EURUSD - Trends, Forecasts and Implications (Part 3) - page 988

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andreika:

he who helps people is wasting his time.

Good deeds don't make you famous (from a famous cartoon)


The more you give, the more you get, that's the law always works.
 
Mixon777:

GBP JPY breakthrough of 200 pips - you could make good money - it would be

Now it is important not to lose the bird on EUR CHF - otherwise it may shoot like GBP CHF


"Every man has his own swamp" - that's the popular wisdom! I am not going to praise my tactics, everything is obvious.
 
Grebovik:

"Every man has his own swamp" - popular wisdom! I will not praise my own tactics, I can see everything.

If you have a good TS or karma, you win the contest and get the prize, respect and admiration.
 
Strannyik:

he who helps people, he does not seek glory. the more you give, the more you receive, this law always works.

From the Bible:

"In all things, as you want people to do to you, do likewise to them.

 
Once again we would like to warn against getting carried away with the correction, which is now occurring in EUR/USD after the strong decline of the previous week and a half. Anyway, the rebound happened by itself, the "short" positions in EUR were closed, and further EUR/USD rise to 1.43-1.45 may be used by many investors for opening new sell positions in the European currency.
If we talk about the fundamental aspect, it is still rather difficult for the Euro. Firstly, there are still no details on Greece. Secondly, the EU finance ministers have started to talk aloud about a possible "soft" restructuring of the Greek state debt which presupposes the change (prolongation) of the Greek debt payments terms together with other measures like sale of state property and cutting of the state expenditures. Thirdly, there are many indications that in the coming weeks the uncertainty around the troubled European economy will remain, and any specifics will only be available closer to June 20, when the next meeting of the EU finance ministers will take place, and at the same time with the support of the EU and the IMF a report on the situation in the Greek economy will be prepared.
As far as factors supporting the single European currency are concerned, Monday's latest CPI inflation data from April in Europe suggesting a rate hike in the region in July, the ZEW index rising well above expectations in May to 91.5 points and a stream of macroeconomic statistics from the USA. In the case of America, poor manufacturing data from NY Empire State Index as well as worries about Tuesday's mediocre US housing market statistics (housing starts, building starts) might unwittingly remind investors that the Fed is yet to raise interest rates or tighten monetary policy at all, which could be momentarily negative for the dollar.
Anyway, our strategy so far is that we will consolidate at the current levels for some time in EUR/USD, or even try to go up a little bit more. However, going forward over the next few months (under the ECB meeting in June and then in July) there are risks to see the EUR/USD pair below 1.40.
 
 
I apologise for forgetting to attach a screenshot
 
And I have a question for the moderator. How many warnings are given and isn't it time to ban Mixon777 for outright rudeness?
 

Currency strategists at Danske Bank believe that although the single currency has been under strong pressure over the past month, future currency market dynamics will be determined mainly by interest differentials, which speak in favour of the euro rather than the US dollar.

Experts believe that the European authorities will not support the idea of an early restructuring of the Greek debt, which will help curb investors' worries. Moreover, Danske believes that Greece's debt problems will not prevent the ECB from continuing to tighten its monetary policy in order to fight inflation. Danske expects the European Central Bank to raise rates in July. As for the US dollar, since the Fed is unlikely to increase funding costs, its exchange rate will remain weak.

Nevertheless, the increased risk premium on the euro has caused specialists to revise the EUR/USD exchange rate forecast downwards: The 3-month forecast is from 1.50 to 1.48, the 6- and 12-month forecasts are from 1.50 and 1.40 to 1.46 and 1.38. The US currency will receive more support in the second half of the year as the second round of the Fed's quantitative easing programme, which has helped weaken the dollar, ends in June.

 

Technical analysts at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ believe that the single currency could fall to a 2-month low against the US dollar. In their view, that would happen after the euro breaks important support levels located at $1.4217 (23.6% Fibonacci recovery from the June 2010 low to the May high) and $1.4148 (38.2% recovery from the euro's rise from the January low to the May high).

The euro is currently trading in the $1.4180 area. Experts believe that the decline of the European currency will accelerate when it falls below $1.40.

According to the bank, the target level for the EUR/USD pair is at $1.3770 (38.2% recovery from the June 2010 low to the May high).

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