ACTIONS news, forecasts, expectations 2022 - page 89

[transcendreamer]

Vitalii Ananev #:

Iran's central bank has been under sanctions for 20 years (the states pocketed 2 billion quid that belonged to the Central Bank of Iran) and people still live. I am now wondering where the retaliatory sanctions are and how they will affect the market. So far, I think we should refrain from buying financial sectors and have a closer look at commodity producers and steel makers. Producers of fertilizers (e.g. Phosagro) feel fine. Europe wants to eat too, and due to higher gas prices, fertilizer prices have risen in Europe. They use natural gas to produce nitrogen fertilisers. (As an alternative to coke gas, a coal from which Europe has recently refused to actively use, and the conversion to a new raw material will cost large amounts of time and finances) A nitrogen is ammonium nitrate, ammonia and more raw material for chemical industry - the production of nitric acid. Nitric acid is the basic component in production of explosives, sulphuric acid, soda and various solvents. So, to ruin the agricultural and chemical sectors is not just shooting yourself in the foot, it is a straight shot in the head.

Well, people in North Korea live ok 😁

And it is probably incorrect to equate account freezing with the concept of pocketing, as ownership of money does not seem to be transferred.

Sanctions reviewer:https://www.rbc.ru/business/26/02/2022/621a20109a79471f8295dade?from=column_1

I agree about metallurgists and commodity producers, the only question is whether the market will give a good price again and under what conditions, buying right now after a bounce is not a good idea.

There are different opinions about the effect of a blocked central bank, on the one hand there are such wonderful factors as considerable amount of accumulated reserves and rather low level of debt to GDP, it is in favour of institutional stability and room for manoeuvre, on the other hand historically there are no cases when during a crisis the main victims would not be households and citizens, it is a historical constant of the region, one of the possible extreme scenarios are described here: https://www.bfm.ru/news/493963

The most important news will probably be when/if they start doing currency repos or just major lending to large state companies to convert into currency, last time the example of Rosneft showed how wildly the exchange rate can fly, now while the Central Bank has announced ruble repos...

Given that it is in the interests of influential exporters and the state budget to have a slow devaluation of the national currency, plus given the previous statements of Togo-Kogo-Name on this issue (an old Lifenews interview) - there is almost no doubt that a staggered progressive devaluation is most likely... the main thing is not to buy with the panicking crowd... growth projection from the 2014-2015 peak area gives a 200 level and an average of 140-150, but obviously some more news/drivers are needed, no such yet...

To the previous question about chips: TMSC is likely to execute sanctions, so fabless national electronics are under attack too.

Next, the interesting question that sometimes comes up about the possibility of default, pointing out that credit swaps (CDS which) have taken off at the third cosmic speed, but they are only instruments ofThe problem is that they have been going up great since January, sovereign debt insurance is very uncomfortable for investors, it's premium=costs which the buyer of the contract pays to the seller for insurance, but that in itself is not yet a sure sign of default, in Turkey insurance rates are even higher, but in fact even the current historically very high CDS rates are not so bad, and the bad will be when/if it reaches 20-30% or higher, then the hardcore will come...

In the mega-crisis year of 2008, the CDS reached 10%, just for the history, now there is no reason to worry about default, considering that the reserves now exceed the external debt, for example, and now the consolidated world partners probably have no strategic goal to bankrupt the Northern Eurasia region.

But shutting down SWIFT and isolating state banks is likely to be hard, and the chain of consequences will be very diverse, though opinions differ too:

Tom Martin, senior portfolio manager at GLOBALT INVESTMENTS in Atlanta: "SWIFT will be painful, and the markets recognise that. We will get constant volatility as all participants will adjust their risk tolerance according to what they think it is about. My guess is that people will move to gold because gold is the traditional hedge in this situation. I think US treasuries of any duration are likely to be a safe haven. And other than that, there is nothing that is not volatile."

Cartel Chamotte, chief market strategist, CORPAY, of Toronto: "We should see the ruble fall, probably above the 86 per dollar mark at the open. With sanctions recently announced that could hurt the Russian economy, investors will abandon ship en masse. And as the central bank is likely to face severe restrictions on currency interventions, the ruble will struggle to find a bottom. Nobody wants to catch a falling knife."

