A pattern. - page 11
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Anatoly, which one? Define somehow. :)
If the question is for me, my name is Yuri. As far as entry is concerned, there are many options. But the most accurate one, I think, is to enter with a limit order on a bounce from a level. This is the first chart I saw. Six bounces from one level and a seventh is coming. Twice the price has broken through the level, it means 2 stoplosses.
You can enter the market whenever you like - that's not important at all. The important thing is to get out of it at the right time - that is the key to success.
yes, a very popular misconception )
If the question is for me, my name is Yuri. As far as entry is concerned, there are many options. But the most accurate one, I think, is to enter with a limit order on a bounce from a level. This is the first chart I saw. Six bounces from one level and a seventh is coming. Price has broken the level twice, so two stoplosses.
Sorry, it's been a while.
Give me the level.
You can enter the market whenever you like - that's not important at all. The important thing is to get out of it on time, that is really the key to success.
This is not a pattern, but it's not a simple moment.
Let's consider a simple situation: The trader enters the market on the last momentum of the trend, when all the trend indicators will show a "correct" signal to enter. As you understand, the result will be logical - minus in the trade, confirming the time-tested truth: "do not jump in the train that's leaving"... So, "enter whenever you want" is not a good decision.
In general, both "entry" and "exit" have to be carefully calculated...
This is not a pattern, but the moment is not simple.
Consider a simple situation: the trader enters the market on the last momentum of the trend, when all the trend indicators will show the "right" signal to enter. As you understand, the result will be logical - minus in the transaction, confirming the time-tested truth: "do not jump in the departing train" ... So, "enter at any time" - is not exactly the right decision.
In general, both 'entry' and 'exit' have to be carefully calculated...
In general, the statistics says the opposite, I have not collected it - it came to me by itself from traders, a lot of contacts, and I have not been in forex since yesterday. So entries can be made most correct, but there are big problems with withdrawal: I under-exited, over-exited (very rare) and did not take profit, but this is if you use stops (market exit). If there are no stops, the exit is often helped by dealing (GameOver).
So entries are less important than exits.
Most often the statistics say the opposite, I did not collect them - they came to me by themselves from traders, a lot of contacts, and I have not been in forex since yesterday. I have made many good contacts with dealers, but I have not managed to keep them that way.
So entries are less important than exits.
That's right - exits are more important than entry, but here the problem is... - market entry is based on the nearest historical data (bars) with the hope that TS has a positive expectation in this situation, and the exit, it turns out, is doubly uncertain, because it should have even further prediction from the TS entry
Exits by TP and SL is one way to select exits for the TS from the market, but this method does not allow evaluating the risks of the TS - each market entry is a risk, if we have a small TP and SL - then we limit the profitability of TP, but increase the risks of SL
It would seem to increase the TP and the SL and here is the Grail, but no, it will reduce the expectation, because to enter the market with a minimum lag on the TC signal is unlikely, but if TP = SL, then get the SL will be more likely, there is more "game" without the SL - I have already passed this stage, no point - just a matter of time when Nikolai Marzhov comes .....)))
SZS: that's the year I keep watching market forums and more and more I get convinced the only way to get a profit is money management - even lovers of martingale and grid orders are right in this case - you trade at risk and that's the whole TS, there are slightly less profitable and less risky money management schemes - so-called order pyramiding and position averaging, but we reduce risk there, reduce profit in one order series.
So, the bottom line is that entries do not matter, exits without sensible entries are an illusion, only money management is left;)
that's right - exits are more important than entry, but there's a problem here... - market entry is based on the nearest historical data (bars) with the hope that the TS has a positive mathematical expectation in this situation, and the exit, it turns out, is doubly undefined, because it must have an even further forecast from the TS entry
Exits by TP and SL is one way to select exits for the TS from the market, but this method does not allow evaluating the risks of the TS - each market entry is a risk, if we have a small TP and SL - then we limit the profitability of TP, but increase the risks of SL
It would seem to increase the TP and the SL and here is the Grail, but no, it will reduce the expectation, because to enter the market with a minimum lag on the TC signal is unlikely, but if TP = SL, then get the SL will be more likely, there is more "game" without the SL - I have already passed this stage, no point - just a matter of time when Nikolai Marzhov comes .....)))
