end of 2011. - Beginning of the second wave of the crisis - page 18
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If you consider yourself a wave analyst and make such depressing forecasts, you should know that you have a serious opponent, who was engaged in wave analysis, and made a name for himself on it, while you were lying in a cradle, sprinkled with talcum powder. The address of your opponent is shown on the graph, (so you do not have to worry, it is a graph with Prechter and Co markup").
Actually it's not Prechter as you called him, his last name is Prechter.
There are three books worth reading, which means anyone who wants to master Wave Theory
should study them in that order, from the simple to the complex.
1) R. Prekter, A. J. Frost "Elliott Wave Principle".
2) Robert Fisher "New methods of Fibonacci trading".
3) Glen Neely "Mastering Elliott Wave Analysis"
Could not see future targets on the chart. Marking up a historical chart after the fact is of course great!
But, unfortunately, it is impossible to trade on history. If it's not too difficult, can you tell me the targets, where do you expect the Euro to go or where does Prekter expect the Euro to go? :о)
What do official and unofficial inflation rates have to do with it?
At the beginning of 2011 buckwheat cost 12-15 roubles per 1 kg. Now in grocery chain shops buckwheat costs 75-85 roubles per kg.
The official inflation rate in Russia.
At the beginning of 2011 buckwheat cost 12-15 roubles per 1 kg. Now in grocery chain shops buckwheat costs 75-85 roubles per kg.
The official inflation rate in Russia.
Do you eat buckwheat?
If you find the opinion of Prechter, the METR of Wave Analysis, not worthy of attention, then, here is the opinion of another METR of Wave Analysis, Glenn Neely, whose system you have so ruthlessly simplified (I do not consider the reasons for this barbarism). The METR, assumes that with 22.02.2011. onthe American stock market has come 1 - 2 year tendency to fall, which will lead to POSSIBLE, significant increase in energy costs , with all the ensuing consequences, i.e. it assumes that the deflation is coming. Yes, the PPI (Producer Price Index) will change dramatically, many goods and services will become cheaper, but, you do not know the main thing, that the PPI does not cover the price of imported goods, and oil for the US is one, hence, from ignorance, you have wrong judgement, like oil10 dollars. This is nonsense. For a more detailed understanding of Glenn Neely's opinion, here is the original article. I don't think you have a problem with a foreign language, you can figure it out on your own and stop rambling.
I think you'll agree that it's not just price that plays a role in every forecast, but also the timing factor. I expect a sharp fall in oil prices to the level of $12-15 per barrel at the end of the second wave of the crisis, when all the stock indices will collapse and the demand for oil will drop by orders of magnitude. According to my calculations, the beginning of the second wave of the crisis will start at the end of 2011. The bottom, in my opinion, will be reached at the beginning of 2013. The U.S. dollar will be at its highest, and everything else, including oil, will be at its lowest.
If we look at the current situation, in terms of bp. The EUR/USD has not completed its global cycle, its end, according to my calculations, should happen at the resistance level of 1.72 - approximately in the autumn of 2011.
If the Euro continues to rise until the autumn of 2011, then oil and stock markets will also rise slightly.
Do you eat buckwheat?
Yes, including buckwheat ))
Including buckwheat ))
But the price of my mobile phone has dropped significantly over the year.
So you're saying there's deflation in the country.
From any inflation, the ones who lose are in the cache, or have a fixed income in that currency. And for the Fed the money costs the price of their production, and given that the bulk of the digital, then cheap.) So in fact it's the ordinary citizens of the country and those who hold the dough in that currency who pay for the whole banquet, and everyone else won't hurt themselves. That is why, for example, Kudrin's policy of accumulating vast amounts of foreign reserves in various currencies is very dubious. The growth of gold reserves is offset by their depreciation. Raw materials to the wind))) And how can all investment assets not become more expensive in these conditions?
I will still defend Kudran, though I am not his ardent supporter. One thing he is good at is that he is putting it all in the pile, although many insist on eating it all away.
Kubushka helped cushion the hard landing after the 1st wave of the crisis, I VERY much hope that the reserves will be enough for the country to survive the second, more global tsunami with minimal losses.
If there is no safety margin, the country will have to go to the IMF like in 1998 and take the humiliating terms with all the ensuing consequences (I immediately remember the privatization of 1998-1999).
At the beginning of 2011 buckwheat cost 12-15 rubles per 1 kg. Now in grocery chain shops buckwheat costs 75-85 roubles per kg.
The official inflation rate in Russia.
That is, the U.S. commercial bank suffers a loss in the example below due to higher prices of buckwheat in Russia?
OK, another example:
Current interest rate in the US = 0.25%. Official inflation in the USA = 1%.
Nevertheless, banks in Europe and the U.S. are lending. So it is at a loss?
the opinion of another MATERIALIST of Wave Analysis, Glenn Neely, whose system you so ruthlessly simplified (I do not consider the reasons of this barbarism).
I do not understand why it was necessary to complicate everything and to stretch my system to 450 pages.
The essence of the method of my esteemed Glenn Neely fits on just 1 page.
p.s. There is nothing complicated in Glenn Neely's approach, everything is simple as hell, but he is a true master of muddling the tracks! :))))
Who has read his book, will know what I mean
But the price of my mobile phone has dropped significantly over the year.
That's what you call deflation in the country.
I think you should just change your mobile phone ;)