Harry Broadman, chief emerging markets analyst at BERKELEY RESEARCH GROUP in Washington: "Sanctions have many drawbacks, as we know from history. The more comprehensive they can be, the more they cover, the more you increase the likelihood of effectiveness. The more sanctions we get and the wider the coalition of people who impose them, the greater the likelihood of success. But there is no formula."

Former deputy finance minister of the Russian Federation and first deputy chairman of the Central Bank of Russia from 1995 to 1998..: "This means there will be a disaster in the Russian foreign exchange market on Monday. I think they will stop trading and then the exchange rate will be fixed at an artificial level, like in Soviet times." "It's much worse than [the Russian financial crisis] of 1991 because it's not clear under what conditions it can all be undone. It's a very strong decision, the strongest that could be made."

Ross Delston, lawyer and former bank regulator, St. Louis: "From a financial point of view this is the closest thing to a declaration of war. If there was a real hot war between the US and Russia, one would expect such sanctions to be imposed. "This would lead to US and EU banks viewing Russia as toxic, which in turn would be a major impediment to trade with Russia."

Clay Lowery, executive vice president of the Institute of International Finance: "These new sanctions, which include removing several Russian banks from SWIFT and imposing sanctions on Russia's central bank, could severely damage the Russian economy and its banking system. This is likely to exacerbate current banking operations and dollarisation, leading to a sharp sell-off and depletion of reserves. "One of the biggest impacts on the global economy is likely to be trade. While details of how the new sanctions will affect energy are still emerging, we know that sanctions on its central bank will make it difficult for Russia to export energy and other goods. We could see commodity prices rise as a result."

Dennis Dick, head of market structure and trading at BRIGHT TRADING LLC, in Las Vegas: "I think the whole world is trying to find a way to clearly fix or at least stop what is happening in Ukraine without physical intervention. "Any action they can take to avoid sending troops in there is likely to be seen by Wall Street as a positive. "Is the worst for Wall Street behind us? I tend to think it is."

Edward Moya, senior markets analyst at OANDA in New York: "This will lead to what happened with Iran and the devastating effect on their economy, and it is likely to cause a major shock to global financial markets when we open on Sunday night." "I think a lot of traders are kind of reassured that the US and Europe are not taking a hard line and that they are really focused on protecting the current economic situation and not taking a serious hit to the financial system. This action is going to be really hard to digest and it's really going to hit a lot of investors' nerves... a lot of the bounces we saw in the second half of last week are going to be wiped out."

[Yuriy Zaytsev]

Yuriy Zaytsev #:

For the time being I am looking at a BAY, but definitely with a withdrawal to a CU

It's down too low

--

wait for 03/03/2022

I think there is a chance of an uptrend

On scattered news data downside probability in the short term.

[transcendreamer]

Yuriy Zaytsev #:

According to scattered news reports, the probability is down in the short term.

Yes, the fun is still to come...

According to the contrarian principle of investing it follows: the worse the better, capitalists should look for the gloomiest situations to buy what has fallen harder but is still viable, and conversely for a favourable consensus a high price will have to be paid.

[Yuriy Zaytsev]

transcendreamer #:

Yes, there will be more fun...

According to the contrarian principle of investing it follows: the worse the better, capitalists should look for the gloomiest situations to buy what has fallen harder but still has viability, and conversely for a favourable consensus a high price will have to be paid.

Only from a trading perspective.

Sharp and inadequately priced assets should be traded with the prospect for next years.

Just all these trades will pay off well over the years.

...

If tomorrow the APPLE iPhone suddenly becomes worth 0.50 cents, for whatever reason, it might be worth buying a couple of cases.

[Yuriy Zaytsev]

OPS, URGENT!

Media: talks looming, CELL signal could be abruptly cancelled.

[[Deleted]]

Yuriy Zaytsev #:

OPS, URGENT!

Media: talks looming, CELL signal could be abruptly cancelled.

Negotiations are already in their second day - they can't agree on a location, as far as I'm concerned CELL is concerned.

[Vitaly Muzichenko]

Negotiations have been cancelled.

[Sergey Gridnev]

Vitaly Muzichenko #:
Negotiations have been cancelled.

I don't think so.

[Vitaly Muzichenko]

Sergey Gridnev #:
I don't think so.

looking for another location, no deal yet

[transcendreamer]

I wonder how the partial SWIFT shutdown will be assessed at the opening tomorrow...