SZS: that's the year I keep watching market forums and more and more I get convinced the only way to get a profit is money management - even lovers of martingale and grid orders are right in this case - you trade at risk and that's the whole TS, there are slightly less profitable and less risky money management schemes - so-called order pyramiding and position averaging, but we reduce risk there, reduce profit in one order series.
So, the bottom line is that entries do not matter, exits without sensible entries are illusion, only money management is left;)
All this is correct, but to do it all, you have to be a programmer to develop hundreds of variants of different strategies and use the tester to see which of them is the best, testing them in real trading and manually.
And for this we need to work for many years.
Probably one can not only practically, but theoretically prove that there is a trading strategy, which provides profit with the ratio"monthly profit/maximumdrawdown" as 2:1.
I do not agree with that. I have been programming for a long time, and sometimes a task comes up, but if the client really wants to trade with a robot, his eye is much quicker to see which of them is the best, checking them in the real world and manually.
But if the trader really wants to trade by a robot his eye is much quicker to see where the robot would trade better, maybe I am not that attentive.
i have probably already checked about a hundred strategies, all of them are the same, either the entries are bad or the exits are bad.
As for the option to trade on several strategies simultaneously - perhaps the most risk-free, but then again, the lower the risk, the lower the return - that's my vision
ZS: Maybe we're really suffering here nonsense? looking for the grail, but really make a trading robot with a yield of 10% per month? - i can hardly find such a % anywhere else in the real sector.... I'll think about it.
Thanks for the kind words, Vladimir, the topic is both interesting and hackneyed. However, no one has managed to formulate the right answer. The regularity, of course, exists, but it does not allow earning by the here-and-now principle, as traders would like to do. The regularities are shown on a long time interval. For example, on TF D1 the regularity is formed within the range of 300-330 daily bars. The resulting profit is comparable to the refinancing rate, which makes such a pattern unattractive. I think we need to think about how to get rid of the pattern of plum and learn to work at least with a profit comparable to a bank deposit. For us it is 10 percent per annum.
Now, my thoughts on the search for patterns:
1.It is useless to look for patterns in history, not confirmed by theoretical prerequisites - you must first develop an idea in what direction to dig and why you need to dig so;
2. Accept the fact that there are no reliable patterns on small TFs, and you have to fully rely on personal experience and intuition of market perception;
3. 3. Even if you have identified a pattern and developed a strategy, you need to muster enough courage not to deviate from the chosen path, which I cannot do myself. I have spoiled a lot myself with my false vision against a proven strategy and interference in the ATS process. I will list some directions to look for patterns that give positive mat expectations over a long period of time:
a - Regression model;
b - Analysis of market and current prices by known market theory;
c - Estimation of the total strength of Bulls and Bears.
Good to see you in good health).
I disagree with you on point 1. In order to make a decision to place any order, be it market or limit one, we always do some analysis where to place it. You should not even think about the fact that you are applying some regularities, you are applying them subconsciously, applying your previous experience. A person not experienced in details will not do so with any instrument chart due to the lack of skills in identifying these very patterns. It may be a support line or a breakthrough of a trend line, some MAs and so on.
The regularities in the price behavior exist at any timeframe, but not everyone is able to recognize them. The more trading experience, the more patterns you will notice on charts to make decisions about entering and exiting the market. That's how it is, experience is the head.
ZS: maybe we're really suffering here nonsense? looking for the grail, but is it realistic to make a trading robot with a yield of 10% per month? - i can hardly find such a % anywhere else in the real sector.... I'll give it some more thought.
You should think about it. It's not that hard to earn 0.5% a day if your deposit is not too big.
It will be 10 percent a month, and it may be up to 100 percent a year if you take a holiday.) It's quite realistic, but with a big deposit you need a reliable broker.