will be able to do more
  • But we are also useless

I believe we'll see weird professions emerge :

  • Stem cell donor
  • Health experiment volunteer
  • Space volunteer
  • Transhuman trials volunteer

And also , unfortunately , there will be incentives (at first optional) that will "distribute" rewards if :

  • You don't drive a car
  • You drink a limited amount of water
  • You don't eat certain foods
  • You stay thin
  • You use less electricity

On the side of law , there will be amendments to the tune of "right to experience".

Meaning a human is born , can contribute nothing to society but has the right to experience this world.

Then this law will extend to machines.

To simplify , there will be "points" that humans can use to "experience" things , but, those who have a lesser impact (according to the leaders) to resource reserves they will receive more points. Or the opposite , the "bad behavior" (according to leaders) compounds on the price of goods for a human . For example , if you eat one stake per month it costs 10$ . If you had 3 stakes already it costs 25$ (just for you) etc.

Something similar to the movie "In Time" , sort of . (without the bad acting)

 

Chapter Four.

Invasion of the AI.


To summarise some interesting thoughts that happened to be between chapters of the narrative:

  • Conversational AI: simultaneously hype in media, of little use in practice and useless in engineering. Developed and implemented by major corporations with great enthusiasm, although the revenues they bring them are clearly insignificant. Apparently the corporations have a cunning plan in mind. They are clearly exploiting the general public's interest in AI. It's worth remembering that interest has been shaped by decades of cinema and science fiction, so AI needs little or no advertising. Now tech companies are reaping the harvest, but what's next? As for processor and graphics card developers - they don't care what song to sell computing power to - conversational AI, gaming, VR, mining, robots, manufacturing.... You can always make a speech with which Jensen Huang will go out to the crowd and announce a new processor. The key is to keep the tone up and keep the interest burning. And don't forget the magic words"we're on the cusp of...". Cynical? - Yes.)))))
  • I expected more from the conversational AI. I thought it would turn into a universal multi-software linguistic interface for speech control of any software and equipment. I wrote about it a year ago. However, it hasn't happened yet. I haven't even heard any mention of corporations' intentions to create such an interface, although I constantly monitor the news of the technology world. And what did we get in reality? A talking BEC? A new-fangled reference book? A secretary for mail? An editor for greetings? A toy for leisure? A cheat sheet for homework and exams? And where are the industrial, industrial and manufacturing applications of conversational AI promised by sci-fi? Why isn't it in the service sector? If there is, where? In call centres? Haven't heard of it. Interactive answering machines? - I've heard of it once. Why doesn't it "take root" outside of personal use? As an afterthought, why are bloggers promoting AI to users and not companies? And how can companies use it effectively?
  • Conversational AI certainly generates a strong impact on the psyche. Though maybe it's the hype that generates it..... It's hard to say. Either way, the level of deification of technology has never been higher than in the case of conversational AI. In the beginning, almost everyone is blown away. Then many people start to have violent fantasies or their consciousness plunges into pseudo-scientific delirium. It is hard to get a person out of this state, especially if critical thinking is weak or technical knowledge is insufficient. There is an undoubted effect on the psyche. And in addition, the generation of pictures aggravates it. It's interesting that companies are going out of their way to be able to generate long videos. And why is there a need for a flood of stamped videos on YouTube? What's the need? Who would want to waste precious time watching a useless generation of an hour and a half long videos? Okay, you can watch it once, for the sake of interest, but then what to do with it? The developers do not comment on it....
  • It is known that the subconsciousness of the masses is oriented to the "Grail", and Business is oriented to the masses. If people are interested in films and pictures - there are companies, developers, sellers and stampers who strive to create for them a film and picture "Grail" - let them watch endlessly. It does not matter that the market of painting and cinematography will collapse, but every lazy man will have his "personal Hollywood" and he will easily generate a film or a picture. Quality, meaning, moral, message, dramaturgy- it doesn't matter, the main thing is that it's a lot and free. Let's give him endless gifts and happiness! Manna from Heaven. Simply put: AI provides a cheap and inexhaustible Grail, squeezing the market for exclusive products. Infinite gifts eventually turn into an endless dump, in which the value of works as a conceptirrevocably disappears. There are no more bad or good works - all generations belong to one author - AI. Man is only the "customer".
  • From the above-mentioned thoughts a theory about"stages of market life" was born: The market is born with the emergence of an exclusive - a new, unique product. The exclusive carries a special value, provides interest and the beginning of trade. It is then copied and repeated many times to expand the boundaries of trade. Over time, generations of copies gradually lose the details and nuances of the original, but in return provide a steady increase in their numbers and scaling sales. At a later stage, the public becomes accustomed to copies and accepts them as the standard, i.e. as a product of widespread consumption (consumerism). The consumer goods are stamped and distributed, continuing to supplant the Exclusive (i.e. its origin). It squeezes quantity. Sometimes the masses are indoctrinated through subconsciousness with a certain dislike for the exclusive, so that they are not too critical of the stuff they are sold instead( classical music and paintings are a good example). The amount of consumer goods is growing and they are getting cheaper. Industry, meanwhile, develops and implements more efficient and faster ways to produce/generate consumer goods in order to increase production, scale commerce and increase sales. The product becomes even cheaper. A spiral ensues - lower revenues from cheaper prices stimulate higher output and further accelerate the price fall. Sellers try to compensate for the decline in revenues by pushing consumer goods output to a new peak. Asa result , - there is a consumer "Grail" (final stage) - the flow of consumer goods becomes endless, exclusives no longerarise, and at the terminal stage - the market dies suffocating in a dump of its own products. In simple language - sellers and manufacturers do not earn, and buyers do not appreciate or spit on the consumer goods. Or stop noticing it.
  • There is a view that we are approaching a limit when the physics and economics of technological processes will not be improved by increasing the computing power of computers and adding new virtual modelling capabilities. When the effective control of the production process will not be fully AI-driven, due to the high degree of virtuality of models honed by numerical optimisation, which will require endless calibrations with the real world. The theoretical space of AI and the physical reality of production diverge even at the stage of twisting/unscrewing a small bolt in a hard-to-reach place in the machine. For a robot to be able to unscrew it, you need fine micromotorics of fingers and clear sensations of the force of pressure on the screwdriver at every moment. Otherwise, you could tear the head of the bolt and it would get stuck. How much computing power would that take? And to strip and splice broken wires and insulate them? I'm not saying it's impossible, but for most industries, buying such high-tech robots instead of hiring simple labourers is completely unprofitable. We'll talk about this in more detail in the part about the profitability of total automation of production facilities....
  • To what extent is AI accelerating technological development? Undoubtedly, AI exists in the "mathematical" dimension. That is, in the theoretical field. Technical development requires practical implementation of theoretical solutions, which means preliminary experiments. Experiments are conducted not according to virtual, but according to real laws of physics in accordance with economic and physical capabilities of scientists. At the same time, errors and human factor are not eliminated. This is the "bottle neck" of technical development, which does not disappear from the application of AI. And computing power, trillions of operations per second, "get stuck" in this " bottle neck". And nothing can be done about it.


Continued tomorrow and new material....



1...201202203204205206207208209210211212213214215216
New comment