The market is a controlled dynamic system. - page 297
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Tractor work schedule
Where are the results of the last sowing season?
Where are the results of last year's planting season?
There have been victories and defeats.
Everything that started in this thread remains in this thread.
Anyway, I haven't deleted anything from here.
.
The current round of the spiral of development has brought fresh thoughts, but unfortunately, this forum will soon be over...
Swiss central bank abruptly releases franc exchange rate
15.01.15 18:33
The Swiss franc's minimum exchange rate against the euro was abruptly abolished on Thursday, January 15, because the cost of maintaining it was too high, the Swiss National Bank (SNB) management said. The regulator had held the minimum exchange rate of 1.20 Swiss francs against the euro for three years by buying up the European currency in large quantities.
The Swiss central bank also lowered the demand deposit rate to minus 0.75 per cent and widened the three-month Libor rate target range to minus 1.25 to minus 0.25 per cent. The decision triggered a sharp rise in the Swiss national currency, threatening the economy with deflation and recession.
2014 was a year of political positioning. The US demonstrated its position by trying by all means to drag President Putin and Russia into war. First it was the war in Syria, later in Ukraine.
The Russian side has also signalled its position by not swallowing the Western bait and buying time. Yes, Russia is suffering from a falling national currency, falling oil prices and its economy is not operating at full capacity. China, on the other hand, has been out of the global spotlight during this period, providing important support for Russia.
By saying "bought time" we meant, paradoxically, that Russia delayed the collapse of the Western financial system. You may ask, why would Russia bother prolonging the life of the Western financial system? The answer is simple - neither Russia nor China were ready for radical change. They may not be "one hundred percent" ready even now, but at least the infrastructure is in place in case they are.
Over the past year, Russia has prepared its own alternative to the SWIFT clearing system in response to sanctions imposed by America. Over the past two weeks, the system has been undergoing testing. The official launch date is set for 15 May 2015. This will allow the country's financial system to function normally in the event that it is cut off from SWIFT.
There are three important circumstances to note here. First, the US does not have enough political capital to isolate Russia, as several European states refuse to go the confrontational route (it is winter and they need Russian gas). Second, SWIFT can no longer be used as an axe hanging over Russia's head because it now has an alternative. And thirdly and finally, the alternative clearing system will have greater speed of money circulation outside the Western system of international settlements. In a worst-case scenario, the new clearing system could be a very tempting substitute, and a significant number of global market participants would not be difficult to persuade to drop out of the Western game.
Once that happens, the dollar will lose its importance and, in fact, its status as a reserve currency.
In addition, Russia and China announced new currency swaps the other day. This was done primarily to support the rouble. The Russian currency immediately reacted to the news with a marked strengthening. The sanctions and oil prices being cut in half by Mr Obama will not default on Russia because their foreign currency reserves are almost equal to their outstanding debt. This is very important. Russia's public debt is only 14 percent of GDP, while the West's debt reaches, if not exceeds, a hundred percent of GDP.
We must also mention the latest increase in demand for the dollar. It has risen by about 15 per cent in six months, and by about 10 per cent in the last two months. This has been the result of speculation in foreign exchange assets. Many commodities, including oil, have been paid for with borrowed dollars. We are talking about short positions in dollars. At sharp price changes traders had to close their positions. Borrowed (short) dollars had to be repaid, which led to a further increase in demand for dollars.
On the first trading day after the New Year, "something somewhere... broke". The dollar rose by almost a full percentage point in a single day. The IMF attributed this to a nine trillion dollar transaction. One percent of that amount equals $90 billion! That means that in one single day, someone "gained" $90 billion and someone "lost" $90 billion.
By a comparable amount (about $100 billion), the USA national debt increased on December 31. Curiously enough, this amount is also comparable to what happens in the gold market: in one year all the mines in the world produce about $100 billion worth of gold! And the US Treasury Department has increased the national debt by that amount in one day - an amount equal to an entire year's worth of gold production... at today's prices.
And lastly, gold was the No. 2 currency on the planet last year; its price fell against the dollar by little more than one percent. What does that mean? It means that gold is going through a similar process to that of the dollar. We should not forget about the tons of "paper gold", which had a very significant impact on the value of the precious metal.
In today's world, volatility is a real killer of the system, and here's why:
Observations of large fluctuations in the dollar, the price of oil, as well as fluctuations in some securities markets, suggest massive margin maintenance requirements and unsecured assets are behind it. The behaviour of the dollar on the FOREX over the past few weeks indicates one of two things: either this is a manifestation of an impending crisis, or someone is deliberately pushing this crisis around. If you add to the puzzle the joint efforts of Russia and China, it becomes clear that these countries are almost ready to break the "swag" of derivatives.
China is preparing to offer the yuan as a reserve currency and Russia is preparing clearing infrastructure mechanisms.
I have been in the middle of a sales averaging with almost 99% drawdown and here I am - 300% profit.)
Well, they saved my deposit, because I was stuck in sales averaging with a drawdown of almost 99%, and here we are - 300% profit. I have to say it feels pretty good, as if the sentence was overturned when the noose is around my neck and I have brought my foot down to kick the stool out from under me ))))
I have been in the middle of a sales averaging with almost 99% drawdown and here I am - 300% profit.)
Well, they saved my deposit, because I was stuck in sales averaging with a drawdown of almost 99%, and here we are - 300% profit. I have to say it feels pretty good, as if the sentence was overturned when the noose is around my neck and I got my foot in the door to knock the stool out from under me ))))
When they write that the dollar is dead, it's a popular omen. For growth.
There is such an omen. However, omens are not a law of nature.
"The fact is, omens come true whether you believe in them or not." (с)