[Archive] FOREX - Trends, Forecasts and Consequences (Episode 9: November 2011) - page 54

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s_aullma:
Here, Margarita, I beg to differ with you. There will never be a switch to the mark, nor will there be an exit from the euro zone. They like to talk about that in Germany because life was better under the mark. In the transition to the euro, prices remained in marks, and wages were converted strictly at the exchange rate. No political party is even discussing leaving the eurozone. Even the leftists, who love this kind of slogan, realise that this is not an option for Germany.
Never say never, time will come and things will fall into place, but it could take years. From the history of currency unions not one has survived, even our Great and Powerful USSR, feared by the whole world, lasted long?
 
margaret:
Never say never, time will come and things will fall into place, but it could take years. In the history of currency unions not one has survived, even our Great and Powerful USSR, feared by the whole world, has it survived long?

One did, though :)
 
RekkeR:


A false shepherd, who has recruited a flock, shepherds it not out of vocation, but for pay, purely for material gain, and will not rush to save the flock in a time of need.

Even a true shepherd, shepherds the sheep for wool, meat and yells "news" from the "flock tower" terminal, calling for milking, shearing and slaughtering.

)))


I dunno, I don't know, I can justify why...

So, in the morning, the currency market opened with drop, then the stock market (Germany) opened also with a drop and the eur got even stronger, then Italy placed 12 month bonds, with yield of 6% and after that the ECB got in the market and redeemed Italian bonds - that was a sharp jump up. Then there was the anticipation of the pound rate, thought there might be a surprise like the ECB... As to the downgrade of France I can say one thing: they are the main holders of Italian bonds and the market decided that due to increased interest yield of those bonds (which have already been equated with Greek bonds) the rating agency would downgrade one of the key euro zone countries but the rating agency refused to comment on those rumors and later S&P agency specified that France credit rating remains at AAA so the increase went.

The bad news is that the market is running purely on news and does not even take into account other economic data and technology ... Analysts say it is just a correction to the downward movement.

 
tara:

One did resist, though :)
which one?
 
margaret:
which one?

Swiss Confederation
 
margaret:

... Analysts say this is just a correction to the downward movement.


Is a correction when it is slightly up although, all the time, down?

Let's see what we have:

The level where the consolidation converges is the upper level of all the downtrends. It was formed on November 1 at 14:00. Probably a fluke...

 
S&P accidentally (erroneously) issued a report on the downgrade of France's credit rating. How is that even possible. Or they have the blanks ready to go and just have to press the "Send" button. Apparently some big player missed yesterday's downward move. They are pushing the Euro further.
 

It's no big deal: France has real problems.

Preparing public opinion for their disclosure.

 
The euro fell to its lowest in a month in anticipation of Italy's €5bn annual note issue on Thursday, while loans to Italy had risen to record highs the previous day, Bloomberg reported .

The euro fell to $1.3535 by 9:00 a.m. Moscow time on Thursday from $1.3542 at the close of the previous session in New York. Earlier in trading, the euro fell to its lowest level since 10 October at $1.3515.

The yield on benchmark Italian government bonds (10-year maturity) jumped to an all-time high of 7.25% on Wednesday, rising to 7.48% in trading. Greece, Portugal and Ireland were forced to appeal for financial assistance after the cost of raising money for them exceeded 7%.

The yield on Italy's 12-month bills stood at 3.57% at the previous auction on October 11 and on Wednesday it was already hovering around 8.5% on the secondary market.

Next Monday, Italy is due to float 5-year government bonds.

"The success of these auctions will be critical for the short-term dynamics of the euro. There is a risk of further depreciation of the euro, to $1.30-1.32, over the next week or so," said Commonwealth Bank of Australia's chief currency analyst and head of global economic analysis Richard Grace.
 
tara:


Is a correction when it is slightly up, although, all the time, down?

Let's see what we have:

The level where the consolidation converges is the upper level of all the downtrends. Formed on November 1 at 14:00. Probably a fluke...


If you take into account your sloping lines, then it appears that the eurik has broken through them and now it is time to go up ...
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