ACTIONS news, forecasts, expectations 2022 - page 72
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If this keeps up, and a trillion capitalisations a day (or more?) then we will soon see very interesting prices to buy...
If this keeps up and a trillion of capitalisation flies in a day (or more?) then we will soon see very interesting prices to buy...
Do you suppose we will pick up sber from 189 - 170 160 150 140 130 120 100, 50 ?
just informationally:
Finance ministry has Sber from the 189.44 level at 2.4 trillion which is over 50%
On the catch, Sber was 184.30 today
Russian stock market tumbles 10.5-13%
The Russian stock market on Monday collapsed to the levels of late November 2020 on the MosExchange andRTSindicesdue to the military escalation of the situation in Donbass, where shelling of the territories of the unrecognised Donetsk and Luhansk people's republics continues. The drop in the indicators at the peak of the sell-off was the largest since March 2020, with trading volumes close to record highs.Monday in Asia, negative equity indexes prevailed (Australian ASX Australia gained 0.1%, JapaneseNikkei 225 declined 0.8%, ChineseShanghai Composite remained unchanged, Hong KongHang Seng lost 0.7%), Europe was trading in the red zone, US stock futures were down. US markets are closed today due to the holiday (Presidents' Day).
The oil market returned to growth in the evening.
The Western media report that the parties involved in the consultations on Iran's nuclear programme are close to an agreement on the renewal of the 2015 deal. The negotiations are expected to result in the lifting of sanctions on fuel exports, after which Tehran will be able to supply around 1m bpd of oil to the international market.
In addition to Iran, market participants' attention is focused on eastern Ukraine, where observers of the OSCE Special Monitoring Mission have recorded an increase in ceasefire violations by the parties to the conflict in Donbas in their daily report.
The Moscow Exchange Index fell 10.5 per cent to 3036.88 points as of 18:50 Moscow time.
The RTS index collapsed by 13.21 per cent to 1,207.50 points.
>>> Russian stock market tumbles 10.5-13%
This is strong!
Tomorrow it's either on the fence and watch, or go with someone and head in the same direction - but with whom is still a question.
Do you suppose we'll pick up Sber from 189 - 170 ?
just informational:
Ministry of Finance has Sber from the 189.44 level at 2.4 trillion which is over 50%
On the catch the Sber was 184.30 today
Given certain known events... which paves the way for a repeat of some of the scenarios of some years... one could well imagine that at 150... in the long run even 100 I wouldn't be surprised... the only question is the timing of events as the conflict unfolds and the degree of invasiveness... there seems to be no doubt now that there will be an escalation and new sanctions...
entry at the opening (the signal is obvious) + 2 shares with an even bigger lot + evening entry + the smallest one and ejection at the stop
and there is practically all the movement of the day
Mathematics probably does not calculate such things 🤔 and probably can only be compared with comparable past events and the reaction of markets to them...
For example, how could one put an event factor into the previously mentioned quantile regression? That's in addition to having an adequate fair value model, which in itself is a whole separate challange.
If we take the worst historical fall for Sber is around 85% on the edges, nowadays we have around 50% (from the historical maximum) but it is probably not very correct to do so directly because the maximum was in October and also the profit flow of the issuer has to be considered and 2008 was globally difficult, so other factors are added to it.
+++
Right - no divergence works here, no triangles and all sorts of technical stuff, it works in a normal market.
Now it's simple news analysis and a proper understanding of the news. And it's better to be able to predict events.
The next step is obvious and logically should take place, and it should most probably lead to another downward move. ( step has not yet been taken )
After that, it may be a step V2, after which the Uber at 50 may look like a welcomed hail ( I'm exaggerating, but maybe )
Instead of step 2 it could be of course step V2.1 release 1 , but logically it will also go down.
I don't know if I managed to read this cipher :) , there is absolutely no desire to take a broom and takzik.
Yes now probably no one has any doubts that the so-called next step will happen, the question is timing.... my confidant (or rather my confidant's confidant) told me the other day there will be some interesting and very unpleasant for the economy of local households, don't even think about getting out of the currency or buying any issuers of Northern Eurasia... on the other hand it was already seen that the dollar rush is there, and panic selling is there, and the crowd as we know most often loses out to the common masses ... continuing this line of thought, as well as the fact that markets tend to be nervous and overestimate the significance of events, it can be assumed that there will soon be some kind of pullback... and in the future there could be a new rollback 😁 but we don't know that yet... there is of course a hypothesis that markets have already priced in future sanctions, but it is inaccurate...
Getting into the heads of politicians mathematically would be difficult - that's true.
But taking apart events from the not too distant past is also the right idea and according to the knowledge of history the mood is more bearish.
Entry in such volatility in buy is with a very short stop... and go straight to Buy... but most probably it will be bearish.
Entry in the sell - well, let's say without events - most probably the same, because bulls may move up, in the absence of events.
I think (imo) the technical analysis will start working later, when the situation will settle.
(ihmo) wait for an answer to what was announced today and try to get it right.
No, no, no, too nervous, to hell with that kind of pips, just need to identify the bottom level, and draw lines for buying with an overall risk limit.