The market is a controlled dynamic system. - page 232
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I agree withavtomat-learn the basics. And in mathematics you should not just read, but understand and solve practical problems. That is, you must take the formula for how probability is calculated (estimated) in practice and which conditions must be met, rather than just taking an abstract definition from the wiki. Look at the requirement of homogeneity and independence of tests when determining probability and how it relates to our practical problem.
I personally care more about the result than the academic wording.
I just wanted to know from you what the process of determining the direction of entry into the market is called. Nothing more. Prediction is out. Probability is out.
What secret are you keeping?
yes probability is the same as prognosis...
yes probability is the same prediction...
I personally care more about the result than the academic wording.
I just wanted to know from you what the process of determining the direction of entry into the market is called. Nothing more. Prediction is out. Probability is out.
What secret are you keeping?
The process of determining the market entry is called analyneticism.) It has nothing to do with trading since determining direction alone will not make a profit. Probability is a number from 0 to 1, not the process of determination, etc. Prediction is when some event in the future and its probability is specified. In systematic trading we bet (predict) that by the results of a series of trades we are likely to be in the black. Predicting the outcome of a single trade is not the goal, and the probabilities are unknown. Frequencies can be calculated, but that is not the goal either.
Avals:
Вот возьмём простую систему на пересечении машек. Покупаем, когда короткая пересекает с бОльшим периодом. Переворачиваемся, когда пересекает в другую сторону. Какое событие прогнозируется когда мы, например, покупаем?
We predict that the price will move in the same direction in which the cross was formed. At the heart of all trades, the prediction is: we open trades because we predict that they will make a profit. There is no need to deny it. Even a monkey who knows nothing about predictions expects (i.e. predicts) that when he presses a button he will get a banana because he has observed a dependence in the past that such action causes a desirable result.
We predict that the price will move in the same direction in which the cross was formed. At the heart of all trades, the prediction is: we open trades because we predict that they will make a profit. There is no need to deny it. Even a monkey who knows nothing about predictions expects (i.e. predicts) that when he presses a button he will get a banana because he has observed a dependence in the past that such action causes a desirable result.
Let's take a simple system on the crossover. We buy when the short one crosses with a longer period. We reverse when it crosses in the other direction. Which event is predicted when, for example, we buy?
We buy when the short one intersects with a larger period. We reverse when it crosses to the other side.
If you're trading like that. I don't envy it. No direction.)
Specify the direction then we can talk about the probability of the event.
Well, if it is acceptable to call a monkey's expectations as a prediction, then the mathematical constructions, whose proofs are substantiated by articles from wikipedia, are not surprising either... And they are also equated with each other ("yes probability is the same prediction")... Although in this phrase (" yes probability is the same prediction") you can see something positive, like "yeswikipedia articles arethe sameexpectations of a monkey". And that's reassuring ;)))
But I have no desire to participate in such a show. But I will be a spectator ;))
We predict that the price will move in the same direction in which the cross was formed. At the heart of all trades, the prediction is: we open trades because we predict that they will make a profit. There is no need to deny it. Even a monkey who knows nothing about predictions expects (i.e. predicts) that when he presses a button he will get a banana because he has observed a dependence in the past that such action causes a desirable result.
A prediction implies an event on which one is betting. The price will "move in the same direction" is not a prediction because it is not precisely known when the event will occur. Price will move up and down))