The market is a controlled dynamic system. - page 23
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Have no doubt, out of respect for your views, ready to pedal.
Yes.
https://ru.wikipedia.org/wiki/Эконометрика#.D0.98.D1.81.D1.82.D0.BE.D1.80.D0.B8.D1.8F_.D1.8D.D0.BA.D0.BE.D0.BD.D0.BE.D0.BC.D0.B5.D1.82.D1.80.D0.B8.D0.BA.D0.B8
Despite its potential, econometrics was not supported by many major economists. In the early 1970s Worswick sharply criticised econometricians for their "lack of connection to the concrete facts"[2]. He argued that econometricians "are not so much concerned with inventing means of systematizing and measuring the available facts as they are with creating an incalculable multitude of pretended ways of doing so"[2]. At the same time, F. Brown argued that "the construction of time series regressions is only good for cheating". W. Leontief described econometrics as "an attempt to compensate for the conspicuous Lack of available data by the widespread use of more and more sophisticated statistical techniques". In a similar vein, Hicks said that "the importance of econometric methods in economic theory should not be exaggerated"[2]. And E. Leamer wrote that "there are two things which are better not to see: sausages and econometric estimates".
https://ru.wikipedia.org/wiki/Эконометрика#.D0.98.D1.81.D1.82.D0.BE.D1.80.D0.B8.D1.8F_.D1.8D.D0.BA.D0.BE.D0.BD.D0.BE.D0.BC.D0.B5.D1.82.D1.80.D0.B8.D0.BA.D0.B8
Despite its potential, econometrics was not supported by many major economists. In the early 1970s Worswick sharply criticised econometricians for their "lack of connection with concrete facts"[2]. He argued that econometricians "are not so much concerned with inventing means of systematizing and measuring the available facts as they are with creating an incalculable multitude of pretended ways of doing so"[2]. At the same time, F. Brown argued that "the construction of time series regressions is only good for cheating". W. Leontief described econometrics as "an attempt to compensate for the conspicuous lack of available data by extensive use of more and more sophisticated statistical techniques". In a similar vein, Hicks said that "the importance of econometric methods in economic theory should not be exaggerated"[2]. And E. Leamer wrote that "there are two things which are better not to see: sausages and econometric estimates".
Judging by your posts, you might not have to spin it (except for the purpose of the thesis).
while writing this you've already answered ... ok, I'll post it for nothing)))
I have not been able to apply it to forex... If you can describe Biryukov's model (roughly).
1.I don't believe it ... all most likely ripped out of the market context (need several years (2-3 years in real life) to
)....working for half a year or so I can make dozens of them
for 5 min like anyone else on this forum ...))
2.what is the profit...for someone 20% per annum is good...
one may not know much about the market, so one must not draw conclusive conclusions... + successful traders do not write books but trade...
one does not write books but trades ...
3.That's why I think you failed... because you want to make money from the market and not from book sales...
I cannot get away from the idea that it is impossible to create a model for the ages on quotes... As for the markets, they were created to make money.
markets were created to make money...and they were not created by poor people...
Once again, people who do not belong to the poor make money... the clamour for America)))
It would be a shame to take 5-10-20 p))) and all this is accompanied by big speeches)))
The Pendeans do not feel bad about it - they took 10-20 pi out of the deal
and go home before tomorrow... but it's not noise - it's information... the next big splash of noise
could turn into a movement... it's about the model forever - although some moments
forever of course...
The plan is simpler: create a model that meets the criteria: no autocorrelation and no heteroscedasticity. Make a forecast for 1 step forward (one step is M1 or D1). Then we repeat it. So to say, adaptation.
That's how I did it... retrace at every bar...
But of course, it depends on the model (sensitivity to inputs)... it's better to hedge
and make a personal server (with quotes) so that there
quotes on the history ... otherwise you look - an out-of-market quote may have run ... but it can
hit the model and it usually does...
although the retracement approach on every bar is close to me and looks very logical...
although the trend for profit is not bad either...
better to skip the fx and use transparent markets with strong seasonality and easy-to-predict values...
easy to predict values...
although fx is interesting in its own way )))
all imho of course...
i do not have any problems with it... If i'm not too busy, describe Biryukov's model (roughly... the main thing is that he uses the model in entries)...
https://ru.wikipedia.org/wiki/Эконометрика#.D0.98.D1.81.D1.82.D0.BE.D1.80.D0.B8.D1.8F_.D1.8D.D0.BA.D0.BE.D0.BD.D0.BE.D0.BC.D0.B5.D1.82.D1.80.D0.B8.D0.BA.D0.B8
Despite its potential, econometrics has not been supported by many major economists. In the early 1970s Worswick sharply criticised econometricians for their "lack of connection with concrete facts"[2]. He argued that econometricians "are not so much concerned with inventing means of systematizing and measuring the available facts as they are with creating an incalculable multitude of pretended ways of doing so"[2]. At the same time, F. Brown argued that "the construction of time series regressions is only good for cheating". W. Leontief described econometrics as "an attempt to compensate for the conspicuous Lack of available data by the widespread use of more and more sophisticated statistical techniques". In a similar vein, Hicks said that "the importance of econometric methods in economic theory should not be exaggerated"[2]. And E. Leamer wrote that "there are two things which are better not to see: sausages and econometric estimates".
Very nice comments and strictly on point.
I have not noticed any new Leontievs among forum members. So, leaving the universal scale alone we will compare with what we have on this forum, and we have roughly the following directions:
TA
dragging of other sciences into trading - the most popular is DSP
blatant illiterate flubber.
Econometrics is not a grail and not a competitor to macroeconomic theories like Leontief, but it isthe science of measuring economic data, neither CS nor NS, nor much else that has found a place on this forum, except the science of measuring economic data!!! This is not the first time I have expressed my surprise. Why TA, exclusively intuitive indicator creation and not regressions and more? What is the reason?
Personally, I'm not interested in the world issues on which the respected people listed were speaking. I am interested in a forecast with one step forward - everything. All that you have listed does not solve this problem and the authors did not set such a task.
You're right. Experts in mathematics decided to surprise economists and econometrics was born. As soon as the economists did the maths, they found out that there is not even a formula for profit!
you are right. experts who know maths decided to surprise economists and econometrics was born.
The official birth of the word "econometrics" is considered the date of creation of the econometric society in the 30s. Before that, it was called mathematical statistics.
.... there is not even a profit formula!
That's too much.
you are right. experts who know maths decided to surprise economists and econometrics was born.
The official birth of the word "econometrics" is considered to be the date of the creation of the Econometric Society in the 1930s. Before that it was called mathematical statistics.
.... there is not even a profit formula!
This is too strong.
Bryukov applied it to forex in his book, claims to have been successful, I have not been able to apply it.
V.G. Briukov. How to predict the dollar rate
If you evaluate it in relation to verbiage under the proud name of "Technical Analysis", it's a revelation. In my opinion, it is a very primitive example of application of econometrics using Excel and EViews.