Are you ready to meet the black swan? - page 11

 
Renat Akhtyamov:

It was against TA there.

Hardly anyone was selling....

I had a sell on the pound at 1.2630 or 2650, I saw a price at 1.1370 or 1380 at Herczyk and co, but then they corrected the price) when the twitches were around 1.18-1.21 to buy and sell were given.

 
Nikolai Semko:

"A black swan is ahard-to-predict and rare event that has significant consequences."

Here is an example of one of the black swans that flew to the Swiss franc on 15 January 2015:

The consequences were quite devastating.

You can actually see for yourself.

Here are some numbers on this swan:

  • USDCHF price fell from 1.02275 to 0.65550 in 16 minutes ~ about 36%
  • spread during the fall reached 15178 pips (instead of the standard 12), which amounted to about 22.5% of the Bid price at that moment.

Trading during the Black Swan is suicidal because of the rabid spread.

Even if you have positions open in the right direction, there is no guarantee that you will not get a margin call because of the spread.

When the next black swan arrives - this is the question one wants to know the answer to, but alas...

But I have a feeling: in the next year or two a huge swan will fly in - and it won't be easy...

It is clear that the best way to survive a black swan is not to trade when it arrives.

And of course, there is another big risk: will your broker withstand such amount of margin calls with negative balance?

Even if you were lucky: you had an order opened in the right direction and without takeprofit, you didn't have limit orders, you were not eaten by margin call and you managed to close the deal on time ...
Then the question remains whether your broker will be able to pay back your hard-earned money.

Forewarned is forearmed!

What are your thoughts on black swan protection techniques in EAs? And is it realistic to catch a wave?

I had a sell at 1.02 on USDCHF stop at 1.05, I thought that up to 0.99 and below the pair will go a month and here is such a gift)

 

Black swan!

Why are you hovering over my-o-o-o-o-head?

You'll never get your prey!

Black swan, I'm not yours.


Applause. Curtain.

 
Alexander_K2:

Black swan!

Why are you hovering over my-o-o-o-o-head?

You'll never get your prey!

Black swan, I'm not yours.


Applause. Curtain.

Will you sing about the white swan?

 
Alexandr Saprykin:

Will you sing about the white swan?

I want Murka...
 
Artyom Trishkin:
Murka want...

Just for you:


 
Alexandr Saprykin:

Just for you:


In Grigoryan's performance, I want...
 
Artyom Trishkin:
In Grigoryan's performance I want to ...

One of the forum members of the market forum.


 
Artyom Trishkin:
As performed by Grigoryan, I want to ...

I think that's it:


 
Alexandr Saprykin:

I think that's it:


Is that a Crematorium band?
It's a blatnyak of some kind here :)