The market is a controlled dynamic system. - page 233
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Buy when the short crosses with a longer period. Reverse when it crosses in the other direction.
If you're trading like that. I don't envy it. No direction.))
Specify the direction, then we can talk about the probability of the event.
If you didn't understand it either)) I'm buying. The small period crossed the small one from the bottom to the top. And what does my trade have to do with it? It's a simplified example for the uneducated ;)
Avals:
прогноз подразумевает событие на которое ставим. Цена будет "двигаться в том же направлении" это не прогноз так как нет точного определения когда это событие произойдёт. Цена будет двигаться и вверх и вниз))
Prediction does not necessarily imply quantitative prediction.
Prediction does not necessarily imply quantitative prediction.
A prediction in mathematics always implies an unambiguously identifiable event. Are you predicting that the price will go in the direction of an open position? One point has passed and the prediction has been fulfilled?))
Avals:
Прогноз в математике всегда подразумевает однозначно идентифицируемое событие. Вы прогнозируете что цена пойдёт в сторону открытой позици? Один пункт прошла - всё прогноз свершился?))
Yes, if the prediction was "price will go in the direction of the position".
Actually, instead of wasting time understanding the terms, it is better to analyse the errors of the original strategy based on treating the market as a controlled dynamic system.
Yes, if the prediction was "price will go in the direction of the position".
Actually, instead of wasting time understanding the terms, it is better to analyse the errors of the original strategy based on treating the market as a controlled dynamic system.
Yes about the "price will go in the direction of the position" prediction you wrote. I gave you the example of the system on the slices and asked what is predicted there when you enter the market. This answer is incorrect because there is no clear definition of the predicted event. If we consider the question what is forecasted correctly and consistently, we will see that it is not a movement direction or even an outcome of a certain trade, but exactly some positive statistical characteristics of the system during a long series of transactions. The duration and what characteristics depend on many things.
I don't think it is possible to discuss the error of considering the market as a UDF, if there is no understanding even on elementary things.
If you didn't understand it either)) I just wrote: "Buy. The small-period mashka crossed the big-period mashka from bottom to top. And what does my trade have to do with it? This is a simplified example for the uneducated ;)
If I'm an ignoramus, you're completely stupid)
Here's your post. And there was no bottom up.
We buy when the short crosses with a longer period. We flip when it crosses the other way.
The ultimate in teaching the uneducated.
If I'm an ignoramus, you're completely stupid)
Here's your post. And there was no bottom up.
We buy when the short crosses with a longer period. We flip when it crosses the other way.
The height of perfection in teaching the ignorant.
So you didn't figure it out.) Well interpreted in any way (as you like). (I mean, top down or bottom up)). The conclusion would be the same. Don't write without thinking...
i.e. you haven't guessed)) Well interpreted in any way (as you like). (I could have interpreted it from top to bottom or from bottom to top.) The conclusion would be the same. Don't write without thinking...
The process of determining the market entry is called analyneticism.) It has nothing to do with trading, because determination of a direction will not bring any profit separately. Probability is a number from 0 to 1, not the process of determining etc. Prediction is when some event in the future and its probability is specified. In systematic trading we bet (predict) that by the results of a series of trades we are likely to be in the black. Predicting the outcome of a single trade is not the goal, and the probabilities are unknown. Frequencies can be calculated, but that is not the goal either.
I think that trying to determine entry or exit points is a dead end. Depending on the selected TF, the TS should decide by itself how to enter the market (at the beginning of the TF by the indicator signal to buy or sell) or leave it (at any time, when the market changes to the opposite conditions of entry). It seems to me that only such a strict algorithm will help to understand the market and many debatable moments will disappear by themselves.
Regarding forecasts - whether we want to admit it or not - all of our actions are based on forecasts. Even taking a step into the void, the brain predicts that there is solid ground underfoot, and if in fact it will not turn out like that - it is a prediction error, to put it in an exaggerated way. Any dynamic processes must be predicted with one probability or another. Prediction and probability are concepts from different categories of state estimation. They cannot be compared and/or contrasted.
("yes probability is the same prediction").
probabilistic forecasting was meant...